Spring Gully (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Spring Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis using ABS population updates and verified new addresses, the suburb of Spring Gully (Vic.) had an estimated population of around 3,124 as of February 2026. This figure represents a rise of 32 individuals (1.0%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,092 people in the area. The latest estimate is derived from AreaSearch's resident population count of 3,110, based on their examination of the ABS's ERP data release from June 2024, combined with an additional two validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 398 persons per square kilometer for Spring Gully (Vic.). Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in the area, contributing approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they employ the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends suggest an above median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb expected to expand by 630 persons to reach a total of 3,754 individuals by 2041, reflecting a 19.7% increase over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Spring Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Spring Gully has seen minimal construction activity with 3 new dwellings approved annually on average over the five years from 2016 to 2020, totalling 16 approvals. This low level of development is characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It should be noted that due to the small number of approvals, individual development projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Spring Gully shows significantly less construction activity than Rest of Vic., with its development pattern well below national averages. Recent construction comprises 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards compact living which offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix of 88.0% houses, indicating reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population density in Spring Gully is 515 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate that Spring Gully is expected to add 616 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Future projections show Spring Gully adding 616 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Spring Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), Flora Hill Housing Development, and Kennington Reservoir Dam Wall Rehabilitation. The following details these projects which are likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Spring Gully demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Spring Gully has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.4%, lower than the regional average of 3.7%. Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 2.8%.

As of December 2025, 1,562 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% below Regional Vic.'s rate. Workforce participation is similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Approximately 20.3% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

Education & training is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.6% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 7.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, while labour force grew by 2.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic. saw a 0.6% decline in employment and a 0.7% decrease in labour force, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Spring Gully's employment mix suggests local growth should be around 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Spring Gully is $52,774 and average income is $69,029. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $57,128 and average income is around $74,724. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Spring Gully rank modestly between 37th and 48th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income cohort spans 33.8% of locals (1,055 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999, similar to the region at 30.3%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.1% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 43rd percentile and SEIFA income ranking places Spring Gully in the 6th decile.

Spring Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Spring Gully, as per the latest Census evaluation, 88.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 11.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Spring Gully stood at 42.6%, similar to Regional Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,454, higher than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Spring Gully was $290, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Spring Gully's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,454 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $290 compared to the national figure of $375.

Spring Gully features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.8% of all households, including 25.5% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4 people.

The educational profile of Spring Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Spring Gully's residents aged 15+ have a higher educational attainment compared to broader benchmarks. Specifically, 31.8% hold university qualifications, surpassing Rest of Vic.'s 21.7% and SA3 area's 23.6%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 34.1% of residents holding them; advanced diplomas account for 12.6% while certificates make up 21.5%. Educational participation is notably high at 29.0%, with 10.1% enrolled in secondary education, 9.9% in primary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in secondary education, 9.9% in primary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sixteen active public transport stops operate within Spring Gully. These are served by four distinct routes that collectively facilitate 718 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically situated 264 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most residents commute outward, predominantly using cars at a rate of 96%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 20.3% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 102 trips daily, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Spring Gully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Spring Gully faces significant health challenges, according to an AreaSearch assessment. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions were found to be somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover was found to be fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,690 people), compared to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.7 and 10.7% of residents respectively. 62.7% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.5% of residents aged 65 and over (734 people), with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Spring Gully placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Spring Gully, surveyed in 2016, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 91.5% born there, and 92.9% being citizens. English was the primary language spoken at home by 96.3%. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 46.5% of residents.

Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented compared to regional Victoria, with 0.3% of Spring Gully's population identifying as such. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (12.2%). Notable differences in ethnic group representation included Scottish at 10.5%, German at 3.8%, and Sri Lankan at 0.2%.

Spring Gully hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Spring Gully's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Spring Gully has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (13.3%) but fewer residents aged 0-4 (4.0%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the age group 25-34 has grown from 9.5% to 13.3%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.6% to 12.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.5% and the 45-54 group dropped from 12.3% to 10.5%. By 2041, Spring Gully's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 62%, reaching 673 people from the current 415. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decline by 16 people.