Middle Swan

An assessment of population growth drivers in Middle Swan reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Middle Swan has a residency count estimated at 3,317 as of May 2026, according to AreaSearch evaluations of ABS population figures and post-Census address validations. This indicates that 465 more individuals live in the suburb of Middle Swan than during the 2021 Census, when the population was recorded at 2,852, representing a rise of 16.3%. This calculation is based on an estimated resident population of 3,314 calculated by AreaSearch using the June 2025 ABS ERP data, combined with 165 validated new addresses added since the Census. With a density of 247 persons per square kilometer, the area offers substantial open space and capacity for expansion. The 16.3% rate of growth in the suburb of Middle Swan outpaced both the national rate of 9.3% and the state average. Although all growth components, including interstate arrivals and natural increase, registered gains, overseas migration was the primary contributor, accounting for roughly 48.0% of the overall increase.

Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, issued in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, are applied to each SA2 region. In cases where data is unavailable, or to calculate projections beyond 2032, growth rates by age cohort from the 2023 Greater Capital Region projections (using 2022 statistics) are utilized. The suburb of Middle Swan is expected to experience population expansion that exceeds the national median, with aggregated SA2 projections indicating a gain of 456 residents by 2041, which translates to a 13.7% increase over the 16-year timeframe.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Middle Swan among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Statistics on building approvals show that the local area averages approximately 28 new home approvals annually, with 143 approvals logged across the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, and 39 recorded during FY-26 so far. An average occupancy of 2.7 residents per new home during the 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25 points to steady demand that supports local property values. Newly constructed houses carry an average value of $367,000, representing premium development relative to regional baselines. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $46.9 million in the current financial year, pointing to significant local business investment.

Per capita building approvals in this area stand at approximately three-quarters of the level observed across Greater Perth, yet the area ranks in the 88th percentile nationwide. Detached houses account for 94.0% of the construction activity, while attached dwellings make up the remaining 6.0%, preserving a low-density profile dominated by spacious family residences. With one approval for roughly every 93 people, the locality displays characteristics of an expanding residential zone.

Demographic projections indicate the area will add 453 residents by 2041, relative to the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Current building volumes appear sufficient to meet this housing demand, which should keep market conditions favorable for buyers and potentially support growth above forecasted rates.

Middle Swan has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects and planning changes significantly impact area performance. Seven projects have been identified that are expected to influence the local market, including the Bushmead Residential Estate, Midland Health Campus Redevelopment (encompassing the St John of God Midland Public and Private Hospitals), METRONET East - Midland Urban Renewal Precinct, and the METRONET East High Wycombe Station Precinct.

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Middle Swan shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

The local workforce is evenly divided between white-collar and blue-collar occupations, with notable representation in industrial and manufacturing roles, an unemployment rate of 7.2%, and a 3.7% increase in employment over the preceding year. As of March 2026, employed residents numbered 1,684, while the unemployment rate sat 3.0% higher than the Greater Perth benchmark of 4.2%. Participation in the labor force is relatively low at 65.0% compared to 70.2% across the wider capital city. Census data shows that a minor 5.7% of the workforce worked from home, though this figure was likely influenced by pandemic-related restrictions.

Residents are predominantly employed in healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. A significant concentration is observed in transport, postal & warehousing, where employment is 1.8 times the regional norm. Conversely, education & training is underrepresented, accounting for 5.3% of workers compared to the regional average of 9.2%. The ratio of Census-registered workers to the local population indicates that many residents travel outside the area for employment, despite the presence of local jobs.

Based on SALM and ABS statistics compiled for the wider statistical territory, the past 12 months saw employment expand by 3.7% and the labor force grow by 4.1%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Greater Perth saw jobs grow by 2.0%, the labor force expand by 2.5%, and unemployment tick up by 0.4 percentage points. The May-25 employment forecasts published by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context regarding future labor demand. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to local data to estimate future patterns. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary by sector. Applying these industry projections to the local workforce mix suggests employment gains of 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, using a basic weighted extrapolation that does not account for localized population changes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Taxpayer data from the 2023 financial year shows a median income of $48,315 and an average income of $58,906. These figures sit below the national average and compare to Greater Perth medians and averages of $60,748 and $80,248. Adjusted for the Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since the 2023 financial year, estimated figures for March 2026 stand at $53,596 for the median and $65,344 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes all fell between the 21st and 22nd percentiles nationally. Income distribution figures show that 31.0% of the population (1,028 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the 32.0% regional distribution in this bracket. Financial strain from housing costs is pronounced, with residents retaining only 82.6% of their income, placing the area in the 20th percentile.

Middle Swan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the last Census, the local housing stock consisted of 84.9% separate houses and 15.1% alternative dwellings, such as townhouses, apartments, or other structures, compared to a metro-wide split of 77.8% and 22.1%. Homeownership stood at 31.0%, exceeding the Perth metro rate, while the remaining homes were occupied by mortgagors (39.8%) or tenants (29.2%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,500, which is lower than the Perth metro median of $1,907. Weekly rent was also lower at $310 compared to the metropolitan median of $350. Nationally, mortgage costs are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national median of $375.

Middle Swan features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families comprise the majority of households at 66.0%, consisting of couples with children (25.7%), couples without children (22.4%), and single parents (15.7%). Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 34.0%, with lone-person households representing 30.8% and group households making up 3.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 individuals is slightly below the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Middle Swan faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Educational attainment levels present opportunities for improvement, with 14.4% of residents holding a university degree, compared to the national average of 30.4%. Among university degree holders, 9.8% have a bachelor degree, 3.2% have postgraduate qualifications, and 1.4% have graduate diplomas. Vocational and trade qualifications are highly prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding credentials, consisting of 9.8% with advanced diplomas and 30.3% with certificates.

A significant portion of the population is engaged in study, with 27.7% of residents enrolled in an educational institution. This group comprises 9.2% in primary school, 8.6% in secondary school, and 2.8% attending tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport infrastructure consists of 48 active bus stops within the area. These stops connect to 17 routes, supporting 964 passenger journeys each week. Transport accessibility is high, with the average distance to the nearest stop standing at 188 meters. Given the residential nature of the suburb, commuting is primarily outward, with private vehicles being the primary mode of travel for 83% of workers, followed by train travel at 6%. Dwellings average 1.5 vehicles, and a minor 5.7% of residents worked from home during the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.

Across all bus routes, service frequency averages 137 daily trips, which translates to approximately 20 weekly services per stop.

Health performance in Middle Swan is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health metrics indicate notable challenges in the area, particularly regarding mortality rates and the prevalence of chronic health conditions across various age brackets. Furthermore, private health insurance coverage is relatively low, held by approximately 51% of residents (around 1,678 people), compared to 59.0% across Greater Perth and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health conditions and arthritis are the most common medical diagnoses, affecting 9.2% and 7.7% of residents. The proportion of residents reporting no chronic health conditions stands at 66.5%, compared to 71.9% in Greater Perth. The working-age population experiences elevated rates of chronic illness, and residents aged 65 and over make up 18.9% of the population (626 people), which is higher than the Greater Perth proportion of 16.1%. National health rankings for the area are higher than those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Middle Swan was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity in this location is higher than in most comparable markets, with 30.6% of residents born outside Australia and 23.7% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, adhered to by 51.3% of the population. The most distinct religious overrepresentation is in the Other category, which accounts for 1.9% of residents compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

The most common ancestral backgrounds reported are English (27.1%), Australian (22.7%), and Other (7.2%). Some ethnic backgrounds show higher representation locally than regionally: Croatian accounts for 2.8% of the population (versus 0.8% regionally), Filipino represents 4.4% (versus 1.4% regionally), and New Zealand ancestry stands at 1.1% (versus 0.8% regionally).

Middle Swan's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age of residents is 39 years, slightly higher than the Greater Perth average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 65 to 74 age group is overrepresented at 10.2% compared to the metropolitan average, while 25 to 34 year-olds are underrepresented at 13.6%. Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort grew from 12.9% to 14.7%, and the 15 to 24 cohort rose from 12.0% to 13.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group fell from 13.4% to 12.0%, and the 45 to 54 cohort decreased from 12.8% to 11.5%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest the 75 to 84 cohort will grow by 58% (adding 114 people to reach 310 from an initial 195). Residents aged 65 and older are projected to account for 68% of the area's overall growth, while the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts are expected to contract.