Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park

Population growth drivers in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park's population is 14,185 as of Nov 2025. This shows an increase of 922 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 13,263. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population figures: 14,031 by June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,434 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The area's growth rate of 7.0% since the 2021 census exceeds the state average of 6.7%. Natural growth contributed approximately 58.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to increase by approximately 9.2% by 2041, adding around 1,461 persons to its population.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park when compared nationally

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park approved approximately 39 residential properties annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25197 homes were approved, with an additional 20 granted approval in FY-26. Over these five years, an average of 5 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed.

This supply lagging demand indicates heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, despite the average construction value of $235,000 being below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $7.2 million in commercial development approvals were recorded. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park shows significantly reduced construction, with 85.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. The area's new developments consist of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% attached dwellings, maintaining its traditional suburban character focused on family homes. As of now, there are approximately 659 people per dwelling approval in the location.

Future projections estimate Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park to add 1,307 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that could impact the region. Notable ones include Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Favco Industrial Park, Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreation Centre, and Prestons Industrial Estate. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Hoxton Park-Carnes Hill-Horningsea Park has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.8%, and there was an estimated employment growth of 5.1% over the past year.

This rate is 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.0% compared to the regional 11.5%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally, as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 5.1%, labour force by 4.6%, and unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and a rise in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, better than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hoxton Park-Carnes Hill-Horningsea Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, assuming constant population growth.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch reports that, based on its aggregation of postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,541 and an average income of $63,574. Nationally, the median was $56,994 and the average was $80,856. By September 2025, with a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,166 (median) and $71,571 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household incomes ranked at the 80th percentile ($2,248 weekly), while personal income ranked at the 40th percentile. Income brackets showed that 37.9% of locals (5,376 people) fell into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to regional levels where this cohort represented 30.9%. Notably, 31.2% earned more than $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power. Despite high housing costs consuming 18.7% of income, disposable income ranked at the 76th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park, as per the latest Census, 94.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 5.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Sydney metro's figures of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in this area stood at 20.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.8% and rented ones at 22.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,342, below Sydney metro's average of $2,475. The median weekly rent was $500, slightly higher than Sydney metro's figure of $490. Nationally, the area's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863, and rents substantially above the national average of $375.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 90.6% of all households, including 60.1% couples with children, 15.7% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 9.4%, with lone person households at 8.5% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

Educational attainment in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.2%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (19.0%). Educational participation is high, with 35.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 12.7% in primary, 11.0% in secondary, and 5.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.7% in primary education, 11.0% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the area comprising Hoxton Park, Carnes Hill, and Horningsea Park shows that there are 45 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 74 individual routes providing service to the area. Collectively, these routes facilitate 2,401 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of public transport in this region is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 214 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 343 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is slightly lower than the average SA2 area at approximately 51% of the total population (~7,262 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (5.9%) and diabetes (5.3%), while 79.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 77.9% in Greater Sydney. The area has 10.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,449 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average but require more attention than the broader population.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hoxton Park-Carnes Hill-Horningsea Park has high cultural diversity, with 46.0% of its population born overseas and 59.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in this area, comprising 58.1%. Islam is overrepresented here compared to Greater Sydney, making up 14.0% versus 12.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (33.9%), Australian (10.8%), and English (8.2%). Notably, Serbian (2.6%) and Spanish (1.2%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively. Lebanese ethnicity is equally represented at 4.0%.

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, this area has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 15.1% to 16.3%, while the 65-74 age group has risen from 5.6% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 17.4% to 16.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Hoxton Park - Carnes Hill - Horningsea Park's population. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 162%, adding 616 residents to reach a total of 997. This growth will be primarily driven by the aging of its current residents, with those aged 65 and older representing 69% of anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.