Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine

Population growth drivers in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's population is around 24,912 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,310 people (10.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,602 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,375 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 191 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,768 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's 10.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 66.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth of national areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,809 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 13.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine has experienced around 80 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 401 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 96 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 4.5 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new homes are being built at an average value of $440,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $54.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Perth, Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 42nd percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties. This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New development consists of 75.0% detached dwellings and 25.0% townhouse or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 385 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

Future projections show Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine adding 3,272 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 29 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include West Village, Karrinyup Bus Depot Transformation, Stirling City Centre Sports Precinct, and Bold Park Community Facilities Upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.3%, and 4.2% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 13,412 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.8% below Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (69.2% compared to Greater Perth's 71.9%). Based on Census responses, a low 13.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Meanwhile, manufacturing has a limited presence with 3.2% employment compared to 5.5% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 4.2% while the labour force increased by 4.1%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Greater Perth, where employment rose by 2.3%, the labour force grew by 2.6%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine SA2's income level is exceptionally high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine SA2's median income among taxpayers is $67,841 and the average income stands at $96,585, which compares to figures for Greater Perth's of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $74,367 (median) and $105,876 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine, between the 76th and 90th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $4000+ bracket dominates with 28.3% of residents (7,050 people), diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.0%. A significant 42.4% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 86.1% houses and 13.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine was well beyond that of Perth metro, at 42.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (43.3%) or rented (13.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Perth metro average at $2,500, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $460, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 79.6% of all households, comprising 43.2% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 7.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 27.9% in WA and 29.0% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 28.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (16.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.1% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 139 active transport stops operating within Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 12 individual routes, collectively providing 1,756 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 222 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 81%, with 12% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 13.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 250 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and near the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (17,363 people), compared to 59.0% across Greater Perth and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.5% and 6.6% of residents, respectively, while 71.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (5,677 people), which is higher than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 12.6% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 29.2% born overseas. The main religion in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is Christianity, which makes up 51.1% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.2% of the population, compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine are English, comprising 29.7% of the population, Australian, comprising 23.7% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: South Australian is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine (vs 1.0% regionally), Croatian at 1.2% (vs 0.8%) and Welsh at 0.8% (vs 0.7%).

Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine is significantly above Greater Perth's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 75 - 84 age group shows strong representation at 8.9% compared to Greater Perth, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.5% to 12.4% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 7.2% to 8.9%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort has declined from 6.2% to 5.0% and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 11.0% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 123% (1,255 people), reaching 2,277 from 1,021. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 61% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.