Tongala

Tongala has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The estimated population of Tongala as of February 2026 is around 2,040 people. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,973 people. The increase of 67 people (3.4%) is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,930 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 18.2 persons per square kilometer. Tongala's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area, which was 1.5%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, an above median population growth is projected nationally for non-metropolitan areas. The suburb of Tongala is expected to expand by 354 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 12.2% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tongala is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Tongala has averaged around 5 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 29 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved so far in FY-26. The average value of these dwellings is $391,000, slightly above the regional average.

This suggests a focus on quality developments. In terms of commercial approvals, $7.7 million has been registered this financial year, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of Vic., Tongala shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person, placing it among the 30th percentile nationally. This suggests limited choices for buyers and supports demand for existing homes.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 556 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Future projections estimate Tongala will add 250 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tongala has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No changes can influence a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. A total of 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact this area. Key projects include Shepparton Line Upgrade, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, and Victoria to NSW Interconnector West (VNI West). The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.3%, Tongala has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Tongala has a diverse workforce with both white and blue-collar jobs, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate is 3.3%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 902 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to the regional average at 61.4%. According to Census responses, only 13.2% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Tongala has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 6.5% compared to the regional average of 10.4%. The area may have limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Tongala's labour force decreased by 10.5%, while employment declined by 12.1%, leading to a 1.7 percentage point increase in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decline of 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Tongala's employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.1% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolations from industry-specific projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tongala had a median taxpayer income of $44,139 and an average income of $50,928 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $50,954 and average income being $62,728. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $47,780 and average income around $55,130, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Tongala's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 14th and 20th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 dominates in Tongala with 30.4% of residents (620 people), differing from broader areas where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.8% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Tongala is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tongala's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tongala stood at 37.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.4% and rented ones at 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,127, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Tongala was $200, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Tongala's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tongala features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 26.5% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Tongala fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (33.0%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.8% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 1.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 1.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tongala has two operational public transport stops. These are served by two distinct routes, offering a total of 22 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is considered limited, with residents typically residing 603 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars are the primary mode of transportation at 92%, with 6% walking. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 13.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages three trips per day, equating to roughly eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tongala is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tongala faces substantial health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Only approximately 47% of Tongala's total population (~960 people) has private health cover, compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (8.5%), while 62.6% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in the rest of Victoria. Tongala's working-age population faces significant health challenges with high chronic condition rates. The area has 23.3% of residents aged 65 and over (475 people), with senior health outcomes presenting some challenges but broadly in line with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Tongala placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tongala's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.5% of its population being citizens, 91.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Tongala, comprising 46.2% of people. Islam was overrepresented compared to the regional average, making up 0.8% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (37.6%), English (31.2%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Dutch ethnicity was overrepresented at 1.8%, Filipino at 1.5%, and Lebanese at 0.3%, compared to regional averages of 1.7%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively.

Tongala's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Tongala is 40 years, which is slightly lower than the Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but higher than Australia's median of 38. The percentage of people aged 5-14 in Tongala is notably higher at 13.7%, compared to the Rest of Vic.'s average. Conversely, the percentage of 35-44 year-olds is lower at 10.6%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 10.7% to 11.9%, while the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 11.9% to 10.0%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Tongala. The population aged 25 to 34 is expected to expand by 101 people (40%), reaching 352 from the current 250. Meanwhile, populations in the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age groups are forecasted to decline.