Junortoun

Junortoun lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Analysis of ABS population updates for the wider region, alongside new address files validated by AreaSearch since the Census, indicates the population of the suburb of Junortoun is approximately 3,678 as of May 2026. This represents a decline of 184 residents (4.8%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 3,862 residents. This shift is calculated from the resident population of 3,678, estimated by AreaSearch using the latest ERP data release from the ABS (June 2025) plus an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population size results in a density ratio of 171 persons per square kilometer, offering ample room per person and potential scope for future development. Over the last ten years, the suburb of Junortoun has shown steady expansion with a 1.9% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA4 region. Growth in the suburb of Junortoun was mainly driven by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 64.0% of total gains during recent periods, although all factors including natural growth and overseas migration were positive contributors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, published in 2024 with 2022 as the baseline year. For SA2 areas without this data, AreaSearch utilizes the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them via a weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age bracket from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing the suburb of Junortoun in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas, is anticipated over the period, with the suburb of Junortoun projected to grow by 1,700 residents to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, representing an overall increase of 46.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Junortoun, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

According to AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Junortoun has recorded approximately 19 new home approvals annually, with an estimated 97 homes approved during the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 5 so far in FY-26. Because the population has decreased recently, the supply of housing has remained sufficient to meet demand, creating a balanced market with good opportunities for buyers, while new dwellings are built at an average value of $464,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium sector with high-quality projects. Furthermore, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered during this financial year, highlighting the residential focus of the locality.

In recent times, new development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the low-density character of the area with a focus on detached dwellings that appeal to buyers seeking space. The estimated ratio of 390 people in the area for every dwelling approval highlights its quiet, low-intensity development landscape.

Future forecasts indicate Junortoun will add 1,700 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current building rates do not change, housing supply could fall behind population growth, which is likely to increase buyer competition and support price appreciation.

Junortoun has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning initiatives, and major developments are primary drivers of area performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 7 projects that are expected to influence the locality. Key developments include Forest Ridge Estate, Rangelea Rise, McIvor Heights, and Mercy Junortoun Sporting Precinct, with the list below detailing the most significant initiatives.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Junortoun ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Junortoun has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of only 1.2%, according to AreaSearch calculations from statistical area data. As of March 2026, 1,715 residents are employed, which is an unemployment rate 2.5% lower than the Regional Vic. average of 3.7%, while workforce participation is slightly below average (59.1% compared to 61.1% in Regional Vic.). Census data indicates that a moderate 20.3% of residents worked from home, although the influence of Covid-19 restrictions should be kept in mind.

Local employment is heavily focused in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area displays a strong employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with its share of employment standing at 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing accounts for only 0.7% of local workers, which is below the 7.5% average for Regional Vic. This mainly residential locality appears to provide few local job opportunities, as shown by the comparison of Census working population to resident population.

According to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas, during the year ending March 2026, the local workforce shrank by 3.6% alongside a 3.4% drop in employment, leading to a decline in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. Over the same timeframe, Regional Vic. saw employment fall by 0.1% and the labor force contract by 0.3%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point decline. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia published in May-25 offer additional context on future demand trends within Junortoun. These projections, spanning five and ten-year intervals, have been applied to the local employment structure to estimate future patterns. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary widely by industry. Applying these industry projections to Junortoun's employment distribution suggests local employment will rise by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for illustration and does not incorporate local population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Taxpayer income in the suburb of Junortoun is lower than the national average according to the latest ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in the suburb of Junortoun is $51,319, while the average income is $61,747, compared to Regional Vic. levels of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Incorporating Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $56,256 (median) and $67,687 (average) as of March 2026. Based on 2021 Census data, household income sits at the 76th percentile ($2,170 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 58th percentile. In terms of income brackets, the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly band contains 30.3% of the community (1,114 individuals), matching the surrounding region where 30.3% are also in this range. The high percentage of top earners (33.0% earning more than $3,000/week) demonstrates substantial financial resources in the suburb. After housing expenses are met, residents keep 88.1% of their income, indicating strong spending power, and the area ranks in the 7th decile on the SEIFA income index.

Junortoun is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling types in Junortoun at the time of the latest Census consisted of 99.3% houses and 0.7% other dwellings (semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative housing types), compared to Regional Vic.'s profile of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Junortoun was identical to that of Regional Vic. at 42.0%, with the remaining properties being purchased with a mortgage (52.9%) or rented (5.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was significantly higher than the Regional Vic. average at $1,950, while the median weekly rent was $380, compared to Regional Vic. figures of $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Junortoun's mortgage payments exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are above the national average of $375.

Junortoun features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up the vast majority of households at 81.9%, consisting of 42.7% couples with children, 32.5% couples without children, and 6.2% single parent households. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.1%, with single person households at 17.3% and group households representing 0.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Junortoun demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The educational profile of this locality is highly distinctive within the region, with university qualification rates (30.3% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Rest of Vic. average of 21.7% and the SA4 regional average (25.4%), demonstrating a strong focus on tertiary education. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 20.9%, followed by postgraduate degrees (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational and technical skills are also common, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (22.1%).

Enrollment rates in education are high, with 31.3% of residents currently undertaking formal study. This comprises 12.0% in primary school, 10.4% in high school, and 3.3% in higher education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis identifies 15 active stops within Junortoun. These stops are served by 2 separate routes, providing a total of 114 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is classified as moderate, with residents living an average of 568 meters from their nearest stop. Because this is a residential suburb, the majority of workers commute to other areas, with private vehicles remaining the primary transport mode at 98%. Average vehicle ownership is 2.0 per household, exceeding the regional average. Additionally, 20.3% of residents work from home, based on 2021 Census figures, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

The average service frequency is 16 daily trips across all routes, which translates to roughly 7 weekly trips per transport stop.

The level of general health in Junortoun is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Junortoun displays favorable health statistics based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and the prevalence of chronic illnesses, with common conditions showing low frequency in the general population and aligning closely with national averages among older, high-risk groups, while private health insurance coverage is relatively low at roughly 51% of the population (~1,886 people).

The most prevalent health conditions recorded locally were arthritis and mental health conditions, affecting 9.3 and 8.3% of residents, respectively, while 68.2% of the population reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Residents under the age of 65 experience better than average health outcomes. The locality has 22.8% of its population aged 65 and over (838 people), which is lower than the Regional Vic. proportion of 23.9%. Health outcomes for older residents are above average, although they rank lower nationally than the broader local population.

Junortoun is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Junortoun exhibits a lower level of cultural diversity than average, with 90.9% of residents born in Australia, 93.9% holding citizenship, and 95.5% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 56.1% of the population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic.

In terms of family heritage (parents' birth countries), the three most common backgrounds in Junortoun are Australian at 31.4% of the population, English at 31.3%, and Irish at 12.1%. There are also notable differences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Scottish ancestry is higher at 9.4% (compared to 8.8% regionally), Hungarian is at 0.3% (compared to 0.2%), and New Zealand heritage is at 0.7% (compared to 0.4%).

Junortoun hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

With a median age of 43, Junortoun matches the Regional Vic. median of 43 and sits significantly above the national average of 38. The age distribution shows that the 5 - 14 age group is highly represented (14.9%), while the 25 - 34 bracket is smaller (6.0%) than in Regional Vic. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 cohort has expanded from 7.6% to 9.4% of the population, and the 15 to 24 group increased from 11.2% to 12.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has fallen from 16.1% to 14.9%, and the 55 to 64 group decreased from 11.4% to 10.2%. Projections for 2041 suggest notable shifts in Junortoun's age profile, led by the 45 to 54 cohort, which is expected to expand by 59% (312 people), increasing from 529 to 842.