Carramar (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Carramar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the suburb of Carramar (NSW) is around 3,268, a decrease of 207 people from the 2021 Census figure of 3,475. This decrease, reflecting a density ratio of approximately 3,301 persons per square kilometer, places Carramar in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The population change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,267 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and validation of three new addresses since the Census date. Overseas migration contributed approximately 95% of overall population gains in recent periods for Carramar. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2-level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population growth is forecasted for Carramar, placing it in the top quartile nationally. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 1,272 persons, reflecting a total gain of 44.5% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Carramar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carramar has had around 3 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 16 homes were approved, with 1 more approved in FY-26 so far.

Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas. This year, there have been $2.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature.

Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, maintaining Carramar's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for buyers seeking space. Developers are constructing more detached housing than previously indicated (40.0% at Census), reflecting strong demand for family homes. By 2041, population forecasts estimate an increase of 1,456 residents in Carramar. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carramar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting this region. Notable projects are Western Sydney Freight Line and Intermodal Terminal, Villawood East Masterplan Precinct (Lansvale & Lansdowne), Fairfield Chase Shopping Centre Expansion, and Bathla Group Cabramatta Mixed-Use Development. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carramar face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carramar has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 18.3%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, there are 1,280 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 14.1% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lags behind at 40.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.7% of Carramar's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.8% while employment declined by 3.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 4.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insights into potential future demand within Carramar. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carramar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Carramar's median taxpayer income was $43,874 and average income was $53,202 in financial year 2022, according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data at postcode level. This is lower than the national average of $61,952 (median) and $97,074 (average). Greater Sydney's median income was $56,994 and average income was $80,856 in 2022. As of September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $49,407 (median) and $59,911 (average), based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since 2022. The 2021 Census shows Carramar's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 28.8% of individuals earn $800 - 1,499, contrasting with regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carramar, with only 77.7% of income remaining after expenses, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Carramar features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Carramar, as per the latest Census, 40.4% of dwellings were houses while 59.6% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Sydney metropolitan area had no houses or other dwellings reported in the Census data. Home ownership in Carramar stood at 24.2%, with mortgaged properties at 26.8% and rented ones at 48.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, aligning with Sydney metro's average. Median weekly rent was $300, whereas Sydney metro had no data available for these figures. Nationally, Carramar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carramar features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households account for 63.8% of all households, including 28.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

Carramar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate was 20.1% as of 2016, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials held by residents aged 15 and above stood at 29.5%, with advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 18.3%. Educational participation was high, with 35.0% of residents enrolled in formal education as of 2016.

This included 10.4% in primary education, 9.8% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education. Schools appeared to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access them in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carramar has 25 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 7 different routes that combined offer 1,325 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 125 meters from the nearest stop.

Services average 189 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Carramar are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Carramar's health indicators show below-average results. Common health conditions are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~1,569 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. Diabetes and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.7% and 6.4% of residents respectively. 71.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Sydney. The area has 19.2% of residents aged 65 and over (627 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Carramar is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carramar's population is predominantly diverse, with 60.1% born overseas and 72.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the major religion in Carramar, practiced by 42.8%. Buddhism is significantly higher in Carramar at 18.1%, compared to None% in Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.6%), Vietnamese (20.7%), and Chinese (10.4%). Notably, Lebanese (6.0%) Serbian (1.1%), and Samoan (1.2%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Carramar compared to None% in the Greater Sydney region.

Carramar's median age exceeds the national pattern

Carramar has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort in Carramar is notably higher at 10.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.3%. Between 2021 and the present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.9% to 13.9% of Carramar's population. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has decreased from 3.8% to 2.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carramar's age profile, with the 45-54 age cohort expected to grow by 214 people (53%), expanding from 408 to 623 individuals.