The Vines

The Vines lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the resident count of The Vines stands at approximately 16,806 as of May 2026. This represents an expansion of 4,349 people (34.9%) relative to the 2021 Census, which recorded 12,457 residents. This growth calculation is based on the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 16,074, combined with 1,011 validated new addresses confirmed since the Census. The resulting population density is 250 persons per square kilometer, indicating low-density living with ample physical space and opportunity for additional expansion. The area's 34.9% expansion rate since the 2021 census outstripped the national growth rate of 9.3% as well as the state average, positioning it as a key growth pocket. This demographic growth was heavily supported by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 60.8% of the net population increase over recent times, although net overseas migration and natural growth also registered positive contributions.

For each SA2 locality, AreaSearch applies the ABS/Geoscience Australia projections published in 2024, utilizing 2022 as the base year. In instances where SA2 areas lack coverage in this release, or to project expansion beyond 2032, growth rates by age bracket from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections (published in 2023, based on 2022 data) are implemented. Future projections indicate that the district will experience population growth exceeding the national median, with resident numbers expected to climb by 3,581 persons by 2041 compared to the most recent annual ERP figures, showing a total increase of 16.9% over a 16-year timeframe.

The level of residential development activity in The Vines was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Approximately 217 new dwellings are approved in The Vines on an annual basis, with a total of 1,089 residential approvals recorded across the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, and an additional 237 approvals registered so far in FY-26. Given that the area has added an average of 3.3 new residents for each completed home during the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, demand is significantly outstripping new supply, which commonly drives up property prices and heightens buyer competition. Newly constructed homes carry an average estimated building cost of $270,000. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $2.9 million for the current financial year, showing that commercial construction remains a minor focus.

Compared to the wider Greater Perth region, building activity in The Vines is slightly elevated, running 26.0% above the regional per capita average over the 5-year timeframe, which supports local property values while offering buyers a steady stream of options. This volume sits substantially higher than the national average, pointing to strong interest from residential developers. Looking at the composition of new builds, detached houses make up 99.0% of approvals, while medium and high-density dwellings account for just 1.0%, maintaining the low-density character of the suburb and appealing to buyers seeking larger properties. The ratio of roughly 72 people for every approved dwelling is typical of a developing growth corridor.

Based on the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch, future population projections suggest that The Vines will add 2,849 residents by 2041. Under current construction trajectories, the volume of new residential supply is expected to easily accommodate this growth, creating favorable purchasing conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating expansion beyond current baseline projections.

The Vines has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 16thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and zoning updates are major drivers of local performance. AreaSearch has tracked a total of 17 projects expected to influence the locality. The key projects of high relevance include the North Ellenbrook (West) District Structure Plan, the Village 6 Malvern Springs Development Plan, the HomeCo Ellenbrook Retail Centre, and the Centuria Ellenbrook Promenade Plaza, with the following index listing the most significant undertakings.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals The Vines significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

The Vines features a highly skilled labor force, with strong representation in industrial and manufacturing sectors, a low unemployment rate of 3.2%, and an estimated annual employment growth rate of 3.7%. As of March 2026, there are 9,060 employed residents in the area, and the local unemployment rate sits 1.0% below the Greater Perth average of 4.2%. Participation in the labor force is relatively typical, standing at 74.0% compared to 70.2% across Greater Perth. Data from the Census indicated that only 9.9% of local workers operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by pandemic-related lockdowns.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, the mining industry has a strong presence, employing workers at 1.3 times the regional average rate. Conversely, the professional & technical services sector is underrepresented, accounting for 5.6% of local employment compared to 8.2% across the wider region. Comparing the number of working residents to the local job count indicates that this predominantly residential suburb offers few employment opportunities within its own boundaries.

According to AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics, the latest 12-month period saw local employment rise by 3.7% while the overall labor force grew by 4.0%, leading to a 0.3 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. By comparison, Greater Perth experienced a 2.0% rise in employment, a 2.5% expansion of the labor force, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Future local employment demand can be contextualized by the national employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five-year and ten-year national forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates of change vary widely by industry. Weighting these sectoral projections against the local job mix suggests employment among residents could rise by 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, noting this is a baseline weighting calculation that does not incorporate local population growth dynamics.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Taxpayer statistics compiled by AreaSearch from the latest ATO release for the 2023 financial year show that income levels in the The Vines SA2 are very high relative to the rest of the nation. The median income for local taxpayers is $62,136, while the average income is $75,217, compared to the Greater Perth averages of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Adjusting these figures for the 10.93% growth in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year yields estimated figures of approximately $68,927 for median income and $83,438 for average income as of March 2026. According to the Census, household, family, and individual incomes in The Vines are positioned high, placing between the 72nd and 79th percentiles nationwide. The weekly income distribution is heavily concentrated in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which accounts for 34.9% of residents (5,865 people), mirroring the broader regional pattern where 32.0% of individuals fall into this bracket. A notable 32.8% of the population earns more than $3,000 per week, pointing to affluent cohorts that support local businesses. Although residents allocate 16.3% of their income to housing costs, strong earnings keep disposable income levels at the 77th percentile nationally, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 6th decile for income.

The Vines is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

According to the latest Census, the housing stock in The Vines was composed of 94.0% separate houses and 6.0% other dwelling types like semi-detached properties and apartments, compared to the Perth metropolitan average of 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership rates in The Vines lagged behind the Perth metropolitan average, standing at 23.8%, with the remaining properties being held under a mortgage (62.1%) or rented (14.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,167 was significantly higher than the Perth metropolitan average of $1,907, whereas the median weekly rent was $370, compared to the regional metropolitan average of $350. On a national scale, mortgage payments in The Vines are elevated compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while weekly rents sit slightly below the national average of $375.

The Vines features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family units make up the vast majority of households at 83.9%, consisting of couples with children at 44.2%, couples without children at 28.5%, and single parent households at 10.5%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 16.1% of households, with lone person households representing 14.7% and group households making up 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in The Vines aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational attainment profiles reveal some challenges for the area, with 20.1% of residents holding a tertiary qualification compared to the national benchmark of 30.4%. This highlights a potential area for targeted educational programs. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Technical and trade qualifications are highly represented, with 41.2% of the population aged 15 and over holding vocational credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 28.5%.

The proportion of residents engaged in study is high, with 32.1% of the population currently enrolled in an educational institution. This group includes 12.6% in primary school, 9.4% in high school, and 4.2% undertaking tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport infrastructure shows 68 active transit stops within The Vines, which are serviced by buses. These stops accommodate 6 distinct routes, which combine to offer 1,275 weekly passenger journeys. Public transport accessibility is classified as low, with residents living an average of 725 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the residential nature of the suburb, most workers commute to outer areas, and private vehicles are the primary mode of travel for 88% of commuters. Households own an average of 1.9 motor vehicles, exceeding the regional average. A relatively low proportion of the workforce, 9.9%, worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may have been impacted by pandemic conditions.

Across all transit lines, service frequency averages 182 daily trips, which translates to roughly 18 weekly departures from each individual stop.

The Vines's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health data shows highly favorable outcomes for The Vines, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality statistics and the prevalence of chronic illnesses, which reveals low rates of common health conditions across all age cohorts. Additionally, the proportion of residents with private health insurance is high, sitting at approximately 57% of the population (~9,512 people), compared to 59.0% across the Greater Perth region.

The most prevalent health conditions recorded in the region were mental health conditions and asthma, affecting 7.3% and 7.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 74.1% of the population reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Residents under the age of 65 experience better than average health profiles. The suburb has 13.4% of its population aged 65 or older (2,246 people), which is below the Greater Perth average of 16.1%. Senior residents enjoy strong health profiles, with national rankings aligning closely with those of the broader community.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in The Vines was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The Vines displays greater cultural diversity than most comparable property markets, with 15.0% of residents speaking a non-English language at home and 33.8% born outside of Australia. Christianity is the predominant religious affiliation, representing 48.6% of the local population. The most distinct variance from regional trends is in the Other category, which accounts for 1.3% of local residents, compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

Regarding parental birthplace, the three largest ancestral groups identified in The Vines are English at 31.2%, Australian at 22.3%, and Other at 11.1%. There are also distinct concentrations of other ethnic groups compared to the wider region: South Australian background accounts for 1.5% of the local population (compared to 1.0% regionally), Maori accounts for 1.6% (compared to 0.9%), and New Zealand ancestry accounts for 1.2% (compared to 0.8%).

The Vines's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age of residents in The Vines is 36 years, which is very close to the Greater Perth average of 37 and slightly below the national median of 38. Compared to the Greater Perth metropolitan area, The Vines features a larger percentage of children aged 5 - 14 (15.3%) but a smaller proportion of young adults aged 25 - 34 (11.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 grew from 12.3% to 14.1%, and the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 3.3% to 4.4%. During the same period, the proportion of young children aged 0 to 4 fell from 7.3% to 6.0%, and the 5 to 14 age bracket decreased from 16.4% to 15.3%. Projections suggest the demographic structure will change notably by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort expected to grow by 26%, adding 576 people to reach a total of 2,758. Conversely, the absolute numbers of children in both the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are projected to contract.