Sefton

Population growth drivers in Sefton are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, Sefton's estimated population is around 6,193 as of May 2026. This shows a decrease of 107 people since the 2021 Census, which reported 6,300 residents. The current population is inferred from AreaSearch estimates using ERP data released by ABS in June 2025 and additional validated addresses since the Census date. Sefton's population density is 3,421 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Sefton is expected to increase by just below the median of statistical areas nationally by 2041, with an estimated expansion of 664 persons reflecting a 9.5% total increase over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sefton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Sefton averaged approximately 28 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 144 homes were approved, with an additional 29 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.1 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and new properties constructed at an average value of $400,000. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $16.3 million, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Sefton exhibits approximately 65% of the construction activity per person, ranking among the 57th percentile nationally. New developments consist of 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living for affordability and lifestyle demands. Sefton currently has around 273 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

By 2041, the population is projected to grow by 589 residents based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Sefton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely impacting the area: 101-103 Hector Street Sefton and Chester Square Redevelopment. Other notable projects include Abel Tasman Village Seniors Housing and Henry Lawson Drive Upgrade Program. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Sefton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Sefton has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 9.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9%. As of December 2025, 2,556 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 5.1%, higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 57.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A high proportion of residents, 33.3%, worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. Sefton specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share twice the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employed only 7.1% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 2.9%, while labour force grew by 3.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.6 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sefton's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, although this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Sefton's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Sefton was $42,850, with an average income of $53,314. These figures compare to those for Greater Sydney, which were $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $47,272 and the average income around $58,816 as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 data, individual incomes in Sefton lag at the 7th percentile ($555 weekly), while household incomes perform better at the 37th percentile. The income distribution shows that the majority of residents (31.3%, or 1,938 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, which is similar to the regional average of 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sefton, with only 80.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Sefton displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sefton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.0% houses and 30.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sefton stood at 33.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.0% and rented ones at 34.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Sefton was $425, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Sefton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Sefton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.2% of all households, including 44.2% couples with children, 15.6% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Sefton aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The university qualification rate in the area is 22.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 39.1%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (15.8%). Educational participation is high, with 36.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.3% in secondary education, 11.0% in primary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sefton has 44 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 15 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,278 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 135 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 83%, while train usage stands at 11%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 33.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 325 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per stop.

Sefton's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Sefton. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch for both young and old age cohorts. Low prevalence of common health conditions was seen across all ages.

Private health cover was found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population, which is around 2,976 people. This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in Sefton were arthritis and diabetes, impacting 5.8% and 5.6% of residents respectively. A total of 77.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. In Sefton, 14.8% of residents are aged 65 and over, which is around 916 people. Health outcomes among seniors in the area are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sefton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sefton has a population where 48.8% were born overseas, with 72.6% speaking languages other than English at home. Islam is the predominant religion in Sefton, making up 35.7%, compared to 6.8% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.5%), Lebanese (16.0%) and Vietnamese (16.0%).

These percentages are higher than their regional averages of 2.6% for Lebanese and 1.8% for Vietnamese respectively. Notably, Chinese ancestry is overrepresented at 13.6%, compared to the regional average of 8.4%. Korean ancestry is also slightly overrepresented at 0.8%, while Samoan ancestry is higher than the regional average at 0.7%.

Sefton's population is younger than the national pattern

Sefton's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group makes up 16.7% of Sefton's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. However, the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 12.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.8% to 16.7%, while the 5-14 cohort has declined from 15.0% to 14.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant changes in Sefton's demographics. The 75-84 age group is projected to rise by 183 people (76%), from 241 to 425. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 57% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, both 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.