Safety Bay - Shoalwater
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Safety Bay - Shoalwater reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Safety Bay - Shoalwater's population was 12,039 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it had increased to around 13,140, a rise of 1,101 people (9.1%). This growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 13,131 as of June 2024 and the addition of 8 new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 1,827 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Between 2021 and 2025, Safety Bay - Shoalwater's growth rate exceeded the national average (8.9%), making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 62.6% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch projects future population trends using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, AreaSearch uses ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data. By 2041, Safety Bay - Shoalwater's population is expected to increase by around 813 persons, a total gain of 6.1% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Safety Bay - Shoalwater when compared nationally

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has seen approximately 33 dwelling approvals per year. From financial years FY-21 to FY-25, around 166 homes were approved, with another 9 approved in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of 6.4 new residents arriving annually for each dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

Commercial approvals this year total $3.8 million, indicating a primarily residential area. Compared to Greater Perth, Safety Bay - Shoalwater records significantly lower building activity, at 70.0% below the regional average per person. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $316,000. The area's new building activity consists of 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% attached dwellings. There are approximately 343 people per dwelling approval in Safety Bay - Shoalwater.

Population forecasts suggest the area will gain around 804 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Oceanside Promenade, The Strand at Safety Bay, Safety Bay Road & Penguin Road Mixed-Use Precinct (Proposed), and Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Safety Bay - Shoalwater recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.4%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.5% over the past year.

There are 6,597 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than Greater Perth's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation lags at 54.9%, compared to Greater Perth's 65.2%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 8.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.5%, while labour force increased by 5.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 3.7% and labour force growth of 3.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Safety Bay - Shoalwater's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Safety Bay - Shoalwater had a median income among taxpayers of $53,386 and an average of $66,775. Nationally, this is slightly above average. In Greater Perth, the median was $58,380 with an average of $78,020. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Safety Bay - Shoalwater are approximately $60,967 (median) and $76,257 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Safety Bay - Shoalwater rank modestly, between the 24th and 27th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution data shows 27.9% of the population (3,666 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, comparable to the metropolitan region's 32.0%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Safety Bay - Shoalwater, as per the latest Census data, 87.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 12.7% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Perth metro's 90.5% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Safety Bay - Shoalwater stood at 39.7%, with mortgaged properties at 35.1% and rented ones at 25.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,674, lower than Perth metro's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Safety Bay - Shoalwater was $300, compared to Perth metro's $330. Nationally, Safety Bay - Shoalwater's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.3% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 29.9% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Safety Bay - Shoalwater fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (32.8%).

Educational participation is high at 26.6%, including primary education (9.9%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (3.5%). The area's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,850 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 981) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes one primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 86 active stops operating within Safety Bay - Shoalwater. These comprise a mix of buses servicing six routes. The total weekly passenger trips amount to 1594.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents located an average of 188 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 227 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Safety Bay - Shoalwater faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~6,885 people), compared to 55.3% across Greater Perth.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.2 and 8.7% of residents respectively. 64.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.5% across Greater Perth. The area has 25.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,282 people), which is higher than the 15.6% in Greater Perth.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Safety Bay - Shoalwater was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Safety Bay-Shoalwater's cultural diversity is above average, with 6.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 30.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Safety Bay-Shoalwater, comprising 46.0% of its population. Notably, Buddhism is overrepresented, making up 1.3% compared to 1.0% across Greater Perth.

The top three ancestry groups are English (37.1%), Australian (25.4%), and Scottish (8.2%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Welsh at 1.1%, Dutch at 1.8%, and Maori at 1.1%.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is 46 years, notably exceeding Greater Perth's average of 37 years and the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Perth, the 65-74 age cohort is over-represented at 12.7% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has grown from 9.4% to 10.5%, and the 55-64 cohort has declined from 14.8% to 14.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 85+ age cohort is projected to surge by 465 people (103%), from 453 to 919. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 89% of the projected growth, while the 25-34 and 0-4 cohorts are forecasted to experience population declines.