Lurnea - Cartwright

Population growth drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Lurnea - Cartwright's population is around 13,779 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,109 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,670 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,737 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 85 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,970 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lurnea - Cartwright's growth rate of 8.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.1%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 64.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, an above median population growth is projected for the area, with an expected increase of 2,430 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 17.3% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea - Cartwright among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright recorded approximately 71 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 355 homes were approved, with an additional 54 approved in FY26 as of now. On average, about 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $203,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen approximately $1.9 million in commercial approvals, reflecting minimal commercial development activity compared to residential growth. When comparing Lurnea-Cartwright's construction activity with Greater Sydney, it shows around 75% of the activity per person.

Nationally, it ranks among the 70th percentile of areas assessed for construction activity. The new developments consist of approximately 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% attached dwellings, offering a blend of housing types that caters to various price ranges and family sizes. With around 189 people per dwelling approval, Lurnea-Cartwright exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Lurnea-Cartwright is projected to grow by approximately 2,388 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea - Cartwright has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea - Cartwright has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent. The unemployment rate was 12.0% as of December 2025.

Employment grew by 7.2% in the past year. There were 4,351 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 7.9%, higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation was 47.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Approximately 21.8% of residents worked from home as of the Census.

Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share twice the regional level. Professional & technical services have a limited presence at 3.5% compared to the regional 11.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited as indicated by Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 7.2% and labour force by 5.0%, reducing unemployment by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lurnea - Cartwright's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.1% in five years and 12.9% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Lurnea-Cartwright SA2 was $51,836 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $59,397 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Greater Sydney, which had a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $57,185 (median) and $65,527 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Lurnea-Cartwright all fall between the 2nd and 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 27.0% of individuals in the area earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the national trend where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 73.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Lurnea - Cartwright is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Lurnea - Cartwright, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.3% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea - Cartwright stood at 23.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.0% and rented ones at 47.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, below the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Lurnea - Cartwright was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Lurnea - Cartwright's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Lurnea - Cartwright has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.3% of all households, including 38.1% couples with children, 14.8% couples without children, and 19.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Lurnea - Cartwright faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 14.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 31.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 20.4%. Educational participation is high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.9% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 83 active transport stops operating within Lurnea-Cartwright area as of 2021 Census data. These stops are serviced by 35 individual routes, collectively providing 3,085 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains dominant mode at 85%, with 7% using train. Average vehicle ownership is 1.2 per dwelling.

Some 21.8% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 440 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lurnea - Cartwright is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Lurnea - Cartwright faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population, around 6737 people, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.3% and 7.2% of residents respectively. Around 71.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. As of 2021, 13.5% of residents are aged 65 and over, around 1860 people, which is lower than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Lurnea - Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea-Cartwright has a population where 45.9% were born overseas, with 63.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 40.8%. Islam's representation is notably higher at 30.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 6.8%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the largest group at 30.0%, followed by Australian (15.7%) and Lebanese (12.2%). Samoan (2.0%), Serbian (1.7%), and Vietnamese (4.8%) groups are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5%, 0.5%, and 1.8% respectively.

Lurnea - Cartwright's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea-Cartwright has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.8%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 13.8% to 15.5%, while the population aged 45-54 has declined from 11.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, projections indicate significant demographic changes in Lurnea-Cartwright. The 15-24 age group is projected to grow by 23%, adding 482 residents to reach a total of 2,613. Meanwhile, the 35-44 age group is projected to grow by a modest 3%, adding 52 people.