Shoalwater (WA)

Population growth drivers in Shoalwater are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Shoalwater (WA) is around 4,919, reflecting a growth of 551 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,368. This increase represents a 12.6% change from the previous census figure. The current population estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional three validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,914 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Shoalwater's growth rate of 12.6% since the 2021 census surpassed the national average of 8.9%, indicating it as a region with notable population growth. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains in recent periods, driving the area's demographic changes.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, to estimate future growth until 2032. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 estimates, AreaSearch uses the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data. According to these projections, Shoalwater is expected to increase its population by 418 persons to reach a total of 5,337 by 2041, reflecting a gain of approximately 5.1% over the seventeen-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Shoalwater when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Shoalwater has experienced approximately 13 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, around 67 homes were approved, with a further six approved in FY26 so far. This results in an average of 5.8 people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these years.

Supply is substantially lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $418,000. In FY26, $1.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Perth, Shoalwater has significantly less development activity, with 67.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, though building activity has accelerated in recent years.

Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 86.0% detached dwellings and 14.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 255 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. Population forecasts indicate Shoalwater will gain 251 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Shoalwater has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Oceanside Promenade and Waikiki Hotel Site Redevelopment. HMAS Stirling Infrastructure Enhancement is another key project, along with Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Shoalwater lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Shoalwater has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 7.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.3%.

As of June 2025, 2,380 residents were in work while the unemployment rate stood at 3.3%, which is above Greater Perth's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation was lower at 52.1% compared to Greater Perth's 65.2%. Employment among residents was concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and public administration & safety. The area had a particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 6.1% compared to the regional average of 8.2%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.3%, while labour force increased by 5.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 3.7% and labour force growth of 3.8%, with a 0.1 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 projected that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shoalwater's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and not accounting for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that Shoalwater's median income is $52,156 and the average income stands at $65,237. This contrasts with Greater Perth's median income of $58,380 and average income of $78,020. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Shoalwater would be approximately $59,562 (median) and $74,501 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows that incomes in Shoalwater fall between the 15th and 24th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. The $400 - 799 earnings band captures 24.9% of Shoalwater's community (1,224 individuals), unlike metropolitan trends where 32.0% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Shoalwater, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Shoalwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Shoalwater, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.0% houses and 23.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This is compared to Perth metro's 90.5% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoalwater was at 36.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.0%) or rented (33.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Shoalwater was $1,668, below Perth metro's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Shoalwater was recorded at $260, compared to Perth metro's $330. Nationally, Shoalwater's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shoalwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.2% of all households, including 20.8% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.8%, with lone person households at 39.2% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Shoalwater demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Shoalwater Trail's residents aged 15+ have a university degree prevalence of 20.5%, compared to Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common (15.0%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 45.6% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 13.0% and certificates at 32.6%. Current educational participation stands at 27.8%, including primary (10.2%), secondary (7.2%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Educational facilities are primarily located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, necessitating access to schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 31 active stops in Shoalwater, operated by buses. These are served by two routes offering 297 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent accessibility, with an average distance of 197 meters to the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 42 trips across all routes, translating to about nine weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shoalwater is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Shoalwater, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 53%, covering around 2,611 people, compared to the average SA2 area's rate of 55.3% across Greater Perth.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.6% of residents) and mental health issues (9.3%). Conversely, 64.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 68.5% in Greater Perth. Shoalwater has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 27.8%, with 1,367 people, than the 15.6% seen in Greater Perth.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shoalwater was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalwater's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 7.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 31.0% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Shoalwater, accounting for 48.0% of its population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprised 0.7%, similar to Greater Perth's figure.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (35.5%), Australian (25.2%), and Scottish (7.9%). Some ethnic groups had notable differences in representation: Welsh was overrepresented at 1.2% compared to 0.9% regionally, Dutch at 2.0% versus 1.7%, and Maori at 1.1% versus 2.0%.

Shoalwater hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Shoalwater has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Perth's figure of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 10.1% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 9.4% to 10.3%, but the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 10.4% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 85+ age group will double in size, reaching 483 people from 241. The combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 97% of total population growth, reflecting Shoalwater's aging demographic trend. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.