Hinchinbrook (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hinchinbrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, the Hinchinbrook (NSW) statistical area (Lv2)'s estimated population is around 11,570. This reflects an increase of 49 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,521. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 11,552 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,582 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2011 to 2021, the Hinchinbrook (NSW) (SA2) has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%, outpacing the metropolitan area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 55% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, lower quartile growth of national statistical areas is anticipated, with the area expected to increase by 448 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 4.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hinchinbrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Hinchinbrook averaged around 20 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 102 homes were approved, with a further 11 approved so far in FY-26. This level of supply has likely kept up with demand despite population decline, offering good choice to buyers.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $350,000. In the current financial year, $4.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hinchinbrook has significantly less development activity, 91.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also below average, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New development consists of 85.0% standalone homes and 15.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving Hinchinbrook's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 598 people per dwelling approval, Hinchinbrook reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 557 residents through to 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Hinchinbrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified five projects likely impacting the region. Key projects are Fifteenth Avenue Smart Transit (FAST) Corridor, OTR Prestons Convenience Retail, Avala Apartments Miller, and Prestons Distribution Centre Expansion. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Hinchinbrook remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Hinchinbrook's workforce is skilled with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 4.5% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.8%. As of September 2025, 5,847 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 0.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 51.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Manufacturing had a particularly high representation with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 4.4% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.8%, while labour force increased by 3.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 percentage points in Hinchinbrook. This contrasted with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1%, the labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Hinchinbrook's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Hinchinbrook's median income among taxpayers was $43,384 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $51,242 during the same period. These figures are below Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median income for Hinchinbrook would be approximately $47,228 by September 2025, with average income estimated at $55,782 during the same period. According to the 2021 Census figures, individual incomes in Hinchinbrook lagged at the 15th percentile with weekly earnings of $631, while household income performed better at the 59th percentile. In financial year 2023, 37.0% of the population (4,280 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range. High housing costs consumed 17.6% of income in Hinchinbrook, yet strong earnings placed disposable income at the 58th percentile.

Hinchinbrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Hinchinbrook, as per the latest Census evaluation, 88.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 12.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Sydney metro's 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hinchinbrook stood at 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 23.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,134, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,475. The median weekly rent in Hinchinbrook was $463, compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Hinchinbrook's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,134 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hinchinbrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 89.2% of all households, including 53.7% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 10.8%, with lone person households at 9.9% and group households making up 1.2% of the total. The median household size is 3.5 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Educational outcomes in Hinchinbrook fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (19.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that there are currently 53 active public transport stops operating within the Hinchinbrook area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 56 individual routes in operation. Collectively, these routes provide a weekly passenger trip count of 2,593.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 171 meters away from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency is around 370 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Hinchinbrook's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Hinchinbrook, with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was found to be very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,467 people), compared to 53.8% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.2 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 76.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 77.9% across Greater Sydney.

The area has 13.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,585 people), which is higher than the 10.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but require more attention than the broader population.

Hinchinbrook is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hinchinbrook's population is culturally diverse, with 50.4% born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 56.2%. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 10.4% of Hinchinbrook's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (34.8%), Australian (11.2%), and English (7.4%). Serbian (2.4%), Spanish (1.5%), and Samoan (2.1%) ethnicities have notable representation compared to regional averages.

Hinchinbrook's population is younger than the national pattern

Hinchinbrook has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 years has strong representation in Hinchinbrook at 13.8%, compared to Greater Sydney. However, the 35-44 age cohort is less prevalent at 12.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.8% to 8.9% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 13.3% to 11.9%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 14.5% to 13.2%. Population forecasts for Hinchinbrook in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow exceptionally, increasing by 654 people (145%) from 451 to 1,106. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 55-64 and 45-54 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.