Mildura - South

Mildura - South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mildura - South's population is around 17,169 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 761 people (4.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,408 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,689 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 606 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 336 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Mildura - South's 4.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (1.5%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 66.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national regional areas is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 4,745 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 24.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Mildura - South among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Mildura - South has experienced around 122 dwellings receiving development approval per year, totalling 610 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 89 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 1.2 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, though recent data shows this has moderated to 0.6 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting improved supply-demand balance. New properties are constructed at an average value of $291,000. There have also been $38.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Mildura - South records somewhat elevated construction (45.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. Recent construction comprises 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. At around 153 people per approval, Mildura - South reflects a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Mildura - South will gain 4,264 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Mildura - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 19 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Mildura South Neighbourhood Activity Centre, Mildura Sporting Precinct, River Heights Estate, Merbein, and Lake Hawthorn Foreshore Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Mildura - South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Mildura - South features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 1.8%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,253 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.9% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a low 8.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. In contrast, construction employs just 7.2% of local workers, below Regional Vic.'s 10.4%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.3% while labour force decreased by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.3 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.6% and labour force decline of 0.7%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Mildura - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mildura - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Mildura - South SA2's median income among taxpayers is $46,928, with an average of $55,138. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,800 (median) and $59,687 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Mildura - South, between the 28th and 29th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, 33.4% of the population (5,734 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.3% in the same category. After housing, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Mildura - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Mildura - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Mildura - South was lagging that of Regional Vic., at 33.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.0%) or rented (32.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional Vic. average at $1,334, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Mildura - South's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mildura - South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.0% of all households, comprising 26.9% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Mildura - South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (17.7%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (25.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 137 active transport stops operating within Mildura - South, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 21 individual routes, collectively providing 753 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 8.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 107 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Mildura - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Mildura - South faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~8,138 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.0 and 8.5% of residents, respectively, while 65.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (3,153 people), which is lower than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Mildura - South was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mildura - South was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 19.1% of its population born overseas and 18.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Mildura - South is Christianity, which makes up 48.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.7% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Mildura - South are English, comprising 27.3% of the population, Australian, comprising 26.5% of the population, and Other, comprising 8.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 7.4% of Mildura - South (vs 2.9% regionally), Samoan at 0.4% (vs 0.1%) and Greek at 1.2% (vs 0.5%).

Mildura - South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

With a median age of 38, Mildura - South is notably under the Regional Vic. figure of 43 but is equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 15.6% compared to Regional Vic., whereas the 65 - 74 cohort is less prevalent at 9.1%. Following the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted the median age down by 1.1 years to 38. Specifically, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.0% to 14.6% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 14.2% to 15.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 10.0% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.8% to 10.4%. By 2041, Mildura - South is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 35 to 44 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 36%, adding 902 residents to reach 3,409. The 55 to 64 group displays more modest growth at 1%, adding only 9 residents.