Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Numurkah is estimated at around 4781, reflecting an increase of 177 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 3.8% increase from the previous figure of 4604 residents. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 4700 residents based on ERP data released by ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 88 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population density translates to approximately 24 persons per square kilometer. Numurkah's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region at 3.7%, positioning it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed around 66% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Numurkah is forecasted to increase by 1675 persons, reflecting a total increase of 33.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Numurkah averaged around 27 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 135 homes. As of FY-26, 23 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, supply has met or surpassed demand at a rate of approximately 0.2 new residents per year per dwelling constructed. This has supported buyer choice and potential population growth while developers focused on the premium market with an average construction cost value of $442,000 for new dwellings.

In FY-26, there have been $11.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Rest of Vic., Numurkah shows approximately 68% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 57th percentile nationally. New building activity comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 89.0% houses) reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

With around 271 people per dwelling approval, Numurkah shows characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Numurkah is expected to grow by 1,594 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Numurkah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to impact this region: Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, and North East Rail Line Upgrade are key initiatives, with the following projects being most relevant.

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The labour market in Numurkah demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Numurkah's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with diverse sectors represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of December 2025, lower than Regional Vic.'s 3.7%. However, workforce participation in Numurkah lagged behind Regional Vic., at 52.0% compared to 61.5%.

A low 9.7% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Employment was concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade, with a notable specialization in the latter sector at 1.5 times the regional level. Public administration & safety employed only 3.5% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 6.5%. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 5.1%, employment fell by 5.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.8 percentage points in Numurkah, contrasting with Regional Vic.'s milder contractions and unemployment drop.

National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local growth rates may differ significantly due to industry-specific projections applied to Numurkah's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Numurkah's median income among taxpayers is $43,443, with an average of $49,723. This is lower than the national average. Regional Vic.'s median income is $50,954 and average is $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Numurkah would be approximately $47,027 (median) and $53,825 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Numurkah fall between the 8th and 13th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 28.9% earning $400-$799 weekly (1,381 residents). In contrast, metropolitan regions have a larger segment earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest in Numurkah, with 88.7% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 13th percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Numurkah's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah stood at 45.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 23.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Numurkah was $210, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,083 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.1% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (29.6%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (9.9%), secondary (8.9%), and tertiary (2.7%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Numurkah has one active public transport stop. It is served by two routes that together offer 53 weekly passenger trips. Transport access in the area is limited, with residents typically living 869 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, primarily using cars (92%), while 6% walk. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 9.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages seven trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 53 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Numurkah faces substantial health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~2,227 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic., and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (10.3%). 55.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 28.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,376 people), higher than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally in line with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah has a lower cultural diversity compared to averages, with 87.6% being citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 56.0% of Numurkah's population, which is higher than the Regional Vic average of 47.3%. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (34.4%), English (33.6%), and Irish (9.7%).

Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Scottish is overrepresented at 8.0% in Numurkah compared to 8.8% regionally, Dutch is underrepresented at 1.3% versus 1.7%, and Macedonian is also underrepresented at 0.1% against the regional average of 0.2%.

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age of 48 years is notably higher than Regional Vic.'s 43 and significantly exceeds the Australian median of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 65-74 years are particularly prevalent, comprising 14.6% of the population, which is considerably higher than the national average of 9.5%. Meanwhile, the 45-54 age group constitutes a relatively smaller proportion at 9.9%, compared to Regional Vic.. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 9.5% to 10.9%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 10.5% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 12.3% to 9.9%, and the 55 to 64 age range has fallen from 14.3% to 13.0%. Demographic projections suggest that Numurkah's age profile will undergo significant changes by 2041, with the 25 to 34 age cohort expected to expand notably, growing by 301 people (54%) from 559 to 861. In contrast, the number of individuals in the 55 to 64 age range is projected to decrease.