Long Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Long Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Long Gully was estimated at around 3,311 as of February 2026, reflecting a decrease of 109 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,420. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population being 3,265 in June 2024, validated by an additional 12 new addresses since the Census date. The population density was around 951 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in the area during recent periods. AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics project an above median growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb of Long Gully expected to expand by 467 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Long Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Long Gully has received approximately 7 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 35 homes. In FY26 so far, there has been 1 recorded approval. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $461,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market.

This financial year, $4.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Long Gully's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Long Gully has significantly less development activity (72.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, construction activity has intensified recently. This level is also below national average, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 247 people per dwelling approval, Long Gully is considered a low density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Long Gully is projected to add 485 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Long Gully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect this region. Key initiatives include Bendigo Stadium and Showgrounds Redevelopment, Water and Sewer Network Program, Regional Sports Infrastructure Program - Bendigo, and La Trobe University Bendigo Campus Transformation. The following details projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Long Gully face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Long Gully has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 10.3% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.1% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical data aggregation. As of September 2025, 1,232 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 6.5% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Long Gully lagged at 51.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census responses indicated that only 10.4% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Long Gully had a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at 1.5% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

The ratio of workers to residents was 0.8, indicating a higher than average level of local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.1% while labour force increased by 1.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points, unlike Rest of Vic.'s employment decline of 0.7% and marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Long Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Long Gully had an income level below the national average in the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $38,218 and the average income stood at $49,989. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $41,371 (median) and $54,113 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Long Gully all fall between the 3rd and 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that the $800 - 1,499 bracket dominates with 29.9% of residents (989 people), differing from patterns across the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Long Gully, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Long Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Long Gully's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.8% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Long Gully stood at 28.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.9% and rented ones at 44.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,117, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Long Gully's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Long Gully features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.1% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 21.2% couples without children, and 19.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Long Gully fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas, both at 2.4%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.9% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

In Long Gully, a total of 15 active public transport stops are operational. These stops are served by 6 different routes, collectively facilitating 927 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is deemed good, with residents on average situated 273 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most Long Gully residents commute outward. Cars remain the predominant mode of transport, used by 92% of residents. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 10.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 132 trips daily, equating to approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Long Gully is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Long Gully faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 1,546 people), compared to 50.5% in Rest of Vic and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (14.6%) and arthritis (11.0%), with 54.4% reporting no medical ailments, lower than the 63.4% in Rest of Vic. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 18.8% of residents aged 65 and over (622 people), lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors are similar to national rankings, aligning with general population trends.

Long Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Long Gully's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.2% of its population being citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 92.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Long Gully, comprising 37.7% of people. However, Buddhism is overrepresented at 3.6%, compared to 1.0% across Rest of Vic.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.2%), English (30.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Dutch (1.4%) and Australian Aboriginal (3.1%) are notably overrepresented, while Scottish is slightly underrepresented at 8.1%.

Long Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Long Gully is 37, which is lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to Australia's national average of 38. The age profile shows that the 25-34 year-olds are prominent at 19.7%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 8.9% compared to Rest of Vic.. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is higher than the national average of 14.4%. Between 2021 and present, the median age has decreased by 1.2 years from 38 to 37, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Key changes include the 25-34 age group growing from 14.8% to 19.7%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.1% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 11.1% to 8.9% and the 15-24 group dropped from 12.5% to 11.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Long Gully. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 44%, reaching 938 people from 652. Conversely, the 75-84 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.