Shepparton

Population growth drivers in Shepparton are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Shepparton's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 32,947, an increase of 880 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was recorded at 32,067. This growth, representing a 2.7% increase, is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 32,317 as of June 2024, along with an additional 719 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density in Shepparton stands at 771 persons per square kilometer. This growth rate is competitive, being within 0.8 percentage points of the SA4 region's 3.5% growth since census. Overseas migration contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by the former data set. Future population trends predict exceptional growth, placing Shepparton among the top 10 percent of non-metropolitan areas nationally. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 18,135 persons, reflecting a total increase of 53.3% over the seventeen years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Shepparton when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Shepparton averaged approximately 190 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 954 homes. As of FY26129 approvals have been recorded. The average population growth per dwelling built in the area between FY21 and FY25 was 0.3 people per year, suggesting supply is meeting or exceeding demand. New homes are being constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $458,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $191.2 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting significant local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Shepparton records 13.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 75th percentile nationally. New building activity consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an average of around 163 people per dwelling approval.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Shepparton is projected to grow by 17,548 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Shepparton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Kialla North Growth Corridor, Shepparton Sports & Events Centre Redevelopment, Goulburn Valley Integrated Cancer Centre, and Princess Park Multi Use Events Pavilion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Shepparton lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Shepparton has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.6%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 14,343 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation in Shepparton is somewhat below standard at 54.1%, against Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Health care & social assistance has a notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Public administration & safety, however, has limited presence at 4.2%, compared to the regional average of 6.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 10.5% and employment decreased by 12.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7%, the labour force fell by 0.6%, and unemployment rose marginally. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shepparton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Shepparton had a median taxpayer income of $45,725 and an average of $55,848. These figures are below the national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively in Rest of Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $49,497 (median) and $60,455 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Shepparton's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 19th and 24th percentiles nationally. In Shepparton, 30.0% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the broader area at 30.3%. After housing costs, 85.3% of income remains, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Shepparton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Shepparton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 85.1% houses and 14.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shepparton stood at 32.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.8% and rented ones at 39.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,249, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent in Shepparton was $270, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $260. Nationally, Shepparton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,249 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.5% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households at 31.6% and group households making up 4.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Shepparton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (24.0%). Educational participation is high at 30.5%, with 10.7% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shepparton has 273 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 20 different routes, collectively facilitating 1,439 weekly passenger trips. The city's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 173 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 205 trips per day, translating to roughly five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shepparton is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Shepparton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 49% (around 16,137 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 9.9% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 9.4%). A total of 64.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Vic's figure of 64.8%. The area has a senior population of 18.9%, comprising approximately 6,226 people aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges to those seen in the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shepparton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.1% of its population born overseas and 25.4% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Shepparton, accounting for 47.4%. However, Islam was significantly more prevalent in Shepparton at 10.9%, compared to 7.0% in the rest of Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups were English at 25.7%, Australian at 24.1%, and Other at 14.2%. Italian, Samoan, and Macedonian ethnicities showed notable differences: Italians made up 5.5% (vs regional 6.0%), Samoans 0.5% (vs 0.4%), and Macedonians 0.4% (vs 0.4%).

Shepparton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Shepparton has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group is strongly represented at 16.3%, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has grown from 14.7% to 16.3% of the population, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.8% to 12.9%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Shepparton's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. Leading this demographic shift, the 25-34 group is projected to grow by 82%, adding 4,410 people and reaching a total of 9,781 from its current figure of 5,370.