Shoalwater (WA)

Population growth drivers in Shoalwater are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Shoalwater (WA) statistical area (Lv2) is around 4,889, reflecting an increase of 521 people since the 2021 Census. The previous population was reported as 4,368 in the 2021 Census. This growth rate of 11.9% exceeds the national average of 9.7%. AreaSearch estimates this population based on resident population data from ERP releases by the ABS up to June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The current density ratio is 1,902 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, growth rates by age cohort from the ABS's latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023 based on 2022 data) are utilized to estimate post-2032 growth. By 2041, the Shoalwater (WA) (SA2) is projected to increase its population by 428 persons, reflecting a gain of 6.0% over the 17-year period, based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Shoalwater recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Shoalwater experienced around 11 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years (FY21 to FY25), approximately 55 homes were approved, with another 5 approved in FY26. On average, about 7.1 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY21 and FY25.

This substantial lag between supply and demand has led to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers target the premium market segment, constructing new properties at an average cost of $418,000. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $1.8 million, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Perth, Shoalwater has significantly less development activity (73.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Activity is also lower than the national average, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (77.0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 448 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate Shoalwater will gain around 291 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Shoalwater has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely affecting the region: Oceanside Promenade, Waikiki Hotel Site Redevelopment, HMAS Stirling Infrastructure Enhancement (SRF-West), and Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works. The most relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Shoalwater lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Shoalwater's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.2% in the past year, showing employment growth of 2.8%.

As of September 2025, 2,343 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.3% higher than Greater Perth's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation lags at 52.1%, compared to Greater Perth's 65.2%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and public administration & safety, with a particular specialization in the latter at 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services are underrepresented at 6.1% versus the regional average of 8.2%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8% and labour force increased by 3.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.9%. State-level data to 25-November-25 shows WA employment contracted by 0.27%, with a state unemployment rate of 4.6% compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest total employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Shoalwater's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Shoalwater suburb is $52,156 and average income is $65,237. This contrasts with Greater Perth's median income of $60,748 and average income of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated current incomes in Shoalwater are approximately $57,173 (median) and $71,513 (average). Census data from 2021 indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Shoalwater fall between the 15th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that 24.9% of individuals in Shoalwater earn between $400 and $799, compared to metropolitan trends where 32.0% earn between $1,500 and $2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Shoalwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Shoalwater's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.0% houses and 23.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Perth metro had 90.5% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoalwater stood at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.0% and rented ones at 33.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,668, lower than Perth metro's $1,733. The median weekly rent in Shoalwater was $260, compared to Perth metro's $330. Nationally, Shoalwater's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shoalwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 58.2% of all households, including 20.8% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.8%, with lone person households at 39.2% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Shoalwater demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Shoalwater Trail's educational qualifications show that 20.5% of residents aged 15 and above have university degrees, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are the most common (15.0%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 45.6% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.0% and certificates at 32.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 39 active stops operating in Shoalwater, serving a mix of buses. These stops are covered by two routes, offering 308 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 44 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shoalwater is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Shoalwater, with high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 53%, or about 2,596 people, compared to Greater Perth's 56.6%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (9.3%). About 64% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 68.5% in Greater Perth. Shoalwater has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 27.8% or 1,359 people, compared to Greater Perth's 15.6%.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shoalwater was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalwater's cultural diversity was above average, with 7.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 31.0% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.0%. The 'Other' religious category had an overrepresentation of 0.7%, compared to Greater Perth's 0.7%.

Top ancestry groups were English (35.5%), Australian (25.2%), and Scottish (7.9%). Notably, Welsh (1.2% vs regional 0.9%), Dutch (2.0% vs 1.7%), and Maori (1.1% vs 2.0%) had higher representations than the Greater Perth average.

Shoalwater hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Shoalwater has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Perth's figure of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 10.1% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 9.4% to 10.3%, whereas the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 10.4% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoalwater's age structure. The 85+ group is expected to grow by 102%, reaching 484 people from 239. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 95% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.