Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch as of Nov 2025, Numurkah's statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 4,767. This reflects an increase of 163 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,604 people in Numurkah (SA2). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of a resident population of 4,700 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 84 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 24 persons per square kilometer. Numurkah's growth rate of 3.5% since census is within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.5%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the Numurkah statistical area (Lv2).

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Numurkah statistical area (Lv2) is forecasted to grow by 1,644 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 31.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Numurkah recorded around 26 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 134 homes. So far in FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new dwellings was $442,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment.

There have been $11.6 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Rest of Vic., Numurkah shows approximately 68% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 55th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, reflecting an expanding range of medium-density options. This is a considerable change from the current housing mix of 89.0% houses.

Numurkah has around 288 people per approval, indicating a low density area. Future projections show Numurkah adding 1,481 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Numurkah has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to affect this region: Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, North East Rail Line Upgrade. Below are details of projects likely most relevant.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.1%, Numurkah has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Numurkah has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.1%.

The area's unemployment rate is 0.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, but workforce participation lags behind at 48.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. The area shows strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Public administration & safety is under-represented, at 3.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, labour force decreased by 10.6% and employment declined by 12.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7%. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Numurkah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Numurkah's suburb income level is lower than average nationally according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. Numurkah's median income among taxpayers is $43,443 and average income stands at $49,723. Rest of Vic.'s figures are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $47,027 (median) and $53,825 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Numurkah's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 8th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that 28.9% (1,377 individuals) earn $400 - $799, differing from regional patterns where $1,500 - $2,999 dominates at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 88.7% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at the 13th percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Numurkah's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic.'s figures were 90.8% houses and 9.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah was 45.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 23.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Numurkah was $210, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.1% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9%, consisting of 33.7% lone person households and 2.1% group households. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (29.6%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.9% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows one active public transport stop in Numurkah, offering a mix of bus services. This stop is served by two distinct routes, together offering 53 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as limited, with residents on average located 869 meters from the nearest transport stop.

The service frequency averages seven trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately fifty-three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Numurkah with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% (2,220 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 13.1 and 10.3% of residents respectively. Conversely, 55.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 60.0% across Rest of Vic.. Numurkah has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.5% (1,358 people), compared to the Rest of Vic.'s 27.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah had a cultural diversity level below average, with 87.6% of its population being Australian citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Numurках, comprising 56.0% of the population, compared to 56.1% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.4%), English (33.6%), and Irish (9.7%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was slightly overrepresented at 8.0%, while Dutch was at 1.3%, and Macedonian at 0.1%.

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and higher than Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows a prominent group of 65-74 year-olds, comprising 14.5%, while the 35-44 age group is smaller at 10.5%. Post-2021 Census data indicates the 35-44 age group grew from 9.5% to 10.5%, but the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.3% to 10.2%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 14.3% to 13.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Numurkah's age profile, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to expand by 303 people (57%), reaching 837 individuals. Conversely, numbers in the 55-64 age range are expected to fall by 41.