Mildura - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Mildura - South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Mildura - South's population was around 16,698 as of Aug 2025. This showed an increase of 290 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,408. The change was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 16,691 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 327 persons per square kilometer. Mildura - South's growth of 1.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 0%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of national regional areas, with Mildura - South expected to increase by 4,745 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 28.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Mildura - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Mildura - South has seen approximately 122 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics records this data on a financial year basis, totalling 610 approvals from FY-21 to FY-25 and 24 so far in FY-26. Over the past five years, an average of 1.2 people moved to the area per dwelling built. This ratio has recently eased to 0.6 people per dwelling over the past two years, reflecting improved supply availability. The average construction value for development projects is $387,000, aligning with regional patterns.

In FY-26, commercial approvals amounting to $38.1 million have been registered, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Mildura - South shows higher construction levels, 45.0% above the regional average per person over five years, offering balanced buyer choice while supporting property values. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The population density is around 153 people per approval. Future projections estimate Mildura - South to add 4,735 residents by 2041. Construction pace is keeping up with projected growth, but increasing competition for properties is expected as the population grows.

Mildura - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 20 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Mildura South Neighbourhood Activity Centre, Mildura Sporting Precinct, Lake Hawthorn Foreshore Development, and Deakin Avenue Large Format Retail Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.9%, Mildura - South has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Mildura - South has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 2.9% as of June 2025. There are 8,137 residents employed in the area, which is 0.9% lower than Rest of Vic.'s unemployment rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is at par with Rest of Vic., standing at 57.4%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. Construction has a limited presence in the area with 7.2% employment compared to the regional average of 10.4%.

The area may have limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population numbers. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.1%, with employment decreasing by 3.3% in Mildura - South, resulting in a fall of 0.7 percentage points in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from Sep-25 shows that VIC's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7% compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that Mildura - South's employment could grow by approximately 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Mildura - South had a median taxpayer income of $45,758 and an average of $53,689. Nationally, these figures are lower than the averages of $48,741 and $60,693 for Rest of Vic. respectively. As of March 2025, estimates based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022 suggest median income would be approximately $50,384 and average income $59,117. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Mildura - South rank modestly, between the 29th and 29th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows 33.4% of individuals (5,577 people) earning within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to the broader area at 30.3%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Mildura - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mildura - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.6% houses and 15.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 85.6% houses and 14.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mildura - South stood at 33.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.0% and rented ones at 32.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,334, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $1,283. The median weekly rent figure was $300, while Non-Metro Vic.'s was $265. Nationally, Mildura - South's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mildura - South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.0% of all households, including 26.9% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.0%, with lone person households at 27.8% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Mildura - South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high at 28.8%, comprising primary education (10.8%), secondary education (7.6%), and tertiary education (2.7%).

Six schools operate in Mildura - South, educating approximately 2,587 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 952). The educational mix includes two primary, two secondary, and two K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mildura - South has 125 active public transport stops operating, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 individual routes that collectively facilitate 626 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically situated approximately 217 meters from their nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 89 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mildura - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Mildura South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 7,848 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues impact 9.0% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.5%. About 65.7% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 65.1% across Rest of Vic. The area has 18.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,117 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Mildura - South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mildura-South showed cultural diversity with 19.1% overseas-born population and 18.6% using a language other than English at home, as of the date provided. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 48.4%. The 'Other' religious category had a higher representation in Mildura-South at 1.7%, compared to Rest of Vic's 1.0%.

For ancestry, the top groups were English (27.3%), Australian (26.5%), and Other (8.8%). Notably, Italian ethnicity was overrepresented at 7.4% versus regional 5.7%, Samoan at 0.4% versus 0.2%, and Australian Aboriginal at 3.3% compared to 3.4%.

Mildura - South's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Mildura - South has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of Vic figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 15.1% of the population compared to Rest of Vic., while the 65-74 cohort represents 9.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has increased from 12.0% to 14.0%, and the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 11.8% to 10.5%. The 55-64 group has also declined from 11.8% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Mildura - South's age profile. The 35-44 group is projected to grow by 46%, adding 1,069 people and reaching a total of 3,409 from the current figure of 2,339. Conversely, the 55-64 group will experience modest growth of 1%, with an increase of only 12 residents.