Bonnyrigg Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bonnyrigg Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of Nov 2025, Bonnyrigg Heights' estimated population is around 7,603. This reflects an increase of 234 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,369. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 7,531 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024) and validation of seven new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,536 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Bonnyrigg Heights has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth, with Bonnyrigg Heights expected to grow by 1,505 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 18.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bonnyrigg Heights, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bonnyrigg Heights has experienced around 16 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 83 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive per new home per year over these five financial years, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions. However, recent data shows this ratio has intensified to 5.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $365,000. This financial year has seen $5.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to Greater Sydney, where Bonnyrigg Heights has significantly less development activity (52.0% below the regional average per person). This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. The area's new development consists of 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining its suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 599 people per dwelling approval, Bonnyrigg Heights reflects a highly mature market.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 1,423 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bonnyrigg Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could impact a specific region. Notable ones are Canvas at Bonnyrigg, Bonnyrigg Estate Renewal - Humphries Precinct (Canvas), Bonnyrigg Estate Renewal, and M7-M12 Integration Project. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Bonnyrigg Heights recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Bonnyrigg Heights has a skilled workforce with significant representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 5.4% over the past year.

There are 3,529 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 48.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in retail trade, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. The area specializes in manufacturing, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.8% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data on working population compared to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4%, while labour force increased by 4.3%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bonnyrigg Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Bonnyrigg Heights' median income among taxpayers is $51,034, with an average of $60,205. This is below the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,556 (median) and $65,539 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals individual incomes lag at the 8th percentile ($568 weekly), while household income performs better at the 61st percentile. Distribution data shows that 33.1% of the community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 (2,516 individuals), mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.8% of income remains for other expenses.

Bonnyrigg Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bonnyrigg Heights' dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In comparison, Sydney metro had 73.3% houses and 26.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bonnyrigg Heights was 41.0%, with the rest mortgaged (38.5%) or rented (20.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,038, higher than Sydney metro's $2,000 and national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Bonnyrigg Heights was $450, above Sydney metro's $400 and national figure of $375.

Bonnyrigg Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 89.7 percent of all households, including 50.6 percent couples with children, 19.6 percent couples without children, and 18.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 10.3 percent, with lone person households at 9.3 percent and group households making up 1.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Bonnyrigg Heights fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 25.7% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 16.3%. Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in secondary education, 9.0% in primary education, and 6.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bonnyrigg Heights has 60 operational public transport stops. These are served by buses only, with a total of 54 routes providing weekly passenger trips numbering 2,595. Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 128 meters.

Daily service frequency across all routes is 370 trips, equating to about 43 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bonnyrigg Heights's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Bonnyrigg Heights, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3860 people), compared to 47.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and diabetes, impacting 6.4 and 6.4% of residents respectively, while 76.3% declare themselves as completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.6% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 17.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (1353 people), which is lower than the 19.0% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Bonnyrigg Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bonnyrigg Heights has a high level of cultural diversity, with 54.4% of its population born overseas and 72.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Bonnyrigg Heights, accounting for 55.1% of the population. Buddhism, however, is notably overrepresented, comprising 22.4% compared to 21.7% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (32.6%), Vietnamese (15.4%), and Chinese (11.4%). There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Serbian is overrepresented at 5.9%, Samoan at 1.2%, and Spanish at 0.8%.

Bonnyrigg Heights's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Bonnyrigg Heights, as of the 2021 Census, was 38 years, closely matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bonnyrigg Heights had a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (11.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.6%). Between the 2016 Census and 2021 Census, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 3.7% to 5.4%, while those aged 15 to 24 increased from 15.0% to 16.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 decreased from 13.2% to 11.7%. By 2041, Bonnyrigg Heights is projected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The population aged 75 to 84 is expected to grow by 111%, reaching 866 people from 410. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, comprising 58% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the population aged 35 to 44 is expected to show modest growth, with an increase of just 1 resident.