Lurnea

Population growth drivers in Lurnea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Lurnea is around 10,750. This figure reflects a growth of 693 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,057. AreaSearch's examination of ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of new addresses indicates this increase. The population density is approximately 4,300 persons per square kilometer, placing Lurnea among the top 10% of locations assessed nationwide. Over the past decade, Lurnea has shown resilience with a compound annual growth rate of 1.5%, outperforming Greater Sydney. Overseas migration contributed to around 58% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former. Population growth is projected to be above median national levels until 2041, with Lurnea expected to increase by 2,071 persons, reflecting an 18.8% total increase over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Lurnea had around 58 dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 293 homes. In FY-26 so far, 40 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 resulted in an average of 2.3 new residents per year, reflecting robust demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $265,000, below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This financial year has seen $1.4 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 73rd percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 59.0% standalone homes and 41.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating diverse housing opportunities across price brackets. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 75.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for affordable housing alternatives.

The location has approximately 171 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Lurnea will gain 2,024 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lurnea are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 10.4% in December 2025, down from 12.6% a year earlier. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 7.1%.

As of December 2025, 3,624 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 6.2%, above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Lurnea was 49.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census data showed that 23.4% of residents worked from home. Dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area had a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (2.0 times the regional level), but professional & technical services were limited (3.8% compared to 11.5% regionally). Employment levels increased by 7.1% and labour force grew by 5.3% during the year to December 2025, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Lurnea's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Lurnea is $49,109 and the average income stands at $57,593. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817 and average income is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Lurnea would be approximately $53,460 (median) and $62,696 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Lurnea all fall between the 2nd and 16th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 29.5% of the community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 (3,171 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lurnea, with only 74.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Lurnea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Lurnea's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.3% houses and 24.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea was at 25.5%, with the rest either mortgaged (31.7%) or rented (42.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,080, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Lurnea's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Lurnea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.8% of all households, consisting of 41.4% couples with children, 15.5% couples without children, and 19.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Lurnea fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (20.0%). Educational participation is high at 36.3%, comprising primary education (13.8%), secondary education (10.6%), and tertiary education (4.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.8% in primary education, 10.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 72 active transport stops operating within Lurnea, consisting of buses. These stops are served by 31 individual routes, collectively providing 3034 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 137 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 87%, with 6% using train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, some 23.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 433 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lurnea is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Lurnea faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~5,348 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.0 and 6.8% of residents respectively. 73.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Under-65s in Lurnea have better health outcomes than average. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,440 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Lurnea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea has one of the most culturally diverse populations in Australia, with 46.1 percent born overseas and 64.7 percent speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lurnea, accounting for 40.6 percent of its population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented, comprising 32.1 percent compared to Greater Sydney's average of 6.8 percent.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (30.5 percent), Australian (15.0 percent), and Lebanese (13.4 percent). Notably, Serbian (1.9 percent vs regional 0.5 percent), Samoan (1.6 percent vs regional 0.5 percent), and Spanish (0.9 percent vs regional 0.6 percent) groups are also overrepresented in Lurnea.

Lurnea hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At age 32 years, Lurnea's median age is younger than the Greater Sydney average of 37 years and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 years (16.6%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 years (12.4%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the age group of 15 to 24 years has increased from 13.9% to 15.8% of the population, while the age group of 45 to 54 years has decreased from 11.0% to 10.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Lurnea's age profile will change significantly by the year 2041. The 15 to 24 age cohort is projected to grow by 24%, adding 412 residents to reach a total of 2,111. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow at a more modest rate of 5%, adding only 63 residents.