Lurnea

Population growth drivers in Lurnea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Lurnea statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 10,747 as of November 2025. This is an increase of 690 people from the 2021 Census figure of 10,057. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of a resident population of 10,703 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 72 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 4,298 persons per square kilometer, placing Lurnea in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Lurnea has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1.5%, outperforming the metropolitan area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods in the Lurnea (SA2).

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, the Lurnea (SA2) is expected to experience above median growth with an increase of 2,080 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis shows Lurnea had around 58 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 293 homes. As of FY-26, 40 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of about 2.3 new residents per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction cost value is around $265,000, reflecting more affordable housing options.

Commercial development activity has been minimal, with $1.4 million approved this financial year. In terms of Greater Sydney, Lurnea records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 73rd percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 58.0% standalone homes and 42.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating an expanding range of medium-density options. This shift reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

Lurnea has approximately 172 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate a gain of 2,070 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects expected to affect the region. Notable initiatives include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, Avala Apartments Miller, and Lurnea Community Hub, with relevant details provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lurnea are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 10.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 6.4%.

As of September 2025, 3,582 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 6.0%, higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 37.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share twice the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited presence, at 3.8% compared to 11.5% regionally. Employment opportunities seem limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.4%, while the labour force grew by 4.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.3%. Statewide, NSW's employment contracted slightly by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, lower than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lurnea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Lurnea's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Lurnea is $49,109 and the average income stands at $57,593. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney of $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $53,460 (median) and $62,696 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Lurnea all fall between the 2nd and 16th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 29.5% of the community (3,170 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 74.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile.

Lurnea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Lurnea, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 75.3% houses and 24.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This differs from Sydney metro's structure which was 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea stood at 25.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.7% and rented dwellings at 42.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,080, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Lurnea was recorded as $380, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Lurnea's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Lurnea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.8 percent of all households, including 41.4 percent couples with children, 15.5 percent couples without children, and 19.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.2 percent, with lone person households at 20.5 percent and group households comprising 1.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Lurnea fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 20.0%. Educational participation is high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 13.8% in primary, 10.6% in secondary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.8% in primary education, 10.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis in Lurnea shows 72 active transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 31 individual routes, collectively offering 3,034 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 137 metres from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 433 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lurnea's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Lurnea residents have relatively positive health outcomes. Common health conditions' prevalence is low among the general population but higher among older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Private health cover rate is approximately 50% of the total population (~5,346 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 51.8% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (6.8%), while 73.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 76.4% in Greater Sydney. Lurnea has 13.0% residents aged 65 and over (1,397 people), with seniors requiring more health attention than the broader population.

Lurnea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea has a population where 46.1% were born overseas, with 64.7% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lurnea, accounting for 40.6%. Islam is notably higher than the Greater Sydney average, comprising 32.1% of Lurnea's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (30.5%), Australian (15.0%), and Lebanese (13.4%), which is significantly higher than the regional average. There are also notable differences in Serbian (1.9% vs 2.4%), Samoan (1.6% vs 1.3%), and Spanish (0.9% vs 0.8%) ethnic groups' representation compared to the region.

Lurnea hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Lurnea's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 15 to 24 has increased from 13.9% to 15.5%, while the age group of 45 to 54 has decreased from 11.0% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Lurnea's age profile will significantly change. The 15 to 24 age group is projected to grow by 27%, adding 455 residents to reach a total of 2,121. The 0 to 4 age group shows more modest growth at 6%, with an increase of only 47 residents.