Heathcote

Heathcote lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Heathcote's population is around 5,560 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 498 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,062 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,336 in June 2024 and an additional 115 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 7.3 persons per square kilometer. Heathcote's growth rate of 9.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (5.9%) and the non-metro area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 94.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year for each SA2 area. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Heathcote is forecasted to experience significant population increase, expected to grow by 1,803 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 28.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Heathcote when compared nationally

Heathcote has seen approximately 42 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 210 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling has accommodated around 2.6 new residents annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating robust demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value for new homes is $321,000.

This year, $4.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Heathcote exhibits moderately higher building activity, with a 25.0% increase per person over the past five years. This maintains reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, although recent development activity has slowed somewhat.

All new construction consists of standalone homes, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 206 people per dwelling approval, Heathcote displays characteristics of a growth area. By 2041, it is projected to grow by 1,572 residents according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Construction pace is maintaining steady with projected growth, but increasing population may intensify competition among buyers.

Heathcote has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area's performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Four projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Heathcote Community Hub Redevelopment, Heathcote Boutique Lots (SIG Group), Axedale Solar Farm, and Strathfieldsaye Growth Area. The following details those likely to be most relevant:.

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Employment drivers in Heathcote are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Heathcote has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors, and an unemployment rate of 5.2%. Over the past year, there was estimated employment growth of 1.4%.

As of September 2025, 2,222 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 6.6% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation in Heathcote is lower at 47.3%, contrasting with Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing, with mining showing significant specialization (7.4 times the regional level). However, education & training has a limited presence with 6.5% employment compared to 9.1% regionally.

Over the year to September 2025, employment in Heathcote increased by 1.4%, while labour force grew by 2.6%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, Rest of Vic. saw employment decrease by 0.7% and labour force fall by 0.6%. State-wide, VIC's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-Nov, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heathcote's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 5.8% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Heathcote SA2's income level is lower than average on a national basis according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in Heathcote is $46,292 and the average income stands at $57,736. In comparison, the Rest of Vic.'s median income is $48,741 and average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Heathcote would be approximately $51,921 (median) and $64,757 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Heathcote all fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.1% of the community earns within the $400 - 799 range (1,562 individuals), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.3%. While housing costs are modest, allowing for 86.8% of income to be retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Heathcote is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heathcote's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 96.4% houses and 3.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 95.2% houses and 4.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heathcote stood at 51.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.8% and rented ones at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,600. The median weekly rent figure in Heathcote was $260, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $320. Nationally, Heathcote's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Heathcote features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.1% of all households, including 20.5% couples with children, 34.3% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Heathcote shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (31.0%). Educational participation is high at 25.8%, with 10.5% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Heathcote has 13 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together offer 104 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents typically located 1982 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 14 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heathcote is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent across Heathcote, with various health conditions significantly impacting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 49% (~2718 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of Vic's 52.9% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (14.7%) and mental health issues (9.7%), while 55.4% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic.

Heathcote has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.6% (1588 people), compared to Rest of Vic's 24.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Heathcote is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Heathcote was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 86.0% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home as of the 2016 Census. The main religion in Heathcote is Christianity, comprising 49.5% of people, compared to 39.3% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.0%), Australian (30.2%), and Irish (11.6%).

Notably, Scottish (9.4%) and Maltese (0.7%) are overrepresented in Heathcote compared to the regional averages of 10.1% and 0.6%, respectively, while German is nearly equally represented at 3.7%.

Heathcote ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Heathcote is 52 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and also notably above the national norm of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic., the 55 - 64 cohort is over-represented in Heathcote at 17.4%, while the 15 - 24 age group is under-represented at 7.5%. The proportion of the 55 - 64 cohort is well above the national average of 11.2%. Between 2021 and the present, the population of the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 9.2% to 11.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Heathcote, with the strongest projected growth in the 35 to 44 age group at 49%, adding 304 residents to reach 928. The 55 to 64 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 1% (13 people).