Sefton

Population growth drivers in Sefton are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, the estimated population of Sefton is around 6,414 people. This reflects an increase of 114 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,300 people in the suburb. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,422 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,543 persons per square kilometer, placing Sefton in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Sefton has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Considering projected demographic shifts, Sefton is expected to experience population growth just below the median of statistical areas across the nation, with an increase of 734 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 13.5% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Sefton when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Sefton averaged approximately 27 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 139 homes were approved, with an additional 11 approved so far in FY-26. Each year, for every dwelling built over these five financial years, an average of 2.6 new residents was gained, indicating strong demand which should support property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $400,000, lower than regional levels, offering more affordable housing choices to buyers. This year, Sefton recorded $20.1 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating moderate commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Sefton shows approximately 62% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 63rd percentile nationally when measured against other assessed areas. New development consists of 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a focus on higher-density living which caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 70.0% houses) is due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Sefton has approximately 228 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sefton is projected to grow by 864 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sefton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include 101-103 Hector Street Sefton, Chester Square Redevelopment, Abel Tasman Village Seniors Housing, and Henry Lawson Drive Upgrade Program. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Sefton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Sefton's workforce comprises skilled individuals with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 9.4% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.1%.

As of June 2025, 2,662 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 5.2%, above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 44.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries included health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. Sefton had a notable employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employed only 7.1% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 1.1% while labour force grew by 3.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.1 percentage points. This contrasted with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in Sep-22, projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sefton's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Sefton's median income among taxpayers was $42,850 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $53,314 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney had median and average incomes of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Sefton would be approximately $48,253 by September 2025, with the average being around $60,037. According to Census 2021 data, individual incomes in Sefton lag at the 7th percentile of $555 weekly, while household income performs better at the 37th percentile. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 31.3% of residents (2,007 people), mirroring the regional trend where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Sefton, with only 80.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Sefton displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sefton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.0% houses and 30.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 62.1% houses and 37.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sefton was 33.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.0% and rented ones at 34.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Sefton was $425, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Sefton's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $425 compared to the national figure of $375.

Sefton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.2% of all households, consisting of 44.2% couples with children, 15.6% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Educational attainment in Sefton aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.9%, which is substantially lower than the SA4 region average of 39.1%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 26.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (15.8%). Educational participation is high, with 36.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.3% in secondary education, 11.0% in primary education, and 7.1% pursuing tertiary education. Sefton's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,534 students and demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1027) with balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 23.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.2, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 40 active transport stops operating within Sefton. These consist of a mix of train and bus services. They are serviced by 17 individual routes, collectively providing 2,178 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 311 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sefton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Sefton, with younger age groups experiencing a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 48% (~3,083 individuals) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and diabetes, affecting 5.8% and 5.6% of residents respectively. A total of 77.6% report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 77.0%. Sefton has a senior population (aged 65 and over) of 14.5% (~930 individuals), with health outcomes among this group requiring particular attention despite their overall strength.

Sefton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sefton has a population where 48.8% were born overseas, with 72.6% speaking languages other than English at home. The primary religion is Islam, practiced by 35.7% of Sefton's residents compared to 29.1% in Greater Sydney. Regarding ancestry, the largest groups are Other (20.5%), Lebanese (16.0%), and Vietnamese (16.0%).

Notably, Chinese ancestry is higher at 13.6% than the regional average of 8.0%, Korean is slightly overrepresented at 0.8% compared to 0.5%, and Samoan representation is similar at 0.7%.

Sefton's population is younger than the national pattern

Sefton's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group comprises 17.1% of Sefton's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. The 25-34 cohort makes up 12.4%. Between 2021 and the present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.8% to 17.1%, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 15.0% to 14.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Sefton. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 91% from 237 to 454 people. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 50% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging population. Conversely, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.