Long Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Long Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Long Gully is around 3,274, reflecting a decrease of 146 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,420. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,271 based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 940 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth in Long Gully. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Long Gully is expected to experience above median population growth in Australian non-metropolitan areas, expanding by 473 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.1% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Long Gully is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Long Gully has experienced approximately 4 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 20 homes. As of FY-26, no approvals have been recorded yet. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with varied buyer choices. The average construction cost value for new homes is $461,000.

In the current financial year, commercial development approvals amounting to $34.1 million have been recorded, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Long Gully has significantly lower building activity, at 84.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new properties typically drives demand and prices for existing ones. Activity is also below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the current 92.0% houses indicates decreasing developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 953 people, reflecting Long Gully's quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 526 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Long Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can be significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified four projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Bendigo Stadium and Showgrounds Redevelopment, the Water and Sewer Network Program, the Regional Sports Infrastructure Program - Bendigo, and the La Trobe University Bendigo Campus Transformation. The following list provides details on those most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Long Gully face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Long Gully's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate, as of June 2025, stands at 10.1% based on AreaSearch aggregated statistical area data.

In June 2025, 1,250 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 6.4% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Long Gully lags at 47.0%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Dominant employment sectors among Long Gully residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Health care & social assistance is particularly notable, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.5% of Long Gully's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident, as recorded in the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force increased by 1.2% while employment decreased by 1.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.2 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9%, a labour force decline of 0.4%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Long Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Long Gully's median income among taxpayers was $38,218 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $49,989 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of Vic.'s median and average incomes of $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $42,865 (median) and $56,068 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Long Gully all fall between the 3rd and 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.9% of residents (978 people) earn within the $800 - 1,499 bracket, differing from broader area patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Long Gully, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Long Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Long Gully, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.8% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Long Gully was at 28.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (26.9%) or rented (44.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,117, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,408. The median weekly rent figure was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $295. Nationally, Long Gully's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Long Gully features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 21.2% couples without children, and 19.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households accounting for 4.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Long Gully fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas, each at 2.4%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.9% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

St Peter's School serves Long Gully with an enrollment of 135 students. The area has balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 951), focusing exclusively on primary education but offering secondary options nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 4.1 places per 100 residents, compared to the regional average of 17.9, leading many families to seek schooling in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Long Gully shows that there are currently 15 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 3 individual routes providing service. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 636.

Residents have good accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 273 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency is high, with an average of 90 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Long Gully is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Long Gully, with various health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 1,528 people), compared to 50.5% across the rest of Victoria. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 14.6% of residents, followed by arthritis at 11.0%. Conversely, 54.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.0% across the rest of Victoria. The area has 19.0% of residents aged 65 and over (622 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Long Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Long Gully had a cultural diversity index below average, with 85.2% citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 92.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 37.7%. Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 3.6%, compared to 1.4% regionally.

For ancestry, the top groups were Australian (31.2%), English (30.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Notably, Dutch (1.4%) and Australian Aboriginal (3.1%) were overrepresented in Long Gully compared to regional averages of 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively. Scottish ancestry was slightly underrepresented at 8.1%.

Long Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Long Gully is 37 years, which is lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 make up 18.8%, while the 45-54 group comprises 9.2%. Since 2021, the median age has decreased by one year from 38 to 37, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 14.8% to 18.8%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.1% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 11.1% to 9.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Long Gully. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 52% (320 people), reaching 936 from 615. In contrast, the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.