Shepparton Surrounds - West

Shepparton Surrounds - West has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Shepparton Surrounds - West's population is around 10,970 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 624 people (6.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,346 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,407 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 326 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 10.7 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Shepparton Surrounds - West's 6.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.7%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 51.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of Australia's regional areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 4,837 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 39.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Shepparton Surrounds - West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Shepparton Surrounds - West has averaged around 55 new dwelling approvals annually, with 275 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 87 so far in FY-26. Given an average of only 0.2 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $325,000. Additionally, $28.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Shepparton Surrounds - West has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 72nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 186 people per dwelling approval, Shepparton Surrounds - West shows characteristics of a low-density area.

Population forecasts indicate Shepparton Surrounds - West will gain 4,274 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Shepparton Surrounds - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 29 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Silkwater Plains Estate, Margaret Street Stormwater Pump Station Upgrade, Northlinks Estate Tatura, and Tatura Skate Park, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Shepparton Surrounds - West shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Shepparton Surrounds - West possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, and an unemployment rate of just 2.1%. As of December 2025, 5,220 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.6% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is on par with Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 17.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. The area shows particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 2.4 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 14.1% versus the regional average of 16.8%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 5.0% while employment declined by 5.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This compares to Regional Vic., where employment fell by 0.6%, labour force contracted by 0.7%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Shepparton Surrounds - West. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shepparton Surrounds - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Shepparton Surrounds - West SA2's median income among taxpayers is $48,121, with an average of $56,543. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,091 (median) and $61,208 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Shepparton Surrounds - West, between the 26th and 28th percentiles. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 30.8% of locals (3,378 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 88.6% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 33rd percentile.

Shepparton Surrounds - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Shepparton Surrounds - West, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 93.5% houses and 6.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Shepparton Surrounds - West was higher than that of Regional Vic., at 43.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (36.9%) or rented (19.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional Vic. average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $240, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Shepparton Surrounds - West's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shepparton Surrounds - West has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 70.5% of all households, comprising 29.5% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional Vic. average.

Educational outcomes in Shepparton Surrounds - West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.5%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (27.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 10 active transport stops operating within Shepparton Surrounds - West, comprising a mix of train. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 118 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1097 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 17.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 16 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Shepparton Surrounds - West are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Shepparton Surrounds - West, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,210 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.8 and 8.9% of residents, respectively, while 63.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 20.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,280 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Shepparton Surrounds - West ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shepparton Surrounds - West was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.4% of its population being citizens, 88.7% born in Australia, and 92.0% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Shepparton Surrounds - West is Christianity, which makes up 52.5% of the population. This compares to 47.3% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Shepparton Surrounds - West are Australian, comprising 30.7% of the population, English, comprising 30.3% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 6.8% of Shepparton Surrounds - West (vs 2.9% regionally), Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.7%) and Scottish at 7.8% (vs 8.8%).

Shepparton Surrounds - West hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Shepparton Surrounds - West's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional Vic., Shepparton Surrounds - West has a higher concentration of 55 - 64 residents (14.2%) but fewer 75 - 84 year-olds (6.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.8% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.0% to 11.3%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.1% to 12.3%. By 2041, Shepparton Surrounds - West is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 63% (809 people), reaching 2,089 from 1,279. The 55 to 64 group displays more modest growth at 7%, adding only 113 residents.