Lockington - Gunbower
Statistical Area - sa2

Lockington - Gunbower has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Lockington-Gunbower's population is approximately 3,980 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 53 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,927. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 3,960, with an additional 14 validated new addresses contributing to this growth. The population density is around 2.4 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Lockington-Gunbower has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.3%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration drove much of this growth, accounting for approximately 52.4% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, based on 2022 data, for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas until 2041. Future forecasts anticipate significant population increases in the top quartile of regional areas nationwide, with Lockington-Gunbower expected to increase by 1,130 persons by 2041, representing a total increase of 27.9% over 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lockington - Gunbower according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lockington-Gunbower has averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 58 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 1.9 people have moved to the area per year for each dwelling built over these five years. However, this ratio has moderated to -0.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $313,000. In FY26, $1.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential focus. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Lockington-Gunbower experiences about three-quarters the building activity per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 36th percentile among assessed areas, resulting in relatively limited buyer choice and interest in existing homes.

This lower level reflects market maturity and potential development constraints. Recent building activity comprises solely standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a preference for family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is approximately 480 people. Looking ahead, Lockington-Gunbower is projected to grow by 1,110 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Lockington - Gunbower has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 24thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include AFL Breaking New Ground - St Joseph's College Echuca, Yallarah Estate, Rich River Lakes Estate, and Kilkerrin Lakes Estate. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lockington - Gunbower demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Lockington-Gunbower has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 1.2% as of June 2025. It employs 2,110 residents, with an unemployment rate 2.6% lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 62.7%, compared to the Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing (3.9 times the regional level), health care & social assistance (13.0%), and construction. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 14.3% and employment declined by 14.5%, increasing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest Lockington-Gunbower's employment could grow by approximately 5.1% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 14.3% while employment declined by 14.5%, resulting in the unemployment rate rise by 0.3 percentage points. This compares to Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Lockington - Gunbower. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lockington - Gunbower's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately increase by 5.1%% over five years and 11.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Lockington - Gunbower is lower than average nationally. The median income is $45,085 and the average is $53,210. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Lockington - Gunbower would be approximately $50,567 (median) and $59,680 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in Lockington - Gunbower, between the 30th and 31st percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 33.5% of the population (1,333 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to metropolitan regions where 30.3% occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 89.5% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 37th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Lockington - Gunbower is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lockington - Gunbower's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.6% houses and 1.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.3% houses and 9.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lockington - Gunbower stood at 45.6%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 39.8% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,320, above Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in the area was $200, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $250. Nationally, Lockington - Gunbower's median mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,320 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lockington - Gunbower has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.8% of all households, including 32.0% couples with children, 35.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Lockington - Gunbower faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.3%, significantly below the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 11.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (32.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.0% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education. The area has two schools: Lockington Consolidated School and Gunbower Primary School, serving a total of 183 students. These schools focus exclusively on primary education, with ICSEA scores indicating typical Australian school conditions (959). Secondary education options are available in nearby areas due to limited local capacity (4.6 places per 100 residents vs the regional average of 16.6), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows five active stops operating within Lockington - Gunbower area. These stops offer a mix of bus services. Nine individual routes serve these stops, collectively providing forty weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 359 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages five trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately eight weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lockington - Gunbower is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lockington-Gunbower faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,858 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.2% and 8.5% of residents respectively. However, 65.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.2% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 20.4% of residents aged 65 and over (812 people), which is lower than the 25.1% in Rest of Vic..

The latest Census data sees Lockington - Gunbower placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lockington-Gunbower, surveyed in June 2016, showed low cultural diversity: 88.5% citizens, 94.2% born in Australia, 97.7% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion, at 51.9%, slightly below Victoria's average of 53.0%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (37.6%), English (31.4%), and Irish (9.3%) were predominant.

Notably, Scottish ancestry was higher than regional averages (9.2% vs 8.4%), Welsh was slightly above average (0.5% vs 0.3%), and German matched regional levels at 3.1%.

Lockington - Gunbower hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lockington-Gunbower's median age in 2021 was 45 years, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and considerably older than Australia's national norm of 38. The 55-64 cohort was notably over-represented at 15.8% compared to the Rest of Vic. average, while the 75-84 age group was under-represented at 5.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.6% to 11.8%, whereas the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.5% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Lockington-Gunbower's age profile. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow significantly, expanding by 269 people (76%) from 356 to 626. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort shows minimal growth of just 1% (4 people).