Numurkah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Numurkah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Numurkah's population was around 12,624 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 69 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,555. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,495 in June 2024 and an additional 148 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 5.4 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth, contributing approximately 66.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. A significant population increase was forecast for the top quartile of locations outside capital cities, with the area expected to grow by 4,353 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 33.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Numurkah according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Numurkah has seen approximately 47 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25235 homes were approved, with an additional 25 approved in FY26 so far. The population has been declining recently, suggesting that new supply has likely met demand, providing good options for buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $316,000. This financial year has seen $21.6 million in commercial development approvals, indicating moderate commercial growth compared to the rest of Victoria. Numurkah shows significantly reduced construction levels, 56.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New developments consist of 72.0% detached dwellings and 28.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 93.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The location has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Numurkah is projected to grow by 4,222 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Numurkah has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may impact the area. Notable ones are Katunga Water Supply Pipeline Project, Cobram Village, Cobram Secondary College Modular Building, and VICSES Cobram Unit. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Numurkah presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 2.9%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Numurkah has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 2.9% as of September 2025. There are 5,947 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 0.9% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.9 times the regional level. Public administration & safety employs only 2.7% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%.

There appears to be limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 10.4%, employment declined by 11.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.7% and labour force contracted by 0.6%. State-level data shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year (adding 41,950 jobs) to 25-Nov-25, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Numurkah's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.9% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Numurkah SA2 had a median income of $45,074 and an average income of $51,589. This is lower than the national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average) for Rest of Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $50,555 and an average income of $57,862 as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Numurkah all fall between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally. In Numurkah, 29.8% (3,761 individuals) of the community earns between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% fall into this range. Housing costs are modest with 89.1% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 22nd percentile nationally.

Numurkah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Numurkah's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.8% houses and 9.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Numurkah stood at 45.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.6% and rented at 18.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,172, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Numurkah was $210, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Numurkah's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Numurkah has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Numurkah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (30.8%). Educational participation is high at 28.1%, comprising primary education (10.6%), secondary education (9.1%), and tertiary education (2.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Numurkah shows 16 active public transport stops operating. These are a mix of bus stops serviced by 9 individual routes. Together, these provide 129 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is limited with residents typically located 825 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 18 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Numurkah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Numurkah faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, covering around 5,857 people, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.8%) and mental health issues (9.9%). About 59.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 60.0% in Rest of Vic.. Numurkah has 23.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,022 people), lower than the 27.0% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Numurkah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Numurkah has a cultural diversity index below the average, with 87.9% of its population being citizens, 91.3% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Numurkah, with 53.2% of people adhering to it, compared to 56.1% across Rest of Vic. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (34.7%), English (32.8%), and Irish (9.5%).

Notably, Dutch (1.5%) and Scottish (8.1%) groups are overrepresented in Numurkah compared to regional averages of 1.2% and 8.3%, respectively. Maltese representation is similar at 0.4%.

Numurkah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Numurkah's median age is 46, which is higher than Victoria's figure of 43 and significantly above the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 14.3% of Numurkah's population, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 45-54 cohort makes up 10.7%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 10.2% to 11.3%, whereas the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 12.8% to 10.7% and the 55 to 64 group has fallen from 15.3% to 14.3%. By 2041, Numurkah's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 35 to 44 group is projected to grow by 62%, reaching 2,313 people from 1,423. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort is anticipated to decline by 74 people.