Carramar (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Carramar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Carramar (NSW), as of Nov 2025, had an estimated population of around 3,454, a decrease of 21 people from the 2021 Census figure of 3,475. This decrease is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,326 residents in Jun 2024 and validation of three new addresses since the Census date. The population density was approximately 3,488 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally. Overseas migration contributed about 95% of recent population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Carramar (NSW) SA2 is projected to grow by 1,271 persons, reflecting a total gain of 36.7%.

The level of residential development activity in Carramar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers derived from statistical area data, Carramar has seen approximately 3 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 19 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved so far in FY26. Despite recent population decline, development activity has been relatively adequate, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $302,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year, there have been $149,000 in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature.

All new constructions have been detached dwellings, maintaining Carramar's traditional suburban character and appealing to those seeking family homes. This pattern differs from current patterns (40.0% at Census), suggesting robust demand for family homes. There are approximately 1143 people per dwelling approval in the location, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Carramar is expected to grow by 1269 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carramar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting this region. Notable projects are the Western Sydney Freight Line and Intermodal Terminal, Villawood East Masterplan Precinct (Lansvale & Lansdowne), Fairfield Central Transformation (Former Fairfield Chase), and Bathla Group Cabramatta Mixed-Use Development.

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Employment conditions in Carramar face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carramar has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 17.9% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, there are 1,280 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 13.8% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation in Carramar lags significantly at 40.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.7% of Carramar's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

The area seems to offer limited local employment opportunities, as suggested by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force increased by 2.0% while employment decreased by 1.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 3.0 percentage points in Carramar. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by only 0.2 percentage points during the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carramar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Carramar has a median taxpayer income of $43,874 and an average income of $53,202 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Sydney having a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $47,761 and the average income $57,916, factoring in an 8.86% growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Carramar fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 captures 28.8% of the community (994 individuals), unlike regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 band dominates at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carramar, with only 77.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Carramar features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living

Census evaluation in Carramar showed 40.4% houses and 59.6% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 24.2%, with 26.8% of dwellings mortgaged and 48.9% rented. Median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, median weekly rent was $300. Nationally, Carramar's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carramar features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households account for 63.8 percent of all households, including 28.0 percent couples with children, 16.3 percent couples without children, and 17.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.2 percent, with lone person households at 32.8 percent and group households comprising 3.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people.

Carramar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area has university qualification rates of 20.1%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (18.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 35.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.4%), secondary education (9.8%), and tertiary education (6.5%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carramar has 27 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 7 different routes, together facilitating 1,567 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents usually located just 125 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 223 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Carramar are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Carramar's health indicators show below-average results with common health conditions prevalent at levels somewhat typical for the general population but higher than national averages among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low in Carramar, with approximately 48% of the total population (~1,658 people) having it, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are diabetes and arthritis, affecting 6.7 and 6.4% of residents respectively. 71.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, which is higher than the 0% reported across Greater Sydney. Carramar has 19.2% of residents aged 65 and over (663 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges requiring more attention than those for the broader population.

Carramar is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carramar has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in the country, with 60.1% of its population born overseas. A total of 72.6% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carramar, making up 42.8% of the population.

Buddhism is significantly overrepresented in Carramar compared to Greater Sydney, with 18.1% of its population identifying as Buddhist. The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.6%), Vietnamese (20.7%), and Chinese (10.4%). Notably, Lebanese (6.0%), Serbian (1.1%), and Samoan (1.2%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Carramar compared to the regional average of None%.

Carramar's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carramar has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Carramar at 10.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average. Conversely, the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.9% to 13.9% of the population. During this period, the 85+ cohort has decreased from 3.8% to 2.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carramar's age profile will significantly change. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to expand by 192 people, growing from 431 to 624.