Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Numurkah's estimated population is around 4,751, reflecting a 3.2% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 4,604 people. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and ABS ERP estimates for surrounding areas applied to Numurkah. By June 2024, AreaSearch estimated the resident population at 4,700, with an additional 84 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 24 persons per square kilometer. Numurkah's growth rate of 3.2% since the last census is comparable to its SA4 region's growth of 3.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Numurkah is forecasted to grow by 1,641 persons, reflecting a total increase of 31.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Numurkah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Numurkah recorded approximately 27 residential properties granted approval per year between FY-21 and FY-25. This totals an estimated 137 homes over the past five financial years. As of FY-26, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and potential for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings was $442,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalling $20.0 million have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Numurkah has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, it ranks in the 81st percentile of areas assessed for development activity, which has picked up recently. Recent construction comprises 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. With around 132 people per dwelling approval, Numurkah shows characteristics of a low density area. Future projections estimate Numurkah will add 1,494 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Numurkah has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the region: Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, and North East Rail Line Upgrade are key projects, with the following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.6%, Numurkah has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Numurkah has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.6%.

This is below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, but workforce participation lags at 48.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 3.5% versus the regional average of 6.5%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Numurkah's labour force decreased by 14.5%, with employment decreasing by 15.5%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, the labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Numurkah. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with industry-specific projections suggesting local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Numurkah's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $43,443. The average income stood at $49,723 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. As of September 2025, current estimates project Numurkah's median income to be approximately $48,726 and average income at around $55,769, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Numurkah fall between the 8th and 13th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment of residents, comprising 28.9%, earn between $400 and $799 weekly (1,373 residents). This differs from the surrounding region where the $1,500 to $2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.7% of income retention, Numurkah's total disposable income ranks at just the 13th percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Numurkah's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.8% houses and 9.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah stood at 45.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 23.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Numurkah was $210, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.1% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate stands at 13.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with a rate of 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 39.9% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (29.6%). Current educational participation is high at 27.7%, comprising 9.9% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Numurkah's three schools have a combined enrollment of 641 students, with varied educational conditions indicated by an ICSEA score of 946. Education provision is balanced, serving distinct age groups through two primary and one secondary school.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Numurkah has one active public transport stop operating, offering a mix of bus services. This stop is served by six different routes that collectively facilitate 92 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is limited, with residents typically residing 869 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 13 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 92 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Numurkah, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~2,213 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 13.1% and 10.3% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 55.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 60.0% across Rest of Vic. The area has 28.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,354 people), which is higher than the 27.0% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.6% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Numurkah, accounting for 56.0% of people, compared to 56.1% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups in Numurkah were Australian (34.4%), English (33.6%), and Irish (9.7%).

Notably, Scottish representation was slightly higher at 8.0%, Dutch was similar at 1.3%, and Macedonian remained the same at 0.1% compared to regional figures of 8.3%, 1.2%, and 0.1% respectively.

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age is 48 years, which is older than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 14.5% of the population, while the 35-44 age group comprises only 10.5%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has grown from 9.5% to 10.5%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.3% to 10.2% and the 55-64 group has dropped from 14.3% to 13.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Numurkah's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to increase considerably, adding 300 people (a 56% rise) from 536 to 837. Conversely, numbers in the 55-64 age range are expected to decrease.