Spring Gully (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Spring Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Spring Gully (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,124 people. This figure reflects a 1.0% increase from the 2021 Census population count of 3,092 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,110 following examination of ABS's ERP data release in June 2024, along with validation of two new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 398 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is utilising ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they employ the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the Spring Gully (Vic.) (SA2) is projected to experience above median population growth in Australian non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, it is expected to grow by 618 persons, reflecting a total gain of 19.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Spring Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Spring Gully has seen minimal construction activity in recent years. Specifically, three new dwellings were approved annually over the past five years, totalling 15 approvals during this period. This low level of development is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that with such low approval numbers, yearly growth figures can vary considerably based on individual projects. Compared to other regions, Spring Gully has substantially lower development levels than the rest of Victoria. This activity level also falls below national patterns. The type of new building activity in Spring Gully consists of 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly composed of houses (88.0%).

The change reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Currently, there are an estimated 562 people in the area for each dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Spring Gully is projected to add 598 residents by 2041 if current development rates continue. However, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth under these conditions, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Spring Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. Four projects identified by AreaSearch may impact the area. Key projects are Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), Flora Hill Housing Development, Kennington Reservoir Dam Wall Rehabilitation.

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The employment environment in Spring Gully shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Spring Gully has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.7% as of September 2025, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. There are 1,543 residents employed currently, with workforce participation similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area specializes in education & training, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, but has limited presence in agriculture, forestry & fishing at 0.6% compared to the regional 7.5%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Over the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, while labour force also grew by 2.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 1.0% below Rest of Vic.'s rate. By contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Spring Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Spring Gully has an income level slightly above the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Spring Gully is $52,774, while the average income stands at $69,029. These figures compare to those of Rest of Vic., which are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Spring Gully would be approximately $57,128 (median) and $74,724 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Spring Gully all rank modestly, between the 37th and 48th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that the predominant cohort spans 33.8% of locals (1,055 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 88.1% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 43rd percentile and the area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Spring Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Spring Gully, as per the latest Census evaluation, 88.5% of dwellings were houses with 11.4% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Spring Gully stood at 42.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.9% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,454, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,408. The median weekly rent in Spring Gully was $290 compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $295. Nationally, Spring Gully's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,454 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $290 compared to the national figure of $375.

Spring Gully features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.8% of all households, including 25.5% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Spring Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Spring Gully's educational attainment is notably high, with 31.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to the broader benchmarks of 21.7% in Rest of Vic. and 23.6% in the SA3 area. The area's strong educational advantage positions it well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.6% and certificates for 21.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in secondary education, 9.9% in primary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 16 active stops operating within Spring Gully. These stops offer a mix of bus services. Four routes service these stops collectively providing 718 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 264 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 102 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Spring Gully is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Spring Gully faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively high at approximately 54% (around 1,690 people), compared to 50.4% across the rest of Victoria.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis and mental health problems, affecting 10.7% and 10.7% of residents respectively. About 62.7% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the 62.0% in the rest of Victoria. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.8% (around 743 people), compared to 18.9% across the rest of Victoria.

The latest Census data sees Spring Gully placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Spring Gully had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 91.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Spring Gully, making up 46.5% of its population. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, comprising 0.3% compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (12.2%). Some other ethnic groups showed notable differences in representation: Scottish at 10.5% (versus 8.7% regionally), German at 3.8% (versus 3.2%), and Sri Lankan at 0.2% (versus 0.1%).

Spring Gully hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Spring Gully's median age of 44 years is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Spring Gully has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (12.6%) but fewer residents aged 0-4 (4.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 25-34 has grown from 9.5% to 12.1%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 10.6% to 12.6%. Conversely, the age group of 5-14 has declined from 13.6% to 12.0%. By the year 2041, Spring Gully's age composition is expected to change significantly. The demographic shift will be led by the 25-34 age group, which is projected to grow by 78 people (from 378 to 673). Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is expected to decrease by 26 people.