Safety Bay - Shoalwater

An assessment of population growth drivers in Safety Bay - Shoalwater reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Safety Bay - Shoalwater's population is around 13,349 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,310 people (10.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,039 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,131 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,856 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Safety Bay - Shoalwater's 10.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 62.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 813 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 4.5% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Safety Bay - Shoalwater when compared nationally

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has averaged around 33 new dwelling approvals per year, totalling 166 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 16 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 6.4 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $316,000. Additionally, $3.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Relative to Greater Perth, Safety Bay - Shoalwater records markedly lower building activity (70.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new properties typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. At around 343 people per approval, Safety Bay - Shoalwater reflects a transitioning market.

Population forecasts indicate Safety Bay - Shoalwater will gain 595 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 14 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Oceanside Promenade, The Strand at Safety Bay, Safety Bay Road & Penguin Road Mixed-Use Precinct (Proposed), and Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.3%, and 0.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,401 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% above Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation lags significantly (61.1% compared to Greater Perth's 71.9%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 8.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 0.9% alongside the labour force increasing by 0.8%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Greater Perth, where employment rose by 2.3%, the labour force grew by 2.6%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Safety Bay - Shoalwater. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Safety Bay - Shoalwater's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Safety Bay - Shoalwater SA2's income level is just above the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Safety Bay - Shoalwater SA2's median income among taxpayers is $55,649 and the average income stands at $69,686, which compares to figures for Greater Perth's of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,002 (median) and $76,390 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Safety Bay - Shoalwater, between the 24th and 27th percentiles. Income analysis reveals the largest segment comprises 27.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,724 residents), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 32.0% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 25th percentile.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Safety Bay - Shoalwater, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.4% houses and 12.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Safety Bay - Shoalwater was well beyond that of Perth metro, at 39.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (35.1%) or rented (25.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Perth metro average at $1,674, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Safety Bay - Shoalwater's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 66.3% of all households, comprising 25.4% couples with children, 29.9% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Safety Bay - Shoalwater fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (17.8%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (32.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 115 active transport stops operating within Safety Bay - Shoalwater comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1,593 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 189 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 9% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 8.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 227 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Safety Bay - Shoalwater faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads the average SA2 area at approximately 54% of the total population (~7,195 people). This compares to 59.0% across Greater Perth.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.2 and 8.7% of residents, respectively, while 64.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 25.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,440 people), which is higher than the 16.3% in Greater Perth, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Safety Bay - Shoalwater records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Safety Bay - Shoalwater is above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 6.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 30.7% born overseas. The main religion in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is Christianity, which makes up 46.0% of the people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 1.3% of the population, compared to 2.7% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Safety Bay - Shoalwater are English, comprising 37.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 28.0%, Australian, comprising 25.4% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 8.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Safety Bay - Shoalwater (vs 0.7% regionally), Maori at 1.1% (vs 0.9%) and Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.5%).

Safety Bay - Shoalwater hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The 46-year median age in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is notably higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 and similarly well above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Perth average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (13.0% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (10.2%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.4% to 10.7% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 14.8% to 14.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Safety Bay - Shoalwater. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 439 people (92%) from 479 to 919. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 89% of projected growth. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.