Nathalia

Population growth drivers in Nathalia are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Nathalia's broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the 2021 Census, Nathalia's estimated population as of November 2025 is around 1,938. This reflects a decrease of 44 people (2.2%) compared to the 2021 Census figure of 1,982. The current population estimate of 1,916 by AreaSearch, following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates a density ratio of 10.2 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb of Nathalia is forecasted to expand by 669 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 36.8% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Nathalia, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Nathalia experienced around 8 dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling approximately 43 homes. In FY-26 so far, 3 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 new residents arrived per new home each year during this period.

New dwelling supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of these dwellings was $442,000. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Nathalia had around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person as of FY-25, placing it among the 41st percentile nationally in terms of buyer choices for new dwellings. This limited supply supports demand for existing dwellings.

Recent construction comprised 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 92.0% houses. This change may indicate diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Nathalia is 397 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Nathalia is expected to grow by 714 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Nathalia has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch that may affect this area. Major initiatives include the Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and North East Rail Line Upgrade. These are among the most relevant projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.0%, Nathalia has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Nathalia's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. Its unemployment rate was 3.0% as of June 2025, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation was 55.4%, slightly below Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had notable concentration with levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Public administration & safety had limited presence at 2.3%, compared to the regional 6.5%.

Local employment opportunities appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over June 2024 to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 14.7% and employment declined by 15.9%, causing unemployment rate rise by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand in Nathalia. Five-year projections estimate a 5.5% increase, while ten-year projections estimate a 12.2% increase in local employment (based on simple weighting extrapolation).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that Nathalia's median income is $44,507 and the average income is $50,940. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $48,741 and the average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, current estimates for Nathalia would be approximately $49,919 (median) and $57,134 (average). The 2021 Census shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Nathalia all fall between the 11th and 15th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the largest segment comprises 27.3% earning $400 - $799 weekly (529 residents), differing from patterns across the region where $1,500 - $2,999 dominates with 30.3%. Housing costs are modest in Nathalia, with 89.8% of income retained, but the total disposable income ranks at just the 17th percentile nationally.

Nathalia is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Nathalia's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.2% houses and 7.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic had 90.8% houses and 9.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nathalia was at 48.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.2% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,100, lower than Non-Metro Vic's average of $1,300. Weekly rent in Nathalia was recorded at $194, compared to Non-Metro Vic's $250. Nationally, Nathalia's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Nathalia features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 60.3% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 10.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 39.7%, with lone person households at 36.1% and group households making up 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, aligning with the Rest of Vic. average.

Educational outcomes in Nathalia fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high at 26.0%, with 9.2% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 1.6% in tertiary education.

Nathalia has 5 schools with a combined enrollment of 966 students, offering balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 975). The educational mix includes 2 primary, 2 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. As an education hub, the area has 49.9 school places per 100 residents, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nathalia has two active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of bus routes, with three individual routes in total providing 19 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of the transport system is rated as moderate, with residents typically located approximately 586 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to two trips per day, resulting in about nine weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Nathalia is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Nathalia faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47%, covering around 912 individuals, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.1% of residents) and asthma (9.9%). A total of 56.3% of residents reported having no medical ailments, lower than the Rest of Vic's figure of 60.0%. As of a certain date, 27.1% of Nathalia's population is aged 65 and over, comprising around 525 individuals. The health outcomes among seniors largely mirror those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Nathalia placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Nathalia's population showed low cultural diversity, with 91.5% citizens, 93.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 55.4%, close to the Rest of Vic's 56.1%. Ancestry wise, Australian (33.7%), English (33.6%), and Irish (11.1%) were most prevalent.

Notably, Scottish (8.6% vs 8.3%), Dutch (1.3% vs 1.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (2.6% vs 1.5%) groups had higher representation in Nathalia compared to regional averages.

Nathalia hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Nathalia's median age at 47 years is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic average of 43 and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 14.4% of the population, while the 45-54 group comprises 8.6%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.0% to 8.9% of the population, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 8.6%. By 2041, Nathalia is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 35 to 44 group is projected to grow by 71%, reaching 344 people from 201, while the 55 to 64 cohort is expected to decline by 2 people.