Medina

An assessment of population growth drivers in Medina reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Medina's estimated population is around 2,446 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 186 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,260 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of Medina's resident population at 2,440 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 666 persons per square kilometer. Medina's population growth rate of 8.2% since the census is within 1.7 percentage points of the national average of 9.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.0% of overall population gains in recent periods for the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch uses growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Based on these projections, above median population growth is expected for Medina. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 354 persons, reflecting a total increase of 12.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Medina according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data indicates Medina has recorded approximately 4 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY21 and FY25, around 20 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved so far in FY26. This suggests an average of 2.5 people moving to the area per new home constructed over these years, indicating healthy demand which may support property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $353,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. There have been $2.7 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Perth, Medina shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 89.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated count of 594 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Medina adding 300 residents by 2041, from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Medina has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified three projects likely impacting the area: Westport-Kwinana Container Port, Hammond West Private Estate (Vivente), Kwinana Energy Transformation Hub (KETH), and Kwinana Education Precinct. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Medina face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Medina has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent, with an unemployment rate of 15.4% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.3%.

The unemployment rate is higher than Greater Perth's 4.0%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Medina lags behind Greater Perth, at 61.4% compared to 71.6%. Few residents work from home, with only 5.4% doing so according to Census responses. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence, with 3.9% employment compared to 8.2% regionally. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.3%, while labour force grew by 4.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth saw employment growth of 2.9% and marginal unemployment increase. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Medina. Applying these projections to Medina's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Medina's median taxpayer income is $57,917 and average is $66,899 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This aligns with national averages, differing from Greater Perth's median of $60,748 and average of $80,248. By September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $63,489 and average is $73,335, considering a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Medina fall between the 5th and 11th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 29.2% of individuals earn between $400 - $799, unlike surrounding regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 32.0%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 80.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile.

Medina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Medina's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.3% houses and 7.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Perth metro had 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Medina stood at 23.2%, with mortgaged properties at 41.9% and rented ones at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,200, lower than Perth metro's average of $1,907. Medina's median weekly rent figure was $270, compared to Perth metro's $350. Nationally, Medina's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,200 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Medina features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 53.3% of all households, including 16.8% couples with children, 20.3% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 46.7%, with lone person households at 41.0% and group households comprising 5.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Medina faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.6%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Medina has 22 active public transport stops, all served by buses. These stops are covered by two routes, offering a total of 405 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 223 meters, indicating good transport accessibility. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 83%, with trains used by 10% of residents. Vehicle ownership stands at an average of 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 5.4% of residents work from home, which might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 57 trips per day, translating to about 18 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Medina is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Medina faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,314 people), higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Perth's 59.0%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in Medina, impacting 12.8 and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 59.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age population health is notably challenged by high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.0% (464 people), compared to Greater Perth's 16.3%. Senior health outcomes present challenges, with national rankings largely in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Medina was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Medina's cultural diversity was above average, with 10.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 29.2% born overseas. Christianity dominated Medina's religious landscape, accounting for 39.5%. However, the most notable overrepresentation was in Other religions, comprising 0.8%, compared to Greater Perth's 1.4%.

In terms of ancestry, English was the largest group at 31.1%, followed by Australian at 24.2% and Other at 8.0%. Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: New Zealanders were overrepresented at 1.2% (vs regional 0.8%), Maori at 1.3% (vs 0.9%), and Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.5%).

Medina's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Medina is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 55-64 years make up 15.7% of the population, while those aged 5-14 years comprise only 8.0%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of individuals aged 65-74 has increased from 9.6% to 11.0%, and the 55-64 age group has risen from 14.4% to 15.7%. Conversely, the percentage of individuals aged 5-14 years has decreased from 11.0% to 8.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Medina's age structure. The 65-74 age group is projected to increase by 109 people (41%), rising from 269 to 379 individuals. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 years and above will account for 71% of total population growth, reflecting Medina's aging demographic trend. In contrast, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.