Long Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Long Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Long Gully is estimated at 3,309 as of May 2026. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 3,420 people, marking a reduction of 111 individuals (3.2%). AreaSearch's estimation of resident population in June 2025 was 3,275, with an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this number. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 950 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in Long Gully during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projected demographic shifts, Long Gully is expected to experience above median population growth in Australian non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the suburb's population is projected to expand by 442 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 12.3% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Long Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Long Gully has received approximately 7 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 35 homes. As of FY-26, there is 1 recorded approval. The population has decreased during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with diverse buyer options. The average construction cost for new dwellings is $461,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market.

This year, $4.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Long Gully's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Long Gully has significantly less development activity, with 71.0% below the regional average per person. This limited construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, although recent activity has increased. Nationally, Long Gully's development level is also below average, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% attached dwellings, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers due to affordability. This shift contrasts with the current housing mix of 92.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. With around 244 people per dwelling approval, Long Gully is considered a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Long Gully is projected to add 408 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Long Gully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects likely affecting this region. Major initiatives include Bendigo Stadium and Showgrounds Redevelopment, Water and Sewer Network Program, Regional Sports Infrastructure Program - Bendigo, and La Trobe University Bendigo Campus Transformation. The following list highlights those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Long Gully face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Long Gully has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate is 9.8%, with an estimated growth of 1.7% in the past year. As of December 2025, there are 1,216 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 6.1%, higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation is lower at 50.6%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Only 10.4% work from home. Leading industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 1.5%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. There are 0.8 workers per resident, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 1.7% while labour force increased by 0.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced a 0.6% employment decline and a 0.7% labour force decline, with a drop of 0.1 percentage point in unemployment. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Long Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Long Gully's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Long Gully is $38,218, with an average income of $49,989. This compares to Regional Vic.'s median and average incomes of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Long Gully's median income would be approximately $41,895 as of March 2026, with the average estimated at $54,798 by that date. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Long Gully all fall between the 3rd and 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that the $800 - 1,499 bracket dominates with 29.9% of residents (989 people), unlike the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Long Gully, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Long Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Long Gully, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.1% consisting of semi-detached properties, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This is comparable to Regional Vic., where 90.1% of dwellings are houses and 9.9% are other dwelling types. Home ownership in Long Gully stood at 28.8%, with the rest being mortgaged (26.9%) or rented (44.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,117, significantly lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Long Gully was recorded at $250, substantially below Regional Vic.'s figure of $285 and the national average of $375.

Long Gully features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.1% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 21.2% couples without children, and 19.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Long Gully fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas, each at 2.4%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.9% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Long Gully has 15 operational public transport stops. These are served by six distinct routes, offering a total of 927 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents usually located 273 meters from the nearest stop. Residents primarily commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 92%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 10.4% of residents work from home, which might reflect COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 132 trips daily, translating to roughly 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Long Gully is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Long Gully faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low, at approximately 47% of the total population (around 1,545 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 14.6% and 11.0% of residents respectively. However, 54.4% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The working-age population in Long Gully faces notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 19.3% of residents aged 65 and over (638 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Long Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Long Gully's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.2% of its population being citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 92.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Long Gully, comprising 37.7% of people. Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 3.6%, compared to 1.0% across Regional Vic.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.2%), English (30.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Dutch, Australian Aboriginal, and Scottish groups showed notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages: Dutch was overrepresented at 1.4%, Australian Aboriginal at 3.1%, and Scottish at 8.1%.

Long Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Long Gully is 37 years, which is lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 18.0%, while those aged 55-64 are comparatively smaller at 10.6% than in Regional Vic. Since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 14.8% to 18.0% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.1% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.1% to 9.5%, and the 85+ group dropped from 2.6% to 1.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Long Gully's age structure. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to increase solidly by 247 people (42%) from 595 to 843. Conversely, both the 75 to 84 and 65 to 74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.