Rochester (Vic.)

Rochester is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the suburb of Rochester (Vic.) is around 2,847 people. This figure reflects a decrease of 307 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,154 people. The latest estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the ABS ERP data release from June 2024, which showed an estimated resident population of 2,838 for surrounding areas applied to Rochester by AreaSearch. This level of population results in a density ratio of 33 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver of population growth in the area has been overseas migration.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by ABS data. These projections indicate an expected population increase just below the median of regional areas across Australia by 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Rochester (Vic.) is expected to increase its population by 320 persons by the year 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Rochester is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Rochester averaged approximately 5 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 25 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 4 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction value for new properties is $507,000. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Rochester shows significantly reduced construction activity, at 56.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though building activity has increased in recent years. Nationally, this is also below average, suggesting possible planning constraints. All new constructions have been detached houses, preserving Rochester's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 367 people. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Rochester is expected to grow by 378 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Rochester has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Key projects include Bendigo and Echuca Line Upgrade, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Water and Sewer Network Program, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). The following list details those most likely to be relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Rochester has been broadly consistent with national averages

Rochester has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, notably in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.3%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 1,181 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation in Rochester is 47.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing stands out with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Public administration & safety, however, is lower at 2.7% compared to the regional average of 6.5%. The area may have limited local job opportunities, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, labour force decreased by 14.9%, employment fell by 15.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points in Rochester. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment fall by 0.9%, labour force contract by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rochester's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 5.7% in five years and 12.6% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data shows Rochester had a median taxpayer income of $43,274 and an average income of $49,513 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national averages of $48,741 and $60,693 for Rest of Vic respectively. Based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest median income to be approximately $48,536 and average income to be around $55,534 as of September 2025. The 2021 Census indicates that incomes in Rochester fall between the 6th and 10th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis reveals that 30.5% of Rochester's population (868 individuals) have incomes ranging from $400 to $799, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. While housing costs are modest, allowing for 89.3% of income to be retained, total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Rochester is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rochester's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 92.4% houses and 7.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structures were 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rochester was 51.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.2% and rented dwellings at 20.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Rochester was $1,083, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent figure in Rochester was $220, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Rochester's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Rochester features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.2% of all households, including 19.0% couples with children, 32.9% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Rochester faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (28.4%). A total of 23.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 9.4% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

Rochester's three schools have a combined enrollment of 572 students and offer typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 973), providing balanced educational opportunities. The area has two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups, with school capacity exceeding residential needs at 20.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.3, indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rochester has 23 active public transport stops. These include both train and bus services. There are 13 different routes operating in total.

Collectively, these routes provide 148 weekly passenger trips. The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 219 meters. On average, there are 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop. Transport accessibility is rated as good.

Health performance in Rochester is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rochester faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% (around 1,324 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.6% of residents) and mental health issues (9.9%). However, 56.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.2% in the rest of Victoria. Rochester has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 33.2% (around 945 people), than the state average of 25.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are better than those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Rochester placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rochester, as per the census conducted on 9 June 2006, had a cultural diversity index of 58.7, indicating below average diversity. The population was predominantly Australian-born, with 93.8% having been born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 97.7% of residents.

Christianity was the primary religion, practiced by 53.9% of people, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's 53.0%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (35.0%), English (34.7%), and Irish (10.0%) were the top three groups. Some ethnicities had notable representation: Scottish at 8.7%, Sri Lankan at 0.2%, and Macedonian at 0.1%.

Rochester ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rochester's median age is 53, considerably higher than Victoria's figure of 43 and substantially exceeding Australia's norm of 38. Compared to Victoria's average, Rochester has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.4%). This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the age group 65 to 74 has grown from 15.2% to 16.3%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 8.4% to 9.5%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has declined from 9.6% to 8.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Rochester's age structure. The 25 to 34 group is expected to grow by 46%, reaching 308 people from 210. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.