Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Analysis of ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation indicates that, as of Feb 2026, Duncraig's estimated population is around 17,456. This reflects a growth of 1,474 people (9.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,982. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 17,263 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,272 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade (2016-2026), Duncraig has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and post-2032 estimations, AreaSearch utilises growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population dynamics anticipate a median national statistical area increase, with Duncraig expected to expand by 1,991 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 10.3% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Duncraig had approximately 46 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 230 homes. As of FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5.4 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. New homes are constructed at an average value of $530,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Perth, Duncraig has 12.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice favouring existing dwellings. This activity reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 82.0% standalone homes and 18.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining Duncraig's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

The location has approximately 488 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections estimate Duncraig will add 1,798 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction maintains a reasonable pace with projected growth; however, buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Duncraig has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment, and Duncraig Adventure Hub.

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Employment conditions in Duncraig rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Duncraig has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 1.6% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%.

This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. There were 9,456 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 2.3% lower than Greater Perth's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Perth's 71.6%. According to Census responses, only 12.4% of residents worked from home.

Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. The area had a notably high concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. In contrast, transport, postal & warehousing employed only 2.4% of local workers, lower than Greater Perth's 4.7%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 3.7% alongside labour force increasing by 3.5%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.9% and labour force growth of 3.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Duncraig had one of the highest income levels in Australia according to AreaSearch data based on ATO figures from financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $61,044 and the average income stood at $82,703, compared to Greater Perth's median of $60,748 and average of $80,248 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $66,916 and the average $90,659, assuming a 9.62% increase from financial year 2023. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Duncraig rank highly nationally, between the 73rd and 87th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 27.3% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (4,765 residents), similar to the surrounding region where 32.0% fall into this bracket. Notably, 40.0% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting areas of prosperity that contribute to robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Duncraig, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Perth metropolitan area's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duncraig stood at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.5% and rented ones at 12.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,208, higher than Perth metro's average of $1,907. Median weekly rent in Duncraig was $460, compared to Perth metro's $350. Nationally, Duncraig's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.8% of all households, including 43.4% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 18.2%, comprising 16.6% lone person households and 1.7% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, higher than the Greater Perth average of 2.6 people.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 37.7% among residents aged 15+, surpassing both the WA average of 27.9% and the SA4 region average of 29.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.3% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Duncraig has 83 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by six routes that facilitate 1,387 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents usually located 202 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 76%, while 16% use trains. Vehicle ownership stands at an average of 1.7 per dwelling, surpassing the regional norm.

Only 12.4% of residents work from home (as per the 2021 Census; potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions). On average, there are 198 trips daily across all routes, translating to about 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Duncraig's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Duncraig, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence (very low prevalence across all age groups).

Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (10,478 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 72.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Duncraig has 22.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,892 people), higher than Greater Perth's 16.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Duncraig was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig, surveyed in Aug 2016, had 11.1% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas were 33.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion at 48.4%.

Judaism, at 0.1%, was overrepresented compared to Greater Perth's 0.3%. Top ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (8.4%). Welsh (1.1%) South African (1.8%), and Dutch (1.8%) were notably more prevalent than regionally.

Duncraig's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Duncraig is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up 8.8% of the population in Duncraig, compared to a lower percentage in Greater Perth. Conversely, the 25-34 age group constitutes only 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 13.5%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 6.2% to 8.8%. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 7.4% to 6.0%, and the 65 to 74 group has fallen from 12.2% to 10.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Duncraig, with the 85+ age group expected to grow by 166% (adding 781 people), reaching a total of 1,253 from its current figure of 471. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 66% of the total population growth, reflecting Duncraig's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.