Shepparton - South East
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Shepparton - South East are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Shepparton - South East's population was around 16,854 as of November 2025. This showed an increase of 334 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 16,520. The growth was inferred from ABS estimates of 16,492 in June 2024 and validated new addresses since then. The population density was 256 persons per square kilometer. Shepparton - South East's growth rate of 2.0% since the Census compared favourably with its SA4 region at 3.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch used ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections were utilised in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Future growth trends predicted exceptional growth for the area, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas. The population is expected to increase by 8,962 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 51.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Shepparton - South East when compared nationally

Shepparton - South East has received approximately 86 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 432 homes. As of FY-26, 44 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to other areas, benefiting buyers. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $254,000, aligning with broader regional trends.

This financial year, $13.8 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Shepparton - South East records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 74th percentile nationally in terms of new building activity. Approximately 62.0% of approved dwellings are standalone homes, while 38.0% are medium and high-density housing. This shift from the current housing mix (87.0% houses) reflects reduced development site availability and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 170 people per dwelling approval, Shepparton - South East exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Future projections suggest that by 2041, Shepparton - South East will add approximately 8,589 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Shepparton - South East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 28 projects that could impact the area, with major ones including the Shepparton South East Precinct Structure Plan, Goulburn Valley Water Infrastructure Upgrades, Kialla North Growth Corridor, and Wyndham Street 7-Eleven Convenience Store. The following list provides details on those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Shepparton - South East are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Shepparton - South East has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 4.4% as of June 2025. It has 6,628 residents in work, which is 0.6% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

The workforce participation is lower at 50.1% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with a strong specialization in manufacturing at 1.3 times the regional level. Public administration & safety has lower representation at 3.9% versus the regional average of 6.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

In the 12 months ending June 2025, labour force decreased by 14.3% and employment declined by 15.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Shepparton - South East, indicating a local growth of approximately 5.7% over five years and 12.5% over ten years based on industry-specific projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Shepparton - South East had a median taxpayer income of $46,208 and an average income of $56,426. These figures are below the national averages of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively for Rest of Vic. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $51,827, with average income at $63,287. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Shepparton - South East fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. Income analysis indicates that the largest segment comprises 30.1% earning $800-$1,499 weekly (5,073 residents), differing from broader area where $1,500-$2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 12th percentile.

Shepparton - South East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Shepparton - South East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shepparton - South East stood at 33.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.1% and rented ones at 38.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,166, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent figure in Shepparton - South East was $270, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $260. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents stood at $375.

Shepparton - South East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 64.6% of all households, including 24.6% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households making up 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Shepparton - South East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has lower university qualification rates at 13.5%, compared to the VIC average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.0%).

Educational participation is high at 30.3%, including primary education (11.3%), secondary education (8.5%), and tertiary education (2.4%). There are 10 schools in Shepparton - South East, educating approximately 1,985 students. The area has varied educational conditions with 8 primary and 2 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents are lower at 11.8 compared to the regional average of 16.0, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shepparton - South East has 118 active public transport stops. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. There are 33 individual routes operating, collectively providing 1,555 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 286 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 222 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shepparton - South East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Shepparton - South East faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~8,089 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 9.8%) and mental health issues (impacting 8.9%), while 65.1% report being free from medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's 64.8%. As of 2021, 19.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (~3,269 people). Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges to those faced by the general population.

Shepparton - South East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton-South East had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 31.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Shepparton-South East, comprising 44.3%. Islam was overrepresented at 16.4%, compared to the Rest of Vic average of 7.0%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (23.7%), Australian (22.8%), and Other (18.4%), which was higher than the regional average of 10.3%.

Italian (6.5% vs 6.0%), Macedonian (0.7% vs 0.4%), and Samoan (0.6% vs 0.4%) groups were notably overrepresented in Shepparton-South East compared to regional averages.

Shepparton - South East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Shepparton-South East is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic's average of 43 and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are prominent at 17.2%, while those aged 65-74 are smaller in number at 9.6% compared to Rest of Vic. From 2021 to present, the proportion of 25-34 year-olds has increased from 15.2% to 17.2%, and the 35-44 age group has risen from 11.9% to 12.9%. Conversely, the 15-24 age cohort has decreased from 11.7% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shepparton-South East's age structure, with the 25-34 age group projected to rise substantially by 2,147 people (74%), from 2,898 to 5,046.