Robinvale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Robinvale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Robinvale's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 3769 people. This figure represents an increase of 29 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3740. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: Robinvale had 3738 residents in June 2024 and gained 16 new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 20 persons per square kilometer. Robinvale's growth rate of 0.8% since the 2021 Census surpassed its SA3 area's decline of 0.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.2% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For unsupported areas, it employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. These projections indicate that Robinvale's population will decrease by 53 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow: notably, the 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 89 people over this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Robinvale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Robinvale averaged approximately nine new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 48 homes. As of FY26, ten approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents arriving per new home in Robinvale was around 0.7 annually between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings in Robinvale is $454,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year, $6.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Relative to other Victorian areas, Robinvale has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 56th percentile nationally, though building activity has accelerated recently. This level is below the national average, suggesting an established area with potential planning limitations. New development consists of 62.0% standalone homes and 38.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing opportunities across price brackets. This marks a significant shift from existing patterns, which are currently 90.0% houses, indicating diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in Robinvale is 401 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. With stable or declining population projections, housing demand pressures in Robinvale should remain relatively low, benefiting potential buyers.

Robinvale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects that could affect the region. Notable ones are Robinvale Riverfront Masterplan, Robinvale Key Worker Accommodation, Robinvale Nature and Adventure Playground Ngiwa Kulaithi, and Nyah West Skate Park Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Robinvale exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Robinvale has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, and an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of June 2025. It has 1,912 residents in work, which is 1.7% below the Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is 53.6%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing (6.2 times the regional average), administrative & support services, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has lower representation at 5.6% versus the regional average of 16.8%. The area may have limited local employment opportunities, as seen by the difference between Census working population and resident population.

Between June 2024 and May 2025, labour force decreased by 4.3%, while employment declined by 3.7%, causing unemployment rate to fall by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment declined by 0.9% and labour force by 0.4%, with a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest Robinvale's employment could grow by approximately 4.0% over five years and 9.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Robinvale's median income among taxpayers is $32,968. The average income in Robinvale during this period was $42,453. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median income was $48,741 with an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Robinvale's median and average incomes would be approximately $36,977 and $47,615 respectively as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Robinvale all fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 29.5% of Robinvale's population (1,111 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 88.8% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 31st percentile.

Robinvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Robinvale, evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.7% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Robinvale was 33.5%, with the remainder being mortgaged (23.0%) or rented (43.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Robinvale was $1,040, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. The median weekly rent figure in Robinvale was $220, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Robinvale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Robinvale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.0% of all households, consisting of 30.4% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 22.4% and group households comprising 8.6%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Robinvale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 13.8%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (19.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education. The area has two schools: Robinvale College and St Mary's School, serving a total of 505 students. Both schools offer integrated K-12 education, providing continuity throughout students' academic journey.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Robinvale has ten active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by eleven routes that together facilitate 110 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is moderate, with residents on average located 429 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages fifteen trips per day, equating to approximately eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

Robinvale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Robinvale. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover rate is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,741 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.0 and 5.5% of residents respectively. A total of 77.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the 64.1% across Rest of Vic.. Robinvale has 14.5% of residents aged 65 and over (544 people), which is lower than the 24.0% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Robinvale is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Robinvale has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.2% of its population born overseas and 48.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Robinvale is Christianity, accounting for 55.2% of the population. Buddhism is notably overrepresented, comprising 15.1%, compared to the Rest of Vic average of 2.4%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (24.6%), Australian (15.6%), and English (14.6%).

The Other group is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.7%, while Australian and English are notably lower than their respective averages of 31.4% and 29.7%. Additionally, Italian (13.3%) and Vietnamese (4.7%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 4.0% and 0.7%, respectively. The representation of Australian Aboriginal is also notably higher at 6.6%, compared to the regional average of 2.5%.

Robinvale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Robinvale's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of Vic average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Robinvale at 18.9%, compared to the Rest of Vic average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 8.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 0-4 age group has grown from 6.1% to 7.8% of Robinvale's population, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 17.7% to 18.9%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 12.1% to 10.2%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 12.3% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling suggests that Robinvale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45-54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 21%, adding 85 residents to reach 494. Meanwhile, both the 35-44 and 15-24 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.