Shepparton Surrounds - East

Population growth drivers in Shepparton Surrounds - East are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Shepparton Surrounds - East's population is approximately 4,100 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 83 people, a rise of 2.1% since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 4,017. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,065 in June 2024 and an additional 68 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3.9 persons per square kilometer. Shepparton Surrounds - East's growth rate of 2.1% since the census is within 1.6 percentage points of the SA4 region's 3.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.9% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting with a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate exceptional growth, placing Shepparton Surrounds - East in the top 10% of Australia's non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 1,907 persons, reflecting a total increase of 45.7% over the 17-year period, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Shepparton Surrounds - East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Shepparton Surrounds - East has seen approximately 8 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 41 homes. As of FY26, 4 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2 new residents arrive annually for each new home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics. The average construction cost value of new homes is $465,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties.

This financial year has seen $5.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development activity compared to the regional average (70.0% below). Historically, constrained development activity has supported demand and pricing for existing properties but recent periods have shown increased activity. Detached dwellings make up all recent building activity, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character appealing to families seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 388 people. By 2041, Shepparton Surrounds - East is projected to grow by 1,872 residents.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Shepparton Surrounds - East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 33 projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include The North Quarter Estate, Shepparton Sports & Events Centre Redevelopment, GV Health Staff Accommodation Development, and Shepparton North Activity Centre Structure Plan. Below is a list of projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Shepparton Surrounds - East well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Shepparton Surrounds - East has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation as of September 2025. The unemployment rate is 2.1%. There are 2,286 residents employed, which is 1.7% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 69.0%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, 18.5% of residents work from home. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and construction. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employment is notable at 2.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, accommodation & food shows lower representation at 3.6% versus the regional average of 6.9%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 10.3%, with employment decreasing by 11.2%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shepparton Surrounds - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Shepparton Surrounds - East SA2 had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $47,897 and the average income stood at $58,111. These figures compared to those of Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $51,849 (median) and $62,905 (average). The 2021 Census data showed household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Shepparton Surrounds - East, between the 42nd and 43rd percentiles. The largest income segment comprised 33.5% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,373 residents), similar to regional levels where 30.3% occupied this bracket. Housing costs were manageable with 90.0% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 50th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Shepparton Surrounds - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Shepparton Surrounds - East, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.5% houses and 1.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shepparton Surrounds - East stood at 43.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.5% and rented ones at 12.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in the area was $236, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Shepparton Surrounds - East's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton Surrounds - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.6% of all households, including 36.2% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.4%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households making up 1.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Shepparton Surrounds - East shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (28.1%). Educational participation is high, with 31.7% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.3% in primary, 10.8% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 10.8% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows six active stops operating within Shepparton Surrounds - East. These stops are serviced by three routes collectively providing 53 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated limited with residents typically located 10282 meters from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential, with most commuting outward; car remains dominant at 92%, while 6% walk. Average vehicle ownership is 2.3 per dwelling, above regional average. In 2021 Census data, 18.5% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages seven trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately eight weekly trips per individual stop.

Shepparton Surrounds - East's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data for Shepparton Surrounds - East residents shows positive outcomes, with mortality rates and health conditions largely matching national benchmarks. Common health conditions are similar across both young and older age groups. Private health cover is low at 48% (~1976 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.4%) and asthma (9.0%). 67.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age population faces higher chronic condition rates. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 16.6% (682 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, ranking even better than the general population nationally.

Shepparton Surrounds - East is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton Surrounds - East, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 89.2% being citizens, 91.1% born in Australia, and 94.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 53.2%. The category 'Other' was overrepresented at 1.7%, compared to Rest of Vic's 0.8%.

Top ancestral groups were Australian (31.6%), English (30.8%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, Scottish (9.9%) and Macedonian (0.3%) were overrepresented, while Italian (4.1%) was slightly higher than the regional average of 2.9%.

Shepparton Surrounds - East's median age exceeds the national pattern

Shepparton Surrounds - East's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43, but considerably older than Australia's 38 years as of 2021. The age profile shows that the 15-24 year-olds are particularly prominent at 13.5%, while the 75-84 group is comparatively smaller at 5.3% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and now, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.0% to 14.5% of the population, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 9.1% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 11.8%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 15.2% to 13.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Shepparton Surrounds - East, with the 35 to 44 cohort showing the strongest projected growth at 72%, adding 429 residents to reach 1,022.