Shoalwater (WA)

Population growth drivers in Shoalwater are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Shoalwater (WA) is around 4,887, reflecting an increase of 519 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,368. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,798 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 11 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 1,901 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Shoalwater's growth rate of 11.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average of 9.9%. Interstate migration contributed about 63.0% to overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch utilises ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by 413 persons to reach around 5,300 by 2041, reflecting a gain of approximately 5.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Shoalwater recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Shoalwater experienced approximately 11 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 55 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved in FY-26. This results in about 7.1 people moving to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years.

Supply is lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average value of $418,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $1.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Perth, Shoalwater has significantly less development activity, 73.0% below regional average per person, which usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests, indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 448 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate Shoalwater will gain 282 residents through to 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Shoalwater has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely affecting this region: Oceanside Promenade, Waikiki Hotel Site Redevelopment, HMAS Stirling Infrastructure Enhancement (SRF-West), and Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works. Key projects are listed below for relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Shoalwater lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Shoalwater has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 7.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.7%. As of September 2025, 2,329 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.2%, above Greater Perth's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation lagged at 60.9% compared to Greater Perth's 71.6%. Only 9.1% of residents worked from home according to Census responses. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and public administration & safety, with a specialization in the latter at 1.6 times the regional level. Professional & technical employment was lower at 6.1% compared to the regional average of 8.2%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7% and labour force by 3.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth had employment growth of 2.9% and labour force growth of 3.0%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shoalwater's employment mix indicates local employment should grow by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Shoalwater, median income is $52,156 and average income is $65,237. This contrasts with Greater Perth's median income of $60,748 and average income of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes in Shoalwater would be approximately $57,173 (median) and $71,513 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Shoalwater fall between the 15th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 24.9% of individuals in Shoalwater earn between $400 - $799, compared to metropolitan trends where 32.0% earn between $1,500 - $2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Shoalwater, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Shoalwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Shoalwater's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.0% houses and 23.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoalwater was 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.0% and rented ones at 33.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,668, below Perth metro's average of $1,907. Median weekly rent in Shoalwater was $260, lower than Perth metro's $350 and the national figure of $375. Nationally, Shoalwater's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower than Australia's average of $1,863.

Shoalwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.2% of all households, including 20.8% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.8%, with lone person households at 39.2% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Shoalwater demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Shoalwater trail has 20.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding university degrees, compared to Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.7% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 13.0% and certificates for 32.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shoalwater has 40 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by two routes, offering a total of 308 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is high, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. Most Shoalwater residents commute outward daily, primarily using cars (81%), with train usage at 10%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 9.1% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 44 trips per day across all routes, resulting in about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shoalwater is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Shoalwater faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among younger and older age cohorts alike.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53%, compared to the average SA2 area, which stands at around 59% across Greater Perth (~2,594 people). Common medical conditions include arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (9.3%). Meanwhile, 64% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 28.4% (1,387 people), compared to the 16.3% in Greater Perth. National rankings for this age group are even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shoalwater was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalwater's population showed higher than average linguistic diversity, with 7.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas population was 31.0%. Christianity dominated religious demographics, accounting for 48.0%.

The 'Other' religion category was slightly overrepresented at 0.7%, compared to Greater Perth's 1.4%. Ancestral origins in Shoalwater were led by English (35.5%), Australian (25.2%), and Scottish (7.9%). Notably, Welsh (1.2%) Dutch (2.0%) and Maori (1.1%) groups were more prevalent than regional averages of 0.7%, 1.5% and 0.9% respectively.

Shoalwater hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Shoalwater has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Perth's figure of 37 and also above the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 10.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 9.4% to 10.5%, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 10.4% to 9.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoalwater's age structure. Notably, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 93%, reaching 481 people from 249. The combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 93% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25-34 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.