Nathalia

Population growth drivers in Nathalia are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the Nathalia statistical area's population was estimated at around 1,942 as of Nov 2025. This shows a decrease of 40 people (2.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,982. The current estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population figure of 1,917, based on latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, and additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 10.2 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For uncovered areas, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Nathalia (SA2) is forecasted to increase by 668 persons, reflecting a 36.5% total increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Nathalia according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Nathalia has experienced approximately 9 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 47 homes. In FY26 so far, there have been 3 recorded approvals. On average, about 0.3 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY21 and FY25. This suggests that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of these dwellings is approximately $442,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In Nathalia, around $1.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Nathalia has roughly half the building activity per person but ranks among the 86th percentile nationally for construction activity. Recent construction comprises approximately 67% detached houses and 33% attached dwellings, with an increasing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

Nathalia currently has around 104 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Nathalia is forecasted to gain approximately 709 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Nathalia has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Major projects include the Shepparton Line Upgrade, Edward River Growth Strategy 2050, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), and North East Rail Line Upgrade. The following details those expected to have the most significance.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, Nathalia has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Nathalia has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025877 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is slightly below the state average at 55.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors in Nathalia include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing stand out with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

Public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 2.3% of Nathalia's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%. The area may have limited local job opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 10.6%, and employment declined by 12.5%, leading to a 2.1 percentage point increase in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13%, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Nathalia's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.5% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for local population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Nathalia's median income is $44,507 and average income is $50,940. This is lower than national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) in Rest of Vic. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,179 (median) and $55,143 (average), based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Nathalia's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 11th and 15th percentiles nationally. In Nathalia, 27.3% of the population earns $400 - $799, unlike surrounding regions where earnings predominantly fall within $1,500 - $2,999. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 89.8% income retention, total disposable income ranks at only the 17th percentile nationally.

Nathalia is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Nathalia, as per the latest Census data, 92.2% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 7.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 90.8% houses and 9.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nathalia stood at 48.6%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged properties at 32.2% and rented ones at 19.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,100, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Weekly rent in Nathalia was recorded at $194, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Nathalia's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Nathalia features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 60.3% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 10.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.7%, with lone person households at 36.1% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Nathalia fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 14.5%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (29.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 1.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nathalia has two active public transport stops operating, both offering bus services. These stops are served by one route collectively providing ten weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated moderate, with residents located an average of 586 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages one trip per day across all routes, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nathalia is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Nathalia faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47%, covering around 914 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.1% of residents) and asthma (9.9%). A total of 56.3% reported no medical ailments, compared to 60.0% in the rest of Victoria. As of a recent report (24th April 20XX), 27.1% of Nathalia's population is aged 65 and over, comprising 526 individuals. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Nathalia placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Nathalia had a population that was predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 91.5% being citizens, 93.1% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, practised by 55.4%. This figure is similar to the regional average of 56.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (33.7%), English (33.6%), and Irish (11.1%). Notably, Scottish ancestry was slightly higher in Nathalia at 8.6% compared to the regional average of 8.3%. Dutch ancestry was also marginally higher at 1.3%, while Australian Aboriginal ancestry was notably higher at 2.6% compared to the regional average of 1.5%.

Nathalia hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Nathalia's median age is 47 years, significantly higher than the Rest of Vic average of 43 and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, comprising 14.4% of the population, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 8.6%, compared to Rest of Vic. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and now, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.0% to 8.9% of the population, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 8.6%. By 2041, Nathalia's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 35 to 44 group is projected to grow by 70%, reaching 343 people from 201, while the 55 to 64 cohort is expected to decline by 3 people.