Gannawarra

Gannawarra has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Gannawarra's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 6711 as of November 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 8 individuals (0.1%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 6719 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6582 in June 2024 and an additional 71 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1.9 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person. Gannawarra's minimal decline of 0.1% since the 2021 census was marginally better than the SA3 area (-0.3%). Overseas migration primarily drove population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate a decline of 1622 persons by 2041, with the area's population expected to decrease overall. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to increase by 4 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gannawarra, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Gannawarra averaged approximately 26 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25134 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved so far in FY-26. The average construction cost value of these new properties is $320,000.

In the current financial year, commercial development approvals totalled $13.7 million. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Gannawarra has shown moderately higher new home approvals, with 25.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. All newly constructed properties have been detached houses, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The population-to-dwelling-approval ratio is estimated at 383 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a quiet development environment. Population growth is expected to remain stable or decline, potentially reducing housing pressure and creating opportunities for buyers in the area.

Gannawarra has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Kerang Solar & BESS Hybrid, Victoria to NSW Interconnector West (VNI West), Kerang District Health Facility Upgrade (CSSD, PACU, and Operating Theatre Equipment), and Koorangie Energy Storage System (KESS).

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Employment conditions in Gannawarra demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Gannawarra has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 1.5% as of September 2025. There are 3,141 residents employed, with the unemployment rate being 2.2% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is at 52.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Gannawarra has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share of 4.2 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance has limited presence at 11.6% compared to the regional rate of 16.8%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data.

In the 12 months prior, labour force decreased by 4.2%, employment fell by 2.8%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.7% and labour force contracted by 0.6%. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Gannawarra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Gannawarra SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $42,806 and an average of $49,897. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Gannawarra would be approximately $48,011 (median) and $55,964 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Gannawarra fall between the 8th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 28.3% of individuals earn between $800 - 1,499, while the broader area has a higher percentage earning between $1,500 - 2,999 at 30.3%. Housing costs are modest with 92.0% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Gannawarra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Gannawarra, as per the latest Census data, 96.8% of dwellings were houses while 3.1% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 90.7% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gannawarra stood at 57.9%, with mortgaged properties at 25.9% and rented ones at 16.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $997, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. The median weekly rent in Gannawarra was $180, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Gannawarra's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Gannawarra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.8% of all households, including 23.1% that are couples with children, 36.6% that are couples without children, and 7.5% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.2%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Gannawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.8%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.4%) and certificates (29.5%). A total of 24.6% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 10.5% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

A substantial 24.6% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Gannawarra shows 18 active transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 17 individual routes that collectively provide 102 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 961 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 14 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Gannawarra is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Gannawarra faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, covering around 3,093 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (12.1%) and asthma (9%). About 60.8% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly below the Rest of Vic.'s 64.1%. Gannawarra has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.4%, or around 2,041 people, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 24.0%.

The latest Census data sees Gannawarra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Gannawarra, surveyed in 2016, had low cultural diversity: 89.5% were citizens, 94.0% born in Australia, and 97.4% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 52.8%, slightly below Rest of Vic's 53.2%. Ancestry-wise, top groups were Australian (36.1%), English (33.7%), Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Scottish (8.7% vs regional 8.0%) and Dutch (1.3% vs 0.9%) were overrepresented, while Maltese (0.4% vs 0.2%) showed a smaller difference.

Gannawarra ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Gannawarra is 52 years, significantly higher than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and also notably above the national norm of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is over-represented in Gannawarra at 16.7%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.8%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 10.0% to 10.7% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 10.9% to 10.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Gannawarra. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by -1%, adding -2 residents to reach 200, while population declines are projected for the 85+ and 25 to 34 age cohorts.