Warnbro

Warnbro is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

According to ABS population updates for the wider region and new address data verified by AreaSearch following the Census, the suburb of Warnbro has an estimated population of 11,989 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,161 people (10.7%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 10,828 people. This adjustment is based on a resident population estimate of 11,984 by AreaSearch, derived from the ABS ERP release in June 2025 alongside 4 validated new addresses added since the Census. This population level corresponds to a density of 861 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with typical figures across locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The 10.7% growth rate in the suburb of Warnbro since the 2021 census outpaced the national average of 9.3%, making it a frontrunner for growth in the region. Recent population expansion was driven majorly by overseas migration, which accounted for approximately 56.00000000000001% of the total population increase.

AreaSearch applies the ABS/Geoscience Australia projections published in 2024 with 2022 as the base year for each SA2 region. For locations lacking this data, and to project trends beyond 2032, growth rates by age cohort from the 2023 release of the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (using 2022 data) are utilized. Looking ahead, the suburb of Warnbro is projected to experience above-median population growth, with a forecast gain of 1,722 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2 data, representing an overall increase of 14.3% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warnbro recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch's analysis of ABS building approvals shows that the suburb of Warnbro averages about 13 residential approvals annually, with 69 dwellings approved during the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 18 approvals recorded during FY-26 so far. With an average of 13 new residents for every dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, demand runs ahead of supply, a trend that typically drives up prices and intensifies buyer competition. The average expected construction cost for new dwellings stands at $202,000, which is below regional benchmarks and points to more affordable options. Additionally, commercial approvals reached $133,000 this financial year, reflecting a low level of commercial development.

Building activity in the suburb of Warnbro is quiet, running 86.0% below the per-capita average for Greater Perth. A lack of new housing supply of this magnitude generally supports values and demand for established properties. This rate is also below the national average, reflecting the established character of the area and indicating potential planning constraints. New residential building has consisted entirely of detached houses, preserving the suburb's traditional low-density profile dominated by spacious family homes. The ratio of 790 people for every single dwelling approval highlights the suburb's quiet development landscape.

Demographic projections indicate the suburb of Warnbro will add 1,717 residents by 2041, based on the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. If residential building rates do not increase, housing supply is likely to fall behind population growth, which could increase competition among buyers and support price growth.

Warnbro has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes in infrastructure, local developments, and planning policies represent major drivers of neighborhood performance. A total of 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as having a potential impact on the local area. The most relevant developments include the DHA Defence Housing Program - Rockingham, the Schools Upgrade Fund - Rockingham and Kwinana Schools, the Waikiki/Warnbro Outdoor Recreation Space, and the Koorana Reserve Sports Complex Upgrade.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Warnbro faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

The suburb of Warnbro features a diverse workforce across white and blue-collar roles, with a notable presence in industrial and manufacturing sectors, and an overall unemployment rate of 10.3% according to AreaSearch statistical area data. As of March 2026, there are 5,575 working residents. The unemployment rate is 6.1% higher than the Greater Perth average of 4.2%, indicating potential for labor market improvement, while workforce participation is also lower at 63.6% compared to 70.2% in Greater Perth. According to the Census, a small proportion of 6.0% of working residents operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The workforce is highly specialized in manufacturing, with an employment share that is 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical roles are underrepresented, accounting for 4.0% of employment compared to 8.2% across Greater Perth. The comparison between the local working population and the resident workforce suggests a shortage of local job opportunities.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics for the broader area, the local workforce shrank by 0.9% and total employment fell by 1.3% during the year ending March 2026, leading to a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Over the same timeframe in Greater Perth, employment rose by 2.0%, the labor force expanded by 2.5%, and unemployment went up by 0.4 percentage points. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 provide a benchmark for future demand in the suburb of Warnbro. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely by sector. Weighting these projections against the employment profile of the suburb of Warnbro suggests local employment could expand by 5.7% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, though this simple extrapolation does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Taxpayer data from the ATO for the 2023 financial year shows that the suburb of Warnbro recorded a median individual income of $52,527 and an average income of $65,701. These figures are slightly below the national averages and compare to $60,748 (median) and $80,248 (average) across Greater Perth. Adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates stand at approximately $58,268 for the median and $72,882 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and personal incomes in the suburb of Warnbro in the modest 25th to 36th percentiles. The largest income cohort comprises 33.6% of residents (4,028 people) earning between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring Greater Perth where 32.0% fall into this bracket. Financial pressures are evident, with residents retaining 83.4% of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the 36th percentile for affordability.

Warnbro is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

At the time of the latest Census, the housing stock in the suburb of Warnbro consisted of 95.1% standalone houses and 4.9% semi-detached dwellings, apartments, or other structures, compared to 77.8% houses and 22.1% alternative dwellings across Greater Perth. The home ownership rate of 26.5% is slightly lower than the Perth metro average, with the remaining homes being mortgaged (46.6%) or rented (26.9%). Home buyers faced a median monthly mortgage payment of $1,517, which is lower than the Perth metro average of $1,907, while the median weekly rent was $320 compared to the metro average of $350. Nationally, mortgage repayments in the suburb of Warnbro are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are below the national median of $375.

Warnbro has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Families make up 74.0% of all households, consisting of couples with children at 29.8%, couples without children at 26.4%, and single-parent households at 16.7%. Non-family living arrangements account for 26.0%, with single-person households representing 23.1% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household occupancy of 2.6 residents matches the metropolitan average for Greater Perth.

Warnbro faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Educational attainment levels show that 11.9% of residents hold university qualifications, which is below the national figure of 30.4%. Within tertiary qualifications, bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.8% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational and technical qualifications are highly prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15 and over holding credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 34.6%.

Enrolment rates are high, with 28.6% of the population participating in formal education. This comprises 11.0% in primary school, 8.6% in high school, and 3.1% in tertiary studies.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in the suburb of Warnbro include 67 active bus and train stops. These locations are served by 17 distinct routes, which combine to support 4,015 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is favorable, with residents generally living within 200 meters of a stop. Given the residential nature of the suburb of Warnbro, commuting is largely outbound, with cars representing the main transport mode at 82%, followed by trains at 9%. Households own an average of 1.5 vehicles. A small proportion of 6.0% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Public transport services average 573 daily trips across all routes, which averages out to approximately 59 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warnbro is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mortality and chronic disease data highlight health challenges in the suburb of Warnbro, with health issues noted across multiple age groups. The rate of private health insurance is slightly above the average SA2 region at approximately 53% of the population, which represents about 6,387 people, compared to a rate of 59.0% for Greater Perth.

Mental health conditions and arthritis are the most prevalent health issues, affecting 11.1% and 9.2% of residents respectively, while 63.1% of the population reported no chronic conditions compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Health issues are notable within the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over make up 17.4% of the population (2,086 people), which is higher than the Greater Perth representation of 16.1%. Senior health outcomes align generally with national averages.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warnbro records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity in the suburb of Warnbro is above average, with 28.6% of the population born outside Australia and 6.6% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 40.2% of residents. Judaism is the most disproportionately represented non-Christian religion, accounting for 0.1% of the population compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

English ancestry is reported by 35.2% of the population, which is higher than the regional average of 28.0%, followed by Australian ancestry at 26.1% and Scottish ancestry at 7.8%. There are also distinct representations for other background groups, with Welsh heritage at 0.9% of the population (compared to 0.7% regionally), Maori at 2.0% (compared to 0.9%), and South Australian at 1.0% (compared to 1.0%).

Warnbro's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in the suburb of Warnbro is 38 years, which is close to the Greater Perth median of 37 years and matches the national median of 38 years. Compared to the wider Perth region, the suburb of Warnbro has a larger proportion of residents aged 55 - 64 (13.0%) but fewer residents aged 25 - 34 (12.3%). Between the 2021 Census and the latest estimates, the 15 to 24 age bracket rose from 12.5% to 14.0% of the population, and the 65 to 74 group grew from 8.5% to 9.9%, while the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 13.2% to 11.7%. Demographic shifts by 2041 are expected to alter the age profile, led by a 71% increase in the 75 to 84 cohort, which is projected to rise from 659 to 1,130 residents. This aging trend is highlighted by the fact that residents aged 65 and older make up 60% of the projected growth, whereas declines are expected in the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts.