Carnes Hill

Carnes Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Carnes Hill is around 3,656. This figure reflects a growth of 324 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,332. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,623 in June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by ABS, along with an additional 49 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,769 persons per square kilometer, placing Carnes Hill in the upper quartile nationally. The suburb's 9.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both state (6.7%) and metropolitan area averages. Natural growth contributed approximately 58% to overall population gains during recent periods, with other drivers such as overseas migration and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Applying these projections, Carnes Hill is expected to expand by 238 persons to reach a total population of approximately 3,904 by 2041, reflecting an increase of around 2.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carnes Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Carnes Hill has experienced around 20 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 100 homes have been approved, with a further six approved so far in FY-26. On average, for each dwelling built over these five years, around two new residents were gained annually, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $381,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. This financial year has seen $5.7 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill records markedly lower building activity, at 70.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 98.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 316 people per dwelling approval, Carnes Hill shows a developing market. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects that Carnes Hill is expected to grow by 87 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Carnes Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects likely affecting this region: Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Favco Industrial Park, Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreation Centre, Prestons Grove Estate. The following details these key projects in order of relevance.

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Employment conditions in Carnes Hill rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carnes Hill has a highly educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2%.

As of June 2025, 1,985 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.3 percentage points lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 64.5%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. Carnes Hill has a particularly high specialization in the latter sector, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 5.2%, and labour force grew by 4.8%, causing a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with an increase in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnes Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Carnes Hill at $64,262 and average income at $77,757. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 during the same period. Using Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated current incomes are approximately $72,365 (median) and $87,562 (average). According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from August 2021, household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile ($2,630 weekly). Income distribution shows that 35.9% of locals (1,312 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with regional trends where this cohort represents 30.9%. Notably, 40.4% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing costs consume 19.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 90th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnes Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carnes Hill's dwelling structures in its latest Census report showed 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnes Hill stood at 16.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.8% and rented ones at 17.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,700, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,475. Median weekly rent in Carnes Hill was $600, higher than Sydney metro's $490. Nationally, Carnes Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carnes Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 93.3% of all households, including 69.3% couples with children, 13.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 6.7%, with lone person households at 5.9% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.4.

The educational profile of Carnes Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Carnes Hill trail regional benchmarks. 28.6% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (17.1%). Educational participation is high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.6% in primary education, 10.8% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education. Holy Spirit Catholic Primary School serves Carnes Hill, with an enrollment of 670 students as of the latest data. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnes Hill has five active public transport stops operating currently. These stops are served by a mix of bus routes, with a total of 16 individual routes in operation. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 1,882.

Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents located an average of 399 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 268 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 376 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnes Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Health outcomes data shows notable results across Carnes Hill, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 58% of the total population (~2,107 people), compared to 52.5% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 4.7% and 4.5% of residents respectively. A total of 83.9% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.9% in Greater Sydney. Carnes Hill has 8.2% of its population aged 65 and over (299 people), which is lower than the 10.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Carnes Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnes Hill has a population where 46.1% were born overseas, with 60.6% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnes Hill, practiced by 60.9%. Islam is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 13.4% versus 12.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (35.2%), Indian (9.4%), and Australian (9.3%). Notably, Serbian (3.2%) and Croatian (2.2%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively. Vietnamese ethnicity is also notably present at 5.4%.

Carnes Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carnes Hill has a median age of 33, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (19.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 12.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 13.1% to 15.3%, while those aged 65 to 74 have risen from 3.7% to 5.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has decreased from 21.2% to 19.0%, and those aged 35 to 44 have dropped from 19.8% to 18.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Carnes Hill. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 163%, adding 143 residents to reach a total of 231. This growth is primarily driven by demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older accounting for 77% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.