Casula
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Casula are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Casula's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 17,019 people. This figure represents an increase of 435 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 16,584 people. The change is inferred from ABS data indicating an estimated resident population of 16,805 in June 2024 and an additional 161 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2,407 persons per square kilometer, placing Casula in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed roughly 61% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Casula are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers and projected demographic shifts, Casula is expected to grow by approximately 2,769 persons by 2041, representing a gain of around 15% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Casula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Casula receives around 91 dwelling approvals annually. The ABS produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Between FY20 and FY25458 dwellings were approved, with 5 more recorded in FY26 so far. On average, 0.5 people move to the area per dwelling built over these five years, indicating that new supply meets or exceeds demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond forecasts.

The average construction cost of new dwellings is $432,000, below the regional average. In FY26, there have been $16.5 million in commercial approvals, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Casula has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 63rd percentile nationally. New development consists of 47% detached dwellings and 53% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles seeking diverse housing options.

With around 240 people per dwelling approval, Casula is a low-density area. By 2041, Casula is expected to grow by 2,551 residents. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Casula has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can be significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 22 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Crossroads Homemaker Centre Asset Enhancement, 60 Hill Road Lurnea Development, DA Approved Child Care & Medical Centre, Casula, and Beech Road Multi-level Warehouse. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Casula remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Casula has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 4.1% as of June 2025. This is slightly below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

There were 8,559 residents employed in Casula during this period. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. However, the area has a significant specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.7% of Casula's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4%, while labour force increased by 4.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.5 percentage points in Casula. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6% during this period. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth was 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Casula's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that Casula has incomes below the national average. The median income is $46,429 and the average income stands at $54,587. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Casula would be approximately $51,350 (median) and $60,373 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, individual incomes in Casula are at the 19th percentile ($645 weekly), while household income is at the 49th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 32.8% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (5,582 residents). This mirrors the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Casula, with only 80.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Casula is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Casula's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.2% houses and 28.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Casula stood at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.4% and rented dwellings at 32.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with the Sydney metro average, while median weekly rent was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Casula's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Casula features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.3% of all households, consisting of 47.2% couples with children, 18.3% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 17.1% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Casula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 24.8%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (19.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 33.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. Casula's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,943 students as of the latest data. Casula demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and two secondary institutions. School places per 100 residents (11.4) fall below the regional average (16.7), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Casula has 102 active public transport stops. These include train and bus services. There are 59 different routes operating in total, providing 4,808 weekly passenger trips combined.

Residents' access to transport is rated as excellent, with an average distance of 149 meters to the nearest stop. Daily service frequency averages 686 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Casula's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows strong health metrics in Casula, with low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population. However, these conditions are more prevalent among older and at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Private health cover is found to be very low, affecting approximately 47% of Casula's total population (~8032 people), which is lower than Greater Sydney's 50.4% and the national average of 55.3%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (6.6%) and diabetes (6.1%), with 74.4% declaring no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 76.4%. Casula has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 15.0% (~2547 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 12.8%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Casula is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Casula has a culturally diverse population, with 46.8% born overseas and 59.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Casula, comprising 51.7% of its population. Islam is overrepresented in Casula at 22.0%, compared to 17.4% in Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (27.5%), Australian (11.9%), and English (10.1%). Lebanese, Serbian, and Spanish ethnicities show notable divergences: Lebanese is overrepresented at 7.3% (vs regional 5.2%), Serbian is underrepresented at 1.8% (vs regional 2.4%), and Spanish shows slight overrepresentation at 1.1% (vs regional 0.8%).

Casula's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Casula's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 but slightly lower than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Casula has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.9%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 7.8% to 8.3%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 age group has decreased from 6.9% to 6.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Casula's age profile will significantly change. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 77%, adding 606 residents to reach 1,391. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 52% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups are projected to experience population declines.