Carramar (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Carramar reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Carramar (NSW) is around 3,454 people. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 3,475 people, representing a reduction of 21 individuals or approximately 0.6%. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date, is 3,326 people. This results in a density ratio of 3,488 persons per square kilometer, placing Carramar in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for population growth in the suburb was overseas migration, contributing approximately 95% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Carramar are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to experience significant population growth, increasing by 1,219 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This represents an overall increase of approximately 31.6% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

The level of residential development activity in Carramar is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Carramar has seen approximately 3 new homes approved each year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 19 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply is likely keeping up with demand, offering buyers good choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $302,000, in line with regional trends.

This financial year has seen $149,000 in commercial approvals registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character and appealing to those seeking space for families.

Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (40.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes. Carramar shows a mature, established area with around 1145 people per approval. Future projections estimate Carramar adding 1,091 residents by 2041 from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carramar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact the area significantly: Western Sydney Freight Line and Intermodal Terminal, and Villawood East Masterplan Precinct (Lansvale & Lansdowne). Other notable projects include Fairfield Central Transformation (Former Fairfield Chase), and Bathla Group Cabramatta Mixed-Use Development.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Carramar faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Carramar has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 16.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.5%. As of December 2025, 1,319 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 12.6% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was at 56.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 22.1% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment levels are notably high, at 2.2 times the regional average.

Professional & technical employment, however, is limited at 4.7%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 3.5% and labour force by 3.3%, leading to a slight decrease in unemployment. National employment forecasts project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carramar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Carramar is $43,874 and the average is $53,202, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Sydney's median income being $60,817 and average income $83,003. As of September 2025, estimated incomes based on Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $47,761 (median) and $57,916 (average). The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Carramar falling between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 28.8% of the population falls within the $800-$1,499 income range, contrasting with surrounding regions where the $1,500-$2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carramar, with only 77.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Carramar features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carramar's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 40.4% houses and 59.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carramar stood at 24.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.8% and rented ones at 48.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, below the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Carramar was $300, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Carramar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carramar features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.8% of all households, including 28.0% couples with children, 16.3% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households making up 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Carramar shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 20.1%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 29.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (18.3%). Educational participation is high, with 35.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.8% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carramar has 27 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by seven different routes, facilitating 1,567 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 125 meters from the nearest stop. Being predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car at a rate of 75%, while train usage stands at 18%. Car ownership averages one vehicle per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 223 trips daily, equating to approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carramar is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carramar faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment as of May 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover was very low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 1,658 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Diabetes and arthritis were found to be the most common medical conditions, impacting 6.7 and 6.4% of residents respectively, while 71.8% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. As of May 2021, the area has 19.7% of residents aged 65 and over (around 680 people), which is higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Carramar is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carramar has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in the country, with 60.1% of its population born overseas and 72.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carramar, making up 42.8% of the population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented, comprising 18.1%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Carramar are Other at 26.6%, Vietnamese at 20.7%, and Chinese at 10.4%, all substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 16.0%, 1.8%, and 3.9%. Additionally, certain ethnic groups show notable divergences: Lebanese is overrepresented at 6.0% (vs 2.6%), Serbian at 1.1% (vs 0.5%), and Samoan at 1.2% (vs 0.5%).

Carramar's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carramar has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, Carramar has an over-representation of the 65-74 age cohort (10.5% locally), while the 35-44 age group is under-represented (12.2%). Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.9% to 14.2%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has grown from 5.2% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 12.1% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carramar's age profile will change significantly. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to expand by 172 people (40%), growing from 428 to 601 individuals.