Lurnea - Cartwright
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Lurnea - Cartwright's population is around 13,573 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 903 people (7.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,670 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,522 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 79 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,911 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly-sought resource. Lurnea - Cartwright's 7.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (6.4%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 58.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of Australian statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,637 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of 19.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea - Cartwright among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright recorded around 71 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data from the ABS is on a financial year basis: 355 homes over the past five years (FY21-FY25), with 22 approvals so far in FY26. On average, 2.4 people move to the area per new home constructed between FY21 and FY25. New homes are built at an average construction cost of $265,000.

Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $1.9 million. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea-Cartwright shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person, placing it among the 70th percentile nationally. New development consists of 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% attached dwellings.

With around 189 people per dwelling approval, Lurnea-Cartwright indicates growth area characteristics. By 2041, Lurnea-Cartwright is expected to grow by 2,586 residents. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potential growth exceeding current forecasts.

Lurnea - Cartwright has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, Parks for People Program Bankstown, and Lurnea Community Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea - Cartwright has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 12.1% in June 2024, dropping to 7.9% by June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.7%. As of June 2025, 4,263 residents are employed. The unemployment rate is higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags significantly at 35.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have limited presence at 3.5% compared to the regional 11.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.7%, while labour force increased by 4.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% with a slight rise in unemployment to 4.3%. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. National unemployment was 4.5% with national employment growth at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's projections from May 2025 forecast national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary by industry sector. Applying these projections to Lurnea - Cartwright's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1%% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Lurnea - Cartwright's median income among taxpayers was $47,594 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $55,816 during the same period. In Greater Sydney, the median and average incomes were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% between financial year 2022 and March 2025, estimated current figures for Lurnea - Cartwright are approximately $52,639 (median) and $61,732 (average). Census data indicates that incomes in Lurnea - Cartwright fall between the 2nd and 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 27.0% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lurnea - Cartwright, with only 73.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Lurnea - Cartwright is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lurnea-Cartwright's dwelling structure in its latest Census evaluation was 71.3% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Sydney metropolitan area had 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea-Cartwright was 23.2%, similar to Sydney metro's level, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.0% and rented ones at 47.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent was recorded at $350, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Lurnea-Cartwright's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lurnea - Cartwright has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households are 74.3% of all households, consisting of 38.1% couples with children, 14.8% couples without children, and 19.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

Lurnea - Cartwright faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces challenges in educational attainment, with university qualification rates at 14.4%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common among qualifications, at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (20.4%). Educational participation is high, at 36.3%, including 13.9% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

The area's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,800 students. School places per 100 residents (13.3) are below the regional average (16.7), indicating some students may attend schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that as of Lurnea - Cartwright there are 79 active transport stops in operation. These stops service a mix of bus routes totaling 35 individual routes. Together, these routes provide a weekly passenger trip count of 2,783.

The accessibility rating for transport is excellent with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop. Across all routes, there are an average of 397 trips per day, which equates to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lurnea - Cartwright's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Lurnea's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 6,460 people), compared to 50.4% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.3 and 7.2% of residents respectively. About 71.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% in Greater Sydney. Around 13.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (approximately 1,786 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Lurnea - Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea-Cartwright is one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas, with 45.9% of its population born overseas. A total of 63.3% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lurnea-Cartwright, making up 40.8% of people in the area.

However, Islam has a substantial overrepresentation, comprising 30.1% of the population compared to Greater Sydney's average of 17.4%. Regarding ancestry, the top three represented groups are Other at 30.0%, Australian at 15.7%, and Lebanese at 12.2%, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Notably, Serbian (1.7% vs regional 2.4%), Samoan (2.0% vs 1.3%), and Vietnamese (4.8% vs 3.6%) are also overrepresented in Lurnea-Cartwright compared to regional averages.

Lurnea - Cartwright's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea-Cartwright has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 13.8% to 15.4%, while the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 11.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Lurnea-Cartwright. The 15 to 24 age cohort is projected to grow by 27%, adding 563 residents to reach a total of 2,656. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 age group is expected to grow by a modest 6%, with an increase of 60 people.