Lockington - Gunbower
Statistical Area - sa2

Lockington - Gunbower has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Lockington-Gunbower's population, as of Aug 2025, is around 3,975. This represents an increase of 48 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,927. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 3,960 in June 2024 and additional validated addresses since then. This results in a density ratio of 2.4 persons per square kilometer. Lockington-Gunbower's growth rate of 1.2% since the 2021 Census exceeded its SA3 area's (-0.4%), indicating it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.4% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Lockington-Gunbower is forecasted to increase by 1,130 persons based on the latest population numbers, marking a total increase of 28.1% over the 17-year period. This anticipates significant population growth in the top quartile of regional areas nationally.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lockington - Gunbower according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lockington - Gunbower has averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 58 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and an additional two approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.9 new residents have arrived per new home each year over the past five financial years, indicating a balanced supply and demand, though this has moderated to -0.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. New properties are constructed at an average value of $572,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. This year alone, $1.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, highlighting the area's residential nature.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Lockington - Gunbower has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings. This activity is also below the national average, indicating an established area with potential planning limitations. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With approximately 480 people estimated per dwelling approval, it reflects a quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Lockington - Gunbower will gain around 1,115 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Lockington - Gunbower has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 24thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to influence the region. Notable projects include AFL Breaking New Ground - St Joseph's College Echuca, Yallarah Estate (Echuca West Precinct), Rich River Lakes Estate, and Kilkerrin Lakes Estate. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Lockington - Gunbower ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Lockington-Gunbower has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse industry representation, and an unemployment rate of 1.2% as of June 2025. The area employs 2,110 residents, with an unemployment rate 2.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 62.7% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Key industries are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and construction. Employment is heavily specialized in agriculture, forestry & fishing (3.9 times the regional level), but under-represented in health care & social assistance (13.0% vs Rest of Vic.'s 16.8%). Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data. From June 2024 to June 2025, Lockington-Gunbower's labour force decreased by 14.3%, with employment down 14.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points.

By comparison, Rest of Vic.'s employment declined by 0.9% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lockington-Gunbower's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.1% over five years and 11.5% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Lockington - Gunbower had a median income of $45,085 and an average income of $53,210. This is lower than the national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average) for Rest of Vic. Assuming a 10.11% increase based on Wage Price Index growth since FY2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $49,643 (median) and $58,590 (average). Census data places Lockington - Gunbower's household, family, and personal incomes between the 30th and 31st percentiles. Around 33.5% of residents (1,331 individuals) fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 income range, similar to metropolitan regions at 30.3%. Housing costs allow for retention of 89.5%, but disposable income is below average at the 37th percentile, with the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 4th decile.

Lockington - Gunbower is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lockington-Gunbower's dwelling structure in the latest Census showed 98.6% houses and 1.5% other dwellings, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 45.6%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 39.8% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,320, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300, while the median weekly rent was $200, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s figure of $250. Nationally, Lockington-Gunbower's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national average of $375.

Lockington - Gunbower has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 76.8% of all households, including 32.0% couples with children, 35.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.2%, consisting of 21.1% lone person households and 1.9% group households. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Lockington - Gunbower faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.3%, substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.3%, followed by graduate diplomas at 1.6% and postgraduate qualifications at 1.4%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 32.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.0% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education. Educational provision includes Lockington Consolidated School and Gunbower Primary School, collectively serving 183 students. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 959) with balanced educational opportunities. Both schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Limited local school capacity (4.6 places per 100 residents vs 16.6 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows five active stops operating in Lockington - Gunbower area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling nine individual routes. This network facilitates 40 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 359 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages five trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately eight weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lockington - Gunbower is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lockington-Gunbower faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 47% (~1,856 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.2%) and mental health issues (8.5%). 65.6% report having no medical ailments, compared to 62.2% in Rest of Vic.. The area has 20.4% (811 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 25.1% in Rest of Vic..

The latest Census data sees Lockington - Gunbower placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lockington-Gunbower showed cultural diversity below the average, with 88.5% citizens, 94.2% born in Australia, and 97.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 51.9%, compared to 53.0% regionally. Top ancestry groups were Australian (37.6%), English (31.4%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was higher than regional average at 9.2%. Welsh and German ancestries stood at 0.5% and 3.1%, respectively, matching regional averages.

Lockington - Gunbower hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lockington-Gunbower's median age in 2021 was 45 years, which is slightly higher than Victoria's average of 43 and considerably older than Australia's national norm of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic.'s average, Lockington-Gunbower has a notable over-representation of the 55-64 age cohort (15.8% locally) while the 75-84 year-olds are under-represented (5.4%). Between 2021 and now, the proportion of 15 to 24-year-olds has increased from 10.6% to 11.8%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 14.5% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Lockington-Gunbower's age profile. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 269 people (76%) from 356 to 626. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort shows minimal growth of just 1% (5 people).