Safety Bay - Shoalwater

An assessment of population growth drivers in Safety Bay - Shoalwater reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Safety Bay - Shoalwater's population was around 13,311 as of May 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This represented an increase of 1,272 people, or 10.6%, since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 12,039. The growth was inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2025 and the Census date. The population density stood at 1,851 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Safety Bay - Shoalwater's growth exceeded the national average of 9.3%, making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 53.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and ABS Greater Capital Region projections from 2023 based on 2022 data for future growth estimates beyond 2032. Future trends suggest a population increase just below the median statistical area average by 2041, with an expected growth of 778 persons, reflecting a total increase of 5.8% over the 16-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Safety Bay - Shoalwater when compared nationally

Safety Bay - Shoalwater averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 166 homes. As of FY26, 22 approvals have been recorded. Each year, an average of 6.4 new residents is associated with every home built between FY21 and FY25. This indicates a significant demand outstripping supply, which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers.

The average construction value for new homes is $316,000. In FY26, $3.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Perth, Safety Bay - Shoalwater records notably lower building activity, with 70.0% fewer approvals per person, which can strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. This level is also below national averages, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

With approximately 343 people per approval, Safety Bay - Shoalwater reflects a transitioning market. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, the area is projected to gain 774 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely to affect the region. Notable projects include Oceanside Promenade, The Strand at Safety Bay, Safety Bay Road & Penguin Road Mixed-Use Precinct (Proposed), and Safety Bay/Waikiki Foreshore Lighting Replacement Works. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Safety Bay - Shoalwater has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate was 5.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9% over the past year. There are 6,401 residents in work, but the unemployment rate is 1.2% higher than Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation lags at 60.4%, compared to Greater Perth's 69.7%. According to Census responses, only 8.5% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area shows strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical employs only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 8.2%. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 0.9%, while the labour force grew by 0.8%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Perth saw employment rise by 2.3%, the labour force grow by 2.6%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Safety Bay - Shoalwater's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Safety Bay - Shoalwater SA2's median income among taxpayers was $55,649 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $69,686 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Perth's median and average incomes of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Safety Bay - Shoalwater SA2 would be approximately $61,731 (median) and $77,303 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Safety Bay - Shoalwater rank at the 24th percentile, family incomes at the 25th percentile, and personal incomes at the 27th percentile. Income analysis shows that the largest segment comprises 3713 residents earning between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly, which accounts for 27.9% of the total population. This is consistent with broader trends across metropolitan Perth where 32.0% fall into the same income category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Safety Bay - Shoalwater, with only 84.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Safety Bay - Shoalwater, as assessed at the latest Census, consisted of 87.4% houses and 12.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Safety Bay - Shoalwater was higher than that of Perth metro, at 39.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (35.1%) or rented (25.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,674, lower than the Perth metro average of $1,907. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Perth metro's $350. Nationally, Safety Bay - Shoalwater's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.3% of all households, including 25.4% that are couples with children, 29.9% that are couples without children, and 10.2% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Safety Bay - Shoalwater fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (32.8%). Educational participation is high, with 26.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Safety Bay - Shoalwater indicates there are 115 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 6 individual routes providing 1,593 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 189 meters from their nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 82% of residents, while trains account for 9%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census data, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions, only 8.5% of residents work from home. The service frequency averages 227 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Safety Bay - Shoalwater faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among younger and older age cohorts, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent.

The area has approximately 54% private health cover, compared to Greater Perth's 59%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.2%) and mental health issues (8.7%), while 64.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. There are 25.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,327 people), higher than the 16.1% in Greater Perth. National rankings for health indicators are also higher than the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Safety Bay - Shoalwater records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Safety Bay-Shoalwater's cultural diversity is above average, with 6.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 46.0%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 1.3%, compared to Greater Perth's 2.7%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (37.1%), Australian (25.4%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notably, Welsh (1.1%) Maori (1.1%), and Dutch (1.8%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.7%, 0.9%, and 1.5% respectively.

Safety Bay - Shoalwater hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Safety Bay - Shoalwater is 46, which is higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 and also above Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Perth, the cohort aged 65-74 is notably over-represented in Safety Bay - Shoalwater at 12.9%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 11.0%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population of those aged 15 to 24 has grown from 9.4% to 10.6%, while the population of those aged 45 to 54 has declined from 12.3% to 11.4%. By 2041, forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Safety Bay - Shoalwater. The number of people aged 85 and over is projected to grow by 95%, from 433 to 846. This growth will be driven primarily by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and over comprising 84% of the projected growth. Conversely, the populations of those aged 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 are expected to decline.