Padbury

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padbury reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Padbury's population is around 9,636 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,010 people (11.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,626 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,519 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 32 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,598 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padbury's 11.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 51.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilizing the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth of Australian statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,382 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 13.1% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padbury when compared nationally

Padbury has recorded around 39 residential properties granted approval each year, totalling 196 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 18 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 4.4 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $184,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. There have also been $1.2 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

Compared to Greater Perth, Padbury shows moderately higher new home approvals (38.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity consists of 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 494 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

Future projections show Padbury adding 1,265 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Padbury has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 9 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Regents Garden Padbury Residential Aged Care Facility, Harbour Rise Masterplanned Community (final stages), Chichester Park Skate Facility, and the Whitfords Activity Centre Precinct (West) Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Padbury demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Padbury has a well-educated workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.9%, and 4.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,428 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (74.6% compared to Greater Perth's 71.9%). Based on Census responses, a low 9.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. On the other hand, retail trade is under-represented, with only 7.4% of Padbury's workforce compared to 9.3% in Greater Perth. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 4.6% while labour force increased by 4.3%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.3% and labour force growth of 2.6%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Padbury. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Padbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Padbury SA2 is among the highest in Australia, with the median assessed at $61,060 while the average income stands at $80,964. This contrasts with Greater Perth's figures of a median income of $60,748 and an average income of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $66,934 (median) and $88,753 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Padbury cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 33.7% of residents (3,247 people), mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.0% occupy this bracket. Housing accounts for 14.4% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 72nd percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Padbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Padbury, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.3% houses and 7.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Padbury was well beyond that of Perth metro, at 32.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (50.4%) or rented (16.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Perth metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $390, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Padbury's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Padbury features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 77.3% of all households, comprising 35.8% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people matches the Greater Perth average.

The educational profile of Padbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Tertiary education reaches 28.8% of residents aged 15+ in Padbury. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 51 active transport stops operating within Padbury, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 9 individual routes, collectively providing 1,819 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 197 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 80%, with 13% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling. A relatively low 9.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 259 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Padbury's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Padbury, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts see low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (5,733 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.4% and 7.3% of residents, respectively, while 71.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 17.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,701 people), which is higher than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Padbury was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Padbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 11.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 32.8% born overseas. The main religion in Padbury is Christianity, which makes up 43.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Islam, which comprises 1.3% of the population, compared to 3.2% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Padbury are English, comprising 31.8% of the population, Australian, comprising 24.3% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 0.9% of Padbury (vs 0.7% regionally), South Australian at 0.9% (vs 1.0%) and New Zealand at 1.0% (vs 0.8%).

Padbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 38-year median age in Padbury is close to Greater Perth's average of 37 and equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Perth, Padbury has a higher concentration of 35 - 44 residents (17.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (10.8%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.5% to 6.3% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.5% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.1% to 10.8% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.2% to 9.4%. By 2041, Padbury is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 65% (396 people), reaching 1,007 from 610. Meanwhile, both the 5 to 14 and 35 to 44 age groups will see reduced numbers.