Warwick Farm

Population growth drivers in Warwick Farm are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Warwick Farm's population is estimated at around 6,707 people. This figure reflects an increase of 572 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,135 residents. AreaSearch validated this estimate following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and additional 91 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,458 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warwick Farm's growth rate of 9.3% since the 2021 Census exceeded both the state (6.7%) and metropolitan area averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year were utilized. These projections indicate a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas for Warwick Farm, with an expected growth of 674 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 10.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Warwick Farm according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Warwick Farm has recorded approximately two residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 11 homes were approved, with three more approved in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of about 19.3 new residents arriving per year for each dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

Demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $350,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. Commercial approvals have reached $53.9 million this financial year, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warwick Farm shows substantially reduced construction, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than implied by the existing pattern (20.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. The location has approximately 2636 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show Warwick Farm adding 685 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Warwick Farm has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Liverpool Health and Academic Precinct, Liverpool Civic Place, Liverpool Innovation Precinct, and Light Horse Park Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Warwick Farm faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Warwick Farm's workforce is well-educated with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 7.3%.

Estimated employment growth over the past year was 5.7%. The unemployment rate is 3.1% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags at 46.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Health care & social assistance is particularly strong with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Professional & technical employs only 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident shows a level of local employment opportunities above average. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 5.7%, while labour force grew by 4.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across sectors. Applying these projections to Warwick Farm's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Warwick Farm had a median taxpayer income of $48,664 and an average of $57,215. Nationally, these figures were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively in Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes for Warwick Farm as of September 2025 are approximately $54,801 and $64,430. The 2021 Census places household, family, and personal incomes in Warwick Farm between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 29.9% of individuals earn between $800 - 1,499, compared to 30.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 across metropolitan regions. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 73.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Warwick Farm features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warwick Farm's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 19.9% houses and 80.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's structure of 63.3% houses and 36.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warwick Farm stood at 11.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.6% and rented ones at 71.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,577, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Warwick Farm was $327, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Warwick Farm's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warwick Farm features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.4% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 16.2% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.6%, with lone person households at 37.3% and group households comprising 4.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Warwick Farm fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Warwick Farm's educational qualifications trail Greater Sydney's benchmarks; 28.4% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to the regional average of 38.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (18.7%), are held by 30.6% of residents aged 15+.

Educational participation is high with 33.3% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (9.9%), secondary (6.9%), and tertiary (6.4%). Warwick Farm Public School and Lawrence Hargrave School serve a total of 272 students, with varied educational conditions indicated by an ICSEA score of 886. Educational provision is conventional, comprising one primary and one secondary institution. Local school capacity is limited at 4.1 places per 100 residents, compared to the regional average of 16.6, leading many families to seek schooling in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warwick Farm has 27 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 13 different routes, collectively facilitating 4,613 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 131 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 659 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 170 weekly trips per individual stop.

Warwick Farm's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Warwick Farm's health data shows relatively positive results for its residents. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 50% (~3,326 people) of Warwick Farm residents have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.1% and 6.5% of residents respectively. However, 73.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Sydney. Warwick Farm has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.1% (945 people) than Greater Sydney's 12.8%. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, they present some challenges.

Warwick Farm is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warwick Farm has a population where 68.0% speak a language other than English at home, with 62.0% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warwick Farm at 44.6%. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 17.9% of Warwick Farm's population versus 17.4% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups are Other at 34.8%, English at 10.0%, and Australian at 9.6%. Notably, Serbian (4.0%), Vietnamese (6.4%), and Samoan (1.4%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.4%, 3.6%, and 1.3% respectively.

Warwick Farm's population is younger than the national pattern

Warwick Farm's median age is nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warwick Farm has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (18.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population of residents aged 65-74 has grown from 6.9% to 8.1%, while the population of residents aged 35-44 has declined from 17.2% to 16.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Warwick Farm's age profile will evolve significantly. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 24%, adding 188 residents to reach a total of 967. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.