Carnes Hill

Carnes Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Carnes Hill is estimated at around 3,516, reflecting an increase of 184 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of approximately 5.5%. The latest resident population figure was estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of additional 49 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,663 persons per square kilometer, placing Carnes Hill within the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2011 to 2021, Carnes Hill has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%, outpacing that of Greater Sydney. Natural growth contributed significantly to population gains during recent periods, accounting for approximately 57.9% of overall population increases.

AreaSearch's projections for the suburb are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Based on these aggregations, Carnes Hill is expected to expand by approximately 238 persons by the year 2041, reflecting an increase of around 6.3% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carnes Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Carnes Hill shows approximately 16 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 80 homes were approved, with a further 8 approved so far in FY26.

On average, each dwelling built over these years has resulted in an increase of 2.5 new residents per year, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value of new homes is $381,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill has significantly less development activity, with 76.0% below the regional average per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. New development consists of 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. This represents a notable shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 98.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 535 people per dwelling approval, Carnes Hill shows a developed market. Population forecasts indicate that Carnes Hill will gain 221 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carnes Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact this area. Key projects are Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Favco Industrial Park, Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreation Centre, and Prestons Grove Estate. The following details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carnes Hill rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carnes Hill has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 1.9%, with estimated employment growth of 5.0% in the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, 2,008 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.3% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation stands at 77.8%, exceeding Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census responses show that 42.6% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing, with the latter being particularly notable at 1.8 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 6.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census population data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising slightly by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Carnes Hill's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for local population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2023, Carnes Hill suburb had median income among taxpayers at $64,262 and average income at $77,757. These figures are above national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively across Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.86% from financial year ended 30 June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $69,956 and average income is $84,646 as of September 2025. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for 2021, Carnes Hill's household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile with weekly earnings of $2,630. Income distribution shows largest segment at 35.9% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,262 residents), similar to regional levels where 30.9% fall within this range. Higher earners make up a substantial 40.4%, indicating strong purchasing power. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 90th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnes Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carnes Hill's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 98.3% houses with 1.7% other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This contrasts with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnes Hill was at 16.5%, lower than Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.8% and rented ones at 17.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,700, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure stood at $600 compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Carnes Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carnes Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 93.3% of all households, including 69.3% couples with children, 13.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 6.7%, comprising 5.9% lone person households and 0.4% group households. The median household size is 3.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Carnes Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carnes Hill's residents aged 15+ have university degree holders at 28.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.7% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 17.1%. Educational participation is high, with 37.6% currently enrolled in formal education, including 15.6% in primary, 10.8% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.6% in primary education, 10.8% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnes Hill has five active public transport stops, all offering bus services. These stops are served by 17 different routes, together facilitating 2026 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents generally situated 399 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 90% of residents, while trains are employed by 6%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 2.0, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 42.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 289 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 405 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnes Hill's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Carnes Hill. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch, with younger cohorts showing very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover was found to be very high at approximately 58% of the total population, which is around 2,026 people. This compares to a rate of 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and diabetes, impacting 4.7 and 4.5% of residents respectively. A total of 83.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 8.9% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 312 people, lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Carnes Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnes Hill has one of the most culturally diverse populations in Australia, with 46.1% of its residents born overseas and 60.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnes Hill, accounting for 60.9% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, making up 13.4%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are 'Other' (35.2%), Indian (9.4%), and Australian (9.3%). Notably, Serbian, Croatian, and Vietnamese ethnicities are also more prevalent in Carnes Hill compared to regional averages: Serbian at 3.2% vs 0.5%, Croatian at 2.2% vs 0.7%, and Vietnamese at 5.4% vs 1.8%.

Carnes Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carnes Hill has a median age of 33, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (18.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.3%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 12.1%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 13.1% to 15.7%, while those aged 65 to 74 have risen from 3.7% to 5.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has decreased from 21.2% to 18.8%, and those aged 35 to 44 have dropped from 19.8% to 17.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Carnes Hill. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 142%, adding 135 residents and reaching a total of 230. This growth is primarily driven by demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older representing 68% of anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.