Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Numurkah is around 4781, reflecting an increase of 177 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 3.8% rise from the previous population count of 4604. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 4700 residents following their examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024, along with an additional 88 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 24 persons per square kilometer. Numurkah's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region at 3.7%, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Numurkah is forecasted to grow by 1637 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 30.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Numurkah has seen approximately 26 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 134 homes. In FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded so far. The area has experienced an average of 0.1 people moving in per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $442,000, targeting the premium market segment.

Commercial approvals this financial year amount to $11.6 million, showing moderate commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Numurkah demonstrates around 68% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 55th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, offering a mix of housing options across price brackets. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands.

Numurkah's population density is approximately 288 people per approval, indicating a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 1,463 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Numurkah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely to impact the area. Key projects include the Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, and North East Rail Line Upgrade. The following details those most relevant.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.2%, Numurkah has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Numurkah has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.2% as of September 2025, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. This rate is 0.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Numurkah lags behind at 52.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

Census responses indicate that only 9.7% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. Numurkah shows strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Public administration & safety is under-represented, at 3.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Numurkah's labour force decreased by 10.7%, while employment declined by 12.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Numurkah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Numurkah suburb's income level is lower than average nationally based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Numurkah's median income among taxpayers is $43,443 and average income stands at $49,723, compared to Rest of Vic.'s $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. By September 2025, with Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%, estimated incomes would be approximately $47,027 (median) and $53,825 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Numurkah's household, family and personal incomes fall between the 8th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 28.9% of Numurkah community (1,381 individuals), differing from regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3%. Housing costs are modest, with 88.7% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 13th percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Numurkah's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah stood at 45.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (31.2%) or rented (23.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430 and Australia's figure of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Numurkah was $210, significantly lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s $285 and the national average of $375.

Numurkah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.1% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (29.6%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Numurkah has one active public transport stop. It is served by two routes that together offer 53 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in the area is limited, with residents typically living 869 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards using cars, which remain the dominant mode at 92%, while 6% walk. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 9.7% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages seven trips per day, resulting in approximately 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Numurkah faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~2,227 people), compared to 50.5% in Rest of Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (10.3%). However, 55.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic.. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 28.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,362 people), higher than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning broadly with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 87.6% of its population being Australian citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Numurkah, accounting for 56.0% of the population, compared to 47.3% across the rest of Victoria. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.4%), English (33.6%), and Irish (9.7%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented in Numurkah at 8.0%, compared to 8.8% regionally. Dutch ancestry was also slightly underrepresented at 1.3%, versus 1.7%. Macedonian ancestry was present at 0.1%, slightly below the regional average of 0.2%.

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 14.4% of the population, while those aged 45-54 comprise 9.8%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 9.5% to 10.7%, but the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.3% to 9.8%. Additionally, the 55 to 64 age group has dropped from 14.3% to 12.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Numurkah's age profile. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to expand by 293 people (54%), growing from 545 to 839. Conversely, the number of those aged 55-64 is expected to fall.