Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of May 2026, the estimated population of Swan Hill is around 10,783. This reflects a decrease of 403 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,186. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,750, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 228 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 85 persons per square kilometer. Swan Hill's -3.6% decline since census is within 0.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (-2.8%), indicating similar population challenges across the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting with a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate an overall population decline of 754 persons by 2041. However, growth is anticipated in specific age cohorts, led by the 45 to 54 age group, projected to increase by 93 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Swan Hill has seen approximately 45 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling an estimated 226 homes. As of July 2022, 77 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. The population decline in recent years has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $543,000, indicating focus on the premium market and high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $20.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill shows moderately higher development activity, with 26.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period ending June 2021. This has supported good buyer choice and maintained existing property values despite a slowdown in building activity in recent years.

New developments consist of 72.0% standalone homes and 28.0% attached dwellings, preserving Swan Hill's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 352 people as of June 2021, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. With a stable or declining population expected in the future, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Swan Hill ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Swan Hill has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 1.3% as of December 2025. This rate is 2.4% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation stands at 64.7%, slightly higher than the regional average of 61.0%.

According to Census data, 6.9% of residents work from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Notably, agriculture, forestry & fishing is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety has lower representation at 5.1% compared to the regional average of 6.5%.

While local jobs exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.1%, while labour force decreased by 2.1%, leading to a 2.2 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.6% and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Swan Hill is $47,926 and average income is $57,197. This is lower than Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. Factoring in a 9.62% increase from the Wage Price Index since June 2023, estimated median income for Swan Hill as of March 2026 is approximately $52,536, with average income around $62,699. The 2021 Census places household incomes in Swan Hill between the 28th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets show that 32.9% of residents (3,547 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to metropolitan trends at 30.3%. Housing costs consume 12.2% of income on average in Swan Hill, with disposable income ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Swan Hill, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.1% houses and 16.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 87.4% houses and 12.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swan Hill was at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented dwellings at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,450. The median weekly rent figure in Swan Hill was $235, compared to Regional Vic.'s $290. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 26.5%. Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Swan Hill has 56 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 16 routes that facilitate 367 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 233 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 92%, while walking accounts for 6%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 6.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 52 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~5,337 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively. 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of the latest data (2016), 20.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,242 people), lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., and national rankings are even higher than the general population.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.1% of its population being citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Swan Hill, comprising 50.6% of the population. The most significant overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which accounted for 1.9% of the population compared to Regional Vic's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, Italian (4.7%) was overrepresented compared to regional levels (2.9%), as were Vietnamese (1.0% vs 0.2%) and Australian Aboriginal (2.9% vs 1.4%).

Swan Hill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Swan Hill's median age is 38, which is lower than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 but matches Australia's national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 15.7% of Swan Hill's population, higher than Regional Vic., while the 65-74 cohort makes up 9.6%. Post-2021 Census, the 25-34 age group rose from 14.7% to 15.7%, and the 45-54 cohort decreased from 10.1% to 9.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Swan Hill's age profile. The 45-54 group is forecasted to grow by 11% (115 people), reaching 1,118 from 1,002. Those aged 65 and above are expected to account for 56% of the population growth, with declines projected for the 0-4 and 25-34 age groups.