Safety Bay - Shoalwater
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Safety Bay - Shoalwater reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Safety Bay - Shoalwater's population was 12,039 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, it increased to around 13,139, reflecting a growth of 1,100 people (9.1%) since the 2021 Census. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,133 in June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was 1,827 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Safety Bay - Shoalwater's growth rate of 9.1% exceeded the national average of 8.6%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 62.6% to this population gain.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch utilises ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with an expected growth of 813 persons to 2041, representing a total gain of 6.1% over 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Safety Bay - Shoalwater when compared nationally

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has received approximately 33 dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis, with 166 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and five approvals so far in FY-26. Each dwelling built has attracted an average of 6.4 people annually over these five years, indicating substantial demand outstripping supply, which typically drives buyer competition and price pressures. The average construction cost for new dwellings is $418,000.

This financial year has seen $3.8 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential focus. Compared to Greater Perth, Safety Bay - Shoalwater records significantly lower building activity, 70.0% below the regional average per person, which usually strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also lower than national levels, implying market maturity and potential development constraints. Recent construction consists of 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban character and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 343 people per approval, Safety Bay - Shoalwater shows a mature market.

By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 805 residents. Current construction levels are expected to meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 9 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works, Waikiki Hotel Site Redevelopment, Seaside Estate Madora Bay, and Schools Upgrade Fund - Rockingham and Kwinana Schools. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Safety Bay - Shoalwater has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Safety Bay - Shoalwater had an unemployment rate of 5.4% in June 2025, with estimated employment growth of 4.5% over the past year. As of that date, 6,597 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.6% higher than Greater Perth's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation lagged at 54.9%, compared to Greater Perth's 65.2%. The dominant employment sectors among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Manufacturing had a particularly high representation with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level, while professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.3% compared to the regional average of 8.2%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population.

Over the past year, employment increased by 4.5%, and labour force grew by 5.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth saw employment rise by 3.7% with a labour force growth of 3.8%, resulting in an unemployment increase of only 0.1 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 showed WA employment contracted by 0.82%, losing 14,590 jobs, while the state unemployment rate was at 4.3%. National unemployment stood at 4.5% with national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected a five-year growth of 6.6% and ten-year growth of 13.7%, but growth rates varied significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Safety Bay - Shoalwater's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has a median taxpayer income of $53,386 and an average income of $66,775 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is slightly above the national average, which contrasts with Greater Perth's median income of $58,380 and average income of $78,020. By March 2025, considering a Wage Price Index growth of 11.61%, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,584 (median) and $74,528 (average). According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Safety Bay - Shoalwater rank modestly, between the 24th and 27th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 27.9% of the population (3,665 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.0% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Safety Bay - Shoalwater, as per the latest Census evaluation, 87.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 12.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Perth metro's 90.5% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Safety Bay - Shoalwater stood at 39.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.1% and rented ones at 25.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,674, below Perth metro's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in the area was $300, compared to Perth metro's $330. Nationally, Safety Bay - Shoalwater's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 66.3% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 29.9% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Safety Bay - Shoalwater fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is significantly lower than the Australian average, at 17.8% compared to 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common among residents with university qualifications, at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 44.8% of residents aged 15 and above, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (32.8%). Current educational participation is high at 26.6%, with 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

The three schools in Safety Bay - Shoalwater have a combined enrollment of 1,850 students. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 981) with balanced educational opportunities, including one primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Safety Bay - Shoalwater indicates that there are currently 86 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with 6 individual routes providing a total of 1,594 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 188 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are approximately 227 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Safety Bay - Shoalwater faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 52%, or about 6,884 people, compared to Greater Perth's 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.2%) and mental health issues (8.7%). Meanwhile, 64.4% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.5% in Greater Perth. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 25%, or 3,282 people, compared to Greater Perth's 15.6%.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Safety Bay - Shoalwater was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Safety Bay-Shoalwater exhibited above-average cultural diversity, with 6.2% of its population speaking languages other than English at home and 30.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 46.0%. Buddhism showed an overrepresentation, comprising 1.3%, compared to 1.0% in Greater Perth.

The top ancestry groups were English (37.1%), Australian (25.4%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notable divergences included Welsh at 1.1% (vs regional 0.9%), Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.7%), and Maori at 1.1% (vs 2.0%).

Safety Bay - Shoalwater hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is 46 years, which is higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. The cohort aged 65-74 is notably over-represented locally at 12.7%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 10.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 9.4% to 10.5%, whereas the cohort aged 55 to 64 has declined from 14.8% to 14.2%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecast for Safety Bay - Shoalwater. The population aged 85 and above is projected to increase dramatically by 465 people, rising from 453 to 919, an expansion of 103%. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 89% of the projected population growth. Conversely, the cohorts aged 25-34 and 0-4 are anticipated to experience population declines.