Hinchinbrook (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hinchinbrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Hinchinbrook (NSW) is around 11,578. This reflects an increase of 57 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,521. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 11,568 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,584 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55% of overall population gains during recent periods, primarily driving growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, lower quartile growth is anticipated for national statistical areas, with the area expected to increase by 375 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 3.1% in total over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Hinchinbrook is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Between Financial Year 21 and Financial Year 25, Hinchinbrook had an estimated 102 dwelling approvals. As of Financial Year 26, there have been 16 more approvals. The area has averaged around 20 new dwelling approvals annually.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $350,000. This financial year, there have been $4.0 million in commercial development approvals recorded. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hinchinbrook has significantly less development activity, being 91.0% below the regional average per person. New development consists of 85.0% standalone homes and 15.0% medium and high-density housing. Population forecasts indicate Hinchinbrook will gain 365 residents by 2041.

Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand.

Hinchinbrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to impact the area: Fifteenth Avenue Smart Transit (FAST) Corridor, OTR Prestons Convenience Retail, Avala Apartments Miller, and Hoxton Park Recycled Water Scheme. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Hinchinbrook remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Hinchinbrook has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.3%. As of December 2025, there are 5,886 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.4% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is lower at 64.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 28.2% of residents work from home. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area has a high specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.4%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3% and labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2%, labour force grow by 2.3%, and unemployment increase marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hinchinbrook's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Hinchinbrook's median income among taxpayers was $43,384 in financial year 2023, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $51,242 during this period. In comparison, Greater Sydney had a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2023 to March 2026, estimated current figures are approximately $47,861 for the median and $56,530 for the average in Hinchinbrook. According to 2021 Census figures, individual incomes were at the 15th percentile ($631 weekly), while household income was at the 59th percentile. In financial year 2023, 37.0% of the population (4,283 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represented 30.9%. High housing costs consumed 17.6% of income in Hinchinbrook, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 58th percentile.

Hinchinbrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Hinchinbrook's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hinchinbrook was at 30.1%, similar to Sydney metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (46.2%) or rented (23.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,134, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $463, slightly higher than Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Hinchinbrook's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hinchinbrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 89.2% of all households, including 53.7% couples with children, 16.6% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 10.8%, with lone person households at 9.9% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Hinchinbrook fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (19.3%). Educational participation is high at 32.5%, with 10.6% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hinchinbrook has 53 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 56 distinct routes that collectively facilitate 2,593 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing 171 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Hinchinbrook residents commute outward, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 92%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.9, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 28.2% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 370 trips daily, equating to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Hinchinbrook is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Hinchinbrook shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and elderly cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% (~5,471 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, it averages 55.7%. Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.2% and 5.9% respectively. 76.5% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Under-65 health outcomes are better than average. The area has 14.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,701 people). Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Hinchinbrook is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hinchinbrook has one of the highest cultural diversities in Australia, with 50.4% of its population born overseas and 65.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hinchinbrook, comprising 56.2% of the population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented at 10.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 4.1%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the largest group at 34.8%, substantially higher than the regional average of 16.0%. Australian and English ancestry are notably underrepresented at 11.2% and 7.4% respectively, compared to regional averages of 17.8% and 19.0%. Serbian, Spanish, and Samoan ethnic groups are also notably overrepresented in Hinchinbrook at 2.4%, 1.5%, and 2.1% respectively, compared to their respective regional averages of 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.5%.

Hinchinbrook's population is younger than the national pattern

Hinchinbrook's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 13.9%, higher than Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 13.1%. From 2021 to present, the 65-74 age group grew from 7.8% to 9.4%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.9% to 4.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 14.5% to 13.0%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 13.3% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Hinchinbrook. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 611 people (129%), from 474 to 1,086. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 99% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 55-64 and 45-54 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.