Carnes Hill

Carnes Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the suburb of Carnes Hill is estimated at around 3,516 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 184 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,332 people. The estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024. Over the past decade, Carnes Hill has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 9.9%. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to expand by 256 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 7.3% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carnes Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carnes Hill had around 15 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 76 homes were approved, with a further nine approved in FY-26.

Each dwelling built over these five years resulted in an average of 2.6 new residents per year. The average construction cost value for new homes was $381,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill had significantly less development activity, at 75.0% below the regional average per person. New construction consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's suburban character and appealing to families seeking space.

With around 696 people per dwelling approval, Carnes Hill reflected a highly mature market. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate indicates Carnes Hill will gain 256 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carnes Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to impact this region. Notable projects include Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreational Precinct, Favco Industrial Park, Carnes Hill Aquatic and Recreation Centre, and Prestons Grove Estate. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Carnes Hill rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carnes Hill has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 5.3%.

As of December 2025, 79.9% of residents participate in the workforce, higher than Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A notable 42.6% work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major industries for residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing, with the latter being particularly concentrated at 1.8 times the regional average. Professional & technical services employ only 6.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3%, labour force grew by 5.0%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% with a marginal rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnes Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on 27 June 2023 for financial year 2023, Carnes Hill had a median income among taxpayers of $64,262 and an average level of $77,757. These figures are higher than the national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively for Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $69,956, and average income is $84,646. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Carnes Hill rank at the 93rd percentile with a weekly income of $2,630. The largest income bracket comprises 35.9% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,262 residents), similar to regional levels where 30.9% fall within this range. A substantial 40.4% of residents earn more than $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 90th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnes Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Carnes Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnes Hill stood at 16.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.8% and rented ones at 17.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,700, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Carnes Hill was $600, higher than Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Carnes Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,700 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carnes Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 93.3% of all households, including 69.3% couples with children, 13.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 6.7%, with lone person households at 5.9% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Carnes Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carnes Hill's residents aged 15+ have 28.6% university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.7% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 17.1%. Educational participation is high, with 37.6% currently enrolled in formal education: 15.6% in primary, 10.8% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 37.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.6% in primary education, 10.8% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnes Hill has five functioning public transport stops, all offering bus services. Seventeen different routes operate through these stops, collectively facilitating 2,026 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 399 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most commutes are outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 90%, while trains account for 6%. On average, each dwelling owns two vehicles, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.6% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 289 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 405 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnes Hill's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Carnes Hill. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch.

Younger cohorts had very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was found to be very high at approximately 58% of the total population, which is around 2,026 people. This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and diabetes, impacting 4.7 and 4.5% of residents respectively. 83.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 9.0% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 316 people, lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Carnes Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnes Hill has one of the most culturally diverse populations in Australia, with 46.1% born overseas and 60.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 60.9%. Islam is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, making up 13.4% of Carnes Hill's population.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the largest group at 35.2%, followed by Indian (9.4%) and Australian (9.3%), which are significantly higher or lower than regional averages respectively. Notably, Serbian (3.2%), Croatian (2.2%), and Vietnamese (5.4%) groups are also overrepresented compared to regional figures.

Carnes Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carnes Hill has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Carnes Hill has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (18.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.0%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is above the national average of 12.1%. Between the 2021 Census and present, residents have aged by an average of 1.0 years, with the median age rising from 32 to 33. Specifically, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 13.1% to 15.5%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has risen from 3.7% to 5.5%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 21.2% to 18.6%, and the 35 to 44 age group has dropped from 19.8% to 17.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carnes Hill's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow exceptionally, increasing by 134 people (141%) from 94 to 229. This growth is primarily driven by demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older representing 66% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts.