Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Numurkah's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 12,653, representing an increase of 98 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was recorded at 12,555. This growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,493 as of June 2024 and an additional 160 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 5.5 persons per square kilometer. Numurkah's growth rate of 0.8% since the census is within 2.9 percentage points of the SA4 region's 3.7%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.4% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 4,353 persons, reflecting a total increase of 33.1% over the 17-year period, placing it in the top quartile of non-metropolitan population growth nationally.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Numurkah has received approximately 47 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 235 homes were approved, with an additional 27 approved so far in FY26. The population has been declining recently, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $316,000. In the current financial year, commercial development approvals amount to $21.6 million, indicating moderate levels of commercial development compared to other areas in Victoria. Numurkah shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 56.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The new developments consist of 72.0% detached dwellings and 28.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (93.0%).

The location has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Numurkah is projected to grow by 4,193 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Numurkah has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 26thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones are Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Cobram Village, Cobram Secondary College Modular Building, and VICSES Cobram Unit. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Numurkah presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 2.9%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Numurkah has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 2.9% as of September 2025. It employs 5,947 residents with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is somewhat lower at 59.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

According to Census responses, 14.9% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs 2.9 times the regional level while public administration & safety employs only 2.7%, below Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, with a decrease in labour force by 10.4% and employment decline by 11.8% during September 2024 to September 2025, causing unemployment to rise by 1.6 percentage points.

National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Numurkah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2023 indicates that Numurkah SA2 had a median income of $46,231 and an average income of $53,418. This is lower than the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Rest of Vic. Assuming an 8.25% increase based on Wage Price Index growth since June 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,045 (median) and $57,825 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Numurkah's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally. The income band of $1,500 - $2,999 captures 29.8% (3,770 individuals) of Numurkah's community, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% fall within this range. Housing costs are modest with 89.1% of income retained, yet total disposable income ranks at the 22nd percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Numurkah's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah stood at 45.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.6% and rented ones at 18.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,172, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Numurkah was $210, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (30.8%). Educational participation is high, with 28.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.6% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Numurkah has 16 active public transport stops served by three routes offering 73 weekly passenger trips. Residents have limited access to transport, with an average distance of 825 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car is the dominant mode of transport at 90%, with 7% walking. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 14.9% of Numurkah residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 10 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Numurkah faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 5,896 people), compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.8% and 9.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.6% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in the rest of Victoria. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.9% of residents aged 65 and over (around 3,029 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but generally align with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah had low cultural diversity, with 87.9% citizens, 91.3% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 53.2%, compared to 47.3% regionally. Top ancestry groups were Australian (34.7%), English (32.8%), and Irish (9.5%).

Dutch, Scottish, and Maltese groups had notable variations: Dutch at 1.5% (vs regional 1.7%), Scottish at 8.1% (vs 8.8%), Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.5%).

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age of 45 years is modestly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 43 years, and considerably older than the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Vic. average, the 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Numurkah at 13.9%, while the 45-54 age group is under-represented at 10.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.2% to 11.6% of Numurkah's population, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 10.6% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 10.3%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 15.3% to 13.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Numurkah's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 849 people (58%) from 1,463 to 2,313. Conversely, numbers in the 55 to 64 age range are expected to fall by 32.