Horningsea Park

Horningsea Park is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Horningsea Park is estimated at around 3,700 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,673 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of a resident population of 3,696 in June 2024 and validation of 123 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of approximately 3,775 persons per square kilometer, placing Horningsea Park in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Horningsea Park has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.8%, outpacing its SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Horningsea Park is expected to increase by 412 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Horningsea Park recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Horningsea Park has received approximately 3 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25, around 18 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved in FY26.

Each new dwelling is estimated to bring about 15.8 new residents annually over the past five financial years. This significant demand outpaces supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost for new dwellings is around $381,000. Horningsea Park's building activity is lower than Greater Sydney's but has seen recent increases. Its mature market status, with approximately 452 people per approval, reflects its suburban nature, predominantly consisting of detached houses.

By 2041, Horningsea Park is projected to grow by 595 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep up with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Horningsea Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may affect this region: Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (164), Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (225), and Dalma Holdings Shoptop Development. The following details the most relevant projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Horningsea Park places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Horningsea Park's workforce comprises skilled individuals with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 1.1% as of an unspecified date. Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 5.1%.

As of September 2025, 2,344 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Horningsea Park stands at 80.7%, exceeding Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 40.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.3% of Horningsea Park's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in an unspecified date, employment increased by 5.1%, labour force grew by 4.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horningsea Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Horningsea Park's median income is $56,884 and average income is $68,830. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $61,924 (median) and $74,928 (average). The 2021 Census data ranks Horningsea Park's household income at the 89th percentile ($2,457 weekly), but personal income ranks lower at the 54th percentile. Dominant income cohort is 37.7% of locals (1,394 people) earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, similar to Sydney's 30.9%. High-income households (exceeding $3,000 weekly) make up 36.0%, indicating strong consumer spending despite high housing costs consuming 16.8% of income. Disposable income ranks at the 87th percentile and Horningsea Park's SEIFA income ranking is in the 7th decile.

Horningsea Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Horningsea Park's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 98.7% houses and 1.3% other dwellings, contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horningsea Park stood at 21.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 19.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,253, below Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent was $530, higher than Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Horningsea Park's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horningsea Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 90.8% of all households, including 60.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 9.2%, with lone person households at 8.1% and group households comprising 0.6%. The median household size is 3.5 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Horningsea Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 32.7% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.7% and certificates at 21.0%. Educational participation is high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.8% in secondary education, 10.6% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horningsea Park has 20 active public transport stops, served by 40 routes offering 1,073 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop is 182 meters. Most residents commute outward, with cars being the primary mode at 92%. Train use stands at 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.1 per dwelling. In 2021 Census data, 40.4% of residents worked from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 153 trips daily across all routes, or approximately 53 weekly trips per stop.

Horningsea Park's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows strong health performance in Horningsea Park based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts had very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover was found to be high at approximately 54% of the total population (around 2,003 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. Asthma and arthritis were the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 6.6% and 4.6% of residents respectively. 79.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 10.5% of residents aged 65 and over (388 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Horningsea Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Horningsea Park has a high level of cultural diversity, with 39.4% of its population born overseas and 50.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Horningsea Park, comprising 57.7% of the population. However, Islam is overrepresented, making up 15.9% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 6.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (29.4%), Australian (13.5%), and English (9.6%). Notably, Serbian, Spanish, and Croatian ethnicities are also overrepresented in Horningsea Park compared to regional averages.

Horningsea Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Horningsea Park's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horningsea Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.7%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 65-74 has increased from 5.4% to 6.8%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 12.7% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Horningsea Park's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 157%, adding 174 residents and reaching a total of 285. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 56% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts.