Heckenberg

Heckenberg has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Heckenberg statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,297. This figure represents an increase of 34 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,263. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,275 in June 2024, based on ABS ERP data release and validation of six new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of approximately 3,545 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 52% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is utilising ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the Heckenberg (SA2) is projected to experience above median population growth based on aggregated SA2-level projections. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by approximately 593 persons, reflecting a total increase of around 17.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Heckenberg is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Heckenberg recorded around 7 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 39 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. Population decline over recent years has seen development activity remain adequate relative to population changes, which could benefit buyers seeking affordable housing options.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $222,000, below the regional average. This financial year has seen $61,000 in commercial development approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Heckenberg's building activity is 88.0% below the regional average per person, which can strengthen demand and prices for existing properties due to the scarcity of new developments. This activity also falls below national averages, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints in the area. New development consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving Heckenberg's suburban nature while attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 656 people per dwelling approval, Heckenberg reflects a highly mature market. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Heckenberg to grow by 589 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Heckenberg has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified three projects that may affect this region: Hurlstone Agricultural High School Redevelopment, Planning Proposal for 93-145 Hoxton Park Road, 51 Maryvale Avenue & 260 Memorial Avenue, Busby Social Housing for Seniors, and Mounties Mount Pritchard Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Heckenberg lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Heckenberg has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment. The manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented in the area.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 14.1%. Over the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 7.1%, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. At this time, 1,042 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 9.9% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Heckenberg lags significantly at 38.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Notably, manufacturing employment levels are at 2.1 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 2.7% of Heckenberg's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 7.1% while labour force increased by 3.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Heckenberg's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, according to a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Heckenberg has a median taxpayer income of $39,971 and an average income of $46,369 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is below the national average, which is a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003 in Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Heckenberg would be approximately $43,512 (median) and $50,477 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Heckenberg all fall between the 2nd and 10th percentiles nationally. The income bracket indicating earnings of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 27.3% of the community (900 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Heckenberg, with only 76.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Heckenberg is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Heckenberg, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.9% houses and 14.2% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metro's dwelling structure of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heckenberg was at 20.9%, similar to the Sydney metro level, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented dwellings at 50.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Heckenberg was $1,850, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,475. The median weekly rent figure for Heckenberg was recorded at $300, compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Heckenberg's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and its median weekly rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Heckenberg features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.8% of all households, including 35.1% couples with children, 15.2% couples without children, and 27.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.2%, consisting of 18.5% lone person households and 2.9% group households. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Heckenberg faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (21.1%). Educational participation is high at 35.7%, comprising primary education (13.2%), secondary education (11.7%), and tertiary education (4.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 11.7% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Heckenberg has 29 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 26 different routes that together facilitate 1,205 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 108 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 172 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Heckenberg is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Heckenberg demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, among older and at-risk cohorts, the prevalence is higher than the nation's average. The rate of private health cover in Heckenberg is extremely low at approximately 45% of the total population (~1,495 people), which compares to 53.8% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.6 and 7.4% of residents respectively, while 72.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 77.9% across Greater Sydney. Heckenberg has 12.9% of its residents aged 65 and over (425 people), which is higher than the 10.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, requiring more attention than the broader population.

Heckenberg is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Heckenberg's cultural diversity is notable with 43.0% of its population born overseas and 63.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 35.0% of Heckenberg's population. Buddhism is significantly overrepresented in Heckenberg, making up 14.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 6.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (22.3%), Australian (15.9%), and Vietnamese (13.1%). Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented at 11.6% in Heckenberg versus 4.0% regionally, Samoan at 2.4% versus 1.5%, and Serbian at 0.9% versus 1.9%.

Heckenberg hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Heckenberg's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Heckenberg has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (17.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is above the national average of 12.5%. According to data from the 2021 Census, Heckenberg's population has seen an increase in the 15-24 age group, from 15.9% to 17.7%, and a decrease in the 45-54 age group, from 12.1% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Heckenberg's age profile will change significantly. The 15-24 cohort is projected to grow by 22%, adding 129 residents to reach a total of 713. Conversely, the number of residents aged 35-44 is expected to decrease.