Sefton

Population growth drivers in Sefton are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The Sefton statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated population of around 6,916 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 616 people from the 2021 Census total of 6,300, marking a 9.8% increase. AreaSearch validated this estimate using resident population data from June 2024 and new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 3,821 persons per square kilometer, placing Sefton in the upper quartile nationally. This growth exceeded both state (7.6%) and metropolitan area averages, indicating Sefton as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 were used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the Sefton (SA2) is expected to increase its population by just below the median statistical area across the nation. By 2041, the area's population is projected to expand by 739 persons, reflecting a total increase of 5.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Sefton when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Sefton has averaged approximately 28 new dwelling approvals each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 144 homes were approved, with a further 23 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling built over these five years has resulted in approximately 2.5 new residents per year, indicating healthy demand that should support property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $400,000. This financial year alone, $16.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Sefton shows approximately 65% of the construction activity per person and places among the 56th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Current new development consists of 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a focus on higher-density living that creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift is notable compared to the current housing mix, which is currently 70.0% houses, indicating reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The location has approximately 276 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Sefton is expected to grow by 366 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sefton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely to affect this region: 101-103 Hector Street Sefton (Chester Square Redevelopment), Abel Tasman Village Seniors Housing, and Henry Lawson Drive Upgrade Program. The following details the most relevant projects.

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Employment drivers in Sefton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Sefton's workforce comprises skilled individuals from diverse sectors, with an unemployment rate of 9.6% as of the past year based on AreaSearch data aggregation. This rate is 5.4% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Sefton lags at 44.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. Sefton specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services employ only 7.1% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the Census working population versus resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.5%, while the labour force grew by 3.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% and unemployment increase by only 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sefton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Sefton suburb's income level is below national average, per latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $42,850, average income stands at $53,314, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $46,647 (median) and $58,038 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows individual incomes at the 7th percentile ($555 weekly), while household income is at the 37th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 31.3% of residents (2,164 people), similar to regional figures where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Sefton displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sefton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.0% houses and 30.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 62.1% houses and 37.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sefton stood at 33.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.0% and rented ones at 34.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, below the Sydney metro average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Sefton was $425, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Sefton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Sefton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.2% of all households, including 44.2% that are couples with children, 15.6% that are couples without children, and 15.7% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Educational attainment in Sefton aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 39.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (15.8%). Educational participation is high at 36.7%, comprising secondary education (12.3%), primary education (11.0%), and tertiary education (7.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.3% in secondary education, 11.0% in primary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Sefton shows that there are currently 44 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops consist of a mix of train stations and bus stops. They are serviced by a total of 15 individual routes, collectively providing 2,278 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 135 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes is around 325 trips per day, equating to roughly 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sefton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Sefton, with younger cohorts having a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 48% (~3,324 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and diabetes, affecting 5.8% and 5.6% of residents respectively. 77.6% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 77.0%. Sefton has 14.5% (1,002 people) aged 65 and over, with health outcomes among seniors requiring particular attention despite their overall strength.

Sefton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sefton has a diverse population, with 48.8% born overseas and 72.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion is Islam, making up 35.7%, compared to 29.1% in Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.5%), Lebanese (16.0%), and Vietnamese (16.0%).

Notably, Chinese (13.6%) and Korean (0.8%) are overrepresented while Samoan (0.7%) is equally represented compared to regional averages of 8.0%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively.

Sefton's population is younger than the national pattern

Sefton's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group makes up 17.1%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort is at 12.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.8% to 17.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.0% to 14.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Sefton. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise by 197 people (77%), from 255 to 453. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.