Tongala

Tongala has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Tongala's estimated population is around 2,065, reflecting a growth of 92 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas, applied to Tongala by AreaSearch in June 2024, was 1,960 residents. This increase was driven mainly by overseas migration. Between 2022 and 2041, Tongala's population is projected to grow by 349 persons, a 10.8% increase over the 17-year period. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas released in 2024, with adjustments made using VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by ABS data. The suburb's population growth rate exceeds that of its SA3 area and SA4 region.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of non-metropolitan areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to expand by 349 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting with an increase of 10.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tongala according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, derived from statistical area data, indicates Tongala averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY21 and FY25, around 56 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY26. The population decline in recent years suggests that the new supply has likely been meeting demand, providing good choices for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $391,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year, $502,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Tongala shows 53.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering ample choice for buyers. New development consists of 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 130 people per approval, Tongala reflects a low density area. Future projections estimate Tongala adding 222 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Tongala has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects impacting this region. Notable initiatives are: Shepparton Line Upgrade, Regional Housing Fund (Victoria), Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, and North East Rail Line Upgrade. Relevant details for these projects follow.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Tongala maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Tongala has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent.

As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.6%. This is lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, with a participation rate similar to the regional average at 57.4%. Key employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Agriculture, forestry & fishing have particularly high levels of employment, at 2.2 times the regional average.

However, construction has limited presence with 6.5% employment compared to the regional average of 10.4%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. From June 2024 to June 2025, Tongala's labour force decreased by 14.4%, with employment decreasing by 15.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Tongala. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tongala's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 12.1% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Tongala's median taxpayer income was $44,139 and average income was $50,928 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average). By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $49,506 and average income will be around $57,121. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Tongala fall between the 14th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 30.4% of locals (627 people) earn between $800 - 1,499, differing from broader area trends where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.8% income retention, Tongala's total disposable income ranks at just the 19th percentile nationally.

Tongala is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Tongala, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 89.3% houses and 10.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tongala stood at 37.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.4% and rented ones at 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,127, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Weekly rent in Tongala was $200, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Tongala's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,127 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tongala features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 26.5% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Tongala fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (33.0%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.8% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 1.1% in tertiary education.

St Patrick's School and Tongala Primary School serve a total of 228 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 981). Both schools focus on primary education; secondary options are available nearby. The area has fewer school places per 100 residents (11.0) compared to the regional average (16.3), with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows two active stops in Tongala offering mixed bus services. These stops are covered by six routes, collectively running 39 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated limited with residents typically located 603 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages five trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately nineteen weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tongala is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tongala faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

The area has a low private health cover rate of approximately 47% (around 971 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.9% and 8.5% of residents respectively. About 62.6% of Tongala's population claims to be free from medical ailments, similar to the 62.2% figure for Rest of Vic. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.2% (479 people), compared to Rest of Vic.'s 25.1%. Health outcomes among Tongala's senior residents present some challenges, largely mirroring the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Tongala placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tongala was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 91.5% of its population being citizens, 91.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Tongala is Christianity, comprising 46.2% of the population. Islam is overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, making up 0.8% of Tongala's population versus 0.4%.

The top three represented ancestral groups are Australian (37.6%), English (31.2%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Dutch (1.8%) and Filipino (1.5%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Tongala compared to regional averages of 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. Additionally, Lebanese ethnicity is slightly overrepresented at 0.3%.

Tongala hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tongala's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic. average of 43 but exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group constitutes 13.8% of Tongala's population, higher than the Rest of Vic., while the 35-44 cohort makes up 10.0%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 12.0%, and the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 11.9% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Tongala's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 45%, adding 109 residents to reach 353. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age groups.