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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Nathalia has an estimated 1,941 residents, down from 1,982 at the 2021 Census — a change of 41 people, or 2.1%. Density is about 10 people per square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
In the suburb of Nathalia, demographic updates from the ABS combined with 36 validated new addresses identified by AreaSearch since the Census indicate an estimated resident population of around 1,941 as of Aug 2026. This represents a contraction of 41 people (2.1%) from the 1,982 people recorded in the 2021 Census, aligning with an estimated resident population count of 1,940 derived from the ABS ERP release in June 2025. Living space remains generous across the suburb of Nathalia, which maintains a low density of 10.2 persons per square kilometer. Inbound overseas migration has been the primary demographic catalyst, generating roughly 66.0% of recent population additions.
Longer-term demographic modelling for the suburb of Nathalia incorporates 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia SA2 figures (benchmarked to 2022) alongside 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections, using a weighted growth aggregation method from LGA to SA2 tiers, with age-cohort rates projected across 2032 to 2041. These combined models position the suburb of Nathalia within the upper quartile of regional Australian growth, anticipating an expansion of 655 persons to 2041, which equates to a 33.7% total rise over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
39 new dwellings have been approved in Nathalia over the past five years, an average of 7 a year. That is 4.9 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 9, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Statistical evaluations by AreaSearch indicate that residential building approvals in Nathalia average around 7 dwellings each year, totaling roughly 39 homes across the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), with 9 approved during FY-25 so far. Considering recent demographic decline, this supply level provides ample options for purchasers, with newly planned homes averaging an expected construction cost of $437,000. Commercial planning activity remains subdued, registering $1.7 million in commercial approvals throughout the current financial year. Per capita residential building volumes in Nathalia sit at roughly half the rate recorded across Rest of Vic., placing the locality in the 57th percentile nationwide.
Detached houses account for 78.0% of approved construction, while townhouses or apartments constitute 22.0%, reinforcing a spacious, family-oriented neighborhood profile with approximately 243 people per dwelling approval. According to the latest quarterly projections from AreaSearch, Nathalia is on track to gain 654 residents by 2041. Should residential construction continue at its existing pace, accommodation delivery could lag behind population expansion, potentially tightening market conditions and driving stronger capital appreciation.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Nathalia
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 69 current infrastructure and development projects close to Nathalia, worth an estimated $5.63 billion. 22 are already under construction and 23 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, sports & recreation and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Community performance and growth potential are heavily shaped by planning frameworks and capital works. Currently, AreaSearch has identified no active major projects expected to directly influence the immediate district. Wider strategic initiatives of note in the surrounding area encompass the Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, Regional Housing Fund, and North East Rail Line Upgrade.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Shepparton Bypass Stage 1
Planning has been undertaken for Shepparton Bypass Stage 1, a future road link from the Midland Highway in Mooroopna to the Goulburn Valley Highway in Shepparton North, including a second Goulburn River crossing between Shepparton and Mooroopna. The Big Build project page remains marked Planning and states the 2020 business case was provided to the Commonwealth. A Victorian Government Gazette notice in October 2025 varied the designated project area for the Shepparton Corridor Upgrade, helping protect land for the corridor.Greater Shepparton continues to advocate for road network resilience works after the loss of previous Commonwealth bypass funding.
Shepparton North Sub-Regional Activity Centre Structure Plan
Council-led structure plan and planning scheme amendment for the Shepparton North Activity Centre. The plan guides long-term redevelopment of land on both sides of Numurkah Road / Goulburn Valley Highway into an integrated sub-regional activity centre with two retail nodes, new commercial and mixed-use opportunities, improved pedestrian and vehicle connections, open space and parking. Council adopted the structure plan in March 2023 and adopted Amendment C245gshe in April 2024, but the amendment remains subject to Ministerial approval and related High Court proceedings as at May 2026.
The North Quarter Estate
Premium master-planned residential estate developed by URBAN Land Projects on a former orchard site in northern Shepparton. The estate spans multiple stages delivering generous lots (from approximately 348m2 to over 800m2), with Stage 1 (73 lots) and Stages 2, 3A and 4 now progressed. Stage 4 is actively selling with most lots sold. Key features include signalised estate entry off Verney Road, public open space, playground, wetlands, walking and cycling paths, and a Tesla Powerwall sustainability offer for purchasers.Located minutes from GV Health, Grahamvale Primary School, Shepparton Sports City precinct and the CBD.
The North Quarter Residential Estate
Premium residential land estate in North Shepparton developed by URBAN Land Projects with generous lot sizes (495m2 to 1200m2), extensive open spaces and close proximity to city centre, GV Health, schools and sporting precincts. Features Tesla Powerwall solar energy systems, community parklands, shared paths and wetlands. Stage 1 contains 73 residential lots with multiple stages planned. Master-planned community with strong connectivity to Shepparton city centre, GV Health, and sporting precincts.
Goulburn Valley Highway and Hawkins Street Intersection Upgrade
Signalised intersection upgrade at Goulburn Valley Highway and Hawkins Street including new traffic signals, dedicated turning lanes, road widening, pavement upgrades, improved pedestrian crossings, cycling access and safer U-turn movements. Design work is underway following funding commitments, with construction currently expected to commence in early 2027.
Yahna Gurtji Shared Path Extension
Extension of the Yahna Gurtji shared path to improve pedestrian and cycling connectivity in Shepparton.
GV Health Staff Accommodation Development
Construction of a new three-storey staff accommodation building at GV Health's Graham Street campus in Shepparton, featuring 18 self-contained units comprising 15 single-room flats and 3 double flats, with secure direct access to the hospital for staff on-call after hours. The energy efficient development includes solar power, heat pump hot water systems, LED lighting, double glazed windows, recycled glass and sustainably sourced timber. Funded through a $10.2 million grant under the Victorian Government's Regional Health Infrastructure Fund and delivered by the Victorian Health Building Authority in partnership with GV Health and builder Hansen Yuncken, the project aims to attract and retain healthcare professionals in the Goulburn Valley region.It is being delivered alongside a separate, adjoining 15-apartment (18-bedroom) development funded under the Regional Worker Accommodation Fund, bringing the combined total to 33 new apartments on the site.
Goulburn Valley Health - Shepparton Hospital Redevelopment
Major $229.3 million redevelopment of Shepparton Hospital featuring expanded emergency department with 44 treatment points, five-storey inpatient unit with 64 beds and 10 ICU beds, four operating theatres, 12-bed maternity unit, 10-cot special care nursery, 12-bed paediatric ward, 16-bed dialysis unit, imaging facilities including CT scan and X-ray rooms, new kitchen, and morgue. The project has doubled emergency department capacity and created an integrated women and children's precinct.
882 residents of Nathalia are employed, from a labour force of 918. Unemployment sits at 3.9%, with participation at 56.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.5% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 1,685, about 87% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local labour market in Nathalia features an even distribution of blue-collar and white-collar roles, supported by solid industrial and manufacturing activity, a low jobless rate of 3.9%, and an annual employment gain of 1.1% based on AreaSearch statistical aggregations. By March 2026, employed locals numbered 882, while the local unemployment rate stood 0.2% above the 3.7% benchmark in Regional Vic. Labour force participation reached 56.7%, trailing the 61.1% regional mark, with 12.9% of workers operating from home at the Census period amid potential Covid-19 lockdown influences. Leading fields of employment for local residents comprise health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and manufacturing.
Agricultural, forestry, and fishing enterprises are particularly prominent, capturing a workforce share 1.9 times higher than the regional average, whereas public administration & safety represents just 2.3% of employment relative to 6.5% across the broader region. Disparities between local Census worker counts and resident worker totals point to a relatively modest pool of internal employment options. Data from SALM and the ABS collated by AreaSearch reveals that over the twelve months to March 2026, Nathalia experienced a 1.1% gain in jobs alongside a 2.7% rise in the labour force, leading to a 1.5 percentage point increase in the jobless rate; across Regional Vic., jobs contracted by 0.1%, the workforce reduced by 0.3%, and unemployment eased by 0.2 percentage points. Forward-looking projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 suggest broader nationwide employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. When weighted against the local industry profile, Nathalia is modeled to see employment increases of 5.5% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though these figures serve illustrative purposes and omit localized population adjustments.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Nathalia is $1,169 a week (about $61,000 a year), with median personal income at $628 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $44,507 a year against an average of $50,940. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO records synthesized by AreaSearch indicate that earnings in the suburb of Nathalia track beneath nationwide standards for financial year 2023. Taxpayers in the suburb of Nathalia recorded a median income of $44,507 and an average income of $50,940, trailing the respective figures of $50,954 and $62,728 recorded across Regional Vic.. Factoring in a Wage Price Index expansion of 9.62% from financial year 2023 yields updated estimates of roughly $48,789 for median earnings and $55,840 for average earnings by March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census shows local household, family, and individual remuneration ranks within the 11th to 15th percentiles nationally, with the $400 - 799 weekly income bracket housing 27.3% of individuals (529 people), in contrast to wider regional patterns where 30.3% earn between $1,500 - 2,999.
Although residents preserve 89.8% of their income after accommodation outlays, overall disposable funds place at the 17th percentile across the country.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Nathalia had 812 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 92% detached houses and 0% apartments. 32% are owned with a mortgage, 19% rented and 49% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $194 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,100 a month. Rent absorbs 16.6% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.7%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to Census findings, standalone houses make up 92.2% of the local dwelling stock, while semi-detached homes, units, and alternative formats account for 7.8%, compared to 90.1% and 9.9% across Regional Vic.. Fully owned properties represent 48.6% of residences, outstripping regional ownership levels, while mortgaged homes comprise 32.2% and rental accommodation constitutes 19.2%. Monthly mortgage commitments average a median of $1,100, well beneath the Regional Vic. benchmark of $1,430 and the national norm of $1,863. Median weekly rents are recorded at $194, tracking noticeably below the $285 regional standard and the $375 Australian median.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Nathalia counted 812 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.3 people each. 22% are couples with children, fewer than in 79% of areas nationally, against 26% couples without children. 36% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.2 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute 60.3% of local households, consisting of couples without offspring (25.7%), couples with children (22.4%), and single parents (10.8%). Single-person living arrangements represent 36.1% of households and shared living accounts for 2.7%, bringing total non-family households to 39.7%. The typical household size stands at 2.3 people, slightly under the Regional Vic. standard of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
14.5% of adults in Nathalia hold a university qualification, including 10.6% with a bachelor degree and 1.8% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.5% hold a vocational qualification. 5 schools serve the area, with 966 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 975 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary educational attainment in the district presents a key area for development, with higher education degrees held by 14.5% of locals against the Victorian benchmark of 33.4%. Within this group, bachelor degrees account for 10.6%, graduate diplomas represent 2.1%, and postgraduate credentials make up 1.8%. Vocational and technical qualifications are widespread, with 39.0% of individuals aged 15+ holding practical credentials, including 9.5% with advanced diplomas and 29.5% possessing certificates. Formal study engagement is substantial, with 26.0% of the community actively participating in educational courses. Primary school pupils represent 9.2% of the population, secondary school attendees account for 9.1%, and tertiary students comprise 1.6%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Nathalia means driving: households keep an average of 1.6 vehicles, and scheduled services reach only a handful of stops. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit infrastructure within Nathalia consists of 2 operational stops connected to 1 bus route, providing 13 scheduled passenger trips each week. With the typical resident located 586 meters from the closest stop, overall transit accessibility is moderate. Outward commuting relies primarily on private vehicles for 87% of trips, while walking represents 9% and cycling accounts for 3%. Households maintain an average of 1.6 motor vehicles, with 12.9% of workers working from home according to the 2021 Census under possible pandemic conditions. Bus services run at a frequency of 1 trip per day across the network, delivering roughly 6 departures per stop each week.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
56.3% of residents in Nathalia report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 89% of areas nationally. 8.5% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.1% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.6 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Mortality and chronic illness indicators compiled by AreaSearch highlight significant wellness hurdles in Nathalia across various age brackets, alongside an exceptionally low private health insurance uptake of approximately 47% (~913 people). This contrasts with coverage rates of 50.5% in Regional Vic. and 55.7% across Australia. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent ailments locally, diagnosed in 13.1% and 9.9% of residents, while 56.3% of the community reported no ongoing health conditions compared to 63.4% regionally. Elevated rates of chronic illness affect the working-age demographic, while older citizens aged 65 and over comprise 28.8% of the populace (559 people), surpassing the 24.0% regional proportion.
Health metrics among older locals present ongoing challenges, generally mirroring broader national trends.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Nathalia is largely Australian-born, at 93.1% of residents, with 1.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (33.7%) and English (33.6%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural homogeneity is prominent in Nathalia, where 91.5% of residents hold Australian citizenship, 93.1% were born domestically, and 98.1% speak exclusively English at home. Christian denominations represent the predominant religious affiliation at 55.4%, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic.. Regarding ancestral heritage, the leading identified backgrounds are Australian (33.7%), English (33.6%), and Irish (11.1%). Other cultural backgrounds include Scottish at 8.6% (compared to 8.8% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 2.6% (against 1.4% regionally), and Dutch at 1.3% (versus 1.7% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Nathalia is 47, older than 85% of areas nationally. 20.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The demographic structure in Nathalia reflects an older population than Regional Vic., with seniors aged 65+ accounting for 28.8% of the community as at August 2026 compared to 24.0% across the region, while persons aged 25 - 44 make up 19.5% versus 23.1% regionally. As at August 2026, the estimated median age remains unchanged from the 2021 Census at 47, exceeding the regional median of 43 and the national Census figure of 38. Residents aged 45 - 64 have decreased from 26.6% to an estimated 23.4% since the Census. Young to middle-aged adults are projected to show the strongest future addition, increasing by 228 (60%) to reach 606 by 2041.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Nathalia
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 5 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 36 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (1,982 at the 2021 Census → 1,941 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL21898). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.