Junortoun

Junortoun lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, Junortoun's population is estimated at around 4,762, reflecting an increase of 900 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,862. This growth represents a 23.3% increase and is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 4,068 residents following examination of ABS's ERP data release in June 2024, along with an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. Junortoun's population density is 222 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth exceeded the SA4 region (8.0%) and Rest of Vic., marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains, with other drivers also being positive factors. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 and adjusts them using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Junortoun is projected to increase by 2,270 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 33.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Junortoun among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Junortoun averaged approximately 25 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 125 homes. As of June 2026, 16 approvals have been recorded. This averages to around five people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $464,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

Commercial approvals totalled $1.2 million in FY-26, reflecting the area's residential nature. All new construction has comprised detached houses, preserving Junortoun's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

With approximately 140 people per approval, Junortoun is developing rapidly. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Junortoun will gain around 1,576 residents by 2041, indicating development keeps pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Junortoun has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. Seven projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the region. Notable ones are Forest Ridge Estate, Rangelea Rise, McIvor Heights, and Mercy Junortoun Sporting Precinct. The following details these projects, focusing on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Junortoun rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Junortoun has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors being well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%. As of December 2025, 2,060 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.4% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was at 63.9%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, 20.3% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Health care & social assistance had employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 0.7% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%.

Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 1.8%, and labour force increased by 1.8%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Junortoun's employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The suburb of Junortoun had a lower than average national income level based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $51,319 and the average income stood at $61,747. These figures compared to Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728 respectively. With a Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,553 for median income and $66,841 for average income as of September 2025. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021, Junortoun's household income ranked at the 76th percentile ($2,170 weekly) while personal income was at the 58th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 30.3% of the community (1,442 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.3% in the same category. A substantial proportion of high earners, at 33.0%, indicated strong economic capacity throughout the suburb. After housing costs, residents retained 88.1% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Junortoun is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Junortoun's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.3% houses and 0.7% other dwellings. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Junortoun stood at 42.0%, mirroring Regional Vic.'s rate, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.9% and rented ones at 5.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Junortoun was $380, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Junortoun's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Junortoun features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 42.7% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 6.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 17.3% and group households comprising 0.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Junortoun demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.3%, higher than the Rest of Vic average of 21.7% and the SA4 region's 25.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 22.1%. Educational participation is high, with 31.3% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.0% in primary, 10.4% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Junortoun has 15 active public transport stops. Two routes service these stops, offering a total of 114 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically living 568 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars are the dominant mode of transport at 98%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 20.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 16 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Junortoun is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Junortoun shows better-than-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among its general population but closer to national averages for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 51% (~2,441 people) of the total population having it. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.3%) and mental health issues (8.3%), while 68.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Under-65s in Junortoun have better-than-average health outcomes. The area has 21.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,038 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic.. While health outcomes among seniors are above average, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Junortoun is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Junortoun was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 90.9% of its population born in Australia, 93.9% being citizens, and 95.5% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Junortoun is Christianity, accounting for 56.1% of the population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.4%), English (31.3%), and Irish (12.1%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry is overrepresented at 9.4%, Hungarian at 0.3%, and New Zealand at 0.7%, compared to regional averages of 8.8%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively.

Junortoun hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Junortoun has a median age of 43, which is equal to the Regional Vic. figure and higher than the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 45-54 are notably prominent at 14.4%, while the 25-34 group stands at 7.0%, lower than the Regional Vic. figure. According to the 2021 Census, Junortoun's population aged 15-24 has increased from 11.2% to 12.2%. Conversely, the age group of 5-14 has decreased from 16.1% to 14.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Junortoun's age structure, with the 45-54 group expected to grow by 46%, reaching 1,001 people from its current figure of 685.