Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census the suburb of Duncraig's population is estimated at around 17,646 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,664 people (10.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,982 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 17,630, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 74 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,297 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. the suburb of Duncraig's 10.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.3%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 1,875 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 10.5% in total over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Duncraig has seen around 46 new homes approved per year, totalling an estimated 230 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 26 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 5.5 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $530,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Also, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Compared to Greater Perth, Duncraig shows 13.0% lower construction activity (per person) while it places among the 33rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 82.0% standalone homes and 18.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 499 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

Future projections show Duncraig adding 1,859 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Duncraig has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total 14 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Duncraig Adventure Hub, Hepburn Avenue Upgrade - Lilburne to Walter Padbury, and 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, with the below list detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Duncraig rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Duncraig features a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.7%, and 3.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 9,619 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.5% below Greater Perth's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Perth's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a low 12.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical. The area demonstrates particularly notable concentration in professional & technical, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. In contrast, transport, postal & warehousing employs just 2.4% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 4.7%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, aggregated from broader statistical areas, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 3.8% alongside labour force increasing by 3.8%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.0% and labour force growth of 2.5%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Duncraig. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Duncraig's income level is among the highest in Australia according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The suburb of Duncraig's median income among taxpayers is $61,044 and the average income stands at $82,703, which compares to figures for Greater Perth's of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,716 (median) and $91,742 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Duncraig, between the 73rd and 87th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the largest segment comprises 27.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,817 residents), mirroring the surrounding region where 32.0% occupy this bracket. A significant 40.0% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Duncraig, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Duncraig was well beyond that of Perth metro, at 42.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (45.5%) or rented (12.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Perth metro average at $2,208, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $460, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Duncraig's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 81.8% of all households, comprising 43.4% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.2%, with lone person households at 16.6% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (37.7% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the WA average of 27.9% and that of SA4 region (29.0%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 83 active transport stops operating within Duncraig comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1,387 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 76%, with 16% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional average. A relatively low 12.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 198 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Duncraig's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Duncraig, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups , and the rate of private health cover found to be exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (10,592 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4 and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 72.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,793 people), which is higher than the 16.1% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Duncraig was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 11.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 33.7% born overseas. The main religion in Duncraig was found to be Christianity, which makes up 48.4% of people in Duncraig. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Duncraig are English, comprising 31.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 23.4% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Duncraig (vs 0.7% regionally), South Australian at 1.8% (vs 1.0%) and Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.5%).

Duncraig's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Duncraig is significantly above Greater Perth's average of 37 similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 5 - 14 age group shows strong representation at 15.4% compared to Greater Perth, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 6.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.7% to 13.9% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 6.2% to 8.3%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.6% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.1% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Duncraig. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 169% (773 people), reaching 1,232 from 458. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 64% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.