Flora Hill - Spring Gully
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Flora Hill - Spring Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Flora Hill - Spring Gully's population is around 9,575 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 138 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,437. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,566 in June 2024 and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 725 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 77.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. A significant population increase is forecast in the top quartile of regional areas nationally, with the area expected to increase by 2,364 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of 24.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Flora Hill - Spring Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Flora Hill - Spring Gully has recorded approximately 36 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 182 homes over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 9 approvals so far in FY-26. On average, 0.1 new residents per year arrive per new home over these five financial years, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand and supports potential population growth while offering greater buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $525,000.

This financial year has seen $9.9 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity compared to the rest of Victoria. Flora Hill - Spring Gully has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person compared to the rest of Victoria and ranks among the 57th percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. Recent construction comprises 60% detached dwellings and 40% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 85% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 332 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

Future projections show Flora Hill - Spring Gully adding 2,355 residents by 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Flora Hill - Spring Gully has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Flora Hill, Burnayi Lurnayi Flora Hill, Spring Hill Estate, and Regional Housing Fund (Victoria). The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Flora Hill - Spring Gully remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Flora Hill - Spring Gully has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.2% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9% over the past year.

There were 4,882 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 0.4% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was high at 63.5%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had notably higher concentration with levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 0.7% of Flora Hill - Spring Gully's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area showed limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 0.9%, labour force increased by 1.9%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.9% and labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Flora Hill - Spring Gully's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Flora Hill - Spring Gully has a median income of $51,179 and an average income of $66,943. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., which has a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Flora Hill - Spring Gully are approximately $56,353 (median) and $73,711 (average) as of March 2025. Census 2021 income data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Flora Hill - Spring Gully between the 34th and 43rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.8% of locals (3,140 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the broader area where 30.3% fall into this range. After housing expenses, 86.0% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Flora Hill - Spring Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Flora Hill - Spring Gully, as per the latest Census evaluation, 84.9% of dwellings were houses while 15.1% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Flora Hill - Spring Gully stood at 32.7%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged properties at 29.9% and rented ones at 37.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,399, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,408. The median weekly rent figure in Flora Hill - Spring Gully was recorded at $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $295. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863 while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Flora Hill - Spring Gully features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.3% of all households, including 22.9% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.7%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 5.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Flora Hill - Spring Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The educational profile of the area is notable within its region. University qualification rates exceed those of Rest of Vic (31.3% vs 21.7%) and the SA3 area (23.6%). Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 33.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 21.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary (8.8%), secondary (8.7%), and tertiary (8.1%) levels. The area's four schools have a combined enrollment of 2,093 students. Flora Hill - Spring Gully demonstrates typical Australian school conditions with an ICSEA score of 1047, indicating balanced educational opportunities. There are three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 21.9 places per 100 residents versus the regional average of 18.0, suggesting the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Flora Hill - Spring Gully has 64 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that combined offer 1545 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 209 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are approximately 220 daily trips, equating to about 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Flora Hill - Spring Gully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Flora Hill - Spring Gully faces significant health challenges.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~5,017 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues affect 12.4% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.3%. Around 62.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.0% across Rest of Vic. The area has 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,598 people), lower than the 18.9% in Rest of Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Flora Hill - Spring Gully is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Flora Hill-Spring Gully showed lower cultural diversity, with 90.5% citizens, 89.6% born in Australia, and 92.9% speaking English only at home as of 2016 Census data. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 41.4%. Buddhism was slightly overrepresented at 1.6%, compared to 1.4% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.1%), Australian (27.5%), and Irish (12.2%). Scottish (9.5%) and German (3.6%) showed notable overrepresentation, while Sri Lankan was slightly higher at 0.2%.

Flora Hill - Spring Gully's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Flora Hill - Spring Gully is 37 years, which is significantly lower than Victoria's average of 43 and close to Australia's national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are prominent, making up 17.3% of the population, while those aged 65-74 comprise only 8.8%. Since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.3% to 15.9%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 15.6% to 17.3%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 12.3% to 10.7%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 12.2% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Flora Hill - Spring Gully's age structure. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 81%, increasing from 1,527 to 2,764 people. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group is expected to contract by 56 residents.