Carramar (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Carramar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Carramar's (NSW) population is estimated at around 3,348 as of May 2026. This reflects a decrease of 127 people (3.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,475 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,344 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional three validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,381 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,224 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 36.4% in total over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Carramar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis shows Carramar had around 3 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years up to FY26. This totals an estimated 19 homes. By June 2026, 15 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests demand has likely been met by supply, offering buyers good choice.

Average dwelling value is $302,000, aligning with regional trends. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $149,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus.

Recent development comprised entirely detached houses, maintaining Carramar's suburban character and appealing to families seeking space. This contrasts with the current mix of 40% detached houses at Census. At around 1107 people per approval, Carramar is an established area with a mature population. Future projections estimate an additional 1,220 residents by 2041. If development rates continue as is, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carramar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting the region: Western Sydney Freight Line and Intermodal Terminal, Villawood East Masterplan Precinct (Lansvale & Lansdowne), Fairfield Central Transformation (Former Fairfield Chase), Bathla Group Cabramatta Mixed-Use Development.

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Employment conditions in Carramar face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carramar has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 17.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9%. As of December 2025, 1,231 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 12.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lagged at 52.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 22.1% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing had notably high concentration with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services employed only 4.7% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by the working population count compared to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.9%, and labour force grew by a similar rate, with unemployment remaining relatively stable. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Carramar. National employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carramar's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode level ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicates that median income in Carramar is $43,874 and average income is $53,202. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Carramar would be approximately $48,402 (median) and $58,692 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Carramar all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 28.8% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (964 residents), contrasting with metropolitan region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carramar, with only 77.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Carramar features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carramar's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 40.4% houses and 59.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carramar was at 24.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (26.8%) or rented (48.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent was $300, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Carramar's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carramar features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.8% of all households, including 28.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households making up 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Carramar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate was 20.1% as of 2021, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials were held by 29.5% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 18.3%. Educational participation was high, with 35.0% of residents enrolled in formal education as of the same year.

This included 10.4% in primary education, 9.8% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carramar has 27 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 7 different routes, collectively facilitating 1,567 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 125 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward; car remains the dominant mode at 75%, while train usage stands at 18%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.0, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.1% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 223 trips per day, equating to approximately 58 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Carramar is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carramar faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (1,608 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are diabetes and arthritis, affecting 6.7% and 6.4% of residents respectively. 71.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 19.0% of residents aged 65 and over (636 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Carramar is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carramar has a population where 60.1% were born overseas, and 72.6% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carramar, with 42.8% of people identifying as Christian. Buddhism is notably overrepresented, comprising 18.1% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%.

The top three ancestral groups are Other (26.6%), Vietnamese (20.7%), and Chinese (10.4%). Lebanese (6.0%) and Serbian (1.1%) ethnicities are also overrepresented, as is Samoan (1.2%).

Carramar's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carramar has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 cohort makes up 10.3% of Carramar's population, significantly higher than the Greater Sydney average, while the 35-44 age group constitutes only 12.4%, lower than the Greater Sydney average. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 11.9% to 14.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 12.1% to 11.0%, and the 85+ group has dropped from 3.8% to 2.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carramar's age profile. Notably, the 45-54 age cohort is expected to grow by 183 people, increasing from 411 to 595.