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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Warnbro has an estimated 11,991 residents, up from 10,828 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,163 people, or 10.7%. Growth has averaged 1.6% a year over five years. Overseas migration accounts for 56.0% of that increase. That puts 862 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, the suburb of Warnbro has an estimated population of approximately 11,991, established through AreaSearch's evaluation of regional ABS updates alongside 1 validated new addresses recorded post-Census. When compared against the 2021 Census count of 10,828 people, this indicates an expansion of 1,163 people (10.7%). This metric builds on an estimated resident population of 11,984 calculated by AreaSearch using the June 2025 ABS ERP release. The suburb of Warnbro exhibits a population density of 862 persons per square kilometer, aligning moderately with benchmark locations evaluated across AreaSearch assessments.
Furthermore, the 10.7% growth achieved since the 2021 census outpaced the broader national average of 9.5%, positioning the suburb as an area leader in expansion. Recent demographic expansion has been driven predominantly by overseas arrivals, which accounted for roughly 56.00000000000001% of total population additions. Projections developed by Geoscience Australia and the ABS across SA2 areas, issued in 2024 utilizing 2022 as baseline data, are incorporated in the AreaSearch model. For geographies falling outside those metrics and for forecasting extending post-2032, cohort-level projections from the 2023 ABS Greater Capital Region release (grounded in 2022 data) are applied. Evaluating future population trajectories, the suburb of Warnbro is forecast to outpace median expansion rates among statistical areas reviewed by AreaSearch, with aggregated SA2 estimates indicating an influx of 1,673 persons by 2041, representing a cumulative rise of 13.9% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
69 new dwellings have been approved in Warnbro over the past five years, an average of 13 a year. That is 1.2 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 20, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Property development metrics derived from ABS building approval data by AreaSearch reveal that Warnbro has registered an average of approximately 13 residential approvals per annum. Over the recent 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), roughly 69 dwellings were approved, alongside 20 permits issued during FY-25 to date. Over the 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), around 12.8 people arrived annually per home constructed, illustrating strong buyer competition where structural demand outstrips new construction. Average residential construction values stand at $327,000, presenting a cost profile under the regional baseline and indicating attainable construction costs for new stock.
Commercial building approvals totaled $133,000 within the current financial year, underscoring an urban landscape dominated by residential building. Residential building output in Warnbro remains heavily constrained compared with the regional environment, registering 87.0% below the Greater Perth per-capita benchmark. Such restricted supply generally reinforces valuations and demand across established stock, notwithstanding recent upticks in approval volume. Construction activity also tracks behind national standards, highlighting planning restrictions and the built-out profile of the locality. All new construction volume has consisted entirely of detached housing, maintaining low-density neighborhood character favored by buyers seeking land area. An estimated 658 people per building permit reflects an environment characterized by subdued building activity. Long-term urban growth forecasts indicate that Warnbro will absorb an additional 1,666 residents through to 2041 from the baseline of the latest quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Should current rates of home building persist, residential supply may struggle to match demographic growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and reinforcing upward valuation trends.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Warnbro
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 4 current infrastructure and development projects inside Warnbro, worth an estimated $7 million. A further 74 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $27 billion. 24 are already under construction and 29 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and communities. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Capital works, planning updates, and public initiatives play a pivotal role in shaping local community development. AreaSearch has pinpointed 12 key infrastructure projects expected to influence the district, including the DHA Defence Housing Program - Rockingham, the Schools Upgrade Fund - Rockingham and Kwinana Schools, the Waikiki/Warnbro Outdoor Recreation Space, alongside the Koorana Reserve Sports Complex Upgrade.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Waikiki / Warnbro Youth Space
Planned community outdoor recreation and youth space serving Waikiki and Warnbro. The project is included in the City of Rockingham Development Contribution Plan No.2 and the Community Infrastructure Plan, with the City's latest business plan listing construction in 2031/2032 and a total project cost of AUD 1.617 million. The space is intended to support unstructured recreation such as skating, ball sports and passive recreation.
Koorana Reserve Sports Complex Upgrade
$5 million upgrade project completed in 2022 providing major refurbishment and expansion to clubrooms, two additional hectares of playing space with two new soccer fields and one cricket oval. Includes expanded cricket nets, new car park and sports floodlighting.
DHA Defence Housing Program - Rockingham
Approximately 550 new homes for defence personnel and their families in the Rockingham region, delivered under Defence Housing Australia's New Builds Volume Leasing and Build to Lease programs. Parcels will be provided by Parcel Property with homes constructed by local builders including Forma Homes and Plunkett Homes across Wellard, Baldivis, Mundijong and surrounding suburbs. The first dwellings are expected from the 2025-26 financial year with delivery continuing towards 2030.
Warnbro Sound Avenue and Grand Ocean Boulevard North Intersection Upgrade
Safety improvement project at the northern intersection of Grand Ocean Boulevard and Warnbro Sound Avenue near Warnbro Centre. The project reduced entry lanes from two to one to simplify turning movements, enhance driver awareness, reduce conflict points, lower vehicle speeds, and align with Austroads intersection design standards. Key benefits include improved road safety by eliminating lane-merging and side-swipe risks, lower vehicle speeds creating natural traffic calming, and a clearer intersection layout supporting better driver decision-making.
Kingsbridge Road - Warnbro Sound Avenue Safety Improvement
Black Spot Program safety improvement project involving the installation of median islands on approaches to the intersection of Kingsbridge Road and Warnbro Sound Avenue. The project aimed to reinforce priority, improve safety, and reduce crash risks at this identified black spot location through traffic management infrastructure improvements.
Lots 4 & 17 Port Kennedy Drive Industrial Estate
DevelopmentWA is delivering a 67 hectare industrial estate at the intersection of Port Kennedy Drive and Ennis Avenue. The project will provide approximately 115 industrial lots for commercial, light and heavy industrial uses. Initial remediation and rehabilitation works are underway, with this first phase scheduled for completion in August 2026 ahead of future civil development and staged land releases.
Karnup District Structure Plan
The Karnup District Structure Plan is a comprehensive planning framework for a 2,000-hectare urban expansion area in the City of Rockingham. It will guide future land uses including residential precincts, a new district centre, education facilities, parks, and integration with the future METRONET Karnup Station.
Kennedy Bay Coastal Community
A $425 million mixed-use coastal masterplanned community on 66 hectares in Port Kennedy, approximately 60km south of Perth. The project delivers over 900 residential lots (180sqm to 600sqm) with land releases, house and land packages, and Into Place townhouses. Amenities include the redesigned 18-hole Links Kennedy Bay Golf Course (fully reopened November 2025 after a $18 million redevelopment by Graham Marsh Golf Design), a new clubhouse (WA Commercial Architecture Prize 2022), and Birdie Bar and Restaurant (open since 2021).The Long Point Brewing Co., a $13 million two-storey brewpub with 500-guest capacity, commenced construction in March 2025 and is expected to open in 2026. A 140m public jetty and foreshore activation precinct received planning approval in October 2025, with construction anticipated from early 2026. A village centre with boutique retail, grocer, and wellness tenancies is progressing, with Stage 3 registrations of interest open. The display village launched in 2024 remains open.
5,575 residents of Warnbro are employed, from a labour force of 6,215. Unemployment sits at 10.3%, with participation at 63.8%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.7% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 10,036, about 84% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local labor market in Warnbro displays an even distribution between blue-collar and white-collar roles, supported by a heavy industrial and manufacturing presence, with overall unemployment at 10.3% according to AreaSearch aggregated data. By March 2026, employed residents numbered 5,575, while the jobless rate sits 6.1% higher than the 4.2% recorded for Greater Perth. Labor force participation is comparatively subdued at 63.8%, trailing the Greater Perth figure of 69.9%. Census records indicate that 6.0% of local workers operated from home, though this figure was influenced by pandemic-related movement restrictions. The primary employment sectors for local residents include health care & social assistance, construction, alongside retail trade.
Manufacturing represents an especially concentrated industry locally, employing workers at 1.5 times the wider regional proportion. In contrast, professional & technical roles account for only 4.0% of resident workers compared to the 8.2% regional standard. Comparing Census resident workers against jobs based in the locality points to a restricted volume of internal employment opportunities. Analysis of ABS and SALM figures indicates that in the year leading to March 2026, local workforce size fell by 0.9% while total employment dropped 1.3%, raising unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. Over the same timeframe across Greater Perth, employment expanded 2.0%, the labor pool increased 2.5%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. National employment modeling published by Jobs and Skills Australia in Mar-26 provides broader industry demand perspectives. Across Australia, workforce numbers are projected to rise 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Weighting these sectoral projections against Warnbro's industry composition suggests an employment expansion of 5.7% over five years and 12.3% over ten years (representing an illustrative weighting model excluding localized population dynamics).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Warnbro is $1,503 a week (about $78,000 a year), with median personal income at $684 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $52,527 a year against an average of $65,701. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Taxation figures from the ATO aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 place taxpayer earnings in the suburb of Warnbro moderately beneath national benchmarks. The median taxpayer income in the suburb of Warnbro was $52,527 with an average income of $65,701, contrasted with Greater Perth benchmarks of $60,748 and $80,248. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% following financial year 2023, March 2026 estimates indicate a median of $58,268 and an average of $72,882. Census measures place household, family, and personal income brackets within the 25th to 36th percentiles.
The primary earnings bracket includes 33.6% of residents (4,028 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999, mirroring the regional concentration of 32.0%. Residual earnings after housing costs sit at 83.4%, positioning local housing affordability at the 36th percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Warnbro had 3,941 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 95% detached houses and 0% apartments. 47% are owned with a mortgage, 27% rented and 27% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $320 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,517 a month. Rent absorbs 21.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 23.3%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, the residential profile of Warnbro consists of 95.1% standalone houses and 4.9% other dwellings, including apartments and semi-detached properties, contrasting with Perth metro proportions of 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Outright home ownership stood at 26.5%, below the Perth metro standard, with mortgaged properties comprising 46.6% and rental properties making up 26.9%. Typical monthly mortgage payments were recorded at $1,517, well below the Perth metro median of $1,907 and the Australian benchmark of $1,863. Median weekly rents were $320, comparing favourably against $350 in Perth metro and $375 nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Warnbro counted 3,941 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 4,364 today, averaging 2.6 people each. 30% are couples with children, against 26% couples without children. 23% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the majority of domestic living arrangements at 74.0%, consisting of 29.8% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent households. Non-family dwellings make up 26.0%, comprising 23.1% single-person occupants and 2.8% group living arrangements. The typical household size is 2.6 people, matching the Greater Perth average.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
11.9% of adults in Warnbro hold a university qualification, including 8.6% with a bachelor degree and 1.8% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 79% of areas nationally. A further 34.6% hold a vocational qualification. 6 schools serve the area, with 2,289 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 951 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment profiles in the area show tertiary credential holders at 11.9%, considerably below the nationwide figure of 30.4%. Within higher education, bachelor degrees constitute 8.6%, followed by postgraduate awards at 1.8% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational and technical qualifications represent a major strength, with 44.2% of persons aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including 34.6% holding certificates and 9.6% holding advanced diplomas. Active participation across learning institutions is prominent, with 28.6% of the population attending an educational program. Broken down by level, 11.0% attend primary school, 8.6% are enrolled in secondary education, and 3.1% are undertaking tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Warnbro reaches 66 stops on 16 routes, timetabled for about 3,300 services a week. The typical home sits about 200 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.5 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport connectivity in Warnbro comprises 66 transport stops covering bus and rail infrastructure across 16 transit routes, generating 3,323 weekly trips. Physical access is strong, with residents situated an average of 201 meters from the nearest stop. Commuting is outwardly directed, with private cars representing 82% of journeys and rail accounting for 9%. Motor vehicle ownership stands at 1.5 vehicles per household, while 6.0% worked from home during the 2021 Census amid prevailing pandemic conditions. Transit service frequency across the network provides an average of 474 daily trips, delivering approximately 50 weekly services per stop location.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
63.1% of residents in Warnbro report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 88% of areas nationally. 6.5% need daily assistance with core activities, and 53.3% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.5 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health metrics assessed by AreaSearch regarding mortality and long-term illness highlight notable challenges across younger and older demographics in Warnbro. Coverage for private health insurance is held by roughly 53% of residents (~6,388 people), slightly above the typical SA2 level but below the 59.0% recorded for Greater Perth. Prominent chronic health issues identified within the community include mental health conditions at 11.1 and arthritis at 9.2% of residents, while 63.1% stated having no chronic conditions, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age cohorts record elevated chronic illness rates, while the population includes 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,002 people), whose health outcomes align broadly with national senior averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
28.6% of Warnbro residents were born overseas and 6.6% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (35.2%) and Australian (26.1%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures indicate above-average representation in Warnbro, where 28.6% of residents were born overseas and 6.6% speak a non-English language at home. Christianity is the predominant religious faith, practiced by 40.2% of residents. Judaism represents 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth. Parental birth origins show English ancestry leading at 35.2% of the local population (above the 28.0% regional level), followed by Australian at 26.1% and Scottish at 7.8%. Other distinctive ancestries include Maori background at 2.0% (compared to 0.9% regionally), Welsh at 0.9% (versus 0.7% across the region), and South Australian heritage at 1.0% (matching the 1.0% regional rate).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Warnbro is 38. 26.9% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The age profile of Warnbro aligns closely with Greater Perth, showing a maximum variance of 4.4 percentage points across major age cohorts. As at August 2026, the estimated median age is 38, identical to the 2021 Census and 1 year older than Greater Perth's Census figure of 37. The most pronounced shift since the Census occurred among residents aged 45 - 64, decreasing from 27.2% to an estimated 24.4%. Projections to 2041 anticipate that senior cohorts aged 65+ will account for the bulk of population growth, rising by 1,106 residents (55%) to reach 3,108.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Warnbro
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · Jun 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | May 2026 4 months ago all 4 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 6 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 2 months ago all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 1 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (10,828 at the 2021 Census → 11,991 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL51534). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.