Shepparton - South East

Population growth drivers in Shepparton - South East are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Shepparton - South East's population is around 16,835 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 315 people (1.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,520 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,483 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 246 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 255 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Shepparton - South East's 1.9% growth since the census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 75.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 8,962 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 51.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Shepparton - South East when compared nationally

Shepparton - South East has experienced around 86 dwellings receiving development approval per year, totalling 432 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 55 approvals have been recorded. With population declining over recent years, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, a positive for buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $254,000, aligned with broader regional development. Additionally, $13.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against Rest of Vic., Shepparton - South East records about three-quarters the building activity per person while it places among the 73rd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity shows 62.0% standalone homes and 38.0% medium and high-density housing, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 87.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 170 people per dwelling approval, Shepparton - South East shows characteristics of a low density area.

Future projections show Shepparton - South East adding 8,608 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Shepparton - South East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 28 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Shepparton South East Precinct Structure Plan, Kialla North Growth Corridor, Goulburn Valley Water Infrastructure Upgrades, and Wyndham Street 7-Eleven Convenience Store, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Shepparton - South East are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Shepparton - South East possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 5.2%. As of December 2025, 6,793 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.5% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation lags significantly (53.5% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 7.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area shows particularly strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 3.9% versus the regional average of 6.5%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 5.1% alongside a 6.5% employment decline, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 1.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Shepparton - South East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shepparton - South East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Shepparton - South East SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,319, with the average level standing at $58,137. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,305 (median) and $62,933 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Shepparton - South East all fall between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the largest segment comprises 30.1% earning $800 - 1,499 weekly (5,067 residents), diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Shepparton - South East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Shepparton - South East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Shepparton - South East lagged that of Regional Vic. at 33.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.1%) or rented (38.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Vic. average at $1,166, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $270, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Shepparton - South East's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton - South East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.6% of all households, comprising 24.6% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households comprising 4.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Shepparton - South East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.5%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 118 active transport stops operating within Shepparton - South East, comprising a mix of train services. These stops are serviced by 20 individual routes, collectively providing 1,439 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 286 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 7.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 205 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Shepparton - South East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Shepparton - South East, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~8,114 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.8% and 8.9% of residents, respectively, while 65.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,239 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shepparton - South East was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton - South East is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 31.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Shepparton - South East is Christianity, which makes up 44.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 16.4% of the population, substantially higher than the Regional Vic. average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Shepparton - South East are English, comprising 23.7% of the population (notably lower than the regional average of 30.7%), Australian, comprising 22.8% of the population (notably lower than the regional average of 29.6%), and Other, comprising 18.4% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 4.7%). Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Italian is overrepresented at 6.5% in Shepparton - South East (vs 2.9% regionally), Macedonian at 0.7% (vs 0.2%), and Samoan at 0.6% (vs 0.1%).

Shepparton - South East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 36-year median age in Shepparton - South East is significantly below Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and similarly younger than Australia's 38 years. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 17.9% compared to Regional Vic., whereas the 65 - 74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 15.2% to 17.9% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.9% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has declined from 11.7% to 10.6% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 10.8% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Shepparton - South East. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 68% (2,039 people), reaching 5,046 from 3,006.