Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Numurkah's population is around 12,653 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 98 people (0.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,555 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,493 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 160 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 5.5 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Numurkah's 0.8% growth since the census positions it within 2.9 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 66.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 4,353 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 33.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Numurkah has experienced around 47 dwellings receiving development approval each year, with 235 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 31 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $316,000. Additionally, $21.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Numurkah shows substantially reduced construction (56.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 72.0% detached dwellings and 28.0% apartments or townhouses, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 93.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

Looking ahead, Numurkah is expected to grow by 4,193 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Numurkah has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 26thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 8 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Cobram Village, Cobram Secondary College Modular Building, and VICSES Cobram Unit, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Numurkah ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Numurkah has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of just 2.5%. As of December 2025, 6,031 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. The area shows particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 2.9 times the regional level. In contrast, public administration & safety employs just 2.7% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 6.5%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 5.0% alongside a 5.6% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. This compares to Regional Vic., where employment fell by 0.6%, labour force contracted by 0.7%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Numurkah. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Numurkah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Numurkah SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $46,231 while the average income stands at $53,418. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,045 (median) and $57,825 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Numurkah all fall between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.8% of the community (3,770 individuals), reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. While housing costs are modest with 89.1% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 22nd percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Numurkah, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Numurkah was well beyond that of Regional Vic., at 45.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (35.6%) or rented (18.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $1,172, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $210, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 67.7% of all households, comprising 25.4% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional Vic. average.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.1%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (30.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 16 active transport stops operating within Numurkah. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 73 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 825 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 14.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 10 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Numurkah, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,896 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.8 and 9.9% of residents, respectively, while 59.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,029 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.9% of its population being citizens, 91.3% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Numurkah is Christianity, which makes up 53.2% of people in Numurkah, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Numurkah are Australian, comprising 34.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 29.6%, English, comprising 32.8% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is represented at 1.5% of Numurkah (vs 1.7% regionally), Scottish at 8.1% (vs 8.8%) and Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.5%).

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age of 45 years modestly exceeds Regional Vic.'s 43 and is considerably older than the national norm of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (13.9% locally), while 45 - 54 year-olds are under-represented (10.3%). In the period since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.2% to 11.6% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 10.6% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 10.3% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 15.3% to 13.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Numurkah's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 849 people (58%) from 1,463 to 2,313. Conversely, numbers in the 55 to 64 age range are expected to fall by 32.