Shepparton - South East

Population growth drivers in Shepparton - South East are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Shepparton - South East's population was around 16,854 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This reflected an increase of 334 people (2.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,520 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,492 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 246 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 256 persons per square kilometer. Shepparton - South East's 2.0% growth since census positioned it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.5%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 75.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth, placing Shepparton - South East in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas, was predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 8,962 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 51.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Shepparton - South East when compared nationally

Shepparton - South East has seen approximately 86 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 432 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 48 recorded approvals. Despite recent population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas. The average new home construction cost is $254,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

This year, $13.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Shepparton - South East records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 73rd percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed. New building activity consists of approximately 62% standalone homes and 38% medium and high-density housing, reflecting an increasing blend of attached housing types to cater to varying price ranges and lifestyle demands. Currently, there are around 170 people per dwelling approval in Shepparton - South East, indicating a low-density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the region is projected to add 8,589 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Shepparton - South East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 28 projects that are likely to impact the area significantly. These projects include the Shepparton South East Precinct Structure Plan, Kialla North Growth Corridor, Goulburn Valley Water Infrastructure Upgrades, and Wyndham Street 7-Eleven Convenience Store. The following list details those projects most relevant to the area's performance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Shepparton - South East are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Shepparton - South East has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 5.5% as of September 2025. The area's employment rate is 1.8% higher than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, but its workforce participation lags at 50.1% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Key industries for residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with a significant specialization in manufacturing (1.3 times the regional level). However, public administration & safety has lower representation at 3.9%, compared to the regional average of 6.5%. Many residents may commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the year ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 10.4% and employment declined by 12.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points.

This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7% and unemployment rose marginally. Statewide, VIC's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year (adding 41,950 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shepparton - South East's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data shows that Shepparton - South East SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $46,208 and an average income of $56,426 in financial year 2022. These figures are below the national averages of $48,741 and $60,693 for Rest of Vic. respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,827 (median) and $63,287 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Shepparton - South East fall between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.1% of residents earning $800-$1,499 weekly, differing from the broader area where the $1,500-$2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Shepparton - South East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Shepparton - South East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Shepparton - South East was 33.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.1% and rented ones at 38.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,166, while the median weekly rent figure was $270. Nationally, Shepparton - South East's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton - South East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 64.6% of all households, including 24.6% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households making up 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Shepparton - South East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high at 30.3%, comprising 11.3% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shepparton - South East has 118 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 33 distinct routes, facilitating 1,555 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average situated 286 meters from the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 222 trips across all routes, translating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shepparton - South East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Shepparton - South East, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% (around 8,089 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 9.8% of residents) and mental health issues (8.9%). About 65.1% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's 64.8%. As of a recent report (20XX-XX-XX), 19.4% of Shepparton - South East residents are aged 65 and over (3,269 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally reflecting the overall population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shepparton - South East was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton-South East has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.1% of its population born overseas and 31.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Shepparton-South East, comprising 44.3% of people, while Islam is overrepresented at 16.4%, substantially higher than the Rest of Vic average of 7.0%. The top three ancestry groups are English (23.7%), Australian (22.8%), and Other (18.4%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 10.3%. Notably, Italian ethnicity is overrepresented at 6.5% compared to the regional average of 6.0%, Macedonian at 0.7% versus 0.4%, and Samoan at 0.6% versus 0.4%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Shepparton - South East are English, comprising 23.7% of the population, Australian, comprising 22.8% of the population, and Other, comprising 18.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 10.3%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 6.5% of Shepparton - South East (vs 6.0% regionally), Macedonian at 0.7% (vs 0.4%) and Samoan at 0.6% (vs 0.4%).

Shepparton - South East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Shepparton-South East is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 17.2%, while those aged 65-74 are smaller at 9.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 15.2% to 17.2%, the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.9% to 12.9%, and the 15-24 cohort declined from 11.7% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts. The 25-34 age group is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 2,147 people (74%) from 2,898 to 5,046.