Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park
Statistical Area - sa2

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park's population was 13,263 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, it is projected to reach 14,028, an increase of 765 people (5.8%). This growth reflects an estimated resident population of 14,031 in June 2024 and 90 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density as of Aug 2025 is 3,396 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. Over the past decade ending in Aug 2021, the area demonstrated a compound annual growth rate of 2.7%, outpacing its SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 58.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to increase by 1,461 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 10.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park when compared nationally

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park has granted around 86 residential property approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 433 homes approved over the past five years from FY-20 to FY-25, with 7 approvals so far in FY-26. An average of 5.0 new residents per dwelling has been constructed annually between FY-20 and FY-25. This area has seen limited commercial development focus, with $7.2 million in commercial approvals recorded this financial year.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park shows substantially reduced construction levels, 87.0% below the regional average per person. New development consists of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% attached dwellings. The area has approximately 659 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Future projections suggest Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park will add 1,464 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand.

Future projections show Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park adding 1,464 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Favco Industrial Park, Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreation Centre, and Prestons Industrial Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Hoxton Park-Carnes Hill-Horningsea Park has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 2.7% in the past year, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth was estimated at 5.4% over the same period. As of June 2025, 7663 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Greater Sydney's rate and workforce participation similar to the region's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area has a specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level, while professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.0% compared to the regional 11.5%.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 5.4%, labour force by 4.9%, leading to a unemployment rate decrease of 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Hoxton Park-Carnes Hill-Horningsea Park's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch reports median taxpayer income of $52,541 and average income of $63,574 in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park for financial year 2022. Nationally, the figures are $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). By March 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $58,110 and average $70,313, accounting for a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 81st percentile ($2,248 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 41st percentile. Income brackets show that 37.9% (5,316 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.9%. Notably, 31.2% exceed $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power. High housing costs consume 18.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Hoxton Park-Carnes Hill-Horningsea Park, as per the latest Census, 94.1% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 5.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area stood at 20.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.8% and rented ones at 22.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,342, lower than Sydney metro's $2,475. The median weekly rent was $500 compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, the area's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 90.6% of all households, including 60.1% couples with children, 15.7% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for 9.4%, with lone person households at 8.5% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Educational attainment in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The university qualification rate in the area is 22.2%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (19.0%). Educational participation is high at 35.5%, comprising primary education (12.7%), secondary education (11.0%), and tertiary education (5.6%).

Six schools operate in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park, educating approximately 4,011 students. The area's ICSEA score is 1015, indicating balanced educational opportunities. It has three primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 28.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 19.2, suggesting the area serves as an educational hub for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis found 45 active public transport stops operating in the area encompassing Hoxton Park, Carnes Hill, and Horningsea Park. These stops are served by a mix of buses on 74 individual routes, collectively providing 2,401 weekly passenger trips. The report dated 12th October 2021 rated transport accessibility as good, with residents typically located 214 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averaged 343 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park, with both younger and older age groups experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of the total population (~7,182 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (affecting 5.9% of residents) and diabetes (5.3%), while 79.6% report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.9% across Greater Sydney. The area has 10.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,433 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average but require more attention than the broader population.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hoxton Park-Carnes Hill-Horningsea Park has a high level of cultural diversity, with 46.0% of its population born overseas and 59.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in this area, comprising 58.1% of people. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 14.0% versus 12.9%.

Regarding ancestry, the top groups are Other at 33.9%, Australian at 10.8%, and English at 8.2%. Notably, Serbian (2.6%), Spanish (1.2%) and Samoan (1.8%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9%, 1.0% and 1.5% respectively.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 15.1% to 16.3%, while the 65 to 74 age group has risen from 5.6% to 6.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has decreased from 17.4% to 16.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 165%, adding 621 residents and reaching a total of 997. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 67% of the population growth, indicating demographic aging. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.