Padbury
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padbury reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padbury's population is 9,526 as of Aug 2025. This shows an increase of 900 people (10.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,626. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 9,519 in June 2024 and 31 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,579 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Padbury's growth rate of 10.4% since the 2021 census exceeds the national average (8.6%) and that of its SA3 area, indicating it is a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 51.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate post-2032 growth, AreaSearch utilises ABS's growth rates by age cohort from its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future demographic trends project above median population growth for Australian statistical areas. By 2041, Padbury is expected to expand by 1,382 persons, an increase of 14.4% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padbury when compared nationally

Padbury has recorded approximately 50 residential properties granted approval each year. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 253 approvals across the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, with seven approvals so far in FY26. On average, 4.4 new residents have been added per year for every home built over these five financial years. This supply is substantially lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $401,000, aligned with broader regional development. Additionally, $1.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Perth, Padbury shows moderately higher new home approvals, 39.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period from FY20 to FY25, offering reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

However, building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location currently has approximately 494 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Future projections show Padbury adding 1,375 residents by 2041. Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Padbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Chichester Park Community Sporting Facility, Mitchell Freeway Smart Technology Upgrade, Chichester Park Skate Facility, and Ocean Reef Marina Residential Lots Stage 1. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Padbury shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Padbury's workforce is well-educated with strong representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate stands at 2.9%, lower than the national average of 3.9%.

In the past year, ending June 2025, employment growth was estimated at 4.2%. As of that date, 5,316 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Perth's rate. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Perth's at 68.9%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, particularly construction which has an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Retail trade is under-represented with only 7.4% of Padbury's workforce compared to Greater Perth's 9.3%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.2% while labour force grew by 4.0%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth's employment growth was 3.7%. State-wide in WA, employment contracted by 0.82% to Sep-25, losing 14,590 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. National unemployment stands at 4.5%, with national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May 2025 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Padbury's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that median income in Padbury is $58,714 and average income stands at $78,500. This contrasts with Greater Perth's median income of $58,380 and average income of $78,020. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Padbury would be approximately $65,531 (median) and $87,614 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Padbury cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.7% of residents (3,210 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, mirroring metropolitan Perth at 32.0%. Housing accounts for 14.4% of income and strong earnings place residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Padbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Padbury, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Perth metro's 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padbury stood at 32.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.4% and rented ones at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, below Perth metro's average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Padbury was $390, compared to Perth metro's $400. Nationally, Padbury's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Padbury features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.3% of all households, including 35.8% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Padbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Tertiary education reaches 28.8% of residents aged 15+ in Padbury. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.0% of residents holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education. Padbury has a network of 8 schools educating approximately 1,649 students, serving distinct age groups with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1046).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padbury has 52 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 9 different routes that together facilitate 1,817 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 197 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 259 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padbury is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padbury demonstrates above-average health outcomes.

Both young and old age cohorts have a low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (5,601 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.4 and 7.3% of residents respectively. Seventy-one point nine percent of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.5% across Greater Perth. The area has 17.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,630 people), which is lower than the 20.1% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Padbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padbury's cultural diversity was evident with 11.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home, and 32.8% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Padbury, representing 43.5% of its population. Notably, Islam was overrepresented compared to Greater Perth, comprising 1.3% versus 0.9%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.8%), Australian (24.3%), and Irish (9.2%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Welsh were overrepresented at 0.9% in Padbury compared to 1.1% regionally, South African at 0.9% versus 1.8%, and New Zealand at 1.0% versus 0.9%.

Padbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Padbury is 38 years, closely matching Greater Perth's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Perth, Padbury has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (17.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.3%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the population aged 75-84 grew from 4.5% to 6.0%, while the 35-44 age group increased from 16.3% to 17.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group decreased from 13.1% to 11.3%, and the 55-64 age group fell from 11.2% to 9.5%. By 2041, Padbury's population is projected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 78% (440 people), reaching 1,007 from 566. Meanwhile, both the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are projected to decrease in number.