Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine

Population growth drivers in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

According to investigations by AreaSearch, the population of Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine stands at approximately 24,757 in May 2026. This indicates a rise of 2,155 residents (9.5%) relative to the 2021 Census, when 22,602 people were recorded. This adjustment is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 24,578 and 236 validated new addresses registered after the Census. Consequently, the local density stands at 1,757 persons per square kilometer, a figure that sits higher than the typical result across national locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The expansion of 9.5% since the 2021 census outstripped the countrywide benchmark of 9.3%, positioning the locality as a regional leader in population growth. This upward trajectory was almost entirely powered by arrivals from overseas, which acted as the solitary driver of population increases in the latest periods.

Projections from ABS/Geoscience Australia published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline are implemented by AreaSearch for each SA2 region. In instances where these datasets are unavailable, and to calculate expansion in the years after 2032, growth metrics by age segment from the recent Greater Capital Region projections of the ABS (published in 2023, utilizing 2022 numbers) are applied. Looking ahead, the locality is set to experience population expansion that exceeds the national median for statistical areas, with a projected rise of 3,446 individuals to 2041 relative to the latest annual ERP statistics, representing a total increase of 13.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Approximately 80 residential approvals are granted in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine annually, summing to 401 residences over the preceding 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, there have been 377 approvals documented. With an average of 3.7 additional occupants yearly for each completed home during the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, demand outpaces supply by a wide margin, which commonly triggers upward pressure on prices and heightens rivalry among buyers. Meanwhile, newly constructed dwellings carry an average estimated value of $440,000, showing that developers are prioritizing the higher-end market with premium builds. Furthermore, commercial approvals worth $54.7 million have been logged during this financial year, showing robust development activity in the business sector.

Compared to Greater Perth, the rate of new home approvals per capita in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is roughly three-quarters as high, placing it in the 43rd percentile of all locations analyzed nationwide, which translates to fewer options for purchasers and sustains demand for established homes. This also falls short of the national average, indicating a mature suburb and pointing toward possible regulatory bottlenecks. The mix of new construction is divided between 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or multi-unit buildings, preserving the residential character of the neighborhood with a focus on larger dwellings for families. The area records about 388 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a settled residential community.

Long-term forecasts point to Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine adding 3,267 residents by 2041, according to the most recent quarterly projections from AreaSearch. If building activity remains at its current pace, the addition of new housing could fall short of population gains, which is likely to escalate buyer rivalry and support rising home values.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and planning policy changes play a significant role in shaping the performance of a suburb. AreaSearch has tracked a total of 29 projects that are likely to influence this locality. Among these major works are West Village, the Karrinyup Bus Depot Transformation, the Stirling City Centre Sports Precinct, and the Bold Park Community Facilities Upgrade, with the following list highlighting the developments of greatest significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

The local labor pool in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is highly qualified, showing significant concentration in professional services, alongside a minimal unemployment rate of 1.4% and an estimated annual job growth of 3.6%. As of March 2026, employed residents numbered 13,503, while the jobless rate was 2.8% below the Greater Perth average of 4.2%. Participation in the labor force is similar to the 70.2% recorded across Greater Perth. According to Census replies, a minor share of 13.2% of the workforce operated from home, though this period was influenced by COVID-19 containment measures.

Jobs among local residents are heavily clustered in health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The professional & technical sector is highly represented locally, employing staff at 1.5 times the regional average rate. In contrast, manufacturing has a minimal footprint, accounting for 3.2% of jobs compared to 5.5% across the wider region. This predominantly residential suburb generates few local jobs, as highlighted by comparing the count of local workers against the employed resident population in the Census.

AreaSearch evaluations of SALM and ABS statistics indicate that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the employed population expanded by 3.6% and the overall labor force grew by 3.8%, which caused the jobless rate to edge up by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Perth experienced a 2.0% increase in jobs, a 2.5% expansion of the labor pool, and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment projections released in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context regarding prospective demand in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine. These projections, spanning five and ten-year periods, are compared against the local employment profile to model potential patterns. Across the nation, total employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sectors will grow at very different rates. Applying these industry forecasts directly to the job profile of Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine suggests local employment could expand by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, representing a simple weighted model for illustration that does not incorporate specific local population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Taxpayer income levels in the Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine SA2 are exceptionally high by national standards, based on recent ATO datasets compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income of taxpayers in the Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine SA2 is $67,841 and the average income is $96,585, which contrasts with Greater Perth figures of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year 2023, present estimates are approximately $75,256 for the median and $107,142 for the average as of March 2026. According to the Census, household, family, and individual incomes all rank highly, placing between the 76th and 90th percentiles nationally. Looking at the distribution, the $4,000+ weekly bracket is the largest, containing 28.3% of residents (7,006 people), which differs from the wider region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is the most common at 32.0%. A large proportion of 42.4% earn more than $3,000 weekly, pointing to wealthy pockets that support local business activity. After paying for housing, households retain 87.4% of their income, demonstrating strong disposable income, and the SEIFA index for income places the area in the 9th decile.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

An analysis of residential structures in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine at the time of the latest Census showed that detached houses made up 86.1% of the total, with semi-detached dwellings, apartments, and other configurations accounting for the remaining 13.9%, compared to 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings across the Perth metropolitan area. Home ownership was significantly higher than the Perth metropolitan average, standing at 42.8%, while the remaining properties were mortgaged (43.3%) or rented (13.9%). The median mortgage payment of $2,500 per month was substantially above the Perth metropolitan average of $1,907, and the median weekly rent was $460 compared to $350 in the wider metro area. By national standards, mortgage payments are much higher than the Australian median of $1,863, and rent prices are also well above the national median of $375.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family units are the dominant household type at 79.6%, consisting of 43.2% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 7.4% single parent families. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 20.4%, with single-person households representing 18.4% and group shared homes making up 2.0%. The median household occupancy is 2.8 persons, which is larger than the Greater Perth median of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The level of education in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is significantly higher than broader benchmarks, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees, compared to 27.9% in WA and 29.0% in the surrounding SA4 region. This educational profile leaves the suburb well positioned to benefit from knowledge-intensive industries. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 28.8%, followed by postgraduate degrees (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Vocational and technical training is also highly represented, with 28.0% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (16.4%).

Enrolment in education is remarkably high, with 30.1% of local residents actively participating in formal study. This student population includes 11.1% in primary school, 9.3% in secondary school, and 5.0% enrolled in tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport reveals 139 active stops in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 12 distinct routes, which provide 1,756 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is rated as good, with residents living an average of 222 meters from the nearest stop. Because the suburb is mostly residential, most workers commute out of the area. Private vehicles remain the primary mode of travel at 81%, with 12% utilizing trains. Households own an average of 1.7 vehicles, which is higher than the regional average. A relatively low 13.2% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

Services run at an average frequency of 250 trips per day across all routes, which corresponds to roughly 12 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest stops relative to the center of the area.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

An assessment of health indicators reveals strong outcomes throughout Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine. According to AreaSearch data on mortality and long-term illnesses, chronic conditions are rare among the general public and close to national averages for older, vulnerable age groups. Furthermore, private health insurance uptake is exceptionally high, covering roughly 70% of the population (17,255 people), which compares to 59.0% in Greater Perth and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 7.5 and 6.6% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 71.2% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The working-age cohort exhibits high levels of health and low rates of illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 22.1% of the population (5,471 people), which is higher than the 16.1% average in Greater Perth. Health status among seniors is above average, although it ranks lower nationally than the general local population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine displays higher cultural diversity than average, with 12.6% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 29.2% born outside Australia. Christianity is the main religion, followed by 51.1% of the population. The most prominent religious overrepresentation relative to the broader metro area is Judaism, which accounts for 0.2% of the local population compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestral backgrounds, the three largest groups in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine are English at 29.7%, Australian at 23.7%, and Irish at 8.4%. There are also distinct concentrations of other backgrounds, with South Australian backgrounds representing 1.3% of the population (compared to 1.0% across the region), Croatian at 1.2% (compared to 0.8% regionally), and Welsh at 0.8% (compared to 0.7% regionally).

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age of 42 years in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is significantly higher than the Greater Perth median of 37 and the national median of 38 years. The 75 - 84 age bracket is highly represented at 8.7% compared to Greater Perth, while the 25 - 34 bracket is less common at 7.5%. Post-2021 Census data indicates the 15 to 24 demographic expanded from 10.5% to 12.5% of the population, and the 75 to 84 cohort grew from 7.2% to 8.7%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 group shrank from 6.2% to 4.7% and the 65 to 74 demographic fell from 11.0% to 9.7%. Demographic projections for 2041 point to major shifts, led by the 85+ bracket which is expected to expand by 124% (1,147 people) to reach 2,076 from 928. Overall, cohorts aged 65 and above are projected to account for 59% of all population growth, highlighting the aging profile of the area, whereas the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 brackets are projected to experience population decreases.