Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Swan Hill is around 11,253. This reflects an increase of 67 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,186. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,839, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 229 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 88 persons per square kilometer. Swan Hill's growth rate of 0.6% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 0.2%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb of Swan Hill's population is expected to decline by 782 persons by 2041. However, growth is anticipated in specific age cohorts, notably the 35 to 44 age group, which is projected to increase by 89 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Swan Hill had approximately 45 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 226 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 57 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new dwellings is $543,000, indicating developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year saw $20.7 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Swan Hill shows moderately higher development activity, being 25.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This has maintained good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

However, building activity has slowed in recent years. New development consists of 72.0% standalone homes and 28.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 351 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Swan Hill should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Swan Hill ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Swan Hill has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate was just 1.3%.

This rate has remained relatively stable over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In December 2025, 5,517 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. The workforce participation rate was fairly standard at 64.3%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, a low 6.9% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area shows strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 5.1% versus the regional average of 6.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.1%, while labour force decreased by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.2 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Swan Hill, median income is $47,926 and average income is $57,197. This is lower than Regional Vic.'s median income of $50,954 and average income of $62,728. By September 2025, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated median income would be approximately $51,880 and average income $61,916. The 2021 Census ranks Swan Hill's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 28th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 32.9% of residents (3,702 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the metropolitan region's 30.3%. Housing costs allow for retention of 87.8%, but disposable income is below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Swan Hill, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.1% houses and 16.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swan Hill was at 36.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (31.1%) or rented (32.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Swan Hill was $235, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 34.0%, with lone person households making up 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Swan Hill shows that there are currently 56 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a combination of train and bus services. The routes servicing these stops total 16, providing a combined weekly passenger trip count of 367. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 233 meters from their nearest transport stop. As Swan Hill is predominantly residential, most residents commute outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation for these residents at 92%, while walking accounts for 6%.

On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census data, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions, only 6.9% of residents work from home. The service frequency averages out to approximately 52 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~5,570 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 65.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic.. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,318 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic., with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.1% of its population being citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 86.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Swan Hill, comprising 50.6% of people. The most notable overrepresentation was in Other religions, which made up 1.9% of the population compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three groups represented in Swan Hill are Australian at 30.2%, English at 29.2%, and Irish at 9.3%. Notably, Italian ancestry is overrepresented at 4.7% compared to 2.9% regionally, Vietnamese at 1.0% versus 0.2%, and Australian Aboriginal at 2.9% versus 1.4%.

Swan Hill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Swan Hill is 37 years, which is lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 make up 16.2% of the population, a significant proportion compared to other age groups in Swan Hill and Regional Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of the population aged 25-34 has increased from 14.7% to 16.2%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 10.1% to 9.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate notable shifts in Swan Hill's age structure. The number of people aged 45-54 is expected to increase by 62 individuals, rising from 1,024 to 1,087. Notably, the combined population aged 65 and above is projected to account for 63% of total population growth in Swan Hill, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the populations aged 35-44 and 0-4 are expected to decline in size.