Lurnea

Population growth drivers in Lurnea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Lurnea's population is estimated at around 10,766, reflecting an increase of 709 people since the 2021 Census. The population reported in the 2021 Census was 10,057. This growth represents a 7.0% increase and places Lurnea among the top 10% of locations nationally by population density ratio, which is 4,306 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth since the census exceeded the state average of 6.7%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 58% of overall population gains during recent periods in Lurnea. AreaSearch estimated the resident population at 10,716 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), with an additional 72 validated new addresses since the Census date.

For future projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. By 2041, Lurnea is projected to increase by 2,081 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 19.1% over the 17-year period, indicating above median population growth for national areas.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Lurnea among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Lurnea has seen approximately 57 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, this totals an estimated 288 homes. As of FY-26, 26 approvals have been recorded. Each new dwelling built has resulted in an average of 2.4 new residents per year over these five years.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $265,000, which is below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY-26, there have been $1.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to residential growth. Lurnea records about three-quarters the building activity per person relative to Greater Sydney and ranks among the 69th percentile nationally for areas assessed by AreaSearch. Recent construction comprises 58.0% standalone homes and 42.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an increasing trend towards medium-density options.

This shift is notable compared to the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 75.0% houses. The location has approximately 193 people per dwelling approval, indicating a growing market. Population forecasts suggest Lurnea will gain 2,052 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply is expected to meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 7 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lurnea are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 10.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.8%.

As of June 2025, 3,552 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 6.4%, higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation lags at 37.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share double the regional level.

Professional & technical jobs are limited at 3.8%, compared to 11.5% regionally. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.8% and labour force by 5.1%, reducing unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Lurnea's employment should increase by 6.1% in five years and 12.9% in ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Lurnea's median income among taxpayers was $49,109 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $57,593 during the same period. In Greater Sydney, these figures were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By September 2025, current estimates project Lurnea's median income to be approximately $55,302 and average income at around $64,855, based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Lurnea fall between the 2nd and 16th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 29.5% of Lurnea's community (3,175 individuals), which is consistent with broader metropolitan trends showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lurnea, with only 74.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Lurnea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Lurnea, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted on 27 August 2016, comprised 75.3% houses and 24.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings, compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea was at 25.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (31.7%) or rented (42.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,080 as of July 2019, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure for Lurnea was recorded at $380 in March 2020, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Lurnea's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of June 2020, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at that time.

Lurnea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.8 percent of all households, including 41.4 percent couples with children, 15.5 percent couples without children, and 19.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.2 percent, with lone person households at 20.5 percent and group households comprising 1.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Lurnea fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate, at 15.3%, falls significantly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 11.1% of residents holding such qualifications, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 31.4% holding these skills, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (20.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (13.8%), secondary education (10.6%), and tertiary education (4.4%). Lurnea's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,547 students and demonstrate typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities, having an ICSEA score of 955. Education provision is balanced with two primary schools and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lurnea has 70 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 31 different routes that together facilitate 2,753 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 137 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 393 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lurnea's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Lurnea shows relatively positive outcomes with low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 50% (~5,356 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (6.8%), with 73.2% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 76.4% in Greater Sydney. Lurnea has 13.0% residents aged 65 and over (1,399 people), requiring more health attention than the broader population.

Lurnea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea has a high level of cultural diversity, with 46.1% of its population born overseas and 64.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lurnea, accounting for 40.6% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, comprising 32.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (30.5%), Australian (15.0%), and Lebanese (13.4%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Serbian (1.9%) and Samoan (1.6%) populations in Lurnea are notably higher compared to regional averages, while Spanish (0.9%) is marginally higher.

Lurnea hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Lurnea's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5%). According to data from the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 13.9% to 15.5%, while the proportion of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 11.0% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Lurnea's age profile will change significantly. The 15-24 age group is projected to grow by 27%, adding 451 residents to reach a total of 2,120. The 0-4 age group is expected to grow at a more modest rate of 6%, with an increase of 47 residents.