Chester Hill - Sefton

Population growth drivers in Chester Hill - Sefton are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Chester Hill - Sefton's population is around 21,719 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 877 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,842. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 21,744 in June 2024 and an additional 120 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,987 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Chester Hill - Sefton has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 63.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 2,465 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 11.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Chester Hill - Sefton among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Chester Hill - Sefton averaged approximately 116 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 583 homes approved during this period. In FY26, up until now, 78 dwellings have been approved. Each dwelling built has resulted in an average of two new residents per year over these five financial years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $279,000, which is lower than regional levels, offering more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year, $64.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chester Hill - Sefton demonstrates approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 70th percentile nationally in terms of areas assessed. Recent construction comprises 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns where houses dominate at 72.0%. This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

Chester Hill - Sefton has around 202 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low-density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 2,440 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Chester Hill - Sefton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 28 projects that may affect the region. Notable ones include Villawood Town Centre Redevelopment (Kinara Place), Chester Square Redevelopment, Condell Park High School Upgrade, and Chester Hill Station Upgrade. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Chester Hill - Sefton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Chester Hill - Sefton has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 11.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1%.

As of September 2025, 8,065 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Sydney's at 7.2%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 40.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with a particular specialization in manufacturing at 1.8 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.8%.

Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1% while labour force grew by 3.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a smaller increase in unemployment rate at 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW up to 25-Nov-25 showed employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment was slightly higher at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggested national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chester Hill - Sefton's employment mix estimated local employment growth at 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Chester Hill - Sefton SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $39,917 and an average of $49,664 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Sydney's median income at $56,994 and average income at $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $44,951 (median) and $55,927 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. In 2021 Census figures, individual incomes were at the 4th percentile ($517 weekly), while household income was at the 30th percentile. The largest income segment comprised 30.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (6,580 residents). Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 77.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Chester Hill - Sefton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Chester Hill-Sefton, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.5% houses and 27.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 62.1% houses and 37.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chester Hill-Sefton was at 29.0%, with the rest either mortgaged (31.2%) or rented (39.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while median weekly rent was $400, also matching Sydney metro figures. Nationally, Chester Hill-Sefton's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $400.

Chester Hill - Sefton has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 76.4% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 15.5% couples without children, and 16.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute 23.6%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Educational outcomes in Chester Hill - Sefton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 39.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 28.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (17.7%). Educational participation is high, with 38.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.4% in primary education, 11.6% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chester Hill - Sefton has 147 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. There are 34 different routes serving these stops, providing a total of 3,164 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 128 meters. On average, there are 452 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chester Hill - Sefton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Chester Hill-Sefton's health outcomes show excellent results, particularly for younger age groups with low prevalence of common conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 46% (~10,012 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Arthritis and diabetes are most prevalent, affecting 6.1 and 5.8% respectively. About 77.1% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 77.0%. The area has 14.4% residents aged 65 and over (3,127 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Chester Hill - Sefton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chester Hill-Sefton is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 49.2% of its population born overseas as of the 2016 Census. In this area, 70.3% speak a language other than English at home. The dominant religion in Chester Hill-Sefton is Islam, comprising 38.2% of people, compared to 29.1% across Greater Sydney.

According to ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three groups in Chester Hill-Sefton are Other at 22.1%, Lebanese at 16.7%, and Chinese at 12.8%. Notably, Vietnamese is overrepresented at 11.6% compared to the regional average of 4.0%. Samoan and Korean are also notably present at 0.7% each, while regionally they stand at 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

Chester Hill - Sefton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Chester Hill - Sefton's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chester Hill - Sefton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (16.3%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 14.7% to 16.3%, while the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 14.1% to 13.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Chester Hill - Sefton. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 90%, adding 746 residents and reaching a total of 1,578. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 55% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups.