Lurnea - Cartwright

Population growth drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Lurnea - Cartwright's population is approximately 13,579, reflecting a growth of 909 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 7.2% rise from the previous figure of 12,670. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 13,522 in June 2024 and an additional 81 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,913 persons per square kilometer, placing Lurnea - Cartwright in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeds the state average of 6.7%, indicating it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 58.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for the area. By 2041, Lurnea - Cartwright's population is projected to increase by approximately 2,637 persons, reflecting a total gain of 19.0% over the 17-year period, according to the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lurnea - Cartwright among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright has recorded approximately 71 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 355 homes were approved, and as of FY26, 44 have been granted approval. On average, about 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $203,000, which is below regional levels, offering more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen around $1.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to residential growth. When compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea-Cartwright shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 70th percentile nationally when considering areas assessed for urban development.

New developments consist of 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% attached dwellings, providing a mix of housing types catering to different price ranges and family sizes. With around 189 people per dwelling approval, Lurnea-Cartwright exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 2,580 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lurnea - Cartwright has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Milperra Community Hub by Mirvac, and Lurnea Community Hub. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lurnea - Cartwright are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lurnea-Cartwright has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, predominantly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 11.8%.

Over the past year, there's been an estimated 6.6% employment growth. As of September 2025, 4300 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Sydney's at 7.6%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags behind Greater Sydney's at 35.8%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share twice the regional level. However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 3.5% compared to the regional 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.6%, labour force by 4.3%, reducing unemployment by 1.9 percentage points. Meanwhile, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and a slight rise in unemployment rate. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted slightly at -0.03%. National forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary by industry sector. Applying these projections to Lurnea-Cartwright's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Lurnea - Cartwright SA2 was $47,594 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $55,816 during the same period. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $53,596 (median) and $62,854 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Lurnea - Cartwright all fall between the 2nd and 9th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 27.0% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lurnea - Cartwright, with only 73.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Lurnea - Cartwright is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Lurnea-Cartwright, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.3% houses and 28.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metropolitan areas which had 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lurnea-Cartwright was at 23.2%, similar to the Sydney metro average, with mortgaged properties at 29.0% and rented ones at 47.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Lurnea-Cartwright was $350, compared to the Sydney metro figure of $400. Nationally, Lurnea-Cartwright's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $350 against the national figure of $375.

Lurnea - Cartwright has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.3% of all households, including 38.1% couples with children, 14.8% couples without children, and 19.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households making up 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Lurnea - Cartwright faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common university qualifications, with a rate of 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.0% and graduate diplomas at 0.8%. Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 31.3% holding such qualifications.

Advanced diplomas account for 10.9% and certificates for 20.4%. Educational participation is high, with 36.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows that as of January 2021, there are 79 active transport stops operating within Lurnea - Cartwright. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with 35 individual routes in total. Collectively, these routes provide 2,783 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 397 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lurnea - Cartwright's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Lurnea's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low in Lurnea, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 6,463 people), compared to 50.4% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.3 and 7.2% of residents respectively, while 71.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Sydney.

Lurnea has 13.2% of its residents aged 65 and over (around 1,786 people), with health outcomes among seniors requiring more attention than the broader population.

Lurnea - Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lurnea-Cartwright has a population where 45.9% were born overseas and 63.3% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 40.8%. Islam is notably higher than the Greater Sydney average, making up 30.1%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the largest group at 30.0%, followed by Australian at 15.7% and Lebanese at 12.2%, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Some ethnic groups are overrepresented: Samoan at 2.0%, Serbian at 1.7%, and Vietnamese at 4.8%.

Lurnea - Cartwright's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Lurnea-Cartwright has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lurnea-Cartwright has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 13.8% to 15.4%, while the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 11.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, Lurnea-Cartwright's population is projected to experience significant demographic changes. The 15 to 24 age cohort is expected to grow by 27%, adding 562 residents to reach a total of 2,656. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 age group is projected to grow by a modest 6%, an increase of 60 people.