Ashcroft

Ashcroft has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, AreaSearch estimates Ashcroft's population at around 3,683, a 49-person increase (1.3%) since the 2021 Census figure of 3,634. This estimate is based on AreaSearch's resident population count of 3,640 as of Jun 2024 and additional validation of 20 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 3,202 persons per square kilometer, placing Ashcroft in the upper quartile nationally. Overseas migration drove recent growth, contributing approximately 52.0% of overall population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

These projections anticipate above median population growth for the Ashcroft (SA2), with an expected increase to 4,340 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 657 persons and 17.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ashcroft, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Ashcroft averaged around 9 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 49 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 7 approvals have been recorded. Population decline in recent years has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $222,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

This financial year, $122,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ashcroft shows substantially reduced construction (87.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, though recent intensified construction activity has been observed. This activity is also below national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

Ashcroft shows characteristics of a low density area, with around 216 people per dwelling approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Ashcroft is expected to grow by 656 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Ashcroft has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified five projects potentially influencing the region. Major initiatives include Hurlstone Agricultural High School Redevelopment, Planning Proposal for 93-145 Hoxton Park Road, 51 Maryvale Avenue & 260 Memorial Avenue, Spring Square by Poly Bankstown, and Frangipane Avenue Apartments.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Ashcroft are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Ashcroft's workforce comprises white and blue-collar jobs, with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 14.3% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 7.3%. The area had an unemployment rate of 10.1%, higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation stood at 35.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade was notably concentrated, with levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had a lower representation, at 2.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 7.3%, while labour force grew by 4.2%, leading to a 2.5 percentage point decrease in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% and unemployment increase by 0.2%. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov-25 showed employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ashcroft's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Ashcroft's median income among taxpayers was $39,625 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $45,968 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $43,136 (median) and $50,041 (average), based on an 8.86% increase since financial year 2023. Census data from 2021 shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Ashcroft all fall within the 1st to 6th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 28.6% of residents earn between $800 - $1,499 annually. This contrasts with surrounding regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is dominant at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ashcroft, with only 75.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Ashcroft is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ashcroft's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashcroft was at 21.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.7% and rented ones at 54.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Sydney metro's $2,475. Median weekly rent in Ashcroft was $295, compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Ashcroft's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $295 than the national figure of $375.

Ashcroft has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.6% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 13.1% couples without children, and 22.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.4%, with lone person households at 24.0% and group households making up 1.6%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Ashcroft faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.4%) and certificates (23.4%). Educational participation is high, with 38.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 15.1% in primary, 11.9% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 38.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 11.9% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 20 active stops operating in Ashcroft. These are a mix of bus services. There are 15 routes serving these stops, providing 897 weekly passenger trips combined.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 151 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 128 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ashcroft's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Ashcroft residents show relatively positive health outcomes with a low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, but higher than national averages for older and at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 45% (1,664 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 53.8%. Nationally, it stands at 55.7%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (7.8%) and asthma (7.2%), while 71.9% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 77.9%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 12.6% (464 people), than Greater Sydney's 10.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Ashcroft is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashcroft's cultural diversity is notable, with 43.1% of its population born overseas and 60.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ashcroft, comprising 40.6% of people. Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to the Greater Sydney average, making up 27.2% of Ashcroft's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (23.4%), Australian (17.2%), and English (13.6%). Some ethnic groups show significant divergence: Samoan at 3.9% compared to the regional average of 1.5%, Lebanese at 10.0% versus 4.0%, and Vietnamese at 9.3% compared to 4.4%.

Ashcroft hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ashcroft's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ashcroft has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (17.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 15 to 24 has increased from 14.6% to 16.6%, while the age group of 25 to 34 has decreased from 12.8% to 12.0%. Demographic projections suggest that Ashcroft's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 15 to 24 age group is projected to grow by 22%, adding 134 residents and reaching a total of 746. Conversely, population declines are projected for the age groups of 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 years old.