Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the population of Swan Hill is estimated at around 11,253 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 67 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 11,186. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 10,839 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and an additional 229 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 88 persons per square kilometer. Swan Hill's growth of 0.6% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area's growth rate of 0.2%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projections indicate an overall decline in population, with the area's population expected to shrink by 783 persons by 2041. However, growth is anticipated in specific age cohorts, led by the 35 to 44 age group projected to increase by 84 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Swan Hill had approximately 45 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 226 homes. As of FY-26, 45 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $543,000, indicating focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $20.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Swan Hill exhibits moderately higher development activity (25.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period), supporting good buyer choice and existing property values despite recent slowing building activity. The area's new development consists of 72.0% standalone homes and 28.0% attached dwellings, preserving its low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated count of 351 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance due to changes in local infrastructure. Key projects include the Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Swan Hill demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Swan Hill's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.7% as of September 2025, based on AreaSearch data aggregation. In this period, 5,479 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.1% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stood at 64.2%, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census responses indicated that only 6.9% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area showed strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, while public administration & safety had lower representation at 5.1% compared to the regional average of 6.5%.

Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Swan Hill's labour force decreased by 4.3%, while employment declined by 2.7%, leading to a 1.7 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.7% and a labour force decrease of 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Swan Hill is below the national average. The median income is $47,926 and the average income stands at $57,197. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $51,880 (median) and $61,916 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Swan Hill, between the 28th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 32.9% of residents (3,702 people), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 30.3% in the same category. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Swan Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 83.1% houses and 16.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic had 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swan Hill was at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro Vic's average of $1,430 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Swan Hill was $235, lower than Non-Metro Vic's $285 and the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Swan Hill indicates there are 56 active transport stops in operation, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 individual routes, collectively facilitating 367 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 233 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, predominantly using cars at a rate of 92%, while 6% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census, only 6.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among younger and older age cohorts alike.

Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 50% of the total population (~5,570 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively. 65.5% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of Vic.. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,318 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Rest of Vic., but higher than the national rankings for this age group.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill, as per the census data from June 2016, demonstrated lower cultural diversity compared to the national average. The population was predominantly Australian-born with English-speaking households: 85.1% were citizens, 85.9% were born in Australia, and 86.8% spoke only English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 50.6% of the population.

Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprised 1.9%, higher than the Rest of Vic's average of 0.8%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%). Italian, Vietnamese, and Australian Aboriginal populations showed significant divergence from regional averages: Italians made up 4.7% in Swan Hill versus 2.9% regionally, Vietnamese comprised 1.0% compared to 0.2%, and Australian Aboriginals accounted for 2.9% against the regional average of 1.4%.

Swan Hill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Swan Hill is 37 years, which is lower than Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 years make up 16.2% of the population, while those aged 65-74 years comprise 9.6%. Since 2021, the percentage of 25-34 year-olds has increased from 14.7% to 16.2%, while the percentage of 45-54 year-olds has decreased from 10.1% to 9.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 45-54 age cohort is expected to increase by 73 people (7%) from 1,012 to 1,086. Notably, those aged 65 and above are projected to account for 58% of total population growth in Swan Hill. Conversely, the 35-44 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.