Lockington - Gunbower

Lockington - Gunbower has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Lockington-Gunbower's population is around 3,980 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 53 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,927 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,960 from the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2.4 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Lockington-Gunbower has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.3%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 52.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Lockington-Gunbower is forecast to increase by 1,130 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 27.9% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lockington - Gunbower according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lockington - Gunbower has recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 58 homes. In FY26 so far, 6 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 was 1.9, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. This has eased to -0.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting better supply availability. Development projects averaged $313,000 in construction value.

There have also been $1.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Lockington - Gunbower records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. New construction has been completely comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 480 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Lockington - Gunbower will gain 1,110 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Lockington - Gunbower has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include AFL Breaking New Ground at St Joseph's College Echuca, Yallarah Estate, Rich River Lakes Estate, and Kilkerrin Lakes Estate. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Lockington - Gunbower significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Lockington-Gunbower has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 1.4% as of September 2025. It has 2,178 residents in work, which is 2.4% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 68.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

Moderately, 19.2% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing (strongly specialized), health care & social assistance (limited presence at 13.0%), and construction. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 10.2% and employment by 10.7%, raising unemployment by 0.5%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Applying these projections to Lockington-Gunbower's mix suggests local employment growth of 5.1% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Lockington - Gunbower SA2 was $47,667 and the average was $56,197 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages; Rest of Vic.'s median income was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $51,600 and the average $60,833, accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census ranked Lockington - Gunbower's incomes modestly, between the 30th and 30th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. Income brackets indicated that 33.5% of residents (1,333 individuals) fell within the $1,500-$2,999 range, reflecting patterns seen in surrounding regions where 30.3% similarly occupied this range. Housing costs were manageable with 89.5% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 37th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Lockington - Gunbower is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lockington-Gunbower's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 98.6% houses and 1.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lockington-Gunbower stood at 45.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.8% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,320, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in the area was $200, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Lockington-Gunbower's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,320 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lockington - Gunbower has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.8% of all households, including 32.0% couples with children, 35.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Lockington - Gunbower faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (32.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.0% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lockington-Gunbower has five operational public transport stops. Three distinct routes serve these stops, offering a total of 24 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents usually situated 359 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most inhabitants commute outward using personal vehicles at a rate of 91%. Walking accounts for 6% of commuting modes. On average, each dwelling owns 2.2 vehicles, surpassing regional averages.

According to the 2021 Census, 19.2% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop.

Lockington - Gunbower's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Lockington-Gunbower's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~1,890 people), compared to 50.5% across Rest of Vic., and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 10.2%) and mental health issues (8.5%), while 65.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.4% of residents aged 65 and over (813 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic., with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Lockington - Gunbower placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lockington-Gunbower, surveyed in Aug-Sep 2016, had low cultural diversity: 88.5% were citizens, 94.2% born in Australia, 97.7% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion (51.9%), compared to 47.3% regionally. Ancestry wise, Australian (37.6%) and English (31.4%) were highest, with Irish at 9.3%.

Scottish (9.2%) was overrepresented vs regional average (8.8%). Welsh (0.5%) and German (3.1%) also showed minor differences from regional averages of 0.4% and 3.5%, respectively.

Lockington - Gunbower hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Lockington - Gunbower's median age was 45 years in 2021, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and considerably older than the national norm of 38. The 55-64 cohort was notably over-represented at 15.3%, while the 75-84 year-olds were under-represented at 5.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group grew from 10.6% to 12.2%, and the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 12.4% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 16.6% to 15.3%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.5% to 13.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Lockington - Gunbower's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 261 people (72%) from 364 to 626. In contrast, the 55 to 64 cohort shows minimal growth of just 4% (21 people).