Lurnea - Cartwright

Population growth drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Lurnea - Cartwright's population is around 13,588 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 918 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,670 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,522 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 83 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,915 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Lurnea - Cartwright has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.5%, outpacing the Greater Sydney area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 58.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the area, with an expected increase of 2,637 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 18.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea - Cartwright among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lurnea - Cartwright has recorded approximately 71 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 355 homes have been approved, with a further 52 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 2.4 people per year moved to the area for each new home constructed during these years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes was around $203,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. This financial year has seen approximately $1.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. When measured against Greater Sydney and nationally, Lurnea - Cartwright shows about 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 70th percentile of areas assessed.

New developments consist of 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% attached dwellings, offering a variety of housing types across different price ranges. With around 189 people per dwelling approval, Lurnea - Cartwright exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 2,571 residents through to 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea - Cartwright has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could significantly impact the local performance. Notable initiatives include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub. For further details on these key projects, refer to the following list.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea - Cartwright has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 11.8%, showing an estimated employment growth of 6.6% over the past year. The area's unemployment rate is 7.6% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Lurnea - Cartwright is significantly lower at 47.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 21.8% of residents work from home. Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share twice the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 3.5%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the difference between working population and resident population counts. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.6% and labour force grew by 4.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a slight rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lurnea - Cartwright's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Lurnea - Cartwright SA2's median income among taxpayers was $51,836 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $59,397 during the same period. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $56,429 (median) and $64,660 (average). Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Lurnea - Cartwright all fall between the 2nd and 9th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 27.0% of the community (3,668 individuals), mirroring the region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 73.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Lurnea - Cartwright is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Lurnea-Cartwright, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.3% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea-Cartwright was at 23.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.0% and rented ones at 47.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in the area was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Lurnea-Cartwright's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Lurnea - Cartwright has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.3% of all households, including 38.1% couples with children, 14.8% couples without children, and 19.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Lurnea - Cartwright faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives in the region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (20.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 83 active transport stops operating within Lurnea - Cartwright. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 35 individual routes providing 3,085 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commute outward; car remains dominant at 85%, while train accounts for 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 21.8% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 440 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lurnea - Cartwright is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Lurnea-Cartwright faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 6,644 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.3% and 7.2% of residents respectively. Around 71.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,831 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Lurnea - Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea-Cartwright has a population where 45.9% were born overseas, with 63.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 40.8%. Islam's representation stands at 30.1%, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 6.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (30.0%), Australian (15.7%), and Lebanese (12.2%). Notably, Samoan (2.0%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.5%, as are Serbian (1.7% vs 0.5%) and Vietnamese (4.8% vs 1.8%).

Lurnea - Cartwright's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Lurnea - Cartwright has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea - Cartwright has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 13.8% to 15.7%, while the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 11.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Lurnea - Cartwright's population structure. The 15 to 24 age cohort is expected to grow by 24%, adding 519 residents to reach a total of 2,656. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 4% (an increase of 73 people).