Padbury

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padbury reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Padbury stands at approximately 9,724 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,098 individuals (12.7%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 8,626 residents. This shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 9,714 alongside 33 validated new addresses identified since the Census. Consequently, the local population density is 1,612 persons per square kilometer, a figure that sits above the typical average for national locations monitored by AreaSearch. The expansion rate of 12.7% since the 2021 census outpaced the national benchmark of 9.3% as well as the broader SA3 region, positioning the locality as a leader in regional growth. The main driver of this population increase was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 50.8% of the total gains in recent times, though natural increase and interstate arrivals also registered positive contributions.

For each SA2 locality, AreaSearch applies the 2024 projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia, using 2022 as their baseline. In instances where SA2 territories lack this specific data, or to project expansion beyond 2032, growth rates categorized by age cohort from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region forecasts (published in 2023 from 2022 records) are implemented. Looking at demographic trajectories, future growth is expected to exceed the median for Australian statistical areas, with a projected increase of 1,301 residents by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP data, amounting to a 13.3% total rise over the 16-year timeframe.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padbury when compared nationally

Padbury averages approximately 39 residential building approvals per year, with a total of 196 homes approved across the prior 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and an additional 22 recorded during FY-26 so far. With an average of 4.8 new residents added for each home constructed over those 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), the volume of supply remains well below demand, a condition that typically intensifies buyer competition and exerts upward pressure on prices, even as new dwellings average a construction value of $184,000—a level below regional averages that provides more budget-friendly alternatives for buyers. Furthermore, commercial building approvals reached $1.2 million during the current financial year, highlighting the predominantly residential character of the suburb.

In comparison to Greater Perth, Padbury displays a moderately elevated level of new residential approvals, tracking 39.0% above the regional per capita average over the 5-year timeframe, which helps preserve choice for buyers while backing demand for current properties, despite a recent slowdown in building velocity. Of the new construction permits, 95.0% consist of detached houses and 5.0% comprise townhouses or apartments, preserving the classic suburban aesthetic focused on spacious family living. The ratio of residents to each building approval is roughly 507 people, which is indicative of a mature, settled community.

Based on the most recent quarterly projections from AreaSearch, Padbury is anticipated to add 1,291 residents by 2041. Although local construction activity matches these long-term expansion estimates, purchasing parties may face heightened competition as the resident population expands.

Padbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and urban planning decisions are key factors in regional progress, and AreaSearch has identified 10 projects poised to affect this locality. Principal initiatives include the Regents Garden Padbury Residential Aged Care Facility, the Westfield Whitford City Expansion, the Whitfords Activity Centre Precinct (West) Redevelopment, and the concluding stages of the Harbour Rise Masterplanned Community, with details of the most significant works listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Padbury demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

The local workforce is characterized by high levels of education, strong representation in essential services, an unemployment rate of only 3.0%, and a 3.9% increase in estimated employment over the prior year. In March 2026, the employed resident count reached 5,467, with the unemployment rate remaining 1.2% lower than the Greater Perth metric of 4.2%, while labor force participation registered at a typical 73.3% versus 70.2% across Greater Perth. Census records indicate that only a small portion of the workforce (9.0%) operated from home, though this figure may be influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The community shows a notable concentration in the construction sector, where the employment share is 1.5 times the broader regional benchmark. Conversely, the retail trade sector is underrepresented, employing only 7.4% of the local workforce compared to 9.3% across Greater Perth. The heavily residential nature of the locality means it offers relatively few jobs within its borders, as demonstrated by the imbalance between the locally working Census population and the resident workforce.

AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics shows that for the 12 months ending March 2026, the number of employed residents grew by 3.9% and the total labor force grew by 3.8%, which maintained a stable unemployment rate. By comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 2.0% and labor force growth of 2.5%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment projections released in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia help illuminate potential future requirements for Padbury. These five-year and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future expansion. Globally, national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but rates vary widely by industry. Applying these industry-specific rates to the local employment distribution suggests that local employment would grow by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate local population forecasts).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode-level taxation statistics from the ATO for financial year 2023 indicate that incomes in the Padbury SA2 are among the highest nationwide, with a median of $61,060 and an average of $80,964. For comparison, Greater Perth recorded a median of $60,748 and an average of $80,248. Adjusted for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.93% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 would be roughly $67,734 for the median and $89,813 for the average. The 2021 Census placed the personal, household, and family earnings of the suburb around the 69th percentile nationally. Income distribution figures show the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is the largest, containing 33.7% of residents (3,276 people), which closely aligns with the metropolitan rate of 32.0%. Housing costs consume 14.4% of earnings, while strong household income places the area in the 72nd percentile for disposable funds, and its SEIFA income score falls in the 7th decile.

Padbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the latest Census, residential structures in Padbury were dominated by standalone houses at 92.3%, with other options (townhouses, apartments, and alternative structures) making up 7.6%, compared to the metropolitan Perth split of 77.8% houses and 22.1% alternative dwellings. Home ownership in the suburb was substantially higher than the Perth metropolitan average at 32.8%, with the remaining properties occupied by mortgage holders (50.4%) or tenants (16.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area stood at $2,000, which is higher than the Perth metropolitan average of $1,907, while the median weekly rent was $390, compared to the regional figure of $350. Nationally, Padbury's mortgage commitments exceed the Australian median of $1,863, and rent levels are also above the national benchmark of $375.

Padbury features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Families make up the vast majority of households at 77.3%, consisting of couples with children at 35.8%, couples without children at 28.2%, and single parents at 12.1%. Non-family households represent the remaining 22.7% of the total, with single-person living arrangements at 20.2% and group houses at 2.4%. The median size of local households is 2.6 people, which is identical to the average across Greater Perth.

The educational profile of Padbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Higher education qualifications are held by 28.8% of Padbury residents aged 15+. Bachelor degrees are the most common credential at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.9% and graduate diplomas at 3.3%. Vocational and technical capabilities are also highly prevalent, with 39.0% of the population aged 15 and over possessing vocational qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

There is a high level of educational enrollment in the suburb, with 28.2% of the population currently engaged in study. This group is composed of 10.4% in primary schools, 7.6% in high schools, and 4.4% in tertiary education programs.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport options reveals 51 operational transit stops within Padbury, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 9 separate bus routes, which support 1,819 passenger journeys on a weekly basis. Accessibility is rated as highly favorable, with residents living an average of 197 meters from their nearest transit stop. Given the suburban residential character, the majority of working residents travel outside the suburb for employment, with cars remaining the main transit mode at 80%, followed by train travel at 13%. Households own an average of 1.6 vehicles. A small proportion of 9.0% of the workforce worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.

Transit service patterns show an average of 259 daily journeys across the network, which translates to roughly 35 passenger trips per week at each individual stop.

Padbury's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health indicators demonstrate very favorable results throughout Padbury, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the occurrence of long-term health issues, with younger age groups showing a minimal incidence of common medical conditions, while the rate of private health insurance is exceptionally high at roughly 60% of the population (5,785 people).

The most frequent health issues reported by local residents were mental health conditions and asthma, affecting 7.4% and 7.3% of the population, respectively, while 71.9% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, matching the 71.9% average across Greater Perth. Health trends among residents under 65 are stronger than the typical average. Residents aged 65 and older make up 17.1% of the population (1,661 people), and while health profiles for this older cohort are better than average, they score lower relative to the nation than the younger segments of the suburb.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Padbury was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Compared to most local property markets, Padbury exhibits a higher level of cultural diversity, with 11.2% of the community using a non-English language at home and 32.8% born outside of Australia. Christianity is the predominant religious affiliation, representing 43.5% of local residents. The most pronounced deviation from regional norms is found in the representation of Islam, which accounts for 1.3% of the local population, compared to 3.2% across Greater Perth.

Regarding parental country of birth, the three largest ancestry groups in the suburb are English at 31.8%, Australian at 24.3%, and Irish at 9.2%. Some specific ethnic heritages show notable differences in representation, with Welsh origins accounting for 0.9% of Padbury (compared to 0.7% across the region), South Australian at 0.9% (compared to 1.0%), and New Zealand ancestry at 1.0% (compared to 0.8%).

Padbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age of 38 years in Padbury is comparable to the Greater Perth average of 37 and matches the national median of 38. Compared to Greater Perth, the suburb has a larger portion of residents aged 35 to 44 (17.4%) but a smaller portion aged 25 to 34 (11.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the representation of the 15 to 24 age bracket has risen from 9.5% to 11.3%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has expanded from 4.5% to 6.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age bracket decreased from 11.2% to 9.4%, and the 25 to 34 group declined from 13.1% to 11.5%. By 2041, the demographic profile of the suburb is expected to shift, led by a 65% increase (383 people) in the 75 to 84 cohort, growing from 590 to 974. Over the same period, both the 5 to 14 and 35 to 44 age categories are expected to contract.