Bonnyrigg

Bonnyrigg lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Bonnyrigg statistical area (Lv2) is around 10,019 people. This figure reflects a growth of 234 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,785 people. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 9,890 at that time. This growth results in a density ratio of approximately 3,295 persons per square kilometer for Bonnyrigg (SA2), placing it among the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2014 to 2024, Bonnyrigg demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.6%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71% of overall population gains during recent periods in Bonnyrigg (SA2).

AreaSearch's projections for the Bonnyrigg statistical area (Lv2) are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022, with a base year of 2021, are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Bonnyrigg statistical area (Lv2) is projected to increase its population by approximately 2,039 persons, reflecting a total increase of 19.2% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bonnyrigg according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bonnyrigg has seen around 28 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 140 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, this translates to approximately 0.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed during these five years.

New supply appears to be keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $365,000. Additionally, $790,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating the area's residential nature. When compared to Greater Sydney, Bonnyrigg records about 62% of the building activity per person.

Nationally, it places among the 41st percentile of areas assessed, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This is under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development in Bonnyrigg consists of 94.0% detached dwellings and 6.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving its suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (74.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With around 403 people per dwelling approval, Bonnyrigg shows a developed market. Future projections estimate Bonnyrigg adding 1,920 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bonnyrigg has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Canvas at Bonnyrigg, Bonnyrigg Estate Renewal - Humphries Precinct (Canvas), Bonnyrigg Town Hub Precinct (Stages 12-13), and Mounties Mount Pritchard Upgrade. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Bonnyrigg shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Bonnyrigg has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 4,203 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.3%, which is 1.0% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Bonnyrigg was significantly lower at 41.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment among residents was concentrated in manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing had a particularly high employment share, at 2.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services had limited presence with only 5.3% of employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 5.2%, while labour force grew by 4.1%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, with the labour force growing by 2.4% and unemployment increasing by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW to 25-Nov-25 showed employment had contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered insight into potential future demand within Bonnyrigg. These projections estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with significant variations between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Bonnyrigg's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.4% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released in financial year 2023, Bonnyrigg suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $43,667 and an average income of $51,514. These figures are lower than the national averages of $60,817 for Greater Sydney and $83,003 for the city overall. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $47,536, with average income projected at $56,078. According to 2021 Census figures, individual incomes rank at the 2nd percentile ($486 weekly), while household incomes are at the 28th percentile. In Bonnyrigg, 30.1% of the population (3,015 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the regional average of 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bonnyrigg, with only 78.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Bonnyrigg is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Bonnyrigg's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 73.8% houses and 26.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 73.3% houses and 26.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bonnyrigg stood at 25.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.4% and rented ones at 44.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Sydney metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Bonnyrigg was $374, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Bonnyrigg's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Bonnyrigg features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 82.8% of all households, including 40.3% couples with children, 16.5% couples without children, and 24.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 16.0% and group households making up 1.3%. The median household size is 3.2 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Bonnyrigg faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.3% and graduate diplomas at 0.6%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (16.2%). Educational participation is high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary, 10.3% in secondary, and 5.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bonnyrigg has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 51 different routes that together facilitate 4,127 weekly passenger trips. The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 141 meters.

On average, there are 589 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 63 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Bonnyrigg is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Bonnyrigg shows healthier outcomes compared to average, with fewer general population residents having common health conditions but higher prevalence among older, at-risk groups. Only about 47% (~4,746 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

Diabetes and asthma are most prevalent, affecting 6.8% and 5.8% respectively; 75.1% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 75.6%. The area has fewer seniors aged 65 and over at 17.3% (1,733 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 19.0%, but this group requires more attention.

Bonnyrigg is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bonnyrigg has a population where 57.0% were born overseas, with 74.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Bonnyrigg, accounting for 44.4% of its population. Buddhism, however, is more prevalent in Bonnyrigg at 30.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 21.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (30.0%), Vietnamese (23.9%), and Chinese (12.4%). Notably, Serbian (2.5%) is overrepresented in Bonnyrigg compared to the regional average of 1.8%, while Spanish (1.0%) and Samoan (1.3%) also show notable divergences from their respective regional averages of 1.0%.

Bonnyrigg's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Bonnyrigg has a median age of 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 15-24 age group is strongly represented in Bonnyrigg at 15.6%, compared to Greater Sydney. However, the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 13.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 3.7% to 5.3% of Bonnyrigg's population, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.3% to 15.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.6% to 11.3%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Bonnyrigg's age structure. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 114%, adding 606 people and reaching a total of 1,138 from the current figure of 531. This growth reflects an aging population trend, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 62% of projected growth. The 55-64 age group is projected to grow by 0%, adding only 0 residents.