Tongala

Tongala has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Tongala's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 2,036. This figure reflects an increase of 63 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,973. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,930 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 18.2 persons per square kilometer. Tongala's growth rate of 3.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 1.4%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, the Tongala statistical area (Lv2) is expected to expand by 344 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 12.1% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tongala is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tongala averaged around 5 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 29 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. The population decline over recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

The average value of new dwellings is $391,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. This year, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Comparatively, Tongala shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person when compared to Rest of Vic., and it places among the 30th percentile nationally for areas assessed, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This level is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, preserving Tongala's low density nature. The area attracts space-seeking buyers with its emphasis on detached housing. As of now, there are an estimated 556 people per dwelling approval in the area, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections estimate that Tongala will add 246 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tongala has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence a region's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects impacting this area. Notable initiatives include Shepparton Line Upgrade, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, and Victoria to NSW Interconnector West (VNI West).

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.3%, Tongala has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Tongala's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.3%.

This is 0.4% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, with workforce participation similar at 57.4%. Residents are primarily employed in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Tongala specializes particularly in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 6.5% versus the regional average of 10.4%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Tongala's labour force decreased by 10.6%, while employment declined by 12.1%, resulting in a 1.6 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced milder declines in employment and labour force with a marginal rise in unemployment rate. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year to November 2025, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, with employment growth outpacing the national average of 0.14%. Job and Skills Australia's forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tongala's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tongala has a median taxpayer income of $44,139 and an average income of $50,928 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $47,780 (median) and $55,130 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Tongala all fall between the 14th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $800 - $1,499 bracket dominates with 30.4% of residents (618 people), unlike the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest, with 87.8% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Tongala is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Tongala, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tongala stood at 37.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (39.4%) or rented (23.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,127, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent was $200, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Tongala's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tongala features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 26.5% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Tongala fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (33.0%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 1.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates two operational public transport stops in Tongala. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with two distinct routes serving them collectively facilitating 22 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is assessed as limited, with residents typically situated 603 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tongala is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tongala faces significant health challenges, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 47% (~958 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (8.5%). About 62.6% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of Vic's 62.2%. Tongala has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.5% (478 people), compared to Rest of Vic's 25.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Tongala placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tongala's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.5% of its population being citizens, 91.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Tongala, comprising 46.2% of people. Islam's representation was notably higher than the regional average, with 0.8% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 0.4%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (37.6%), English (31.2%), and Scottish (8.7%). Dutch (1.8%) and Filipino (1.5%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively, while Lebanese showed a notable divergence with 0.3%.

Tongala's median age exceeds the national pattern

Tongala's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic average of 43 but exceeds the national average of 38. The 5-14 age group comprises 13.9% of Tongala's population, higher than the Rest of Vic figure. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort makes up 10.0% of Tongala's population, lower than the Rest of Vic percentage. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 15 to 24 age group grew from 10.7% to 12.0%. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 11.9% to 10.5%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Tongala's age profile by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 48%, adding 114 residents to reach 355. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 cohorts.