Bonnyrigg Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bonnyrigg Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Bonnyrigg Heights' population is estimated at around 7,551 people. This reflects an increase of 182 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,369 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,531 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,512 persons per square kilometer, placing Bonnyrigg Heights in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 2.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 2.2%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth, with Bonnyrigg Heights expected to grow by 1,503 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 19.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bonnyrigg Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bonnyrigg Heights has seen approximately 17 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 85 homes. As of FY26, six approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive annually for each new home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand. However, this ratio has increased to 4.3 people per dwelling over the past two years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply. The average construction cost of new homes is $365,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $290,000, demonstrating Bonnyrigg Heights' residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, the area has significantly less development activity, with 51.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, Bonnyrigg Heights also reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New developments consist of 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

With around 468 people per dwelling approval, Bonnyrigg Heights shows a developed market. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 1,473 residents (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bonnyrigg Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to impact the area. Notable ones include Canvas at Bonnyrigg, Bonnyrigg Estate Renewal - Humphries Precinct, Bonnyrigg Estate Renewal, and M7-M12 Integration Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Bonnyrigg Heights recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Bonnyrigg Heights has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.8%.

As of June 2025, 3,554 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 48.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in retail trade, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Manufacturing has a significant share of employment at 2.1 times the regional level, while professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.8% versus the regional average of 11.5%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, with Census data indicating more residents work outside Bonnyrigg Heights than within it. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.8%, while labour force grew by 5.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a slight rise in its unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bonnyrigg Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, although this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data, released for the financial year ending June 2022, indicates Bonnyrigg Heights' median income among taxpayers was $51,034, with an average of $60,205. This is below the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from July 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $57,469 (median) and $67,797 (average). Census data reveals individual incomes lag at the 8th percentile ($568 weekly), while household income performs better at the 61st percentile. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 33.1% of the community, with 2,499 individuals. This mirrors regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.8% of income remains for other expenses.

Bonnyrigg Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bonnyrigg Heights' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census (2016), consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings. This compares to Sydney metro's 73.3% houses and 26.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bonnyrigg Heights stood at 41.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.5% and rented ones at 20.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,038, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Bonnyrigg Heights was $450, higher than Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Bonnyrigg Heights' mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Bonnyrigg Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 89.7% of all households, including 50.6% couples with children, 19.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 10.3%, with lone person households at 9.3% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Bonnyrigg Heights fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.5%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 25.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 16.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes secondary education (9.9%), primary education (9.0%), and tertiary education (6.2%). Bonnyrigg Heights has 3 schools with a combined enrollment of 3,118 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1026) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 2 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. The area functions as an education hub with 41.3 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 17.4, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 56 active public transport stops in Bonnyrigg Heights. These are bus stops serviced by 54 routes providing 2,521 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 128 meters to the nearest one.

Service frequency is 360 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 45 weekly trips per stop.

Bonnyrigg Heights's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Bonnyrigg Heights, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,833 people), compared to 47.7% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and diabetes, impacting 6.4% and 6.4% of residents respectively, while 76.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.6% across Greater Sydney. As of 17.9% of Bonnyrigg Heights' residents are aged 65 and over (1,351 people), which is lower than the 19.0% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors in Bonnyrigg Heights are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Bonnyrigg Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bonnyrigg Heights, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016 data, has a population where 54.4% were born overseas and 72.4% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Bonnyrigg Heights, with 55.1%. Buddhism is notably higher here compared to Greater Sydney, at 22.4% versus 21.7%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (32.6%), Vietnamese (15.4%), and Chinese (11.4%). There are notable differences in the representation of Serbian (5.9% vs regional 1.8%), Samoan (1.2% vs 1.0%), and Spanish (0.8% vs 1.0%) ethnic groups compared to Greater Sydney.

Bonnyrigg Heights's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Bonnyrigg Heights is 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bonnyrigg Heights has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (11.5%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 75-84 has increased from 3.7% to 5.4%, while those aged 15-24 have risen from 15.0% to 16.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 13.2% to 11.7%. By 2041, Bonnyrigg Heights' age composition is projected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 75-84 is expected to grow by 112%, reaching 866 from 407. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 57% of projected growth. The group aged 35-44 will have more modest growth, adding only 6 residents.