Carramar (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Carramar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Carramar (NSW) is estimated at around 3,454 people, reflecting a decrease of 21 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,475. This estimation is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 3,326 with an additional 3 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density equates to 3,488 persons per square kilometer, placing Carramar in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population growth is forecasted for Carramar, with an expected increase of 1,260 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 36.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Carramar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Carramar has seen approximately 3 new homes approved annually. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 19 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline in recent years, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which is positive for buyers.

The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $302,000, aligning with regional trends. This year, there have been $149,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature.

All new constructions have been detached dwellings, maintaining Carramar's traditional suburban character and appealing to families seeking space. This trend differs from current patterns (40.0% at Census), indicating robust demand for family homes. The location has approximately 1143 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an established market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carramar is expected to grow by 1,262 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carramar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that could affect this region: Western Sydney Freight Line and Intermodal Terminal, Villawood East Masterplan Precinct (Lansvale & Lansdowne), Fairfield Central Transformation (Former Fairfield Chase), and Bathla Group Cabramatta Mixed-Use Development. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Carramar face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carramar has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 18.0%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 1,291 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 13.8% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Carramar lags behind Greater Sydney at 56.4%, compared to 70.0%.

Based on Census responses, a moderate 22.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing is particularly notable with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population versus resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force in Carramar increased by 2.3%, while employment decreased by 1.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 3.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carramar's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.2% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Carramar is $43,874 and the average is $53,202 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $47,761 (median) and $57,916 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Carramar fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - 1499 captures 28.8% of the community (994 individuals), differing from regional patterns where $1500 - 2999 dominates with 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 77.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Carramar features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carramar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 40.4% houses and 59.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carramar was at 24.2%, with the rest either mortgaged (26.8%) or rented (48.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carramar was $1,500, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Carramar was recorded at $300, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Carramar's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carramar features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.8% of all households, including 28.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Carramar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 20.1%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.5% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 18.3%. Educational participation is high, with 35.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.8% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carramar has 27 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 7 routes, facilitating 1,567 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 125 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, predominantly by car (75%), followed by train at 18%. On average, there is one vehicle per dwelling, below the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 22.1% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 223 trips daily across all routes, resulting in approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carramar is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carramar faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population, which consists of around 1,658 people.

This compares to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%. Diabetes and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 6.7% and 6.4% of residents respectively. However, 71.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The under-65 population has better than average health outcomes. Caramar has 19.4% of residents aged 65 and over, which amounts to around 670 people, higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Carramar is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carramar, one of the country's most culturally diverse areas, has a population where 60.1% were born overseas and 72.6% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carramar, with 42.8%. Buddhism stands out at 18.1%, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 4.1%.

Top ancestry groups include Other (26.6%), Vietnamese (20.7%), and Chinese (10.4%). Notably, Lebanese are overrepresented at 6.0% compared to the regional average of 2.6%, Serbian at 1.1% versus 0.5%, and Samoan at 1.2% against a regional average of 0.5%.

Carramar's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carramar has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Carramar at 10.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average. Conversely, the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.1%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of the population aged 15-24 has increased from 11.9% to 14.3%, while the 85+ cohort has declined from 3.8% to 2.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carramar's age profile, with the 45-54 age group projected to expand by 198 people (46%), reaching a total of 627 individuals.