Hinchinbrook (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hinchinbrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Hinchinbrook (NSW) is estimated at around 11,577 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 11,521 people, a growth of 56 individuals or approximately 0.5%. The current population is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 11,552 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, combined with an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,584 persons per square kilometer, placing Hinchinbrook in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from Feb 2016 to Feb 2026, the suburb has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%, outpacing the Greater Sydney region during this period. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 55% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, for areas covered by this data. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 438 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of approximately 4.8% in total over the 17-year period from Feb 2026 to Feb 2043.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hinchinbrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Hinchinbrook has seen approximately 20 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 102 homes were approved, with 11 more approved in FY-26 so far. Despite a decline in population, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new dwellings is $350,000. This year, $4.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hinchinbrook has significantly less development activity, 91.0% below the regional average per person. The limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, which is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 85.0% detached dwellings and 15.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

With around 598 people per dwelling approval, Hinchinbrook reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate Hinchinbrook will gain 550 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Hinchinbrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to impact this region: Fifteenth Avenue Smart Transit Corridor, OTR Prestons Convenience Retail, Avala Apartments Miller, and Hoxton Park Recycled Water Scheme. The following details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Hinchinbrook shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Hinchinbrook has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.9%. As of September 2025, there are 5,852 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, which is 0.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The workforce participation rate in Hinchinbrook is 65.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 28.2% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing has a particularly high employment share at 1.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.4%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Over the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force grew by 4.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a slight rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hinchinbrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Hinchinbrook's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $43,384. The average income stood at $51,242 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney had figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively for median and average incomes. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $47,228 (median) and $55,782 (average). According to the 2021 Census, individual incomes were at the 15th percentile ($631 weekly), while household income was at the 59th percentile. The largest income bracket comprised 37.0% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (4,283 residents). High housing costs consumed 17.6% of income. Despite this, disposable income remained at the 58th percentile.

Hinchinbrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Hinchinbrook's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hinchinbrook was at 30.1%, similar to Sydney metro, with the rest being mortgaged (46.2%) or rented (23.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,134, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $463, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Hinchinbrook's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hinchinbrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 89.2% of all households, composed of 53.7% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 10.8%, with lone person households at 9.9% and group households comprising 1.2% of the total. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Hinchinbrook fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (19.3%). Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.6% in primary, 9.9% in secondary, and 6.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hinchinbrook has 53 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 56 individual routes that together facilitate 2,593 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 171 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 92%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.9, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 28.2% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

On average, there are 370 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Hinchinbrook is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Hinchinbrook shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is notably lower at approximately 47% (~5,471 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, the average stands at 55.7%. Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.2% and 5.9% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 76.5%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The under-65 population in Hinchinbrook displays better health outcomes than average. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) of 14.6% (~1,690 people), with their health outcomes being above average and generally aligning with national rankings for the broader population.

Hinchinbrook is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hinchinbrook has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 50.4% of its population born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hinchinbrook, comprising 56.2% of the population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented compared to the Greater Sydney average, making up 10.4% of Hinchinbrook's population.

In terms of ancestry, the most represented groups are Other (34.8%), Australian (11.2%), and English (7.4%). Notably, Serbian, Spanish, and Samoan ethnicities are overrepresented in Hinchinbrook compared to regional averages: Serbian at 2.4% vs 0.5%, Spanish at 1.5% vs 0.6%, and Samoan at 2.1% vs 0.5%.

Hinchinbrook's population is younger than the national pattern

Hinchinbrook's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 13.7% of Hinchinbrook's population, compared to Greater Sydney's figure, while the 35-44 age group constitutes 12.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.8% to 9.4%, and the 75-84 age group has increased from 2.9% to 4.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 14.5% to 13.0%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 13.3% to 11.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Hinchinbrook. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 627 people (132%), from 474 to 1,102. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 97% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 45-54 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.