California Gully

California Gully has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the California Gully statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 4,395. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 4,476 people, marking an 81-person drop or approximately 1.8%. The current resident population estimate of 4,275 by AreaSearch was derived from examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validating 44 new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio stands at 1,172 persons per square kilometer for California Gully (SA2), which aligns with averages observed across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, California Gully has exhibited a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, outperforming its corresponding SA3 area. Interstate migration was the primary driver for population growth in the area, contributing approximately 46.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all factors including natural growth and overseas migration were positive contributors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. In terms of future projections, California Gully (SA2) is forecasted to experience significant population growth. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 1,779 persons, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 45.9% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in California Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates California Gully recorded approximately 5 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 29 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved in FY-26. This results in an average of 9.9 new residents per year for every home built during this period, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $407,000, reflecting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $171,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., California Gully has significantly less development activity, at 82.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Looking ahead, California Gully is expected to grow by 2,016 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. California Gully reflects a highly mature market, with around 922 people per dwelling approval.

California Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Barrell Street Childcare Centre, California Gully Oval Upgrade, Watson Avenue Childcare Centre, and Poplar Street Townhouse Development. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment drivers in California Gully are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

California Gully has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services.

The unemployment rate was 7.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.4%. As of September 2025, 1,930 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Rest of Vic.'s at 3.8%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags behind at 51.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Top industries include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 1.6% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census data comparing working population and resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 1.4%, while labour force rose by 2.4%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1 percentage point. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts suggest employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years for California Gully, based on its current employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of California Gully had a lower income level than average nationally in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The median income among taxpayers was $42,105 and the average income stood at $46,846, compared to figures for Rest of Vic.'s of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $45,579 (median) and $50,711 (average). From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in California Gully all fell between the 5th and 10th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spanned 30.0% of locals (1,318 people) in the $800 - 1,499 category, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket led at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

California Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

California Gully's dwelling structure, as assessed in the latest Census, consisted of 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in California Gully stood at 31.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 34.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,200, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,408. The median weekly rent figure was $251, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $295. Nationally, California Gully's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

California Gully features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.8% of all households, including 19.4% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 18.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 34.4% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

California Gully faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.2%) and certificates (30.7%). Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.5% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

California Gully has 24 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of buses running on four individual routes. Together, these routes provide 745 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of the transport system is rated as good, with residents typically located 296 meters from their nearest stop. On average, service frequency across all routes is 106 trips per day, which equates to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in California Gully is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across California Gully, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 45% of the total population (~1,998 people) have private health cover, compared to 50.4% across Rest of Vic., and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 12.6 and 11.7% of residents respectively, while 56.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 62.0% across Rest of Vic..

As of 2021, 18.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (813 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

California Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

California Gully, surveyed in 2016, had a culturally diverse population with 87.6% citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 43.8%. Buddhism was overrepresented at 1.9%, compared to 1.4% regionally.

The top three ancestral groups were English (31.6%), Australian (31.5%), and Irish (9.2%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal (3.1%) and German (3.7%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Scottish ancestry was slightly underrepresented at 8.0%.

California Gully's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in California Gully is 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 15.5% of the population, higher than Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort comprises 9.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has increased from 13.0% to 15.5%, and the 35-44 cohort has risen from 11.4% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 10.9% to 9.0%, and the 5-14 group has fallen from 13.5% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling indicates that California Gully's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 age group projected to grow by 96% (651 people), reaching 1,333 from 681.