Spring Gully (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Spring Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Spring Gully's population is estimated at around 3,118 people, reflecting an increase of 26 individuals since the 2021 Census. This rise corresponds to a growth rate of approximately 0.8%. The ABS ERP estimate for the suburb, based on surrounding areas applied by AreaSearch in June 2024, was 3,115 residents. Post-Census validation by AreaSearch revealed two additional verified addresses contributing to this increase. This population density translates to about 397 persons per square kilometer.

Overseas migration accounted for roughly 77% of the area's recent population gains. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Spring Gully is projected to have an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas, with an increase of approximately 619 persons, representing a 19.4% rise over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Spring Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Spring Gully has seen limited development activity with an average of 2 approvals per year over five years (13 approvals total). This reflects its rural nature, where development is driven by local housing needs rather than broad market demand. Yearly growth figures may vary considerably due to low approval numbers.

Compared to Rest of Vic and national averages, Spring Gully has significantly less construction activity. New building activity comprises 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift from the current 88.0% houses reflects reduced development sites and changing lifestyle demands. The area's population per dwelling approval is estimated at 562 people, indicating its quiet development environment. By 2041, Spring Gully is projected to grow by 605 residents (AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Looking ahead, Spring Gully is expected to grow by 605 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Spring Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to impact the region. Notable initiatives are Victoria's Regional Housing Fund, Flora Hill Housing Development, and Kennington Reservoir Dam Wall Rehabilitation.

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The employment environment in Spring Gully shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Spring Gully has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 2.7% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.2%. As of June 2025, 1,522 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 1.0% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

The area had a particular employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 0.6% employment compared to 7.5% regionally. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.2% while labour force increased by 1.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points in Spring Gully. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9%, labour force decline of 0.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, projected national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Spring Gully's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Spring Gully's median income among taxpayers was $52,774 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $69,029 during the same period. These figures are higher than those for Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest that median income would be approximately $59,191 and average income around $77,423 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Spring Gully ranked modestly between the 37th and 48th percentiles. The earnings profile showed that 33.8% of locals (1,053 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 30.3% similarly occupied this range. Housing costs were manageable with 88.1% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Spring Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Spring Gully, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.5% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Spring Gully was 42.6%, with the remaining dwellings being either mortgaged (35.9%) or rented (21.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,454, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,408. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $290, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $295. Nationally, Spring Gully's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Spring Gully features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.8 percent of all households, including 25.5 percent couples with children, 27.0 percent couples without children, and 10.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.2 percent, with lone person households at 33.5 percent and group households making up 2.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Spring Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Spring Gully is notably higher than broader benchmarks. 31.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 23.6% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.6%, while certificates make up 21.5%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.1% in secondary education, 9.9% in primary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education. Spring Gully Primary School serves the local community, enrolling 415 students as of a recent report. The school's ICSEA score is 1047, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. There is one school focusing exclusively on primary education in the area, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents stand at 13.3, below the regional average of 17.9, suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Spring Gully shows 16 active transport stops in operation. These are served by buses operating along two routes, providing a total of 560 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 264 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 80 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Spring Gully is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Spring Gully faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 54% (around 1,687 people), compared to 50.5% across the rest of Victoria.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis and mental health problems, affecting 10.7% and 10.7% of residents respectively. About 62.7% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the 62.0% in the rest of Victoria. The area has a larger proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.8% (742 people), compared to 18.9% across Victoria.

The latest Census data sees Spring Gully placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Spring Gully's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Spring Gully, comprising 46.5% of its population. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% across the rest of Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (12.2%). Notably, Scottish (10.5%) and German (3.8%) populations were overrepresented in Spring Gully compared to regional averages of 8.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Sri Lankan ancestry was also slightly overrepresented at 0.2%.

Spring Gully hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Spring Gully's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Spring Gully has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (12.5%) but fewer residents aged 0-4 (4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 25-34 has grown from 9.5% to 12.1%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 10.6% to 12.5%. Conversely, the age group of 5-14 has declined from 13.6% to 12.0%. By 2041, Spring Gully's population is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 78%, reaching 672 people from the current 377. However, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 25 people.