Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Duncraig is around 17,310. This reflects an increase of 1,328 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,982. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 17,263 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,253 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Duncraig has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch utilises the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected. The suburb is projected to expand by 1,991 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 11.2% in total over the 17 years based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Duncraig has averaged around 46 new home approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 230 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 5.4 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built. This demand outpaces supply, potentially driving up prices and increasing buyer competition.

The average construction value of new homes is $530,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting Duncraig's residential character. Compared to Greater Perth, Duncraig has 12.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing dwellings. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New building activity consists of 82.0% standalone homes and 18.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining Duncraig's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 488 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections estimate Duncraig will add 1,944 residents by 2041, maintaining a reasonable pace of construction growth despite increasing competition among buyers as the population grows.

Duncraig has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment, and Duncraig Adventure Hub. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Duncraig rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Duncraig has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 1.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.1%.

As of June 2025, 9,483 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.2% lower than Greater Perth's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Perth's 65.2%. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Duncraig has a notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

In contrast, transport, postal & warehousing employs only 2.4% of local workers, lower than Greater Perth's 4.7%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.1% while labour force increased by 4.0%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In comparison, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 3.7% and labour force growth of 3.8%, with a 0.1 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Duncraig's median income among taxpayers was $61,044 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $82,703 during the same period. These figures are higher than those for Greater Perth, which were $58,380 and $78,020 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, estimated median income would be approximately $69,712 by September 2025, with average income projected to reach around $94,447 during the same period. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Duncraig rank between the 73rd and 87th percentiles nationally. The largest segment of earners comprises 27.3% earning between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly, with a total of 4,725 residents falling into this bracket. Notably, 40.0% of residents earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting areas of prosperity that contribute to robust local economic activity. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Duncraig, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Perth metro had 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duncraig was at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.5% and rented ones at 12.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,208, higher than Perth metro's average of $2,080. Median weekly rent in Duncraig was $460, compared to Perth metro's $400. Nationally, Duncraig's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.8% of all households, including 43.4% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.2%, with lone person households at 16.6% and group households making up 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.7.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational qualification rates are notably high, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, surpassing both the WA average of 27.9% and the SA4 region average of 29.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 12.3% and certificates for 19.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education. Duncraig operates a robust network of 7 schools educating approximately 5,961 students, with above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1096). The educational mix includes 4 primary, 2 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. As an education hub, Duncraig offers 34.4 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 19.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Duncraig has 82 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. Six different routes service these stops, together offering 1,385 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport is rated as good, with residents on average located 202 meters from their nearest stop.

Each day, there are an average of 197 trips across all routes, which equates to about 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Duncraig is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Duncraig shows above-average health outcomes with both younger and older residents experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (10,391 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 7.0% of residents respectively. A total of 72.0% of residents report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to 71.5% across Greater Perth. Duncraig has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.8% (3,773 people), compared to the 20.1% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Duncraig was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig's population showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 11.1% speaking a language other than English at home and 33.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Duncraig, accounting for 48.4% of its population. Notably, Judaism had an overrepresentation in Duncraig at 0.1%, compared to Greater Perth's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (8.4%). Other ethnic groups showed notable differences: Welsh was equally represented at 1.1% in both Duncraig and the region, South African was similarly at 1.8%, and Dutch was slightly higher at 1.8% compared to Greater Perth's 1.7%.

Duncraig hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Duncraig is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.5% of the population in Duncraig, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 6.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 13.1%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 6.2% to 8.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 11.1% to 9.8%, and the 65-74 group has dropped from 12.2% to 10.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Duncraig, with the 85+ age group projected to grow by 202%, reaching 1,253 people from 415. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 67% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.