Middle Swan - Herne Hill

Middle Swan - Herne Hill has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Middle Swan - Herne Hill stands at approximately 6,590 in May 2026. This represents a growth of 912 residents (16.1%) from the 5,678 individuals recorded in the 2021 Census. The calculation is based on the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 6,580 combined with 260 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This population level translates to a density of 205 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density and potential for future urban expansion. The 16.1% rate of growth since the 2021 census is higher than both the state benchmark and the national average (9.3%), placing the district among the faster-growing areas in the region. The primary driver of this demographic expansion was international migration, which accounted for roughly 49.3% of the total population increase during recent times, with interstate migration and natural increase also making positive contributions.

For individual SA2 locations, AreaSearch adopts projections published by the ABS and Geoscience Australia in 2024, using 2022 as the base point. In cases where SA2 specific figures are unavailable, and to calculate trends past 2032, growth rates by age bracket from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections (issued in 2023, utilizing 2022 data) are applied. Based on these expected demographic shifts, the population is anticipated to expand at a rate above the national median, increasing by 1,013 residents to 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, which represents a total growth of 15.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Middle Swan - Herne Hill among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

In Middle Swan - Herne Hill, dwelling approvals have averaged approximately 38 per year, resulting in a total of 193 new homes during the last 5 financial years. In the current period of FY-26, 70 approvals have been documented so far. With an average of 4.2 new residents per year added for every constructed dwelling during the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, demand is outstripping supply, a trend that typically drives upward pressure on prices and heightens competition among buyers, with new homes constructed at an average cost of $296,000. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $48.4 million during this financial year, reflecting substantial local business capital investment.

Compared to the broader Greater Perth area, Middle Swan - Herne Hill exhibits a lower level of building activity, sitting 50.0% below regional average per person. This lack of new development generally supports demand and asset values for established houses. The composition of new construction is heavily skewed toward detached houses at 93.0%, with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 7.0%, preserving the low-density characteristics of the suburb and attracting buyers seeking larger properties. There are roughly 143 people per dwelling approval in the locality, pointing to a growing market.

Long-term forecasts indicate that Middle Swan - Herne Hill will add 1,003 residents by 2041, based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly projection. The volume of current construction seems appropriate to meet this projected demand, which should foster stable market dynamics rather than sharp price escalations.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning changes, and major developments have a significant impact on local property market performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 21 projects that are expected to influence this locality. Prominent developments include the Bushmead Residential Estate, the Midland Health Campus Redevelopment encompassing the St John of God Midland Public and Private Hospitals, The Avenues Midland, and the METRONET East - Midland Urban Renewal Precinct, with details of the most relevant projects listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Middle Swan - Herne Hill remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

The local workforce in Middle Swan - Herne Hill features a blend of white-collar and blue-collar workers, with manufacturing and industrial sectors representing a key segment, alongside an unemployment rate of 5.6% and a 3.7% increase in estimated employment over the previous year. In March 2026, the employed resident cohort numbered 3,537, while the local unemployment rate was 1.4% higher than the Greater Perth level of 4.2%, and the participation rate of 67.5% was lower than the regional figure of 70.2%. Census records show that a minor 8.8% of the workforce worked from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The district exhibits a strong concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, where the employment proportion is 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services are underrepresented, accounting for 4.4% of local employment compared to 8.2% across the wider region. Although there are jobs located within the area, a high proportion of employed residents travel outside the suburb to work, as indicated by comparing the Census working population against the resident population.

Analysis of SALM and ABS data by AreaSearch shows that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the number of employed residents rose by 3.7% while the overall labor force grew by 4.1%, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. Over the same period, Greater Perth saw employment rise by 2.0% and the labor force grow by 2.5%, with its unemployment rate rising by 0.4 percentage points. The national employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional context on prospective labor demand for Middle Swan - Herne Hill. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with local employment structures to project potential trends. Globally, national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but rates of expansion differ markedly across individual industries. Projecting these industry-specific trends onto the local workforce profile suggests that employment within Middle Swan - Herne Hill could grow by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, representing a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes that does not account for local population changes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to the latest financial year 2023 ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch, household earnings in the Middle Swan - Herne Hill SA2 align closely with the national average. The median income for local taxpayers is $55,553, with the average income recorded at $67,591, compared to Greater Perth values of $60,748 and $80,248 respectively. Adjusted for the 10.93% growth in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 stand at roughly $61,625 for median income and $74,979 for average income. Census statistics indicate that household, family, and individual incomes are positioned in the lower-middle range, falling between the 34th and 36th percentiles. Income distribution data shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly bracket includes 32.4% of the population, or 2,135 individuals, which is very similar to the Greater Perth proportion of 32.0%. Housing cost pressures are pronounced, with residents retaining 84.4% of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the 37th percentile.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The mix of housing types in Middle Swan - Herne Hill at the time of the latest Census consisted of 85.5% separate houses and 14.4% other housing styles such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative dwellings, compared to the Perth metropolitan averages of 77.8% and 22.1% respectively. The proportion of outright home ownership stood at 34.0%, which is higher than the Perth metro rate, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (41.0%) or rented (25.0%). The median monthly payment for home loans was $1,625, which is lower than the Perth metro median of $1,907, while the median weekly rental cost was $320, compared to $350 regionally. On a national scale, mortgage payments are lower than the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the national benchmark of $375.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 70.2%, consisting of couples with children at 28.3%, couples without children at 25.4%, and single-parent homes at 15.0%. The remaining 29.8% consists of non-family households, with single-person households representing 26.8% and group households representing 3.0% of the total. The median size of local households is 2.5 people, which is slightly smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Middle Swan - Herne Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Educational attainment levels in the area are low, with 16.3% of residents holding a tertiary qualification, compared to the national average of 30.4%. This highlights a significant gap and an opportunity for targeted learning programs. Among university degree holders, bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 39.4% of individuals aged 15+ holding a vocational qualification, consisting of advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (29.0%).

Participation in study is high, with 27.2% of the local population enrolled in an educational institution. This group includes 8.7% in primary school, 8.3% in secondary school, and 3.5% studying at a tertiary level.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of the local transit network indicates there are 88 active public transport stops in Middle Swan - Herne Hill, which are serviced by bus connections. These locations are linked to 17 individual routes that provide a total of 969 passenger trips each week. Transport access is high, with the average distance from a home to the nearest stop being 175 meters. Because the area is primarily residential, most workers commute to external areas, with private vehicles being the primary mode of travel at 85%, followed by train travel at 7%. Average vehicle ownership is 1.7 cars per household, which is higher than the regional average. A low proportion of residents work from home, recorded at 8.8% in the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic conditions.

Services run at an average frequency of 138 trips per day across all active routes, which represents approximately 11 weekly departures for each individual stop.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health outcomes for residents in Middle Swan - Herne Hill are positive, with AreaSearch's review of mortality and illness rates showing results that are generally in line with national averages, showing typical rates of common medical conditions across both younger and older cohorts, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is slightly above the typical SA2 average at approximately 53% of the population, representing about 3,466 people. In comparison, private health coverage across Greater Perth is 59.0%.

The most prevalent health diagnoses in the community are mental health conditions and arthritis, affecting 8.4 and 7.5% of the population, respectively, while 68.0% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The prevalence of chronic conditions among working-age residents is higher than average. The population aged 65 and over comprises 20.9% of the local community, representing 1,378 people, which is higher than the Greater Perth average of 16.1%. Senior citizens in the area enjoy positive health outcomes, with their national health rankings exceeding those of the general local population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Middle Swan - Herne Hill was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Middle Swan - Herne Hill displays higher levels of cultural diversity than most Australian local markets, with 28.7% of residents born overseas and 19.0% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the dominant religious affiliation, representing 53.7% of the community. The most notable religious overrepresentation is in the Other category, which accounts for 1.2% of the population, compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry, the three largest ethnic groups in Middle Swan - Herne Hill are English at 29.5%, Australian at 22.9%, and Other at 7.2%. The area also features higher concentrations of specific backgrounds compared to the region, with Croatian ancestry accounting for 3.0% of residents compared to 0.8% regionally, Italian ancestry at 6.4% compared to 4.2%, and Filipino ancestry at 2.7% compared to 1.4%.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age of residents in Middle Swan - Herne Hill is 40 years, which is older than the Greater Perth median of 37 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age group is larger than the regional average, accounting for 11.2% of the population, while 25 - 34 year-olds are smaller at 12.4%. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age bracket has risen from 12.1% to 13.9%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has grown from 11.9% to 13.2%. On the other hand, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.2% to 11.5%, and the 55 to 64 group has declined from 14.0% to 12.4%. Demographic models suggest significant shifts in the age structure by 2041, with the 75 to 84 age group projected to grow by 266 people (59%), rising from 448 to 715. Combined, cohorts aged 65 and older will make up 69% of all population growth, highlighting the aging profile of the area. Meanwhile, the cohorts aged 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 are expected to experience population declines.