Carnes Hill

Carnes Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Carnes Hill statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 3,516 as of Nov 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 184 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,332. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,663 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Carnes Hill has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%, outpacing the metropolitan area. Natural growth contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 235 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carnes Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Carnes Hill experienced around 16 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Approximately 80 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional eight approved so far in FY-26.

On average, new residents gained per year for each dwelling built was estimated at 2.5 during these five financial years, suggesting solid demand supporting property values. New homes were constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $381,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill had significantly less development activity, 76.0% below the regional average per person, generally supporting stronger demand and values for established properties. New development consisted of 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 98.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 535 people per dwelling approval, Carnes Hill shows a developed market. Population forecasts indicate Carnes Hill will gain approximately 224 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carnes Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to impact this region. Key projects are Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Favco Industrial Park, Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreation Centre, and Prestons Grove Estate. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carnes Hill rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carnes Hill's workforce is highly educated with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 4.9%.

As of September 2025, 2,003 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is 64.5%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 6.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point decrease in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Statewide, NSW experienced a slight contraction in employment of 0.03% between November 2024 and November 2025, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnes Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Carnes Hill suburb had median income among taxpayers at $64,262 and average income at $77,757. Nationally, median income was $60,817 and average income was $83,003 in Greater Sydney. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $69,956 (median) and $84,646 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. As per 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 93rd percentile with weekly earnings of $2,630. Income brackets show largest segment, 35.9%, earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,262 residents), similar to regional levels at 30.9%. High earners, 40.4%, exceed $3,000 weekly. Housing costs consume 19.6% of income but strong earnings place disposable income at the 90th percentile. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnes Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carnes Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnes Hill was at 16.5%, with the rest either mortgaged (65.8%) or rented (17.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,700, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,475. Median weekly rent was recorded at $600, compared to Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Carnes Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carnes Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 93.3% of all households, including 69.3% couples with children, 13.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 6.7%, with lone person households at 5.9% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

The educational profile of Carnes Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carnes Hill's educational qualifications trail Greater Sydney's benchmarks, with 28.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (17.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 15.6% in primary, 10.8% in secondary, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnes Hill has five operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that collectively facilitate 2,026 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is good, with residents typically located 399 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 289 trips per day across all routes, amounting to approximately 405 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnes Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Carnes Hill, with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent among both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 58% of the total population (around 2,026 people), compared to 53.8% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, affecting 4.7 and 4.5% of residents respectively, while 83.9% report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.9% across Greater Sydney. As of June 2021, 8.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (288 people), which is lower than the 10.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Carnes Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnes Hill has one of the most culturally diverse populations in Australia, with 46.1% of its residents born overseas and 60.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnes Hill, practiced by 60.9% of the population. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 13.4% of Carnes Hill's population versus 12.9%.

The top three ancestry groups in Carnes Hill are 'Other' at 35.2%, Indian at 9.4%, and Australian at 9.3%. Notably, the 'Other' group is higher than the regional average of 27.3%. Additionally, Serbian (3.2% vs 1.9%), Croatian (2.2% vs 1.4%), and Vietnamese (5.4% vs 4.4%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Carnes Hill compared to Greater Sydney.

Carnes Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carnes Hill has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and Australia's national median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (19.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.2%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population of residents aged 15 to 24 has grown from 13.1% to 15.3%, while those aged 65 to 74 have increased from 3.7% to 5.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has decreased from 21.2% to 19.0%, and those aged 35 to 44 have dropped from 19.8% to 18.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Carnes Hill. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to show the strongest growth at 174%, adding 146 residents to reach a total of 231. This demographic aging trend continues as residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 70% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.