Horningsea Park

Horningsea Park is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Horningsea Park's population is estimated at around 3,700, reflecting an increase of 27 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,673. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,696 residents based on latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and additional 123 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 3,775 persons per square kilometer, placing Horningsea Park in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 58% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Considering projected demographic shifts, Horningsea Park is expected to increase by 412 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of approximately 11% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Horningsea Park when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Horningsea Park has experienced around 5 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 25 homes were approved, with another 7 approved in FY-26 so far.

On average, over these years, 11.6 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed. This demand significantly exceeds supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new dwellings is $381,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horningsea Park has markedly lower building activity, recording 93.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods.

New development consists of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 99.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Horningsea Park indicates a mature market with around 349 people per approval. Looking ahead, the area is expected to grow by 408 residents through to 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Horningsea Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect the region: Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (164), Bathla Group Croatia Avenue (225), and Dalma Holdings Shoptop Development. The following details those most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Horningsea Park places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Horningsea Park has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 1.1% in the past year. Employment grew by an estimated 5.6%.

As of December 2025, 2,379 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation was high at 81.3%. A significant proportion, 40.4%, worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.7 times the regional level) but under-representation in professional & technical services (5.3% vs Greater Sydney's 11.5%). Employment opportunities locally might be limited, as indicated by working population vs resident population counts. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 5.6%, labour force by 5.3%, reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Greater Sydney experienced slower growth in employment (2.2%) and labour force (2.3%). Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horningsea Park's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Horningsea Park's median income is $56,884 and average income is $68,830. This compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $61,924 (median) and $74,928 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Horningsea Park's household income ranks at the 89th percentile ($2,457 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 54th percentile. The predominant income cohort is 37.7% of locals earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This aligns with broader metropolitan trends where 30.9% fall into this category. Notably, 36.0% of households have high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, indicating strong consumer spending power despite high housing costs consuming 16.8% of income. Horningsea Park's disposable income ranks at the 87th percentile, and its SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Horningsea Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

As of the latest Census, Horningsea Park's dwelling structure consisted of 98.7% houses and 1.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horningsea Park was at 21.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 19.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,253, below Sydney metro's $2,427. The median weekly rent in Horningsea Park was $530, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Horningsea Park's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horningsea Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 90.8% of all households, including 60.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.2%, with lone person households at 8.1% and group households comprising 0.6%. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Horningsea Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 11.7% and certificates make up 21.0%. Educational participation is high at 34.4%, including 11.8% in secondary education, 10.6% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.8% in secondary education, 10.6% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horningsea Park has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 40 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,073 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 182 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Horningsea Park being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 92%, while only 5% use trains for commuting. On average, there are 2.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 40.4% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages at 153 trips per day, equating to approximately 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Horningsea Park's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Horningsea Park. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low, particularly among younger cohorts.

Private health cover was high at approximately 54% of the total population (~2,003 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions were asthma (6.6%) and arthritis (4.6%). A total of 79.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Horningsea Park has 10.7% of its population aged 65 and over (395 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Horningsea Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Horningsea Park has a high level of cultural diversity, with 39.4% of its population born overseas and 50.7% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, accounting for 57.7% of the population. Islam is notably overrepresented in Horningsea Park compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 15.9% versus 6.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the most represented groups are Other (29.4%), Australian (13.5%), and English (9.6%). The latter is significantly lower than the regional average of 19.0%. Some ethnic groups have notable divergences in representation: Serbian at 2.4% compared to 0.5% regionally, Spanish at 1.2% versus 0.6%, and Croatian at 2.0% compared to 0.7%.

Horningsea Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Horningsea Park's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horningsea Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (19.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.8%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 has grown from 5.4% to 6.8%, while the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 12.7% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Horningsea Park's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 135%, adding 155 residents to reach a total of 270. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 63% of the population growth during this period. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.