Medina

An assessment of population growth drivers in Medina reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on an evaluation of ABS demographic updates for the surrounding region, alongside new address files validated by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Medina has an estimated population of approximately 2,408 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 148 people (6.5%) compared to the 2,260 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. This adjustment is derived from the resident population of 2,406, which AreaSearch calculated using the June 2025 ABS ERP release and 1 newly validated address registered since the Census date. With these figures, the suburb of Medina has a density of 656 persons per square kilometer, offering plenty of space per resident and opportunity for future expansion. The 6.5% growth rate since the census highlights a pace that is 2.8 percentage points behind the national benchmark of 9.3%, indicating solid underlying expansion metrics. This demographic growth was heavily supported by international migration, which was responsible for roughly 97.0% of the overall population rise in recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for individual SA2 regions, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the baseline. For SA2 regions lacking these specific figures, and to project demographic trends beyond 2032, AreaSearch utilizes cohort-specific growth rates from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 with 2022 data. Factoring in these expected demographic shifts, the suburb of Medina is projected to experience population expansion above the median for Australian statistical areas, with a forecasted increase of 289 residents by 2041 based on compiled SA2 projections, representing a total rise of 11.9% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Medina according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

According to AreaSearch's evaluation of ABS residential building approvals compiled from regional data, the suburb of Medina has seen an average of roughly 2 new home approvals annually. This totals an estimated 13 residential approvals over the last 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, with 6 approvals recorded during the current FY-26. Because an average of 4.4 new residents have arrived for each built dwelling over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, demand is outpacing supply, which generally drives up prices and intensifies buyer competition. Meanwhile, new projects carry an average building cost of $353,000, which is higher than the regional average and points to premium construction standards. Commercial approvals have reached $2.7 million in the current financial year, reinforcing that the area remains predominantly residential.

In comparison to Greater Perth, the suburb of Medina has a significantly lower rate of residential construction, tracking 92.0% below the metropolitan average on a per capita basis. This limited supply of new dwellings generally supports demand and values for established houses. The rate is also below the national average, reflecting a mature residential landscape and potential planning constraints. Furthermore, all recent additions to housing supply have been detached dwellings, maintaining the low-density character of the area and appealing to buyers seeking extra space. The metric of 797 residents per building approval highlights a quiet development environment with limited construction activity.

Long-term forecasts indicate the suburb of Medina will add 287 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. If current building trends persist, the supply of new housing may fail to match the population growth, which could increase competition among prospective buyers and underpin stronger price appreciation.

Medina has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and zoning updates are major drivers of local growth. AreaSearch has identified 4 key projects that are expected to influence the suburb of Medina. These projects include Cassia Estate, Westport - Kwinana Container Port, Hammond West Private Estate (Vivente), and the Kwinana Energy Transformation Hub (KETH), with detailed information on the most significant projects provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Medina face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

The suburb of Medina supports a diverse workforce split between professional and industrial roles, with manufacturing and industrial sectors being highly represented, alongside an unemployment rate of 15.4% according to AreaSearch data compiled from statistical areas. As of March 2026, there are 1,091 employed residents. The unemployment rate is 11.2% higher than the Greater Perth average of 4.2%, pointing to opportunities for labor market improvement, while workforce participation is notably lower, sitting at 62.4% compared to the metropolitan average of 70.2%. Census data indicates that a low 5.4% of the workforce worked from home, though this figure was likely influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.

The primary employment industries for residents of the suburb of Medina are healthcare and social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The local workforce has a notable concentration in manufacturing jobs, which employ residents at 1.7 times the metropolitan average. Conversely, professional and technical services show a small footprint, accounting for 3.9% of local employment compared to 8.2% across the wider region. The comparison between the Census working population and the resident population suggests that local employment opportunities are limited.

According to AreaSearch's assessment of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated across wider regions, the labor force contract by 0.7% and total employment fell by 1.9% in the year ending March 2026, leading to a 1.0 percentage point increase in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced a 2.0% increase in employment, a 2.5% expansion of the labor force, and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia published in May-25 provide additional context for prospective employment trends in the suburb of Medina. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local industry profile to estimate future trends. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the rates of change vary significantly across different sectors. Applying these industry projections to the local workforce mix suggests that employment for residents of the suburb of Medina could grow by 5.8% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighted extrapolation that does not account for local population changes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Taxpayer statistics from the latest postcode-level ATO data for the 2023 financial year, compiled by AreaSearch, show that the suburb of Medina has a median taxpayer income of $57,917 and an average income of $66,899. These figures align closely with national benchmarks, contrasting with the Greater Perth median of $60,748 and average of $80,248. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year, current estimated values would be approximately $64,247 for the median and $74,211 for the average as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and individual incomes in the suburb of Medina all rank between the 5th and 11th percentiles across Australia. The local income profile reveals that the $400 - 799 weekly income bracket is the most common, accounting for 29.2% of the population (703 residents), which differs from the metropolitan area where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is most prevalent at 32.0%. Affordability pressures are high, with residents retaining only 80.2% of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the 5th percentile.

Medina is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The composition of residential properties in the suburb of Medina at the time of the latest Census consisted of 92.3% standalone houses and 7.7% alternative housing types, such as townhouses and apartments, compared to the wider Perth metropolitan ratio of 77.8% houses and 22.1% alternative dwellings. The home ownership rate in the suburb of Medina stood at 23.2%, which is lower than the Perth metropolitan average, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (41.9%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,200, which is lower than the Perth metropolitan average of $1,907. Similarly, the median weekly rent was $270, compared to the regional average of $350. Nationally, mortgage repayments in the suburb of Medina are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are also lower than the national figure of $375.

Medina features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 53.3% of the households in the suburb of Medina, consisting of couples with children at 16.8%, couples without children at 20.3%, and single-parent households at 14.7%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 46.7%, with single-person households representing 41.0% and group households making up 5.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the average of 2.6 across Greater Perth.

Medina faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The suburb of Medina shows room for educational advancement, as university completion rates sit at 14.6%, which is below the national average of 30.4%. This represents an opportunity for targeted educational support programs. Among residents with tertiary qualification, bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 2.4% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational and technical training is highly prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15 and over holding vocational qualifications, comprising advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.4%).

Participation in study is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in an educational institution. This group includes 9.2% of the population attending primary school, 7.7% in high school, and 3.1% enrolled in higher education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport options shows 22 active bus stops operating in the suburb of Medina. These stops are served by 2 distinct routes, which generate 405 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated as favorable, with residents living an average of 223 meters from their nearest transit stop. Because the area is primarily residential, most workers commute to other areas, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of transport at 83% and trains accounting for 10%. Car ownership averages 1.1 vehicles per household, which is lower than the regional average. A low 5.4% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The average service frequency across all routes is 57 daily trips, which corresponds to approximately 18 weekly trips per bus stop.

Health performance in Medina is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the prevalence of chronic illnesses highlights distinct health challenges within the suburb of Medina, impacting both younger and older residents. The rate of private health insurance coverage is slightly higher than the average SA2 region, with approximately 54% of the population (~1,294 people) covered, compared to 59.0% across Greater Perth.

The most prevalent health issues in the suburb of Medina are mental health conditions and arthritis, affecting 12.8% and 9.9% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 59.5% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth. The working-age cohort faces notable health challenges, indicated by elevated rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 17.5% of the population (421 people), which is higher than the Greater Perth proportion of 16.1%. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, with national indicators for this cohort generally aligning with the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Medina was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The suburb of Medina exhibits a high degree of cultural diversity, with 10.2% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 29.2% born outside of Australia. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 39.5% of the local population. The most prominent statistical divergence is in the Other religious category, which accounts for 0.8% of residents compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

Looking at ancestral backgrounds based on parents' country of birth, the three largest groups in the suburb of Medina are English at 31.1%, Australian at 24.2%, and Other at 8.0%. There are also notable differences in other heritage groups, with New Zealand background representing 1.2% of the population (compared to 0.8% regionally), Maori heritage at 1.3% (compared to 0.9%), and Dutch background at 1.8% (compared to 1.5%).

Medina's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in the suburb of Medina is 43 years, which is higher than the Greater Perth average of 37 years and the national average of 38 years. The local age distribution shows that the 55 - 64 age bracket is highly represented at 15.3%, whereas the 5 - 14 cohort is smaller at 8.6% compared to Greater Perth. Since 2021, the 65 to 74 age bracket has increased from 9.6% to 10.6% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 11.0% to 8.6%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate shifts in the age structure of the suburb of Medina. The 65 to 74 age group is expected to grow by 110 people (43%), rising from 255 to 366. The combined cohorts aged 65 and over are projected to make up 65% of the total population growth, reflecting an aging community. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age brackets are projected to experience declines in population.