California Gully

California Gully has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, California Gully's population is estimated at around 4,550. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 4,476 people, a rise of 74 individuals (1.7%). The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 4,477 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, and an additional 44 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,213 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, California Gully has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, outpacing the SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 46.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although natural growth and overseas migration also played positive roles.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, California Gully is forecasted to experience a significant population increase of 1,769 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 40.7% over the 17-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

Residential development activity is lower than average in California Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows California Gully had approximately 15 residential properties approved per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 79 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved in FY-26.

On average, each home built over the past five financial years accommodated about 3.6 new residents annually. This demand significantly outpaces supply, likely exerting upward pressure on prices and intensifying competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $408,000, consistent with broader regional development trends. Compared to Rest of Vic., California Gully has notably less development activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically reinforces demand and prices for existing properties.

Additionally, California Gully's development levels are lower than the national average, suggesting an established area potentially facing planning limitations. Recent building activity in California Gully consists solely of detached houses, preserving its suburban character while attracting space-seeking buyers. With approximately 1025 people per dwelling approval, it reflects a highly mature market. Future projections from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate indicate California Gully will add around 1,851 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

California Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Barrell Street Childcare Centre, California Gully Oval Upgrade, Watson Avenue Childcare Centre, and Poplar Street Townhouse Development. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates California Gully faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

California Gully has a balanced mix of white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 7.1%, as of June 2025.

The area has 1,902 residents employed, but its unemployment rate is higher than Rest of Vic.'s by 3.3%. Workforce participation lags at 51.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading industries are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.6% versus the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. In the year ending June 2025, labour force increased by 1.3%, but employment declined by 0.4%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment contracted by 0.9%, labour force fell by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within California Gully. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between industries. Applying these projections to California Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

California Gully's median income among taxpayers was $42,105 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $46,846 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $47,225 (median) and $52,542 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in California Gully all fell between the 5th and 10th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 30.0% of locals (1,365 people) in the $800 - 1,499 category, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

California Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

California Gully's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consists of 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in California Gully stands at 31.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented dwellings at 34.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,200, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,408. The median weekly rent figure is $251, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $295. Nationally, California Gully's mortgage repayments are lower at $1,200 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

California Gully features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 62.8% of all households, including 19.4% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 18.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 34.4% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

California Gully faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (8.2%) and certificates (30.7%). Educational participation is high at 30.1%, including primary education (11.5%), secondary education (8.9%), and tertiary education (2.5%).

California Gully Primary School serves the area, with an enrollment of 170 students as of a recent report. The school's ICSEA score is 915. There is one school focusing on primary education; secondary options are available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited at 3.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.9, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 24 active stops operating within California Gully, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by two distinct routes, collectively facilitating 489 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 296 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 69 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in California Gully is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across California Gully, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 45% of the total population (~2,068 people), compared to 50.5% across Rest of Vic. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

Mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 12.6% of residents, followed by arthritis affecting 11.7%. Conversely, 56.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.0% across Rest of Vic. The area has 18.7% of residents aged 65 and over (850 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

California Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

California Gully, as per the census data from June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with a majority of its population being Australian citizens born in Australia who speak English at home. Specifically, 87.6%, 90.1%, and 91.9% respectively fell into these categories. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion, accounting for 43.8% of the population.

However, Buddhism showed a slight overrepresentation with 1.9% compared to the regional average of 1.4%. In terms of ancestry, English (31.6%) and Australian (31.5%) were the top two groups, followed by Irish at 9.2%. Notable differences existed in the representation of Australian Aboriginal (3.1% vs regional 1.7%), German (3.7% vs 3.2%), and Scottish (8.0% vs 8.7%).

California Gully's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in California Gully is 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 15.6% of the population, higher than the Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 9.1%, which is less prevalent compared to the Rest of Vic. According to the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has increased from 13.0% to 15.6%, and the 35-44 cohort has risen from 11.4% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 10.9% to 9.1%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 13.5% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling indicates that California Gully's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 25-34 age group leading this shift by growing by 87%, adding 617 people to reach a total of 1,327 from its current figure of 709.