Middle Swan - Herne Hill

Middle Swan - Herne Hill has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Middle Swan - Herne Hill's population is around 6,621 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 943 people (16.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,678 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,389 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 192 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 205 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Middle Swan - Herne Hill's 16.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 47.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above-median population growth compared to national areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 1,110 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 13.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Middle Swan - Herne Hill among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Middle Swan - Herne Hill has averaged around 38 new dwelling approvals annually, totalling 193 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 50 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 3.7 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, while new homes are being built at an average value of $296,000. Additionally, $48.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Perth, Middle Swan - Herne Hill records markedly lower building activity (51.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent construction comprises 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 138 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Middle Swan - Herne Hill will gain 878 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 21 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Bushmead Residential Estate, Midland Health Campus Redevelopment (St John of God Midland Public & Private Hospitals Expansion), The Avenues Midland, and Midland Redevelopment Scheme - Central Precinct (Stage 2), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Middle Swan - Herne Hill has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Middle Swan - Herne Hill possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 5.4%, and 3.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,491 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.3% above Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (68.1% compared to Greater Perth's 71.9%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.4% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 8.2%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1% and the labour force increased by 3.1%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 2.3%, labour force growth of 2.6%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Middle Swan - Herne Hill. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Middle Swan - Herne Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Middle Swan - Herne Hill SA2's median income among taxpayers is $55,553, with an average of $67,591. This is approximately average nationally, and compares to Greater Perth's median of $60,748 and average of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,897 (median) and $74,093 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Middle Swan - Herne Hill, between the 34th and 36th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.4% of the community (2,145 individuals), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.0% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 37th percentile.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Middle Swan - Herne Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.5% houses and 14.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Middle Swan - Herne Hill was well beyond that of Perth metro, at 34.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.0%) or rented (25.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Perth metro average at $1,625, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $320, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Middle Swan - Herne Hill's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 70.2% of all households, comprising 28.3% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.8%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Middle Swan - Herne Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.3%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (29.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 88 active transport stops operating within Middle Swan - Herne Hill, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 17 individual routes, collectively providing 969 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 175 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 85%, with 7% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 8.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 138 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Middle Swan - Herne Hill's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Middle Swan - Herne Hill residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks. A fairly standard level of common health conditions is seen across both young and old age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~3,482 people). This compares to 59.0% across Greater Perth.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 8.4 and 7.5% of residents, respectively, while 68.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,431 people), which is higher than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Middle Swan - Herne Hill was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Middle Swan - Herne Hill is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 28.7% of its population born overseas and 19.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Middle Swan - Herne Hill is Christianity, which makes up 53.7% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.2% of the population, compared to 1.4% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Middle Swan - Herne Hill are English, comprising 29.5% of the population, Australian, comprising 22.9% of the population, and Other, comprising 7.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Croatian is notably overrepresented at 3.0% of Middle Swan - Herne Hill (vs 0.8% regionally), Italian at 6.4% (vs 4.2%) and Filipino at 2.7% (vs 1.4%).

Middle Swan - Herne Hill's population is slightly older than the national pattern

At 41 years, Middle Swan - Herne Hill's median age is significantly above the Greater Perth average of 37 as well as somewhat older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Perth average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (11.5% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (11.4%). Following the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.1% to 13.9% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.9% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.2% to 11.8% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 12.8% to 11.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Middle Swan - Herne Hill's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 56%, adding 261 residents to reach 730. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 74% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts.