Casula
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Casula are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Casula's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 17,076, reflecting an increase of 492 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 3.0% rise from the previous figure of 16,584. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 16,804 in June 2024 and an additional 179 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,415 persons per square kilometer, placing Casula in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Considering these projections, an above median population growth is projected for the area until 2041, with an expected increase of 2,769 persons, representing a total gain of 14.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Casula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Casula has seen approximately 78 dwellings approved annually for development. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 390 homes were approved, with an additional 31 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of people moving to Casula per dwelling built over these years is about 0.5 annually.

This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with or even exceeding demand, providing more housing options and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost value for new homes in the area is around $284,000, which is lower than regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. In FY-26 alone, approximately $16.5 million worth of commercial development has been approved, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in Casula compared to Greater Sydney. When considering new dwelling approvals per person, Casula has about two-thirds the rate of Greater Sydney and ranks among the 63rd percentile nationally. The type of housing being built in Casula is shifting towards higher-density options.

Currently, around 47% of approved dwellings are detached houses, while approximately 53% are townhouses or apartments. This shift marks a significant change from existing housing patterns, which were previously dominated by houses (around 71%). This trend suggests decreasing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 240 people being added per dwelling approval, Casula reflects a relatively low-density area. Future projections indicate that Casula is expected to add approximately 2,494 residents by the year 2041. Given current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Casula has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 21 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Crossroads Homemaker Centre Asset Enhancement, 60 Hill Road Lurnea Development, DA Approved Child Care & Medical Centre, Casula, and Beech Road Multi-level Warehouse. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Casula shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Casula has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.1% in June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 5.4% over the past year.

As of that date, 8,559 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate aligned with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. However, workforce participation was lower at 51.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among Casula residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area shows particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.7% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 5.4%, while labour force grew by 4.9%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Casula's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Casula at $46,429 and average income at $54,587. This is below Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $52,284 and average $61,470, based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census records individual incomes at the 19th percentile ($645 weekly) and household incomes at the 49th percentile. Most residents (32.8%, or 5,600 individuals) earn $1,500-$2,999 weekly, similar to the broader area where 30.9% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile. Casula's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Casula is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Casula's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.2% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Casula was at 27.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (39.4%) or rented (32.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Casula's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Casula features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 81.3 percent of all households, including 47.2 percent couples with children, 18.3 percent couples without children, and 14.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.7 percent, with lone person households at 17.1 percent and group households comprising 1.7 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.2 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Casula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 24.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 31.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (19.8%). Educational participation is high at 33.0%, comprising primary education (11.0%), secondary education (9.6%), and tertiary education (6.0%).

Casula's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,943 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) and balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is conventional, split between 1 primary and 2 secondary institutions. School places per 100 residents are 11.4, below the regional average of 16.7, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, please refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Casula has 102 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 59 individual routes that collectively facilitate 4,808 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 149 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 686 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Casula's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Casula. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low, approximately 47% of the total population (~8,059 people), compared to 50.4% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and diabetes, impacting 6.6 and 6.1% of residents respectively, while 74.4% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 76.4% across Greater Sydney. Casula has 15.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,556 people), which is higher than the 12.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Casula is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Casula has a population where 46.8% were born overseas, with 59.7% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Casula, accounting for 51.7% of its population. Islam is notably higher in Casula compared to Greater Sydney, with 22.0% versus 17.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (27.5%), Australian (11.9%), and English (10.1%). Some ethnic groups have notable differences: Lebanese at 7.3% (regional average is 5.2%), Serbian at 1.8% (versus 2.4%), and Spanish at 1.1% (compared to 0.8%).

Casula's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Casula's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Casula has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of residents aged 65-74 has grown from 7.8% to 8.3%, while the percentage of residents aged 0-4 has declined from 6.9% to 6.3%. By 2041, Casula's age profile is projected to evolve significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 77%, adding 603 residents to reach a total of 1,391. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 53% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.