Warnbro

Warnbro is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Warnbro's population is estimated at around 11,710 people. This reflects an increase of 882 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,828. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and one additional validated new address since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 841 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively inline with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warnbro's growth rate of 8.1% since the census positions it within 0.8 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch utilises growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). With these demographic trends, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The suburb of Warnbro is expected to grow by 1,875 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 16% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warnbro recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Warnbro has experienced around 13 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 69 homes. So far in FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 9.5 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average value of $202,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. There have also been $5.6 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character. When measured against Greater Perth, Warnbro has significantly less development activity, with 86.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Further, new construction has been completely comprised of standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 774 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Warnbro is expected to grow by 1,875 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Warnbro has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Eleven infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include DHA Defence Housing Program - Rockingham, Schools Upgrade Fund - Rockingham and Kwinana Schools, Waikiki/Warnbro Outdoor Recreation Space, Koorana Reserve Sports Complex Upgrade, among others listed below.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Warnbro faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Warnbro has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented in the area.

The unemployment rate was 10.0% as of June 2025. Employment grew by an estimated 2.6% over the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 5780 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 6.2%, which is higher than Greater Perth's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Warnbro was 59.7%, compared to Greater Perth's 65.2%.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Manufacturing has a particularly strong presence, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.0% of Warnbro's workforce compared to 8.2% in Greater Perth. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.6% while labour force increased by 5.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.8 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Perth saw employment grow by 3.7%, labour force expand by 3.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Warnbro. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warnbro's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Warnbro's income level is approximately average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ending June 2022. Warnbro's median income among taxpayers was $52,527 and the average income stood at $65,701, which compares to figures for Greater Perth of $58,380 and $78,020 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year ending June 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,986 (median) and $75,031 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Warnbro, between the 25th and 36th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 33.6% of residents (3,934 people), mirroring the broader area where 32.0% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 36th percentile.

Warnbro is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Warnbro, as per the latest Census evaluation, 95.1% of dwellings were houses, with 4.9% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Perth metro had 90.5% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warnbro stood at 26.5%, similar to Perth metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings made up 46.6%, while rented ones accounted for 26.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than the Perth metro average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Warnbro was $320, compared to Perth metro's $330. Nationally, Warnbro's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warnbro has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.0% of all households, consisting of 29.8% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.0%, with lone person households at 23.1% and group households making up 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Perth average.

Warnbro faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.9%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high at 28.6%, comprising 11.0% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Warnbro has a network of six schools educating approximately 2,289 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 951) and balanced educational opportunities. The schools include three primary, two secondary, and one K-12 institution.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warnbro has 69 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 16 routes, facilitating 3,955 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport access is rated good, with residents usually within 200 meters of the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 565 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warnbro is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warnbro faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 53% (~6,239 people), which is higher than the average SA2 area's rate. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Warnbro, affecting 11.1% and 9.2% of residents respectively. However, 63.1% of residents reported having no medical ailments, compared to 68.5% across Greater Perth. Warnbro has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.1% (2,002 people), compared to Greater Perth's 15.6%. The health outcomes among seniors in Warnbro are broadly similar to those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Warnbro was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warnbro's cultural diversity was above average, with 6.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 28.6% born overseas. Christianity dominated as the main religion, comprising 40.2%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.0% in Greater Perth.

The top three ancestry groups were English (35.2%), Australian (26.1%), and Scottish (7.8%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%) and South African (1.0%) groups were slightly overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Warnbro's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Warnbro is close to Greater Perth's average of 37 years, matching the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Perth, Warnbro has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (13.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). Between the 2016 and 2021 Census, the population aged 65 to 74 grew from 8.5% to 9.8%, while the 45 to 54 age group declined from 13.2% to 12.1%. By the year 2041, Warnbro's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 82%, reaching 1,169 people from 644. Those aged 65 and above are projected to comprise 62% of the population growth, while declines are forecast for the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups.