Tongala

Tongala has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

By May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Tongala was around 1,949. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 1,973 people, indicating a drop of 24 individuals (1.2%). AreaSearch arrived at this estimate after examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validating 41 new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was calculated as 17.4 persons per square kilometer. Compared to its SA3 area, Tongala performed better with a decline of 1.2% versus -2.1%. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in recent periods for Tongala.

AreaSearch's projections are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. For years 2032 to 2041, growth rates by age group are applied across all areas. According to these projections, the suburb is expected to experience an above median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with a projected increase of 343 persons by 2041, representing a total gain of 17.6% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tongala is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Tongala had approximately five new homes approved annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, around 29 homes were approved, with six more in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to population change.

Average new home construction value was $391,000, higher than regional levels. In FY-26, $7.7 million in commercial development approvals were recorded. Compared to Rest of Vic., Tongala had about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranked in the 30th percentile nationally for buyer choices. New construction consisted entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining Tongala's low-density character.

The area is estimated to have 554 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Tongala is projected to grow by 343 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Tongala has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Key projects include Shepparton Line Upgrade, Regional Housing Fund, Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, and Victoria to NSW Interconnector West (VNI West). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Tongala maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Tongala's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of December 2025, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. In that month, 906 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 0.5% lower than Regional Vic.'s 3.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Census responses showed 13.2% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors included agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Tongala had a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.2 times Regional Vic.'s level.

Conversely, construction employed only 6.5% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 5.1%, and employment declined by 6.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Tongala's employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.1% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Tongala's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Tongala's median income is $44,139 and average income is $50,928. This is lower than Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Applying a Wage Price Index growth rate of 9.62% from financial year ending June 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,385 (median) and $55,827 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, Tongala's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 14th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.4% of locals (592 people) earn between $800 and $1,499 annually, differing from regional patterns where earnings between $1,500 and $2,999 dominate with 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.8% income retention, Tongala's total disposable income ranks at the 19th percentile nationally.

Tongala is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Tongala, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tongala was at 37.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.4% and rented dwellings at 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,127, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure for Tongala was recorded at $200, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Tongala's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tongala features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 26.5% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional Vic. average.

Educational outcomes in Tongala fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (33.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 1.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tongala has two operational public transport stops. These are served by two separate routes, offering a total of 22 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically residing 603 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, primarily using cars (92%), while 6% walk. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 13.2% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages three trips daily across all routes, resulting in approximately eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tongala is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tongala faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 917 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis, affecting 10.9%, and mental health issues, impacting 8.5% of residents. Conversely, 62.6% report having no medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age population health is notably challenging due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 23.9% of residents aged 65 and over (465 people), with senior health outcomes generally in line with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Tongala placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tongala's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.5% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (91.8%), and speaking English only at home (96.6%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Tongala, comprising 46.2% of the population. Islam is notably underrepresented compared to Regional Vic., with 0.8% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (37.6%), English (31.2%), and Scottish (8.7%). Dutch (1.8%) and Filipino (1.5%) are overrepresented in Tongala compared to the regional averages of 1.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Lebanese, at 0.3%, is also slightly overrepresented compared to Regional Vic.'s 0.1%.

Tongala's median age exceeds the national pattern

Tongala's median age is 41 years, which is lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38 years. The percentage of Tongala residents aged 5-14 is 13.4%, higher than Regional Vic.'s figure. However, the 35-44 age group makes up only 10.4% of Tongala's population. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group grew from 10.7% to 12.0%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 6.7% to 7.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group decreased from 11.9% to 10.1%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Tongala's age profile by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 48%, adding 107 residents to reach 334. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 cohorts.