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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Warnbro has an estimated 11,902 residents, up from 10,741 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,161 people, or 10.8%. Growth has averaged 1.6% a year over five years. Overseas migration accounts for 65.1% of that increase. That puts 2,110 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to AreaSearch, the population of Warnbro stands at approximately 11,902 in May 2026. This represents a rise of 1,161 residents (10.8%) from the 2021 Census, which counted 10,741 individuals. This shift is calculated using the ABS June 2025 estimated resident population of 11,897 and 4 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This population level translates to 2,110 persons per square kilometer, a density that surpasses the typical result for locations evaluated nationwide by AreaSearch. The expansion of 10.8% since the 2021 census outpaced the national figure of 9.3%, positioning the area as a regional growth leader.
The primary driver of this population increase was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 65.1% of the total population gains in recent times. AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for SA2 zones, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the baseline. For SA2 areas lacking this coverage, and to calculate growth beyond 2032, AreaSearch applies age cohort growth rates from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data. Future demographic patterns suggest the location will experience growth exceeding the median for Australian statistical areas, with a projected increase of 1,712 people by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a 14.3% rise over the 16-year timeframe.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
65 new dwellings have been approved in Warnbro over the past five years, an average of 13 a year. That is 1.2 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 17, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Approvals for new dwellings in Warnbro have run at an annual average of about 13, totaling 65 residential approvals over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 16 during FY-26 so far. Because the area added an average of 13.7 new residents per year for each built dwelling over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, demand outstrips supply, a trend that typically drives up prices and intensifies buyer competition, even though new construction averages a value of $201,000—a figure below the regional standard that points to more budget-friendly options.
Furthermore, commercial approvals have reached $5.6 million this financial year, highlighting the residential orientation of the area. Development volume in Warnbro is low compared to Greater Perth, tracking 87.0% below the regional per capita average. This limited addition of new housing stock generally bolsters demand and prices for existing properties. Construction levels are similarly below the national average, reflecting a mature market environment and indicating potential obstacles to development. Additionally, all recent building activity has been concentrated in detached houses, maintaining a suburban landscape dominated by spacious family homes. The ratio of roughly 909 people per dwelling approval indicates a highly mature market phase. Projections indicate that Warnbro will gain 1,707 residents by 2041 based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. If the current rate of construction persists, the supply of housing may not keep pace with population growth, which could increase competition among buyers and support upward pressure on prices.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Warnbro
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 5 current infrastructure and development projects inside Warnbro, worth an estimated $157 million. A further 94 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $45.9 billion. 30 are already under construction and 34 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and communities. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and urban planning initiatives play a key role in regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 6 projects expected to influence the locality. Notable developments include the Waikiki/Warnbro Outdoor Recreation Space, the Koorana Reserve Sports Complex Upgrade, the Warnbro Sound Avenue and Grand Ocean Boulevard North Intersection Upgrade, and the DHA Defence Housing Program - Rockingham, with the main details provided below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Lots 4 & 17 Port Kennedy Drive Industrial Estate
DevelopmentWA is delivering a 67 hectare industrial estate at the intersection of Port Kennedy Drive and Ennis Avenue. The project will provide approximately 115 industrial lots for commercial, light and heavy industrial uses. Initial remediation and rehabilitation works are underway, with this first phase scheduled for completion in August 2026 ahead of future civil development and staged land releases.
Waikiki / Warnbro Youth Space
Planned community outdoor recreation and youth space serving Waikiki and Warnbro. The project is included in the City of Rockingham Development Contribution Plan No.2 and the Community Infrastructure Plan, with the City's latest business plan listing construction in 2031/2032 and a total project cost of AUD 1.617 million. The space is intended to support unstructured recreation such as skating, ball sports and passive recreation.
Koorana Reserve Sports Complex Upgrade
$5 million upgrade project completed in 2022 providing major refurbishment and expansion to clubrooms, two additional hectares of playing space with two new soccer fields and one cricket oval. Includes expanded cricket nets, new car park and sports floodlighting.
Kennedy Bay Coastal Precinct Development
A major coastal masterplanned precinct spanning 66 hectares along 4.5km of coastline in Port Kennedy. The development includes 445 residential lots, a coastal main street village, public jetty, nature playground, and an upgraded 18-hole Links Kennedy Bay golf course.
DHA Defence Housing Program - Rockingham
Approximately 550 new homes for defence personnel and their families in the Rockingham region, delivered under Defence Housing Australia's New Builds Volume Leasing and Build to Lease programs. Parcels will be provided by Parcel Property with homes constructed by local builders including Forma Homes and Plunkett Homes across Wellard, Baldivis, Mundijong and surrounding suburbs. The first dwellings are expected from the 2025-26 financial year with delivery continuing towards 2030.
Warnbro Sound Avenue and Grand Ocean Boulevard North Intersection Upgrade
Safety improvement project at the northern intersection of Grand Ocean Boulevard and Warnbro Sound Avenue near Warnbro Centre. The project reduced entry lanes from two to one to simplify turning movements, enhance driver awareness, reduce conflict points, lower vehicle speeds, and align with Austroads intersection design standards. Key benefits include improved road safety by eliminating lane-merging and side-swipe risks, lower vehicle speeds creating natural traffic calming, and a clearer intersection layout supporting better driver decision-making.
Kingsbridge Road - Warnbro Sound Avenue Safety Improvement
Black Spot Program safety improvement project involving the installation of median islands on approaches to the intersection of Kingsbridge Road and Warnbro Sound Avenue. The project aimed to reinforce priority, improve safety, and reduce crash risks at this identified black spot location through traffic management infrastructure improvements.
Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works
Replacement of aged lighting along the Safety Bay and Waikiki foreshore, including new light poles, luminaires and cabling, to improve safety and amenity across key beach carparks and recreation areas.
5,529 residents of Warnbro are employed, from a labour force of 6,167. Unemployment sits at 10.3%, with participation at 63.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.7% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 9,972, about 84% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce is distributed across white and blue collar jobs, with notable concentration in manufacturing and industrial categories, and an unemployment rate of 10.3%. In March 2026, 5,529 local citizens are employed, while the unemployment rate is 6.2% higher than the Greater Perth level of 4.2%, indicating space for progress, and workforce participation is low at 63.7% compared to 70.2% in Greater Perth. Census records indicate that a minor 6.1% of the workforce operated from home, though this may have been influenced by COVID-19 lockdown measures. The primary employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.
The locality exhibits a strong concentration in manufacturing, where the share of employment is 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical roles are underrepresented, accounting for 4.1% of the workforce in Warnbro compared to 8.2% in Greater Perth. A comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests this mainly residential area offers a limited number of local jobs. According to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the labor force contracted by 0.9% and employment fell by 1.3% during the year ending March 2026, leading to a 0.4 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Greater Perth saw employment grow by 2.0% and the labor force expand by 2.5%, with a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment forecasts released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 provide context for potential local demand. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future patterns. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but these rates vary significantly by sector. Applying these industry-specific trends to the local employment mix suggests Warnbro's employment could grow by 5.7% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, noting this is a basic weighted extrapolation for illustration that excludes local population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Warnbro is $1,502 a week (about $78,000 a year), with median personal income at $685 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $54,849 a year against an average of $68,683. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest postcode level ATO statistics released by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Warnbro SA2 record a median income of $54,849 and an average of $68,683. This sits slightly above the national average, comparing to a median of $60,748 and an average of $80,248 in Greater Perth. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates would be roughly $60,844 for the median and $76,190 for the average as of March 2026. Census statistics show that household, family, and individual incomes rank modestly in the area, placing within the 25th to 36th percentiles.
Income distribution data indicates that 33.7% of the community (4,010 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, which is close to the wider region where this segment constitutes 32.0%. Housing cost pressures are significant, leaving residents with only 83.4% of their income, which ranks in the 35th percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Warnbro had 3,916 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 95% detached houses and 0% apartments. 47% are owned with a mortgage, 27% rented and 26% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $320 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,517 a month. Rent absorbs 21.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 23.3%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Housing types in Warnbro at the time of the last Census consisted of 95.0% separate houses and 4.9% other options like semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative dwellings, compared to 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings in the Perth metropolitan area. Home ownership rates in Warnbro were slightly lower than the Perth metro rate, standing at 26.4%, while mortgaged properties accounted for 46.7% and rented homes made up 26.9%. The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,517 was lower than the Perth metro average of $1,907, and the median weekly rent of $320 was lower than the metropolitan figure of $350.
Nationally, mortgage payments in Warnbro are below the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the national benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Warnbro counted 3,916 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 4,339 today, averaging 2.6 people each. 30% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 23% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 74.0%, consisting of couples with children at 29.9%, couples without children at 26.5%, and single parent households at 16.5%. The remaining 26.0% are non-family living arrangements, which include lone person households at 23.2% and group shared households at 2.8%. The average household size is 2.6 residents, matching the Greater Perth average.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
12.0% of adults in Warnbro hold a university qualification, including 8.7% with a bachelor degree and 1.8% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 82% of areas nationally. A further 34.5% hold a vocational qualification. 6 schools serve the area, with 2,289 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 951 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Academic achievement shows room for growth, with university completion rates at 12.0%, which is lower than the Australian benchmark of 30.4%. This represents a potential focus area for educational development. The most common higher education qualification is a bachelor degree at 8.7%, followed by postgraduate studies at 1.8% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Technical training is common, with 44.0% of individuals aged 15 and older holding vocational qualifications, split between advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 34.5%. A high proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 28.5% of residents enrolled in an educational program.
This group is composed of 10.9% in primary school, 8.5% in high school, and 3.1% in tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Warnbro reaches 57 stops on 7 routes, timetabled for about 1,700 services a week. The typical home sits about 200 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.5 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit data shows 57 active bus stops operating in Warnbro. These transit stops are served by 7 distinct routes, which accommodate 1,714 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 201 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, resulting in outward commuting; private vehicles are the main transport mode at 82%, while 9% of commuters use the train. The average household has 1.5 vehicles. A relatively low 6.1% of the workforce worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect the pandemic conditions at that time.
Transit service frequency averages 244 journeys per day across all active routes, which is equivalent to roughly 30 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
63.1% of residents in Warnbro report no long-term health condition. 6.4% need daily assistance with core activities, and 53.3% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.5 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Assessments of mortality rates and chronic illness frequency by AreaSearch indicate notable health difficulties in Warnbro, with common conditions observed across all groups and showing higher rates among older demographics, while the share of residents with private health insurance is slightly above the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the population (~6,343 people). This compares to 59.0% for the Greater Perth area. Mental health concerns and arthritis represent the most common diagnoses, affecting 11.1% and 9.3% of the population respectively, while 63.1% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth.
The working-age cohort experiences health obstacles with elevated rates of long-term conditions. Residents aged 65 and older represent 17.3% of the community (2,055 people), which is higher than the 16.1% average in Greater Perth. Senior health outcomes present challenges, though they rank more favorably on a national scale than the overall population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
28.7% of Warnbro residents were born overseas and 6.6% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (35.2%) and Australian (26.2%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
The locality displays higher cultural diversity than average, with 6.6% of residents using a language other than English at home and 28.7% born in another country. Christianity is the primary religious affiliation, representing 40.3% of the local population. Judaism shows the most notable relative concentration at 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth. Looking at ancestral origins based on parents' birthplace, the three largest groups in Warnbro are English at 35.2% (exceeding the regional average of 28.0%), Australian at 26.2% (exceeding the regional average of 21.2%), and Scottish at 7.7%.
Other ethnic groups display distinct concentrations: Maori represents 2.1% of Warnbro compared to 0.9% across the region, Welsh is at 0.9% compared to 0.7%, and South Australian stands at 1.0% compared to 1.0%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Warnbro is 38. 26.2% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of residents is 38 years, which is close to the Greater Perth median of 37 and matches the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Perth region, Warnbro has a higher proportion of people aged 55 to 64 (12.9%) but fewer aged 25 to 34 (12.2%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket grew from 12.6% to 13.9%, and the 65 to 74 group rose from 8.6% to 9.8%. In contrast, the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 13.2% to 11.6%, and the 55 to 64 age group declined from 14.0% to 12.9%.
By 2041, demographic shifts will alter the age mix, led by a 72% increase in the 75 to 84 cohort, which will add 469 people to reach 1,121 from 651. This aging trend is highlighted by the 65+ age group accounting for 60% of the projected growth, while contractions are expected in the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age brackets.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Warnbro
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2026 last month all 5 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 4 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (10,741 at the 2021 Census → 11,902 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (507051193). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.