Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census Swan Hill's population is estimated at around 11,253 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 67 people (0.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,186 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,867, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 222 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 88 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. The suburb of Swan Hill's 0.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's (-0.3%), though growth remains modest. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to shrink by 783 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 35 to 44 age group, which is projected to increase by 84 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Swan Hill has seen approximately 45 new home approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 226 homes. As of July 2021, 35 approvals have been recorded for the current financial year, FY-26. The population has declined in recent years, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $543,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, there have been $20.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill shows moderately higher development activity, with 25.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period ending June 2021.

This has maintained good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. New development consists of 72.0% standalone homes and 28.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 351 people as of June 2021, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing in the coming years, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Eleven projects identified by AreaSearch could significantly impact the local area's performance due to changes in infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Key projects include the Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Swan Hill shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Swan Hill's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate as of June 2025 was 2.3%, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

The area had 5,504 residents employed, with a participation rate of 59.8%. Key employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing stood out with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety had lower representation at 5.1% versus the regional average of 6.5%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Swan Hill's labour force decreased by 4.1%, employment declined by 3.4%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.7 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in Sep-22, project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Swan Hill is below the national average. The median assessed income is $47,926 and the average income stands at $57,197. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $48,741 and the average income is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Swan Hill would be approximately $53,754 (median) and $64,152 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census data, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Swan Hill, between the 28th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 32.9% of residents (3,702 people), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 30.3% in the same category. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Swan Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.1% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 16.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.7% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swan Hill stood at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. The median weekly rent figure in Swan Hill was $235, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, comprising primary education (10.7%), secondary education (7.5%), and tertiary education (2.4%).

Swan Hill operates a network of 10 schools educating approximately 2,710 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 969) and balanced educational opportunities. The schools include four primary, four secondary, and two K-12 institutions. As an education hub, the area has 24.1 school places per 100 residents, above the regional average of 14.5, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Swan Hill's public transport analysis shows 56 active stops operating within the area. These include a mix of train and bus services. The system is made up of 26 individual routes that collectively provide 423 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility in Swan Hill is rated as good, with residents typically located 233 meters from their nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 60 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population, which is around 5,570 people. This compares to 46.9% in the rest of Victoria.

Nationally, the average is 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively. 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 64.1% in the rest of Victoria. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 2,318 people, lower than the 24.0% in the rest of Victoria.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill had a lower than average cultural diversity, with 85.1% of its population being citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 50.6% of people in Swan Hill. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which made up 1.9% of the population compared to 0.8% across Rest of Vic.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%). Italian (4.7%) was notably overrepresented in Swan Hill compared to the regional average of 4.0%, as were Vietnamese (1.0% vs 0.7%) and Australian Aboriginal (2.9% vs 2.5%).

Swan Hill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Swan Hill is 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic's figure of 43 but equivalent to Australia's national norm of 38. The age group of 25-34 years shows strong representation at 15.8%, higher than the Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, Swan Hill's population aged 25 to 34 has grown from 14.7% to 15.8%. Conversely, the age group of 45 to 54 has declined from 10.1% to 9.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Swan Hill's age profile will significantly change by 2041. Leading this shift is the 75-84 age group, which is projected to grow by 7%, adding 56 people and reaching a total of 878 from 821. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65+ comprising 69% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 35-44 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.