The Vines

The Vines lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, The Vines's population is around 16,158 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 3,701 people (29.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,457 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,135 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 916 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 241 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. The Vines's 29.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 58.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth relative to national areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,961 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 18.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in The Vines was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

The Vines has experienced around 217 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 1,089 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26156 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 2.9 new residents per year for each dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $270,000. There have also been $2.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Relative to Greater Perth, The Vines has slightly more development (27.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. This is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 99.0% detached dwellings and 1.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 67 people per dwelling approval, The Vines shows characteristics of a growth area.

Future projections show The Vines adding 2,938 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

The Vines has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 12thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 18 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the North Ellenbrook (West) District Structure Plan, Village 6 Malvern Springs Development Plan, HomeCo Ellenbrook Retail Centre, and Stockland Vale, Aveley, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places The Vines well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

The Vines possesses a skilled workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.2%, and 2.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,926 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (77.2% compared to Greater Perth's 71.9%). Based on Census responses, a low 9.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in mining, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 5.6% employment compared to 8.2% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 2.8% alongside the labour force increasing by 3.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Perth, where employment rose by 2.3%, the labour force grew by 2.6%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within The Vines. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to The Vines's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Vines SA2's income level is very high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Vines SA2's median income among taxpayers is $62,136 and the average income stands at $75,217, which compares to figures for Greater Perth of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $68,113 (median) and $82,453 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in The Vines, between the 72nd and 79th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 34.9% of residents (5,639 people), reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 32.0% similarly occupy this range. A significant 32.8% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. High housing costs consume 16.3% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 77th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

The Vines is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within The Vines, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 94.0% houses and 6.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within The Vines was lagging that of Perth metro, at 23.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (62.1%) or rented (14.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Perth metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, The Vines's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

The Vines features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 83.9% of all households, comprising 44.2% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.1%, with lone person households at 14.7% and group households comprising 1.4% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in The Vines aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.1%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (28.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 68 active transport stops operating within The Vines, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1,275 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 725 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 88%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 9.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 182 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

The Vines's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across The Vines, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~9,145 people), compared to 59.0% across Greater Perth.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.3% and 7.1% of residents, respectively, while 74.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,276 people), which is lower than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in The Vines was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The Vines is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 15.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 33.8% born overseas. The main religion in The Vines is Christianity, which makes up 48.6% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.3% of the population, compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in The Vines are English, comprising 31.2% of the population, Australian, comprising 22.3% of the population, and Other, comprising 11.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: South Australian is notably overrepresented at 1.5% of The Vines (vs 1.0% regionally), Maori at 1.6% (vs 0.9%) and New Zealand at 1.2% (vs 0.8%).

The Vines's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 36 years, The Vines's median age is nearly matching the Greater Perth average of 37 and is similarly modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Perth, The Vines has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (15.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (10.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.3% to 13.7% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 3.3% to 4.6%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort has declined from 7.3% to 5.7% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 11.9% to 10.6%. Demographic modeling suggests The Vines's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 27%, adding 588 residents to reach 2,767. In contrast, both the 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 age groups will see reduced numbers.