Robinvale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Robinvale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Robinvale's population was approximately 3,740 as per the 2021 Census. By Aug 2025, this had decreased to around 3,735 people, a decline of 5 individuals (0.1%). This change is inferred from ABS estimates showing an estimated resident population of 3,737 in June 2024 and the addition of 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was approximately 20 persons per square kilometer. Compared to the SA3 area which experienced a -1.5% decline since the 2021 census, Robinvale performed better with its 0.1% decrease. Overseas migration contributed around 76.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by this data. Projected demographic shifts indicate an overall population decline from Aug 2025 to 2041, with the area's population expected to shrink by 53 persons by that year. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow; notably, the 45 to 54 age group is projected to expand by 89 people over this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Robinvale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Robinvale has averaged approximately nine new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 48 approvals over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with ten approvals recorded so far in FY26. Over these five years, an average of 0.7 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $677,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26, $6.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. When compared to the Rest of Vic., Robinvale has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 56th percentile nationally for building activity. However, this level is below the national average, suggesting that the area has an established character with potential planning limitations. New development in Robinvale consists of 62% standalone homes and 38% attached dwellings, offering a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives.

This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 90% houses, indicating diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population count per dwelling approval in Robinvale is 401 people, reflecting its quiet and low activity development environment. Given stable or declining population projections, the area should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Robinvale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely influencing the region. Notable ones are Robinvale Riverfront Masterplan, Robinvale Key Worker Accommodation, Robinvale Nature and Adventure Playground Ngiwa Kulaithi, and Nyah West Skate Park Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Robinvale exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Robinvale has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.0%.

In comparison to Rest of Vic., Robinvale's unemployment rate is 1.7% lower at 3.8%, while workforce participation is somewhat below standard at 53.6%. Employment in Robinvale is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, administrative & support, and retail trade. Notably, employment levels in agriculture, forestry & fishing are 6.2 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 5.6% compared to the regional average of 16.8%.

Over a 12-month period ending Jun-25, Robinvale's labour force decreased by 4.3%, and employment declined by 3.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Robinvale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 4.0%% over five years and 9.6% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Robinvale's median income among taxpayers is $32,968, with an average of $42,453. This is below the national average. The Rest of Vic.'s median income is $48,741 and average is $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $36,301 (median) and $46,745 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Robinvale fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 29.5% of the population (1,101 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 88.8% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 31st percentile.

Robinvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Robinvale, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.9% of dwellings were houses while 10.1% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic. had 90.7% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Robinvale stood at 33.5%, with mortgaged properties at 23.0% and rented dwellings at 43.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,040, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,083. The median weekly rent in Robinvale was $220, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $200. Nationally, Robinvale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,040 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $220 compared to the national figure of $375.

Robinvale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.0% of all households, including 30.4% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 22.4% and group households comprising 8.6%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.3.

Robinvale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 13.8%, significantly below the Victorian average of 33.4%. This situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common university qualifications, at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.6% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 19.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education. The area's educational provision includes Robinvale College and St Mary's School, collectively serving 505 students as of the latest data. Both schools offer integrated K-12 education, providing continuity throughout students' academic journey.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Robinvale has ten operational public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by eleven distinct routes, collectively facilitating 110 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents on average situated 429 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages fifteen trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately eleven weekly trips per individual stop.

Robinvale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Robinvale. Both young and old age cohorts saw low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover was found to be extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,725 people). This is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.0 and 5.5% of residents respectively. Seventy-seven point three percent of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.1% across Rest of Vic.. The area has 14.5% of residents aged 65 and over (539 people), which is lower than the 24.0% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Robinvale is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Robinvale's population shows high cultural diversity, with 43.2% born overseas and 48.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Robinvale, comprising 55.2%. Notably, Buddhism represents 15.1%, significantly higher than the Rest of Vic average of 2.4%. In terms of ancestry, 'Other' comprises 24.6%, substantially more than the regional average of 5.7%.

Australian ancestry is at 15.6%, notably lower than the regional average of 31.4%, and English ancestry is at 14.6%, also lower than the regional average of 29.7%. There are notable differences in representation of certain ethnic groups: Italian at 13.3% (vs regional 4.0%), Vietnamese at 4.7% (vs regional 0.7%), and Australian Aboriginal at 6.6% (vs regional 2.5%).

Robinvale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Robinvale's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of Vic. average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of Vic. average, Robinvale has an over-representation of the 25-34 cohort at 18.9%, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 8.8%. Post the 2021 Census, the 0-4 age group grew from 6.1% to 7.8%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 17.7% to 18.9%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 12.1% to 10.2%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 12.3% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling indicates Robinvale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 45-54 cohort projected to grow strongly at 22%, adding 89 residents to reach 494. Meanwhile, both the 35-44 and 15-24 age groups are expected to decrease in number.