Long Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Long Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Long Gully is around 3,311, reflecting a decrease of 109 people since the 2021 Census. This decrease corresponds to a 3.2% change from the previous population count of 3,420. AreaSearch's analysis, based on resident population estimates and new addresses validated following the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, supports this figure. The population density for Long Gully is approximately 951 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in the suburb during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, the suburb is projected to experience above median population growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Long Gully is expected to expand by 462 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 12.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Long Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Long Gully has averaged around 7 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 35 homes. As of FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. The population decline during this period has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with varied buyer options. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $461,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market.

This financial year, $4.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Long Gully's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Long Gully has significantly less development activity, with 71.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, though recent construction activity has increased. Nationally, this level is also below average, suggesting possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 92.0% houses) reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 247 people per dwelling approval, Long Gully exhibits characteristics of a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Long Gully is projected to add 416 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Long Gully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Bendigo Stadium and Showgrounds Redevelopment, Water and Sewer Network Program, Regional Sports Infrastructure Program - Bendigo, and La Trobe University Bendigo Campus Transformation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Long Gully face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Long Gully's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 9.8% as of December 2025. The area has seen estimated employment growth of 2.2% over the past year.

There are currently 1,245 residents employed, but the unemployment rate is 6.2% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Long Gully is lower at 51.3%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Only 10.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Major employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing.

The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 1.5% compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. As of the Census, there are 0.8 workers per resident, indicating a higher-than-average local employment opportunities ratio. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, while labour force grew by 1.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Long Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Long Gully's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Long Gully is $38,218 and the average income stands at $49,989. This compares to figures for Regional Vic., which are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $41,371 (median) and $54,113 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Long Gully all fall between the 3rd and 9th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 29.9% of residents (989 people) earn within the $800 - 1,499 bracket, differing from patterns across the broader area where 30.3% earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Long Gully, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Long Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Long Gully, as per the latest Census data, 91.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.1% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional Vic., where 90.1% of dwellings are houses and 9.9% are other types. Home ownership in Long Gully stood at 28.8%, lower than Regional Vic.'s figure. Mortgaged dwellings comprised 26.9% and rented ones made up 44.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,117, significantly below the Regional Vic. average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Long Gully was $250, lower than Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Long Gully's mortgage repayments were substantially lower at $1,117 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also significantly lower at $250 versus the national figure of $375.

Long Gully features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 21.2% couples without children, and 19.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households at 4.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Long Gully fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.9% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Long Gully has 15 active public transport stops. These are served by 6 routes offering a total of 927 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 273 meters to the nearest one. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode at 92%. The average vehicle ownership is 1.2 per dwelling, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 10.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 132 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Long Gully is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Long Gully faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Various health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 47% (around 1,546 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 14.6% and 11.0% of residents respectively, while 54.4% report being free from medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%.

The working-age population experiences notable health challenges with higher chronic condition rates. The area has 18.9% (around 625 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Long Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Long Gully, surveyed in 2016, had a culturally diverse population with 85.2% being citizens, 89.3% born in Australia, and 92.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the prevalent religion, comprising 37.7%. Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 3.6%, compared to Regional Vic's 1.0%.

Top ancestry groups were Australian (31.2%), English (30.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Notably, Dutch (1.4% vs regional 1.7%), Australian Aboriginal (3.1% vs 1.4%), and Scottish (8.1% vs 8.8%) showed significant divergences in representation.

Long Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Long Gully is 37 years, which is lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 years are prominent at 19.7%, while those aged 45-54 years are comparatively smaller at 9.0% than in Regional Vic.. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.4%. Between 2021 and present, the median age has decreased by 1.2 years from 38 to 37, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Key changes include the growth of the 25-34 age group from 14.8% to 19.7%, and the increase of the 35-44 cohort from 11.1% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 11.1% to 9.0%, and the 85+ group has dropped from 2.6% to 1.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Long Gully. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 41% (268 people), reaching 921 from 652. In contrast, the 75-84 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.