Carnes Hill

Carnes Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The suburb of Carnes Hill had an estimated population of around 3,527 as of May 2026, reflecting a growth of 195 people since the 2021 Census. This increase corresponds to a 5.9% rise from the previous population count of 3,332 people. AreaSearch's analysis, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and additional validated new addresses, indicates this growth. The population density ratio is approximately 2,672 persons per square kilometer, placing Carnes Hill in the upper quartile compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2016 to 2026, Carnes Hill has shown a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%, outpacing its SA3 area. Natural growth contributed significantly to this increase, accounting for approximately 58% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for the suburb are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. These projections anticipate future population dynamics to reflect an increase of just below the median for statistical areas across the nation. By 2041, Carnes Hill's population is expected to expand by approximately 207 persons, indicating a total increase of around 5.8% over the 16-year period from 2025 to 2041.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carnes Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carnes Hill has had around 15 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 76 homes were approved, with another 15 in FY-26 so far.

Each dwelling built attracted an average of 8.3 people annually over these years, indicating supply lagged demand significantly. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $381,000. Compared to Greater Sydney's regional average, Carnes Hill has had substantially less development activity, being 75.0% below the regional per capita figure. This limited new supply supports stronger demand and values for established properties.

All new construction since FY-21 has been detached houses, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes. With around 697 people per dwelling approval, Carnes Hill reflects a mature market. AreaSearch forecasts indicate Carnes Hill will gain 206 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Carnes Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely impacting the area: Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Favco Industrial Park, Prestons Grove Estate, and Prestons Distribution Centre Expansion. The following details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Carnes Hill ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Carnes Hill has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.8%. As of December 2025, 1,994 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.0% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is high at 77.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A significant portion, 42.6%, work from home, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 6.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.8%, and labour force increased by 4.6%, leading to a unemployment fall of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Carnes Hill. These projections indicate national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carnes Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, Carnes Hill had a median income among taxpayers of $64,262 and an average income of $77,757. These figures are above national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively in Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from financial year 2023 to March 2026, current estimates would be approximately $70,894 (median) and $85,782 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile with a weekly income of $2,630. The largest income bracket comprises 35.9% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, with 1,266 residents falling into this category. A substantial presence of higher earners is noted, with 40.4% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 90th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnes Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carnes Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnes Hill stood at 16.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.8% and rented ones at 17.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,700, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Carnes Hill was $600, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Carnes Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carnes Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 93.3% of all households, including 69.3% couples with children, 13.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 6.7%, with lone person households at 5.9% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Carnes Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carnes Hill's residents aged 15+ have 28.6% university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.7%, with advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 17.1%. Educational participation is high, with 37.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 15.6% in primary, 10.8% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnes Hill has five operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by seventeen different routes, collectively facilitating 2026 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 399 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily, predominantly using cars (90%), while 6% use trains. On average, there are 2 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. Notably, 42.6% of residents work from home as recorded in the 2021 Census, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 289 trips daily, equating to approximately 405 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnes Hill's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Carnes Hill. AreaSearch's assessment found mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence to be low, particularly amongst younger cohorts with very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is high at approximately 58% of the total population (~2,032 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, impacting 4.7 and 4.5% of residents respectively. A total of 83.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 9.1% of residents aged 65 and over (320 people), lower than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Carnes Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnes Hill's population is culturally diverse, with 46.1% born overseas and 60.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 60.9% of residents. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney average (13.4% vs 6.8%).

Top ancestry groups are Other (35.2%), Indian (9.4%), and Australian (9.3%), with notable differences from regional averages. Serbian, Croatian, and Vietnamese ethnicities are notably overrepresented in Carnes Hill compared to regional figures.

Carnes Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carnes Hill has a median age of 33, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.5%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, residents have aged by an average of 1.0 years, with the median age increasing from 32 to 33. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has risen from 13.1% to 15.7%, while those aged 65-74 increased from 3.7% to 5.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has decreased from 21.2% to 18.0%, and those aged 35-44 have dropped from 19.8% to 17.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carnes Hill's age profile will change significantly. The number of residents aged 75-84 is projected to grow exceptionally, increasing by 128 people (130%) from 98 to 227. This growth is part of an overall demographic aging trend, with residents aged 65 and older representing 67% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts.