Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Duncraig's estimated population is around 17,456. This reflects a 9.2% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 15,982 people. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 17,263 by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024) and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,272 persons per square kilometer, higher than average national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Duncraig has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 82% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises ABS's Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Future population dynamics anticipate a median national statistical area increase by 2041, with Duncraig expected to expand by 1,991 persons reflecting a total gain of 10.3% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Duncraig had around 46 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 230 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. In FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded so far. On average, 5.4 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand outpacing supply.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $530,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $7.7 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Perth, Duncraig shows 12.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally, suggesting constrained buyer choice and interest in existing dwellings. New building activity comprises 82.0% standalone homes and 18.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

Duncraig has approximately 488 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Future projections estimate Duncraig will add 1,798 residents by 2041 (based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Duncraig has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment, and Duncraig Adventure Hub. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Duncraig rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Duncraig has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.6% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.7%.

As of September 2025, 9456 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.3%, below Greater Perth's 4.0%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Perth at 65.2%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, the latter being particularly notable with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Transport, postal & warehousing employs only 2.4% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 4.7%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. From September 2024 to September 2025, employment increased by 3.7% and labour force by 3.5%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth had employment growth of 2.9% and labour force growth of 3.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows WA employment contracted by 0.27%, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, compared to the national rate of 4.3% and national employment growth of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's projections forecast national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary by industry sector. Applying these projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Duncraig had one of the highest income levels in Australia according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $61,044 and the average income stood at $82,703. These figures compared to Greater Perth's median income of $60,748 and average income of $80,248 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $66,916 (median) and $90,659 (average). Census data showed that household, family, and personal incomes in Duncraig ranked highly nationally, between the 73rd and 87th percentiles. The earnings profile indicated that the largest segment comprised 27.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (4,765 residents), similar to the surrounding region where 32.0% fell into this bracket. Notably, 40.0% earned above $3,000 weekly, reflecting areas of prosperity that contributed to robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retained 88.0% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Duncraig, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Perth metropolitan area had 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duncraig stood at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.5% and rented dwellings at 12.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,208, above Perth metro's average of $2,080. Median weekly rent in Duncraig was $460, compared to Perth metro's $400. Nationally, Duncraig's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as at 30 June 2021, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 during the same period.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.8% of all households, including 43.4% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.2%, with lone person households at 16.6% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.7.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 37.7%, higher than the Western Australian average of 27.9%. This rate exceeds that of its statistical area level four region at 29.0%. The community's emphasis on higher education is reflected in these figures.

Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.9% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with vocational credentials held by 31.8% of residents aged 15+. Advanced diplomas account for 12.3% and certificates for 19.5%. Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 83 active stops in Duncraig, all bus services. Six routes operate here, offering 1,387 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport access is good, with residents usually 202 meters from the nearest stop.

Average daily service frequency is 198 trips across all routes, about 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Duncraig is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Duncraig shows above-average health outcomes with both young and old age groups having low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population of 10,478 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 72.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.5% across Greater Perth. The area has 21.8% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling 3,805 people, which is higher than the 20.1% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Duncraig was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig, surveyed between 2016-2021, had a higher linguistic diversity than most local markets with 11.1% of residents speaking languages other than English at home. Overseas-born population in Duncraig was 33.7%. Christianity dominated religious demographics, comprising 48.4%, while Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.1%.

Top ancestral groups were English (31.6%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (8.4%). Notable ethnic group representations included Welsh (1.1%), South African (1.8%), and Dutch (1.8%), each being similar or slightly higher than regional averages.

Duncraig's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Duncraig is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years, and older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 8.5% of the population in Duncraig, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 6.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 13.1%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 6.2% to 8.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 11.1% to 9.8%, and the 65-74 group has fallen from 12.2% to 10.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Duncraig. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 199% (from 418 to 1,253 people), leading the demographic shift. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 68% of total population growth, reflecting Duncraig's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 65-74 and 0-4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.