Horningsea Park

Horningsea Park is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Horningsea Park's population is estimated at around 3700 people. This reflects an increase of 27 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3673 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 3696 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and an additional 44 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of approximately 3775 persons per square kilometer, placing Horningsea Park in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Horningsea Park has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.7%, outpacing its SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 58% of overall population gains during recent periods.

All drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Horningsea Park is expected to increase its population just below the median of national areas, with an estimated increase of 413 persons to reach approximately 4113 by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of around 16% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Horningsea Park recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Horningsea Park had around 3 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 18 homes were approved, with another 2 approved in FY-26 so far.

This results in an average of about 15.8 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed annually during this period. The demand significantly exceeds the new supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $381,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horningsea Park has markedly lower building activity, reflecting its mature market with around 452 people per approval. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates Horningsea Park will grow by 592 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Horningsea Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified four projects that are expected to impact the area: Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (164), Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (225), and Dalma Holdings Shoptop Development. The following list provides details on those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Horningsea Park places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Horningsea Park has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2%.

As of September 2025, 2,354 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 63.0%, comparable to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Horningsea Park shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 5.2% while labour force grew by 4.9%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point decrease in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a slight rise in unemployment. State-level data from NSW as of 25-November shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horningsea Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Horningsea Park has an income median of $56,884 and average income of $68,830. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Horningsea Park are approximately $61,924 (median) and $74,928 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data ranks household incomes at the 89th percentile ($2,457 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 54th percentile. Predominant income cohort spans 37.7% of locals in the $1,500 - 2,999 category. Economic strength is evident with 36.0% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 87th percentile, and SEIFA income ranking places Horningsea Park in the 7th decile.

Horningsea Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Horningsea Park, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 98.7% houses and 1.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horningsea Park was at 21.0%, similar to Sydney metro, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (59.2%) or rented (19.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,253, below the Sydney metro average of $2,475. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $530, compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Horningsea Park's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horningsea Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 90.8% of all households, including 60.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.2%, with lone person households at 8.1% and group households comprising 0.6%. The median household size is 3.5 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Educational outcomes in Horningsea Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (21.0%). Educational participation is high at 34.4%, comprising secondary education (11.8%), primary education (10.6%), and tertiary education (6.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.8% in secondary education, 10.6% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horningsea Park has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 40 different routes that together facilitate 1,073 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 182 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 153 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Horningsea Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Horningsea Park shows excellent health outcomes with both young and elderly residents experiencing low rates of common health conditions.

Approximately 54% (~2003 people) have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.6%) and arthritis (4.6%), while 79.4% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 77.9%. Horningsea Park has 10.1% (373 people) aged 65 and over, with seniors requiring more health attention than the broader population.

Horningsea Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Horningsea Park has a high cultural diversity, with 39.4% of its population born overseas and 50.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Horningsea Park, making up 57.7% of people there. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 15.9% of Horningsea Park's population versus 12.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other at 29.4%, Australian at 13.5%, and English at 9.6%. Notably, Serbian (2.4%), Spanish (1.2%) and Croatian (2.0%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9%, 1.0% and 1.4% respectively.

Horningsea Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Horningsea Park's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horningsea Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is higher than the national average of 12.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, Horningsea Park's population aged 65-74 grew from 5.4% to 6.5%, while the proportion of residents aged 45-54 declined from 15.9% to 15.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Horningsea Park's age profile will change significantly. The number of residents aged 75-84 is projected to increase by 172%, adding 178 residents to reach a total of 282 in this age group. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 57% of the population growth, while the populations aged 0-4 and 5-14 are projected to decline.