Cartwright

Population growth drivers in Cartwright are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Cartwright's population is estimated at around 2,813 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 197 people (7.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,616 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,806 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,930 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cartwright's 7.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state's 6.7%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 58% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends and aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is projected for Cartwright, with the area expected to grow by 556 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 18.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Cartwright when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Cartwright recorded around 13 residential properties granted approval each year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 67 homes. So far in FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. An average of 2.6 new residents per year for each dwelling was calculated between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating healthy demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $265,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

In FY-26, $299,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. When measured against Greater Sydney, Cartwright shows approximately 67% of the construction activity per person and places among the 74th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 62.0% detached houses and 38.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets.

With around 167 people per dwelling approval, Cartwright shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections show Cartwright adding 528 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Cartwright has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects that could impact this region. Major initiatives include the M5 Motorway Westbound Upgrade, Avala Apartments Miller, Lurnea Community Hub, and Miller Road Social Housing Development. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance:.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Cartwright faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Cartwright's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 19.1% as of June 2025, showing a decrease from the previous year's estimated growth of 5.0%.

This rate is 14.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Cartwright lags at 30.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries employing residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and transport, postal & warehousing. Manufacturing stands out with an employment share of 2.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, at 2.5% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area's predominantly residential nature suggests limited local employment opportunities, as suggested by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels in Cartwright increased by 5.0%, while the labour force grew by 3.4%. This led to a decrease in unemployment rate of 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cartwright's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Cartwright's median taxpayer income was $43,046 and average income was $50,483 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average), as reported by AreaSearch using postcode level ATO data for Greater Sydney. By September 2025, these figures are estimated to reach approximately $48,474 (median) and $56,849 (average), based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022 using Wage Price Index growth. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Cartwright fall within the lowest percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The majority of locals, 26.9% (756 people), earn between $400 and $799 weekly, unlike regional patterns where earnings predominantly lie between $1,500 and $2,999 (30.9%). Financial pressure is evident, with 49.6% of households having modest weekly budgets under $800. Housing affordability is severely strained, with only 72.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the second percentile nationally.

Cartwright displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Cartwright's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 58.6% houses and 41.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Compared to Sydney metro's 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings, Cartwright had a lower proportion of houses. Home ownership in Cartwright stood at 16.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 19.9% and rented dwellings at 64.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,755, below Sydney metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Cartwright was $225, lower than Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Cartwright's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Cartwright features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.8% of all households, including 27.6% couples with children, 13.0% couples without children, and 21.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 35.0% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Cartwright faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (7.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.3%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 32.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (23.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 35.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising primary (13.6%), secondary (10.0%), and tertiary (3.8%) levels. Cartwright Public School serves the local area, enrolling 253 students as of a certain date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents in the area are 9.0, lower than the regional average of 16.6, suggesting some students may attend schools outside Cartwright.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cartwright has nine active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eleven different routes that collectively facilitate 855 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 184 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 122 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 95 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cartwright is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Cartwright faces significant health challenges with a higher prevalence of common conditions compared to average. Among older age cohorts, this prevalence is even higher. Only about 47% (~1,321 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Sydney's 50.4% and Australia's national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 8.8% and 8.7% respectively. However, 66.7% claim to be free from medical ailments compared to 76.4% in Greater Sydney. Cartwright has 13.8% of residents aged 65 and over (388 people), with seniors requiring more health attention than the broader population.

Cartwright is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cartwright's cultural diversity is high, with 45.3% of its population born overseas and 58.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cartwright, accounting for 41.9%. However, Islam is overrepresented at 22.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 17.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (27.9%), Australian (18.4%), and English (13.2%). Notably, Samoan, Lebanese, and Vietnamese ethnicities have higher representation in Cartwright than regionally: Samoan at 3.2% vs 1.3%, Lebanese at 7.7% vs 5.2%, and Vietnamese at 7.7% vs 3.6%.

Cartwright's population is younger than the national pattern

Cartwright's median age in 2021 was 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. The 5-14 age group constituted 15.4%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. The 25-34 cohort made up 12.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 13.3% to 15.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts. The 15 to 24 age cohort is projected to rise by 114 people (27%), from 421 to 536. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 cohort will grow modestly by 3%, adding 10 people.