Long Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Long Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Long Gully statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 3,420 people as of the Census conducted in 2021. By November 2025, this number had decreased to around 3,309, a decrease of 111 people or approximately 3.2%. This decline is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,265 for the area, based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of an additional 11 new addresses since the Census date. The current population density stands at around 950 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively consistent with averages observed across other areas assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver of population growth in the Long Gully (SA2) has been overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is utilizing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, they are employing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made through a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering these projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for Australian non-metropolitan areas like the Long Gully (SA2). According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is anticipated to expand by 470 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of approximately 14.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Long Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Long Gully has experienced approximately 7 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 35 homes. As of FY-26, 1 dwelling approval has been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $461,000, indicating developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year, $4.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Long Gully has significantly less development activity, 72.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, though recent construction activity has intensified. Nationally, this level is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 33.0% detached dwellings and 67.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 92.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With approximately 247 people per dwelling approval, Long Gully exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Future projections estimate Long Gully adding 488 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Long Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to impact the region. Key projects are Bendigo Stadium and Showgrounds Redevelopment, Water and Sewer Network Program, Regional Sports Infrastructure Program - Bendigo, and La Trobe University Bendigo Campus Transformation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Long Gully face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Long Gully's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 10.1% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year.

There are 1,240 residents employed currently, but the unemployment rate is 6.4% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Long Gully lags behind at 47.0%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The leading employment industries among Long Gully residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area specializes particularly in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.5% of Long Gully's workforce compared to 7.5% in Rest of Vic. The ratio of workers per resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above average. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.2%, while labour force increased by 1.8%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. Providing broader context, state-level data up to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Long Gully. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with local employment expected to increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.5% over ten years based on industry-specific projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Long Gully's median income among taxpayers was $38,218 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $49,989 during the same period. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median and average incomes were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes for Long Gully as of September 2025 would be approximately $41,371 and $54,113. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Long Gully all fell between the 3rd and 9th percentiles nationally. The income distribution showed that the $800 - 1,499 bracket dominated with 29.9% of residents (989 people), differing from broader area patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Long Gully, with only 81.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile.

Long Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Long Gully, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This is comparable to Non-Metro Vic., which had 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Long Gully stood at 28.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.9% and rented ones at 44.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,117, significantly lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,408. The median weekly rent in Long Gully was recorded at $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $295. Nationally, Long Gully's mortgage repayments were considerably lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Long Gully features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 21.2% couples without children, and 19.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Long Gully fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.9% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Long Gully has 15 active public transport stops operating currently. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 6 different routes. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 927.

The accessibility of the transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located 273 meters away from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 132 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 61 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Long Gully is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Long Gully faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,545 people), compared to 50.4% across the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 14.6% and 11.0% of residents respectively.

Conversely, 54.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 62.0% across the rest of Victoria. The area has 19.0% of residents aged 65 and over (628 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Long Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Long Gully's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.2% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 37.7% of Long Gully's population. Buddhism, however, is overrepresented at 3.6%, compared to 1.4% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.2%), English (30.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Notable divergences include Dutch (1.4% vs regional 1.1%), Australian Aboriginal (3.1% vs 1.7%), and Scottish (8.1% vs 8.7%).

Long Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Long Gully is 37 years, which is lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 make up a significant portion at 18.8%, while those aged 45-54 constitute a smaller proportion at 9.2% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and the present, the median age has decreased by one year from 38 years to 37 years, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. This change is reflected in the growth of the 25-34 age group from 14.8% to 18.8% and the 35-44 cohort from 11.1% to 12.5%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 11.1% to 9.2%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic changes in Long Gully. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 50%, reaching 935 individuals from its current total of 622. Conversely, the 65-74 and 15-24 age groups are projected to experience population declines.