Hinchinbrook (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hinchinbrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Hinchinbrook NSW, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since Nov 2025, is around 11,614. This figure reflects an increase of 93 people (0.8%) from the 2021 Census population of 11,521. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 11,583 in Jun 2024 and five additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,595 persons per square kilometer, placing Hinchinbrook in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, Hinchinbrook has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%, outperforming metropolitan areas. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch's projections for Hinchinbrook are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government SA2 level projections from 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Hinchinbrook is projected to grow by 451 persons, reflecting an increase of 4.4% in total over the 17-year period, based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This anticipated growth places Hinchinbrook in the lower quartile of national statistical areas considering projected demographic shifts.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hinchinbrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Hinchinbrook shows around 21 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 107 homes. As of FY-26, seven approvals have been recorded. The declining population suggests new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $353,000, under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers.

This financial year, $437,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hinchinbrook records markedly lower building activity, 91.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 86.0% detached dwellings and 14.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 530 people per dwelling approval, Hinchinbrook shows a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Hinchinbrook is expected to grow by 516 residents through to 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Hinchinbrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified five projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Fifteenth Avenue Smart Transit (FAST) Corridor, OTR Prestons Convenience Retail, Avala Apartments Miller, and Prestons Distribution Centre Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Hinchinbrook remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Hinchinbrook has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.3%.

As of June 2025, 5,893 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Hinchinbrook is lower at 51.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited presence with 4.4% employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3% while labour force grew by 4.7%, causing a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hinchinbrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Hinchinbrook's median taxpayer income was $43,385 and average income was $51,248 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is below Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,856 (median) and $57,710 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data shows individual incomes at the 15th percentile were $631 weekly, while household incomes were at the 59th percentile. The largest income segment comprised 37.0% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,297 residents). High housing costs consumed 17.6% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 58th percentile.

Hinchinbrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Hinchinbrook's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hinchinbrook stood at 30.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 23.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,134, below Sydney metro's average of $2,475. Median weekly rent in Hinchinbrook was $463, compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Hinchinbrook's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,134 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hinchinbrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 89.2% of all households, including 53.7% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 10.8%, with lone person households at 9.9% and group households comprising 1.2% of the total. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Educational outcomes in Hinchinbrook fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (19.3%).

Educational participation is high at 32.5%, including primary education (10.6%), secondary education (9.9%), and tertiary education (6.0%). Hinchinbrook's three schools have a combined enrollment of 2,709 students as of the latest data. The area has typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities, indicated by an ICSEA score of 970. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and two secondary institutions. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 23.3 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 19.0, suggesting the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hinchinbrook has 46 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 56 different routes that together facilitate 2,539 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 171 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 362 trips per day across all routes, which works out to approximately 55 weekly trips per individual stop.

Hinchinbrook's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Hinchinbrook, with younger cohorts seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was found to be very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,489 people), compared to 52.5% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.2 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 76.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 77.9% across Greater Sydney.

As of 14th June 2021, the area has 13.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,591 people), which is higher than the 10.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Hinchinbrook is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hinchinbrook has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 50.4% of its population born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Hinchinbrook, making up 56.2% of people. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented, comprising 10.4% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 6.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (34.8%), Australian (11.2%), and English (7.4%). Notably, Serbian (2.4%) Spanish (1.5%), and Samoan (2.1%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Hinchinbrook's population is younger than the national pattern

Hinchinbrook has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 has strong representation at 13.8%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent at 12.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 7.8% to 8.9% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 13.3% to 11.9%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 14.5% to 13.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Hinchinbrook, with the 75 to 84 age cohort projected to grow exceptionally by 653 people (144%), from 452 to 1,106. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 100% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.