Hinchinbrook
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Hinchinbrook are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Hinchinbrook's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 13,042. This figure represents a slight increase from the 2021 Census count of 13,038 people. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 13,035, with an additional three validated new addresses recorded since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 2,498 persons per square kilometer, placing Hinchinbrook in the upper quartile compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Hinchinbrook has shown resilience with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%, outperforming metropolitan areas. Overseas migration was the primary driver for population growth, contributing approximately 57.4% of overall gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate lower quartile growth, with Hinchinbrook expected to grow by 46 persons to 2041 based on the latest numbers. This would result in a total growth of approximately 0.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Hinchinbrook is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Hinchinbrook has averaged approximately 19 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 98 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with two approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which can be beneficial for buyers. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $349,000, below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options.

This financial year, $4.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hinchinbrook has significantly less development activity, 93.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This level is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 1140 people per approval, Hinchinbrook shows a mature, established area.

Looking ahead, population projections suggest Hinchinbrook is expected to grow by 39 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Hinchinbrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Twelve projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key initiatives include the Fifteenth Avenue Smart Transit (FAST) Corridor project, the M7-M12 Integration Project, the Avala Apartments Miller development, and the Cecil Hills High School Upgrade project. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Hinchinbrook has been broadly consistent with national averages

Hinchinbrook has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 3.6% in the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 5.5%. As of June 2025, 6841 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%, which is 0.6% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 54.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Manufacturing had particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence, with 5.0% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 5.5%, while labour force increased by 5.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, with a slight increase in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hinchinbrook's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1%% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Hinchinbrook's median income among taxpayers was $46,181 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $54,311 during the same period. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. As of March 2025, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $51,076 and an average income of $60,068, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 68th percentile ($2,039 weekly), while personal income sits at the 23rd percentile. In Hinchinbrook, 36.6% of locals (4,773 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. This is similar to the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.3% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 66th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Hinchinbrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Hinchinbrook's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 88.0% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Sydney metro's 88.0% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hinchinbrook stood at 28.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.4% and rented ones at 21.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, significantly lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,475. The median weekly rent in Hinchinbrook was recorded at $480, compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Hinchinbrook's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hinchinbrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 90.0% of all households, including 56.8% couples with children, 15.9% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 10.0%, with lone person households at 8.9% and group households comprising 0.9%. The median household size is 3.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Educational outcomes in Hinchinbrook fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 19.6%, substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 30.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 19.3%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.4% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education. Educational provision includes Hinchinbrook Public School and Hoxton Park High School, collectively serving 1,394 students. Hinchinbrook demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 952) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and one secondary institution. School places per 100 residents are at 10.7, falling below the regional average of 19.1, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hinchinbrook has 57 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 49 different routes that collectively provide 2,952 weekly passenger trips. The average distance between residents and the nearest transport stop is 176 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 421 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Hinchinbrook's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Hinchinbrook's health outcomes show excellent results, notably for younger populations with low prevalence of common conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 47% (around 6,155 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 52.5% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.0%) and arthritis (5.4%).

A majority, 78.1%, report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 77.9%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 12.9% (1,687 people), above Greater Sydney's 10.1%. Seniors' health outcomes are above average but warrant more attention than the broader population.

Hinchinbrook is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hinchinbrook has a population where 48.0% were born overseas, with 64.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hinchinbrook, accounting for 60.2% of its population. However, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 10.2% of Hinchinbrook's population versus the regional average of 6.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (35.9%), Australian (11.3%), and English (6.9%). Notably, Serbian (2.9%), Spanish (1.3%), and Vietnamese (6.8%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9%, 1.0%, and 4.4% respectively.

Hinchinbrook's population is younger than the national pattern

Hinchinbrook's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 12.9% of Hinchinbrook's population compared to Greater Sydney's percentage. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age cohort makes up 13.4%, which is less prevalent than in Greater Sydney. From 2021 to present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.1% to 8.3% of Hinchinbrook's population, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.5% to 3.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 13.4% to 11.9%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 15.5% to 14.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Hinchinbrook, with the 75-84 age cohort projected to grow exceptionally by 664 people (138%), from 482 to 1,147. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 25-34 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.