Rochester (Vic.)

Rochester is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Rochester Vic. (SA2) has an estimated population of around 2923, reflecting a decrease of 231 people (7.3%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3154. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2831 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024, and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 33 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation method for areas not covered by ABS data. Considering these projections, the Rochester Vic. (SA2) is expected to increase by around 318 persons to reach a total population of approximately 3241 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of about 10.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Rochester is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Rochester has averaged approximately 4 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 21 homes. As of FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $507,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year, $2.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Rochester has significantly less development activity, at 64.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although development activity has increased recently. The area is also under the national average in terms of development activity, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent development has been entirely standalone homes, maintaining Rochester's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 452 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Rochester adding 300 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Rochester has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Bendigo and Echuca Line Upgrade, Shepparton Line Upgrade, Water and Sewer Network Program, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). The following list outlines those anticipated to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.8%, Rochester has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Rochester has a diverse workforce with both white and blue-collar jobs, prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors, and an unemployment rate of 2.8%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, 1,191 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Rochester lags behind at 47.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and manufacturing. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Public administration & safety, however, is under-represented at 2.7% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 6.5%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 11.3%, and employment fell by 12.6%, leading to a 1.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate compared to Rest of Vic.'s marginal increase. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rochester's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Rochester's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $43,274. The average income stood at $49,513 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $46,844 (median) and $53,598 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Rochester all fall between the 6th and 10th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that the $400 - 799 bracket dominates with 30.5% of residents (891 people), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 89.3% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Rochester is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rochester's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 92.4% houses and 7.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structures were 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rochester stood at 51.9%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.2%) or rented (20.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Rochester was $1,083, significantly lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300 and the national figure of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Rochester was recorded at $220, substantially below Non-Metro Vic.'s $250 and the national average of $375.

Rochester features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.2% of all households, including 19.0% couples with children, 32.9% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 33.8% and group households making up 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Rochester faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (28.4%). A total of 23.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 9.4% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.7% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 23 active stops operating in Rochester, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 5 routes, collectively providing 92 weekly trips for passengers. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 219 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 13 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rochester is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rochester faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~1,359 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.6%) and mental health issues (9.9%). Conversely, 56.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.2% in Rest of Vic.. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.2% (970 people), compared to the Rest of Vic.'s 25.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges despite performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Rochester placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rochester has a cultural diversity index of 53, indicating below average diversity. As of the 2016 Census, 91.2% of its population were Australian citizens, with 93.8% born in Australia and 97.7% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 53.9% of Rochester's population, compared to 53.0% across Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (35.0%), English (34.7%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, Scottish ancestry is slightly overrepresented at 8.7%, Sri Lankan at 0.2%, and Macedonian at 0.1%.

Rochester ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rochester's median age is 53, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic.'s figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Rochester has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.4%). This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is notably above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the percentage of Rochester's population in the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 15.2% to 16.3%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 8.4% to 9.5%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has decreased from 9.6% to 8.7%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Rochester's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 42%, reaching 308 people from its current total of 216. Meanwhile, the 75 to 84 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.