Spring Gully (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Spring Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Spring Gully (Vic.) is estimated at around 3,124 people. This reflects an increase of 32 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,092 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,110 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in Jun 2024, along with validation of two new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 398 persons per square kilometer. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 77.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to expand by 627 persons, reflecting an increase of 19.3% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Spring Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Spring Gully had 15 dwelling approvals over five years, from 2016 to 2020 inclusive. This averages out to three new dwellings approved annually, reflecting the minimal construction activity typical of rural areas with modest housing needs and limited local demand and infrastructure capacity. The small number of approvals can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Spring Gully has significantly less construction activity, and its development pattern is also well below national averages. From 2016 to 2020, recent construction comprised 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% attached dwellings in Spring Gully. This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This is a considerable change from the current housing mix of 88.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. As of the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate in 2021, Spring Gully has an estimated population of 562 people per dwelling approval, indicating its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Spring Gully adding 603 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Spring Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact this area. Key projects are the Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), Flora Hill Housing Development, Flora Hill, and Kennington Reservoir Dam Wall Rehabilitation. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Spring Gully demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Spring Gully's workforce is well-educated with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.6% as of September 2025, showing a 3.1% employment growth over the past year according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of that date, 1,554 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census responses indicated that 20.3% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Leading employment industries among Spring Gully's residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area shows significant specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.6% of local workers, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 3.0%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In comparison, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Spring Gully. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Spring Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that income in Spring Gully is above the national average. The median assessed income is $52,774 and the average income stands at $69,029. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s figures show a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Spring Gully would be approximately $57,128 (median) and $74,724 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Spring Gully rank modestly, between the 37th and 48th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort spans 33.8% of locals (1,055 people) with an income range of $1,500 - 2,999. This aligns with the region where this cohort also represents 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.1% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Spring Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Spring Gully's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.5% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Spring Gully was at 42.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,454, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Spring Gully was $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Spring Gully's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,454 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Spring Gully features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.8% of all households, including 25.5% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Spring Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Spring Gully's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. As of 2021 data, 31.8% of residents aged 15+ held university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 23.6% in the SA3 area. This educational advantage positions Spring Gully strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (21.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in secondary education, 9.9% in primary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Spring Gully has 16 operational public transport stops. Four routes service these stops, together offering 718 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically residing 264 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most residents travel outward for work, primarily by car (96%). On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 20.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 102 trips per day, equating to roughly 44 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Spring Gully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Spring Gully faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,690 people), compared to 50.5% across Rest of Vic. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.7% and 10.7% of residents respectively. 62.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.6% of residents aged 65 and over (737 people), with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Spring Gully placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Spring Gully's population showed low cultural diversity, with 91.5% born in Australia and 92.9% being citizens. English was the language spoken at home by 96.3%. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 46.5%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% regionally. Top ancestral groups were English (32.0%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (12.2%). Scottish ancestry was notably higher at 10.5%, German at 3.8%, and Sri Lankan at 0.2%.

Spring Gully hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Spring Gully's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Spring Gully has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (13.4%) but fewer residents aged 0-4 (4.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has increased from 9.5% to 13.4%, while those aged 15-24 have increased from 10.6% to 12.6%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has declined from 13.6% to 11.7%, and those aged 45-54 have decreased from 12.3% to 10.7%. By 2041, Spring Gully's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 66%, reaching 693 people from the current 418. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 17 people.