Maiden Gully

Maiden Gully lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Population estimates for Maiden Gully indicate a figure of around 6,207 as of February 2026. This represents an increase of 800 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 5,407. AreaSearch's analysis of latest ERP data (June 2024) and validated new addresses shows a resident population estimate of 5,510. The suburb's population density is 154 persons per square kilometer. Maiden Gully's growth since the Census exceeds regional averages; it grew by 14.8%, compared to SA4 region's 8.0% and Rest of Vic.'s rate. Interstate migration drove this growth, contributing approximately 60.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for Maiden Gully, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in Maiden Gully, with an expected growth of 2,378 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 30.5% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Maiden Gully when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Maiden Gully has recorded approximately 35 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 177 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved so far in FY26. On average, each dwelling built over these years attracted about 2.6 new residents.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $568,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This year, approximately $5.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential. When compared to the rest of Victoria, Maiden Gully has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas.

Recent development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 227 people per dwelling approval, Maiden Gully shows a developing market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Maiden Gully is expected to grow by approximately 1,894 residents through to 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience increased competition as the population grows.

Maiden Gully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 10 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable among these are the Jobs Gully Road Social Housing Project, Neangar Green Estate, Lansell Square Shopping Centre, and Chum Street Remediation Project. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Maiden Gully places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Maiden Gully has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.1% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.8%. As of September 2025, 3,087 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.7% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is high at 72.5%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, 15.6% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in finance & insurance, with an employment share of 2.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.8% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 2.8% alongside labour force increasing by 2.8%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.7%, the labour force fell by 0.6%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Maiden Gully's employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Income data from AreaSearch for Maiden Gully in financial year 2023 shows median assessed income at $54,270 and average income at $65,215. This is below the national average. For Rest of Vic., median income was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Maiden Gully as of September 2025 are approximately $58,747 (median) and $70,595 (average). The 2021 Census indicates household, family and personal incomes in Maiden Gully cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 40.1% of locals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% fall within this range. After housing costs, residents retain 88.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Maiden Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Maiden Gully, as recorded in the latest Census, 98.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 1.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro Vic., where 90.1% of dwellings were houses and 9.9% were other types. Home ownership in Maiden Gully stood at 36.9%, with mortgaged properties making up 55.9% and rented dwellings accounting for 7.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,690, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Weekly rent in Maiden Gully was recorded at $380, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Maiden Gully's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Maiden Gully features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.3% of all households, including 49.9% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.7%, with lone person households at 11.2% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

Maiden Gully performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high, with 32.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.1% in primary education, 10.1% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 30 active stops operating within Maiden Gully. These stops are serviced by four routes, collectively providing 460 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 336 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 15.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 65 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Maiden Gully's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Maiden Gully's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues are seen across both young and elderly residents, with a private health cover rate of 53%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 50.5%.

Asthma and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 9.7% and 8.0% respectively. 70.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among working-age individuals are typical. The area has 14.3% of residents aged 65 and over (887 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 23.9%. National rankings for health indicators are broadly similar to the general population.

The latest Census data sees Maiden Gully placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Maiden Gully had a cultural diversity below average, with 94.0% of its population born in Australia and 95.2% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 96.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.5%, compared to 47.3% across Rest of Vic.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.9%), Australian (32.2%), and Scottish (9.3%). Notably, Welsh (0.6%) and Irish (9.0%) populations exceeded regional averages of 0.4% and 9.7%, respectively, while German (3.4%) was slightly lower than the regional average of 3.5%.

Maiden Gully's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Maiden Gully is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 years are prominent at 16.2%, while those aged 75-84 are smaller in number at 3.8% compared to Rest of Vic.. Since 2021, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 11.9% to 13.5%, and the 25-34 age group increased from 9.1% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 17.9% to 16.2%, and the 0-4 age group dropped from 6.9% to 5.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Maiden Gully's age structure, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to rise substantially by 434 people (67%), increasing from 651 to 1,086.