Casula
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Casula are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Casula's population is 17,019 as of August 2025. This reflects an increase of 435 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,584. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,805 in June 2024 and an additional 161 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,407 persons per square kilometer, placing Casula in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Casula is expected to grow by 2,769 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 15.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Casula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Casula has seen approximately 78 dwellings granted development approval annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides this data on a financial year basis: 390 dwellings approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with an additional 5 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 0.5 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during these years, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and offering ample buyer choices while creating capacity for population growth beyond current projections. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $432,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

In FY26 to date, there have been $16.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady commercial investment activity in Casula compared to Greater Sydney, where it has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, Casula ranks among the 63rd percentile of areas assessed for new dwellings. New development in Casula consists of approximately 47% detached dwellings and 53% attached dwellings, representing a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 71% houses. This change suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects evolving lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 240 people per dwelling approval, Casula exhibits characteristics of a low-density area.

Looking ahead, Casula is projected to grow by approximately 2,551 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling population growth beyond current forecasts.

Casula has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Crossroads Homemaker Centre Asset Enhancement, 60 Hill Road Lurnea Development, DA Approved Child Care & Medical Centre in Casula, and Beech Road Multi-level Warehouse. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Casula remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Casula has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Over the past year, ending June 2025, estimated employment growth was 5.4%.

As of that date, 8,559 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate aligning with Greater Sydney's at 4.2%, but workforce participation is lower at 51.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for Casula residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4%, while labour force grew by 4.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-wide in NSW as of Sep-25, employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth lagged at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Casula's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Casula at $46,429 and average income at $54,587. This is below Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $51,350 (median) and $60,373 (average), based on a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, individual incomes in Casula are at the 19th percentile ($645 weekly), while household income is at the 49th percentile. The largest earnings segment comprises 32.8% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (5,582 residents). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Casula is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Casula's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.2% houses and 28.8% other dwellings. Compared to Sydney metro's 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings, Casula had a higher proportion of houses. Home ownership in Casula was 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.4% and rented ones at 32.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Casula was $2,167, aligning with Sydney metro's average. The median weekly rent figure in Casula was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Casula's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 than the Australian average of $1,863. Casula's median weekly rents were also higher at $450 compared to the national figure of $375.

Casula features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.3% of all households, including 47.2% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 17.1% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Casula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 24.8%, substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 19.8%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. Casula's 3 schools have combined enrollment reaching 1,943 students while Casula demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between 1 primary and 2 secondary institutions. School places per 100 residents at 11.4 fall below the regional average of 16.7, with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Casula has 102 active transport stops operating. These are a mix of train and bus stations. They are served by 59 different routes that together provide 4,808 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 149 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 686 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Casula's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows strong health metrics across Casula with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population at 6.6% for arthritis and 6.1% for diabetes. This is higher than the national average but lower than Greater Sydney's 7.2% and 5.8%. Approximately 47% (~8,032 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 50.4% and the national average of 55.3%.

About 74.4% declare no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 76.4%. Casula has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.0% (2,547 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 12.8%, presenting additional health challenges requiring more attention.

Casula is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Casula, as per the 2016 Census data, has a population where 46.8% were born overseas and 59.7% speak languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Casula, with 51.7%. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 22.0% of Casula's population (vs 17.4%).

Top ancestry groups are Other (27.5%), Australian (11.9%), and English (10.1%). Notably, Lebanese (7.3% vs regional 5.2%), Serbian (1.8% vs 2.4%) and Spanish (1.1% vs 0.8%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Casula compared to Greater Sydney.

Casula's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Casula's median age is nearly 37 years, closely matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Casula has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of residents aged 65-74 has grown from 7.8% to 8.3%, while the percentage of residents aged 0-4 has declined from 6.9% to 6.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Casula's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 77%, adding 606 residents to reach 1,391. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 52% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.