Swan Hill

Swan Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Swan Hill's statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated population of around 11,234 as of Nov 2025. This reflected an increase of 48 people from the 2021 Census figure of 11,186 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 10,839, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 222 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 88 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential room for further development. Swan Hill's growth rate of 0.4% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (0.1%), though overall growth remained modest. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to shrink by 783 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, with the 35 to 44 age group projected to increase by 84 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swan Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates approximately 45 new homes approved annually in Swan Hill over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 226 homes. As of FY-26, 45 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new dwellings is $543,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen approximately $20.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Swan Hill shows moderately higher development activity, 25.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although building activity has slowed recently.

New developments consist of 72.0% standalone homes and 28.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 351 people, reflecting Swan Hill's quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, there should be reduced pressure on housing in Swan Hill, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Swan Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 11 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones are Swan Hill Tourism and Cultural Hub, Heirloom Estate, Transforming the Heart of Swan Hill Precinct, and Swan Hill Bridge Replacement. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Swan Hill demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Swan Hill's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate was 1.7%.

This rate is 2.1% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, while workforce participation was 59.8%, slightly higher than the regional average of 57.4%. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Notably, agriculture, forestry & fishing had an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety showed lower representation at 5.1% compared to the regional average of 6.5%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work, indicated by the count of Census working population to local population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Swan Hill's labour force decreased by 4.3%, with employment declining by 2.7%, causing a 1.7 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s employment declined by 0.7% and labour force by 0.6%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swan Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Swan Hill is below the national average. The median income is $47,926 and the average income stands at $57,197. This contrasts with Rest of Vic.'s figures where the median income is $50,954 and the average income is $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Swan Hill would be approximately $51,880 (median) and $61,916 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Swan Hill rank modestly, between the 28th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 32.9% of residents (3,695 people), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 30.3% in the same category. Housing costs are manageable with 87.8% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 32nd percentile.

Swan Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Swan Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 16.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Vic., where 90.7% of dwellings were houses and 9.2% were other types. Home ownership in Swan Hill stood at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.1% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. The median weekly rent in Swan Hill was $235, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Swan Hill's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $235 compared to the national figure of $375.

Swan Hill features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.0% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.0%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Swan Hill fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Swan Hill has 56 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes, collectively facilitating 367 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated good, with residents typically residing 233 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 52 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swan Hill is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Swan Hill faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50%, covering around 5,560 people out of a total population of about 11,120 residents (as of June 2021).

This figure is lower than the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting approximately 9.7% and 9.7% of residents respectively, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in June 2021. Meanwhile, about 65.5% of Swan Hill's population declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.1% across the rest of Victoria. The area has approximately 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (around 2,314 people), which is lower than the 24.0% figure for the rest of Victoria, as per ABS estimates from June 2021.

Swan Hill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Swan Hill's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.1% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 50.6% of Swan Hill's population. Notably, the 'Other' category was overrepresented at 1.9%, compared to 0.8% across Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.2%), English (29.2%), and Irish (9.3%). Italian (4.7%) and Vietnamese (1.0%) were notably overrepresented, while Australian Aboriginal was slightly higher at 2.9%.

Swan Hill's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Swan Hill's median age is 38, which is lower than Victoria's overall figure of 43 but matches Australia's national norm of 38. The age group of 25-34 years old makes up 15.8% of Swan Hill's population, higher than the Rest of Vic.'s percentage. Conversely, the 65-74 age cohort represents 9.7%, which is lower compared to other Victorian regions. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of 25 to 34-year-olds has increased from 14.7% to 15.8%. Meanwhile, the percentage of 45 to 54-year-olds has decreased from 10.1% to 9.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Swan Hill's age profile. Notably, the 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 7%, adding 57 people and reaching a total of 878 from the current 820. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 69% of projected growth. Conversely, the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.