Lurnea - Cartwright
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Lurnea - Cartwright's population is approximately 13,579 as of Nov 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 909 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,670. The increase was inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. The population density is around 3,913 persons per square kilometer, placing Lurnea - Cartwright in the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. Its growth rate of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the state's average of 6.7%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 58.3% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Lurnea - Cartwright is expected to increase its population by 2,637 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 19.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea - Cartwright among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright has recorded around 71 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 355 homes were approved. In FY26 so far, 34 homes have been approved.

On average, over these five years, about 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed, indicating solid demand that supports property values. The average expected construction cost value of new homes was $203,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. This financial year has seen approximately $1.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to other areas.

When measured against Greater Sydney and nationally, Lurnea-Cartwright shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and places among the 70th percentile of assessed areas. New developments consist of 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% attached dwellings, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. With around 189 people per dwelling approval, Lurnea-Cartwright shows characteristics of a growth area. By 2041, it is expected to grow by approximately 2,580 residents. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea - Cartwright has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea-Cartwright has a balanced workforce with significant representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 12.1% as of June 2025, compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.7%. As of June 2025, 4,263 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 35.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area had a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Professional & technical services had limited presence at 3.5% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.7%, while labour force grew by 4.8%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Lurnea-Cartwright's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Lurnea-Cartwright's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $47,594. The average income stood at $55,816 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,596 (median) and $62,854 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Lurnea-Cartwright fall between the 2nd and 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution indicates that 27.0% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the regional trend where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lurnea-Cartwright, with only 73.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Lurnea - Cartwright is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Lurnea - Cartwright, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.3% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea - Cartwright was 23.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (29.0%) or rented (47.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, below Sydney metro's average of $2,167. Weekly rent median was recorded at $350, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Lurnea - Cartwright's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lurnea - Cartwright has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.3% of all households, including 38.1% couples with children, 14.8% couples without children, and 19.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Lurnea - Cartwright faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.4%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (20.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education. Lurnea - Cartwright's 4 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,800 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates varied educational conditions across Lurnea - Cartwright. Education provision is balanced with 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents stand at 13.3, falling below the regional average of 16.7, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 79 active transport stops operating within Lurnea - Cartwright. These comprise a mix of buses serving 35 individual routes, collectively providing 2,783 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 397 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lurnea - Cartwright's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Lurnea's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~6,463 people), compared to 50.4% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.3 and 7.2% of residents respectively. 71.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Sydney. The area has 13.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,786 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Lurnea - Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea-Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 45.9% of its population born overseas and 63.3% speaking a language other than English at home as of 2016 Census data. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lurnea-Cartwright, making up 40.8% of people. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, comprising 30.1%.

According to ancestry, the top three groups are Other (30.0%), Australian (15.7%), and Lebanese (12.2%), which is substantially higher than the regional average. Notably, Serbian (1.7%) and Samoan (2.0%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Additionally, Vietnamese representation stands at 4.8%, exceeding the regional average of 3.6%.

Lurnea - Cartwright's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea-Cartwright has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 13.8% to 15.4%, while the 45-54 age group has declined from 11.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Lurnea-Cartwright. The 15-24 age cohort is projected to grow by 27%, adding 562 residents to reach a total of 2,656. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age cohort is expected to grow by a modest 6%, an increase of 60 people.