Shepparton - South East
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Shepparton - South East are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

AreaSearch's analysis indicates Shepparton - South East's population was approximately 16,792 as of August 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 272 people (1.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,520. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 16,490 in June 2024 and 222 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 255 persons per square kilometer. Shepparton - South East's growth rate of 1.6% since census is within 1.0 percentage points of its SA4 region (2.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends predict exceptional growth, placing Shepparton - South East in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 8,962 persons based on latest population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 51.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Shepparton - South East when compared nationally

Shepparton - South East has received approximately 86 dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that from FY21 to FY25, there were a total of 432 dwelling approvals, with an additional 17 approved in FY26 so far. Despite population decline, new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering diverse housing options for buyers at an average construction cost value of $380,000, which is below regional levels. This year, commercial approvals totalled $13.8 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Shepparton - South East records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 74th percentile nationally. New building activity comprises 62% standalone homes and 38% medium-high density housing, reflecting a growing trend towards attached housing types. This shift indicates reduced development site availability and addresses evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, marking a significant change from the current housing mix of 87% houses. With around 170 people per dwelling approval, Shepparton - South East exhibits characteristics of a low-density area.

Future projections estimate an addition of 8651 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and driving price increases.

Shepparton - South East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 29 projects that could potentially impact the area's performance due to changes in local infrastructure. Notable projects include the Shepparton South East Precinct Structure Plan, Goulburn Valley Water Infrastructure Upgrades, Kialla North Growth Corridor, and Wyndham Street 7-Eleven Convenience Store. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Shepparton - South East are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Shepparton - South East has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate is 4.4%.

This is 0.6% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Shepparton - South East lags at 50.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with a strong specialisation in manufacturing at 1.3 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 3.9% versus the regional average of 6.5%.

In the 12 months prior to June 2025, labour force decreased by 14.3%, and employment declined by 15.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shepparton - South East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.7%% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022 shows Shepparton - South East had a median taxpayer income of $46,208 and an average income of $56,426. These figures are below the national averages of $51,398 and $67,472 respectively. In comparison, Rest of Vic has median and average incomes of $48,741 and $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2022 to March 2025 (an estimated increase of 10.11%), current income estimates would be approximately $50,880 (median) and $62,131 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Shepparton - South East fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.1% of residents earning $800-$1,499 weekly (5,054 residents), differing from broader area trends where the $1,500-$2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Shepparton - South East, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Shepparton - South East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Shepparton - South East's dwelling structures in the latest Census were 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Non-Metro Vic.'s figures were 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shepparton - South East was 33.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.1% and rented ones at 38.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment there was $1,166, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $1,300. Weekly rent in Shepparton - South East was $270, versus Non-Metro Vic.'s $260. Nationally, Shepparton - South East's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,166 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton - South East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 64.6% of all households, including 24.6% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for 35.4%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of Vic.

Shepparton - South East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 25.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education. There are 10 schools operating within Shepparton - South East, educating approximately 1,985 students. Eight of these are primary schools and two are secondary schools, serving distinct age groups. The school places per 100 residents is 11.8, below the regional average of 16.0, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis shows 118 active transport stops in Shepparton - South East, offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 33 unique routes, collectively facilitating 1,555 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living 286 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 222 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shepparton - South East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Shepparton - South East faces significant health challenges, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% (~8,060 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.8%) and mental health issues (8.9%). 65.1% reported no medical ailments, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 64.8%. As of 2021, 19.4% (~3,257 people) are aged 65 and over. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Shepparton - South East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton-South East has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 31.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Shepparton-South East, making up 44.3% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, comprising 16.4%, compared to the Rest of Vic average of 7.0%. The top three ancestry groups are English (23.7%), Australian (22.8%), and Other (18.4%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 10.3%.

Italian, Macedonian, and Samoan ethnicities are overrepresented in Shepparton-South East at 6.5%, 0.7%, and 0.6% respectively, compared to their regional averages of 6.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4%.

Shepparton - South East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Shepparton - South East is 37 years, lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 17.2%, while those aged 65-74 are smaller at 9.6% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 15.2% to 17.2%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.9% to 12.9%. Conversely, the 15-24 age group declined from 11.7% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Shepparton - South East's age structure, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to rise substantially by 2,157 people (75%), reaching a total of 5,046.