Lurnea - Cartwright

Population growth drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Lurnea - Cartwright's population is around 13,588 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 918 people (7.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,670 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,522 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 83 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,915 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought-after resource. Over the past decade, Lurnea - Cartwright has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.5% compound annual growth rate, outpacing Greater Sydney. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 58.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above-median population growth for Australian statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,637 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 18.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea - Cartwright among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lurnea - Cartwright has recorded around 71 residential properties granted approval annually, with 355 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 52 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.4 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $203,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. There have also been $1.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Lurnea - Cartwright shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 70th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% attached dwellings, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. With around 189 people per dwelling approval, Lurnea - Cartwright shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, Lurnea - Cartwright is expected to grow by 2,571 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea - Cartwright has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total 13 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea - Cartwright features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 12.0%, and 7.2% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,351 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 7.9% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (47.9% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 21.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area has particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 3.5% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 7.2% and the labour force increased by 5.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Lurnea - Cartwright. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lurnea - Cartwright's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Lurnea - Cartwright SA2's income level is lower than average on a national basis according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Lurnea - Cartwright SA2's median income among taxpayers is $51,836 and the average income stands at $59,397, which compares to figures for Greater Sydney's of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,429 (median) and $64,660 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Lurnea - Cartwright all fall between the 2nd and 9th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 27.0% of the community (3,668 individuals), mirroring the region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 73.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile.

Lurnea - Cartwright is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Lurnea - Cartwright, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 71.3% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Lurnea - Cartwright was lagging that of Sydney metro, at 23.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.0%) or rented (47.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Lurnea - Cartwright's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Lurnea - Cartwright has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.3% of all households, comprising 38.1% couples with children, 14.8% couples without children, and 19.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Lurnea - Cartwright faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.4%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (20.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 83 active transport stops operating within Lurnea - Cartwright comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 35 individual routes, collectively providing 3,085 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 85%, with 7% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. Some 21.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 440 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lurnea - Cartwright is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Lurnea - Cartwright faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~6,644 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.3 and 7.2% of residents, respectively, while 71.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,831 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Lurnea - Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea - Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 45.9% of its population born overseas and 63.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Lurnea - Cartwright is Christianity, which makes up 40.8% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 30.1% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Sydney average of 6.8%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Lurnea - Cartwright are Other, comprising 30.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 16.0%, Australian, comprising 15.7% of the population, and Lebanese, comprising 12.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 2.6%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Samoan is notably overrepresented at 2.0% of Lurnea - Cartwright (vs 0.5% regionally), Serbian at 1.7% (vs 0.5%) and Vietnamese at 4.8% (vs 1.8%).

Lurnea - Cartwright's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 33, Lurnea - Cartwright is materially younger than the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and is substantially under Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Sydney, Lurnea - Cartwright has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (16.3%) but fewer 35 - 44 year-olds (12.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 13.8% to 15.7% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Lurnea - Cartwright. The 15 to 24 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 24%, adding 519 residents to reach 2,656. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 cohort grows by a modest 4% (73 people).