Horningsea Park

Horningsea Park is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of Horningsea Park is around 3,834. This reflects a growth of 161 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,673. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,825 residents following their examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and validation of 123 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of approximately 3,912 persons per square kilometer, placing Horningsea Park within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth rate of 4.4% since the census is competitive with the state's growth fundamentals, being within 2.7 percentage points of NSW's 7.1%. Natural growth contributed approximately 58% to overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch projections for Horningsea Park are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to Horningsea Park for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 340 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of around 8.6% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Horningsea Park, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Horningsea Park has averaged around 5 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Approximately 25 homes were approved between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 13 approved in FY-26 to date.

Despite a falling population, housing supply has been adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $381,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horningsea Park's building activity is 93.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings, although development activity has increased recently. The area's development activity is also below national averages, likely due to its maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Horningsea Park's suburban character focused on family homes.

This differs from the current housing pattern, which is 99.0% houses, suggesting decreasing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. With around 336 people per approval, Horningsea Park reflects a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Horningsea Park is expected to grow by 331 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Horningsea Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to influence the region: Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (164), Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (225), and Dalma Holdings Shoptop Development. The following details those most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Horningsea Park places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Horningsea Park has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.3%. As of December 2025, 2,344 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 77.0%, higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 40.4% of residents worked from home. Dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.7 times the regional level).

However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 5.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 5.3% while labour force grew by 5.0%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horningsea Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Horningsea Park's median income is $56,884 and average income is $68,830. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from financial year ending June 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,754 (median) and $75,933 (average). The 2021 Census data shows Horningsea Park's household income ranks at the 89th percentile ($2,457 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 54th percentile. Predominant income cohort spans 37.7% of locals (1,445 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across metropolitan region showing 30.9% in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 36.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 87th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Horningsea Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Horningsea Park, as per the latest Census evaluation, 98.7% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 1.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horningsea Park stood at 21.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 19.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,253, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Horningsea Park was $530, higher than the national average of $375 but lower than Sydney metro's figure of $470. Nationally, Horningsea Park's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,253 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Horningsea Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 90.8% of all households, consisting of 60.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 9.2%, with lone person households at 8.1% and group households comprising 0.6%. The median household size is 3.5 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Horningsea Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (21.0%). Educational participation is high at 34.4%, comprising secondary education (11.8%), primary education (10.6%), and tertiary education (6.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.8% in secondary education, 10.6% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horningsea Park has 20 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are served by 40 different routes, offering a total of 1,073 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents living an average of 182 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Horningsea Park's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 92%, while trains account for 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.1 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 40.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 153 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 53 weekly trips per stop.

Horningsea Park's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Horningsea Park. AreaSearch's assessment indicates low mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, particularly among younger cohorts.

Private health cover is high at approximately 54%, with about 2,076 people covered, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most common conditions are asthma (6.6%) and arthritis (4.6%), while 79.4% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Horningsea Park has 10.7%, or approximately 410 people aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Horningsea Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Horningsea Park's cultural diversity is notable, with 39.4% of its population born overseas and 50.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Horningsea Park, comprising 57.7% of people. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, making up 15.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (29.4%), Australian (13.5%), and English (9.6%). Notably, Serbian (2.4%) and Spanish (1.2%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. Croatian is also overrepresented at 2.0% versus the region's 0.7%.

Horningsea Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Horningsea Park's median age is 32 years, which is younger than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horningsea Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (19.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is above the national average of 12.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 65-74 has increased from 5.4% to 6.8%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 15.3% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Horningsea Park's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 131%, adding 155 residents to reach 274. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 66% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 0-4 and 15-24 cohorts.