Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Numurkah's population was approximately 12,448 as of May 2026. This figure represents a decrease of 107 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,555. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 12,446 in June 2025 and validated new addresses totalling 171 since the Census date. This results in a population density of 5.4 persons per square kilometer. In contrast to Numurkah's decline of 0.9%, the SA4 region experienced growth of 1.0%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 4,296 persons, reflecting a total increase of 34.5% over the 16-year period, based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Numurkah has received approximately 47 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 235 homes were approved, with an additional 37 approved so far in FY26. The average expected construction cost for new dwellings is $316,000.

In terms of commercial development, Numurkah has recorded $21.6 million in approvals this financial year. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Numurkah shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 56.0% fewer dwelling approvals per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The new developments consist of 72.0% detached dwellings and 28.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character. However, this represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses at 93.0%.

This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Numurkah is expected to grow by 4,294 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Numurkah has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 27thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact the region. Notable ones include the Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Cobram Village project, Cobram Secondary College Modular Building initiative, and VICSES Cobram Unit development. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Numurkah ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Numurkah has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 2.5%. As of December 2025, 6,031 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% lower than Regional Vic.'s 3.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%.

According to Census responses, 14.9% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs 2.9 times the regional level, while public administration & safety employs 2.7%, below Regional Vic.'s 6.5%. The area may have limited local employment opportunities.

During December 2025 to December 2026, labour force decreased by 5.0% and employment declined by 5.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s employment fell by 0.6%, labour force contracted by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Numurkah's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.9% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2023 shows that Numurkah SA2 has lower income compared to national averages. The median income is $46,231 and the average is $53,418. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from July 1, 2023 to March 31, 2026, current estimates for Numurkah would be approximately $50,678 (median) and $58,557 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Numurkah fall between the 16th percentile nationally. The data shows that 29.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% occupy this range. Housing costs are modest with 89.1% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at the 22nd percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Numurkah's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah stood at 45.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.6% and rented ones at 18.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,172, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Numurkah was $210, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,172 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.7 percent of all households, including 25.4 percent couples with children, 30.8 percent couples without children, and 10.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.3 percent, with lone person households at 29.5 percent and group households comprising 2.8 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional Vic. average.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (30.8%). Educational participation is high, with 28.1% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.6%), secondary education (9.1%), and tertiary education (2.1%).

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Numurkah has 16 active public transport stops. These are served by three routes offering a total of 73 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is limited with residents typically living 825 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car use dominates at 90%, with 7% walking. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.9% of Numurkah's residents work from home. Service frequency averages 10 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Numurkah faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,800 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.8%) and mental health issues (9.9%). Conversely, 59.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, 24.8% of Numurkah's residents are aged 65 and over (3,090 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah had a lower level of cultural diversity, with 87.9% of its population being citizens, 91.3% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Numurkah, accounting for 53.2%, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.7%), English (32.8%), and Irish (9.5%).

Notably, Dutch ancestry was higher than average at 1.5%, Scottish at 8.1%, and Maltese at 0.4%.

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age is 46, which is older than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group makes up 14.1% of Numurkah's population compared to Regional Vic., while the 45-54 cohort comprises 10.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35-44 age group grew from 10.2% to 11.4%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 7.0% to 8.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.8% to 10.5%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 15.3% to 14.1%. By 2041, Numurkah's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 35-44 group is projected to grow by 60%, reaching 2,278 people from 1,425. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is anticipated to decline by 12 people.