Tongala

Tongala has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of Tongala as of Feb 2026 is around 2040. This figure reflects an increase of 67 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1973. The change is inferred from the resident population estimate of 1930 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 18.2 persons per square kilometer. Tongala's growth rate of 3.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 1.5%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb of Tongala expected to grow by 340 persons to reach a total population of 2380 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.3% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tongala is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Tongala recorded around 5 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 29 homes. In FY26 so far, 4 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years suggests new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $391,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. There have also been $7.7 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character. Comparatively, Tongala has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person compared to Rest of Vic., and it places among the 30th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This means there are more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing properties.

The national average is higher, indicating Tongala's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, preserving the area's low density nature. This emphasis on detached housing attracts space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 556 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Tongala adding 230 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tongala has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No changes can affect a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Shepparton Line Upgrade, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, and Victoria to NSW Interconnector West (VNI West). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Tongala has been broadly consistent with national averages

Tongala has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025910 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Tongala matches Regional Vic.'s figure of 61.5%. Census responses show that only 13.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Notably, Tongala has a high concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average.

However, construction is under-represented, with only 6.5% of Tongala's workforce compared to 10.4% in Regional Vic.. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 5.0%, while employment declined by 6.0%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tongala's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.1% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tongala had a median taxpayer income of $44,139 and an average income of $50,928 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Regional Vic. reporting a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $47,780 (median) and $55,130 (average). The 2021 Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Tongala fall between the 14th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data indicates that 30.4% of Tongala's population (620 individuals) earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is dominant at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.8% income retention, Tongala's total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Tongala is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Tongala, as per the most recent Census, 89.8% of dwellings were houses while 10.1% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is similar to Regional Vic., which had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tongala stood at 37.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 39.4% and rented dwellings accounting for 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,127, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Tongala was recorded at $200 compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Tongala's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tongala features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 26.5% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average in Regional Vic.

Educational outcomes in Tongala fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 10.2% and certificates for 33.0%. Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 1.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tongala has two operational public transport stops. These are served by two distinct routes, offering a total of 22 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is considered limited, with residents usually located 603 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, predominantly using cars (92%). Walking accounts for 6% of commutes. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 13.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. All routes combined run approximately three trips daily, resulting in around 11 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tongala is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tongala faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~960 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (8.5%). Conversely, 62.6% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.4% of residents aged 65 and over (477 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but are broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Tongala placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tongala had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 91.5% citizens, 91.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.2%. Islam's representation was over twice that of Regional Vic., at 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (37.6%), English (31.2%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Dutch (1.8%) Filipino (1.5%), and Lebanese (0.3%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Tongala's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Tongala is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. In comparison to Regional Vic., the 5-14 age group is notably higher at 13.6% locally, while the 45-54 age group is lower at 9.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 11.9%, whereas the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 11.9% to 9.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Tongala. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow by 101 people (41%) from 246 to 348. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age groups are expected to decrease in population.