Shepparton - South East

Population growth drivers in Shepparton - South East are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Shepparton - South East's population was around 16,835 as of February 2026. This showed an increase of 315 people, a 1.9% rise from the 2021 Census figure of 16,520. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 16,483 in June 2024 and 246 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 255 persons per square kilometer. Shepparton - South East's growth rate was within 1.8 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth, placing Shepparton - South East in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 8,962 persons, reflecting a total increase of 51.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Shepparton - South East when compared nationally

Shepparton - South East has received approximately 86 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 432 homes. As of FY-26, 53 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to other areas. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $254,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

This financial year has seen $13.8 million in commercial development approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Shepparton - South East records around three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 73rd percentile nationally for new building activity. Approximately 62% of approved dwellings are standalone homes, with the remaining 38% being medium or high-density housing. This shift from the current housing mix (87% houses) reflects reduced development site availability and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 170 people per dwelling approval, Shepparton - South East exhibits characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the region is projected to add 8,608 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Shepparton - South East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 28 projects that are expected to impact the area significantly. Among these key projects are the Shepparton South East Precinct Structure Plan, Kialla North Growth Corridor, Goulburn Valley Water Infrastructure Upgrades, and Wyndham Street 7-Eleven Convenience Store. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Shepparton - South East are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Shepparton - South East has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sectors represented, and an unemployment rate of 5.5% as of September 2025. The unemployment rate is 1.8% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is lower at 53.0%. Only 7.0% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts.

Top industries for employment are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with manufacturing showing strong specialization at 1.3 times the regional level. Public administration & safety has lower representation at 3.9%, compared to the regional average of 6.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and August 2025, labour force decreased by 10.4% and employment declined by 12.9%, increasing unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points.

In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw a marginal rise in unemployment with smaller contractions in employment and labour force. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shepparton - South East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Shepparton - South East SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,319 with an average level of $58,137. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Rest of Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $52,305 (median) and $62,933 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Shepparton - South East all fall between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.1% earning $800-$1,499 weekly (5,067 residents), differing from the broader area where the $1,500-$2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Shepparton - South East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Shepparton - South East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shepparton - South East stood at 33.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.1%) or rented (38.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,166, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure for Shepparton - South East was $270, while Non-Metro Vic.'s figure was $285. Nationally, Shepparton - South East's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton - South East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.6% of all households, including 24.6% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households making up 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Shepparton - South East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shepparton - South East has 118 active public transport stops operating within it. These stops are serviced by 20 individual routes, collectively providing 1,439 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 286 meters from the nearest transport stop. Most residents commute outward due to its primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 7.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 205 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Shepparton - South East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Shepparton - South East faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~8,114 people), compared to 50.5% in Rest of Vic.

and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.8%) and mental health issues (8.9%). 65.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,239 people), lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shepparton - South East was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton-South East has a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 31.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Shepparton-South East, making up 44.3% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to the regional average, comprising 16.4% of the population. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (23.7%), Australian (22.8%), and Other (18.4%).

Notably, Italian (6.5%) and Macedonian (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Samoan (0.6%) is also notably higher than the regional average.

Shepparton - South East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Shepparton - South East is 36 years, significantly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and somewhat younger than Australia's 38 years. The 25-34 age group shows strong representation at 17.9%, compared to Rest of Vic., whereas the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 25 to 34 age group grew from 15.2% to 17.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.9% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort declined from 11.7% to 10.6% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 10.8% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Shepparton - South East, with the 25 to 34 age group set to grow by 68%, reaching 5,046 people from 3,006.