Lockington - Gunbower

Lockington - Gunbower has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Lockington-Gunbower's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 3950 as of May 2026. This figure indicates a growth of 23 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3927. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 3950 in June 2025 and an additional 13 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 2.4 persons per square kilometer. Lockington-Gunbower's growth rate of 0.6% since the Census exceeded its SA3 area's decline of 2.1%. Natural growth contributed approximately 57.5% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Lockington-Gunbower is projected to increase by 1053 persons, reflecting a total increase of 26.7% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lockington - Gunbower according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lockington - Gunbower averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 58 homes were approved, with a further 7 approved in FY26 as of now. On average, 1.9 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years. However, recent data shows this has moderated to -0.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $313,000. This year, $1.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a residential focus in the area. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Lockington - Gunbower has about three-quarters the building activity per person, placing it among the 36th percentile nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, driving interest in existing homes.

The area's recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes. As of now, there are approximately 480 people per dwelling approval in the area. Looking ahead, Lockington - Gunbower is projected to grow by 1,053 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Lockington - Gunbower has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects that could impact this region. Key projects include AFL Breaking New Ground - St Joseph's College Echuca, Yallarah Estate, Rich River Lakes Estate, and Kilkerrin Lakes Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lockington - Gunbower demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Lockington-Gunbower has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 1.2% as of December 2025. The area's unemployment rate is 2.5 percentage points lower than Regional Victoria's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Lockington-Gunbower stands at 68.5%, compared to Regional Victoria's 61.0%.

According to Census responses, 19.2% of residents work from home. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.9 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, at 13.0% compared to Regional Victoria's 16.8%.

Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 5.0%, and employment declined by 5.1%, leading to a slight increase in unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Victoria saw employment fall by 0.6% and labour force contract by 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lockington-Gunbower's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.5% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows that Lockington - Gunbower SA2 has lower income compared to national averages. The median income is $47,667 and the average is $56,197. In Regional Vic., the median income is $50,954 and the average is $62,728. Based on a 9.62% growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $52,253 (median) and $61,603 (average). Census 2021 data shows Lockington - Gunbower's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 30th and 40th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 33.5% of the population falls within the $1,500-$2,999 range. Housing costs are manageable with 89.5% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 37th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Lockington - Gunbower is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Lockington - Gunbower, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 98.6% houses and 1.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings, compared to Regional Victoria's 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lockington - Gunbower stood at 45.6%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 39.8% and rented properties accounting for 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,320 as of the Census date, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $200. In comparison, Regional Victoria's average mortgage repayments were $1,430 and weekly rents were $285. Nationally, Lockington - Gunbower's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lockington - Gunbower has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.8 percent of all households, including 32.0 percent couples with children, 35.2 percent couples without children, and 9.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.2 percent, with lone person households at 21.1 percent and group households comprising 1.9 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Lockington - Gunbower faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate stands at 14.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 11.3% of residents holding one. Graduate diplomas and postgraduate qualifications follow, at 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ possessing them.

Advanced diplomas account for 10.2%, while certificates make up 32.3%. Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.0% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows five active stops in operation within Lockington - Gunbower. These stops are served by three distinct routes, offering a total of 24 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically situated 359 meters from the nearest stop. As predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward; cars remain the primary mode at 91%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 19.2% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop.

Lockington - Gunbower's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Lockington - Gunbower residents, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~1,876 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.2%) and mental health issues (8.5%). 65.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic.. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.9% of residents aged 65 and over (864 people), lower than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Lockington - Gunbower placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lockington-Gunbower has a lower cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home (94.2%, 97.7%). Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 51.9% compared to Regional Vic's 47.3%. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (37.6%), English (31.4%), and Irish (9.3%), with Australians being more prevalent than the regional average of 29.6%.

Notable differences include Scottish representation at 9.2% compared to 8.8%, Welsh at 0.5% versus 0.4%, and German at 3.1% versus 3.5%.

Lockington - Gunbower hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Lockington-Gunbower's median age is 45 years, which is slightly higher than Regional Victoria's median age of 43 and considerably older than Australia's national norm of 38. Comparing Lockington-Gunbower to the regional average, the 55-64 age group is notably over-represented at 15.4%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.6%. Between 2021 and now, the percentage of the population aged 65 to 74 has increased from 12.4% to 14.3%, and the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 10.6% to 12.2%. However, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 14.5% to 13.2%, and the 55 to 64 age group has dropped from 16.6% to 15.4%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Lockington-Gunbower's age profile. The 25 to 34 age cohort is expected to grow significantly by 240 people (71%), increasing from 339 to 580. In contrast, the 55 to 64 age group is projected to show minimal growth of just 3%, adding only 15 people.