Lurnea

Population growth drivers in Lurnea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Lurnea is around 11,035 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 978 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,057 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 11,011 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,414 persons per square kilometer, making land in the area highly sought after. Lurnea's growth of 9.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (7.1%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an above median growth is expected, with the area projected to increase by 1,921 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 17.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Lurnea has experienced around 58 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 293 homes. So far in FY-26, 42 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.2 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $265,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. There have also been $1.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

Relative to Greater Sydney, Lurnea records about three-quarters the building activity per person while it places among the 74th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 59.0% standalone homes and 41.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 75.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 171 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Lurnea will gain 1,897 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to influence the region. Notable initiatives include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lurnea are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. The manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent. The unemployment rate was 10.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 7.5%.

As of December 2025, 3,681 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 6.4%, above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was at 49.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. About 23.4% of residents worked from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Lurnea showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share twice the regional level. However, professional & technical jobs had limited presence at 3.8% compared to the regional 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited as indicated by the working population versus resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 7.5% and labour force grew by 5.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lurnea's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Lurnea's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Lurnea was $49,109 and the average income stood at $57,593, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $54,177 for median income and $63,537 for average income as of March 2026. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Lurnea all fall between the 2nd and 16th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 29.5% of the community (3,255 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 74.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Lurnea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Lurnea, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.3% houses and 24.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metropolitan's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea stood at 25.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.7% and rented ones at 42.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,080, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Lurnea was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Lurnea's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,080 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Lurnea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.8% of all households, including 41.4% couples with children, 15.5% couples without children, and 19.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Lurnea fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 31.4% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 20.0%. Educational participation is high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.8% in primary education, 10.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lurnea has 72 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 31 different routes that together facilitate 3034 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 137 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars are the primary mode of transportation for 87% of residents, while trains are used by 6%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.4% of Lurnea's residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 433 trips per day, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lurnea is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Lurnea faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age cohorts but more so among older individuals. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~5,489 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (6.8%), while 73.2% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The under-65 population has better health outcomes than average. Lurnea has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.5%, compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Lurnea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea's population is culturally diverse, with 46.1% born overseas and 64.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 40.6%. Islam is overrepresented at 32.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 6.8%.

Top three ancestry groups are Other (30.5%), Australian (15.0%), and Lebanese (13.4%). Serbian (1.9%), Samoan (1.6%), and Spanish (0.9%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Lurnea hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Lurnea's median age is 32 years, which is younger than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.6%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.8%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the age group 15-24 has grown from 13.9% to 15.5%, while the age group 45-54 has declined from 11.0% to 10.2%. Demographic modeling suggests Lurnea's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 15-24 cohort (23%), adding 388 residents to reach a total of 2,099. The 35-44 group shows more modest growth at 3%, adding only 40 residents.