Shepparton - South East

Population growth drivers in Shepparton - South East are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Shepparton - South East's population was around 16,453 as of May 2026. This reflected a decrease of 67 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,520 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,336 in June 2025 and an additional 315 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 249 persons per square kilometer. While Shepparton - South East experienced a 0.4% decline since census, the SA4 region achieved 1.0% growth. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 71.0%.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 were used with adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth, placing the area in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with an expected increase of 8,714 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 52.2% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Shepparton - South East when compared nationally

Shepparton - South East has received approximately 86 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totaling 432 homes. As of FY-26, 65 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to its size, benefiting buyers. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $254,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

This financial year has seen $13.8 million in commercial development approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Shepparton - South East records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 73rd percentile nationally. New building activity consists of 62.0% standalone homes and 38.0% medium and high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to compact options. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix of 87.0% houses.

With around 170 people per dwelling approval, Shepparton - South East exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 8,595 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Shepparton - South East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 28 projects potentially affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Shepparton South East Precinct Structure Plan, Kialla North Growth Corridor, Goulburn Valley Water Infrastructure Upgrades, and Wyndham Street 7-Eleven Convenience Store. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Shepparton - South East are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Shepparton - South East has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sectors represented, and an unemployment rate of 5.2% as of December 2025. The area has 6,793 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 1.5% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.0%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%.

According to Census responses, only 7.0% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with a strong specialization in manufacturing at 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety has lower representation at 3.9%, compared to the regional average of 6.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

In the 12 months prior, labour force decreased by 5.1% and employment declined by 6.5%, leading to a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shepparton - South East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Shepparton - South East SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $48,319 and an average of $58,137. These figures are below the national averages of $50,954 and $62,728 for Regional Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated median income is approximately $52,967 and average is $63,720 by March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Shepparton - South East fall between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis reveals that 30.1% of residents earn $800-$1,499 weekly (4,952 residents), differing from broader area where $1,500-$2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Shepparton - South East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Shepparton - South East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shepparton - South East was at 33.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.1% and rented dwellings at 38.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,166, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Shepparton - South East was $270, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton - South East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.6 percent of all households, including 24.6 percent couples with children, 24.9 percent couples without children, and 13.8 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.4 percent, with lone person households at 30.9 percent and group households comprising 4.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Shepparton - South East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high, with 30.3% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 118 active transport stops operating within Shepparton - South East. These comprise a mix of train services and are serviced by 20 individual routes, collectively providing 1,439 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 286 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 7.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 205 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Shepparton - South East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Shepparton - South East faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment conducted on 18th May 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover was found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population (7,930 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.8% and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 65.1% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age residents showed above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,335 people), lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shepparton - South East was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton-South East has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 31.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Shepparton-South East, comprising 44.3%. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented at 16.4%, compared to Regional Vic's average of 1.0%. The top three ancestry groups are English (23.7%), Australian (22.8%), and Other (18.4%).

Notably, Italian (6.5% vs regional 2.9%), Macedonian (0.7% vs 0.2%), and Samoan (0.6% vs 0.1%) groups are overrepresented in Shepparton-South East.

Shepparton - South East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Shepparton - South East is 37 years, which is lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 16.8%, while those aged 65-74 comprise 9.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 15.2% to 16.8%, the 35-44 cohort has risen from 11.9% to 13.4%, and the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 10.8% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shepparton - South East's age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 1,914 people (69%) from 2,762 to 4,677.