Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the population of the suburb of Numurkah is estimated at around 4,593 people. This figure reflects a decrease of 11 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,604 people in the area. The current resident population estimate was determined by AreaSearch following an examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 88 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 23 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person within Numurkah. While Numurkah experienced a slight decline of 0.2% since the census, the SA4 region as a whole achieved a growth rate of 1.0%, highlighting divergent population trends between the suburb and its broader region. Recent population growth in the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of locations outside of capital cities is forecast, with the suburb of Numurkah expected to grow by 1,621 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 35.3% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Numurkah recorded approximately 27 residential property approvals per year between FY-21 and FY-25. This totals an estimated 135 homes over the past five financial years. As of FY-26, 27 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.8 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during this period.

The average construction value of new dwellings was $442,000. Commercial approvals reached $11.6 million in FY-26. Relative to Rest of Vic., Numurkah had approximately 69% of the construction activity per person and placed among the 56th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprised 68.0% detached houses and 32.0% attached dwellings.

The area has around 275 people per approval, reflecting a low density area. Future projections estimate Numurkah to add 1,621 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth.

Numurkah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one project expected to impact this region: Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, and North East Rail Line Upgrade are key projects, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Numurkah has been broadly consistent with national averages

Numurkah's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs with varied sector representation. The unemployment rate was 2.9% as of AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, there were 2,025 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% lower than Regional Vic.'s 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Numurkah was 53.6%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, only 9.7% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. Numurkah had a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Public administration & safety was under-represented at 3.5%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 6.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and November 2025, Numurkah's labour force decreased by 5.1% while employment declined by 5.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. had an employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimated that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Numurkah's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Numurkah suburb's income level is lower than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2023. Numurkah's median income among taxpayers was $43,443 and average income stood at $49,723, compared to Regional Vic.'s figures of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $47,622 (median) and $54,506 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, incomes in Numurkah fell between 8th and 13th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income brackets showed that $400-$799 earnings band captured 28.9% of community (1,327 individuals), differing from regional levels where $1,500-$2,999 dominated with 30.3%. Housing costs were modest, with 88.7% of income retained, but total disposable income ranked at just the 13th percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Numurkah's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah stood at 45.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 23.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430, and the median weekly rent was $210, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,083 than Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.1% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (29.6%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.9% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Numurkah has one active public transport stop. This stop is served by two routes that together offer 53 weekly passenger trips. Public transport accessibility in Numurkah is limited, with residents typically living 869 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, primarily using cars (92%), with walking at 6%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 9.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages seven trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Numurkah faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age cohorts exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 47% of the total population (around 2,139 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 13.1 and 10.3% of residents respectively, while 55.4% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.. Among the working-age population, there are notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 30.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,377 people), compared to 23.9% in Regional Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah, surveyed in 2016, had a low cultural diversity with 87.6% citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 56.0%, compared to Regional Vic's 47.3%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (34.4%), English (33.6%), and Irish (9.7%) were top groups.

Notably, Scottish (8.0% vs regional 8.8%), Dutch (1.3% vs 1.7%), and Macedonian (0.1% vs 0.2%) showed slight overrepresentation.

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age is 49, which is higher than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and Australia's average of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, Numurkah has a notably higher percentage of people aged 75-84 (10.5%) but fewer people aged 45-54 (10.0%). Between 2021 and present, the population aged 35-44 grew from 9.5% to 10.7%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 9.3% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group decreased from 12.3% to 10.0%, and the 55-64 age group dropped from 14.3% to 13.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Numurkah's age structure. The 35-44 age cohort is projected to increase by 292 people (60%), from 491 to 784. Meanwhile, the number of people aged 55-64 is expected to decrease by 8.