Casula

Population growth drivers in Casula are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, Casula's population is estimated at around 17,662. This reflects an increase of 1,078 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,584. The change is inferred from the resident population of 16,801, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 179 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,498 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Casula's growth rate of 6.5% since census positions it within 1.1 percentage points of the state (7.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median growth is projected, with Casula expected to expand by 2,769 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 10.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Casula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Casula shows around 78 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 390 homes were approved, with an additional 38 approved so far in FY26. On average, 0.5 new residents arrive per new home each year over these five years.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current expectations. The average value of new dwellings is $432,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY26, there have been $16.5 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Casula has approximately 62% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 63rd percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 48.0% detached houses and 52.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a shift from the current housing mix of 71.0% houses.

This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 228 people per dwelling approval, Casula is characterized as a low density area. Future projections estimate Casula will add approximately 1,908 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Casula has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Crossroads Homemaker Centre Asset Enhancement, 60 Hill Road Lurnea Development, DA Approved Child Care & Medical Centre in Casula, and M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Casula shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Casula has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.1% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%. In September 2025, 8,435 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate aligned with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, but workforce participation lagged at 51.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area has a specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.7% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force increased by 4.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Casula's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Casula suburb's income level is below national average according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers in Casula suburb is $46,429 and average income stands at $54,587, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $50,543 (median) and $59,423 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, individual incomes lag at the 18th percentile ($645 weekly), while household income performs better at the 48th percentile. Income brackets indicate largest segment comprises 32.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (5,793 residents), aligning with broader area where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile and area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Casula is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Casula's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.2% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Casula was at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.4% and rented ones at 32.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Sydney metro's average. The median weekly rent figure was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Casula's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Casula features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.3% of all households, including 47.2% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 17.1% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 3.2 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Casula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 24.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (19.8%). Educational participation is high, with 33.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.0% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 6.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Casula has 127 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 60 different routes, collectively facilitating 5,555 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated excellent, with residents typically located just 148 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 793 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 43 weekly trips per individual stop.

Casula's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Casula. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low, approximately 49% of the total population (around 8,578 people).

This compares to 51.8% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and diabetes, impacting 6.6 and 6.1% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 74.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Sydney. Casula has 14.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,631 people), which is higher than the 12.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges and require more attention than the broader population.

Casula is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Casula has a culturally diverse population, with 46.8% born overseas and 59.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Casula, comprising 51.7% of its population. Islam is overrepresented in Casula compared to Greater Sydney, making up 22.0% versus 17.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (27.5%), Australian (11.9%), and English (10.1%). Notably, Serbian (1.8%) and Lebanese (7.3%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.4% and 5.2%, respectively. Spanish ethnicity is also slightly overrepresented at 1.1%.

Casula's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Casula's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Relative to Greater Sydney, Casula has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population of residents aged 65-74 has grown from 7.8% to 8.3%. Conversely, the population of residents aged 0-4 has declined from 6.9% to 6.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Casula's age profile will evolve significantly. The cohort aged 75-84 is projected to grow by 71%, adding 578 residents to reach a total of 1,391. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 59% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the cohorts aged 0-4 and 5-14 are projected to experience population declines.